Cheltenham Festival
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Didn't think too much about this one's performance when she initially won at Sandown, but the last few days as I've been steadily working my way through the form for the big races, she's really began to stand out.
She jumped impeccably that day. Only made two slight mistakes at the 1st and 3rd last. Set strong fractions in the conditions (soft, close to heavy) and just kept piling it on. Form of that race is rock solid. Beat Irish Saint well, albeit receiving 11 pounds. Irish Saint ran up to form, IMO of course, that day. Prior to that, he'd had two good wins and a very solid 3rd, where he was perhaps a touch unlucky to lose. Either way, I think he's a 150 horse minimum, quite probably a 155 animal over 2 miles 4.
Using 150 as a marker for Irish Saint. She received 11 pounds = 139. However, the ease with which she beat IS suggests to me that she had around a stone in hand of Irish Saint. I think that's fair given the distance, comparative ease and also the fact that she did all the donkey work off a strong pace. Suggests she's a 153 or so animal at least, quite possibly a 155+ sort depending on just how good IS is. Given she'll get 8 pounds in the JLT, this would suggest that you'll need a 160+ horse minimum on the basis of the forum. Vautour, Apache Stronghold, Valseur Lido and Ptit Zig all have the potential to be that good or better, but they still have to prove it on the day. I also think GDB will be able to get a nice lead and set the rhythm.
The only other positive factor I'll outline is that she drifted terribly on the day of her victory suggesting she hadn't been wowing them at home prior to winning at Sandown. Suggests there could be more improvement available?
The negative? The ground is the major one - she's never raced on better than soft. Can't find reference being made to whether she'll handle the likely better ground - I guess we'll have to take it on trust. She's also getting 3 pounds less at Cheltenham than she did against Ptit Zig.
Regardless, I think 14/1 looks a stonker of a bet and that, fingers crossed, she'll be bang there come March 12th.
She jumped impeccably that day. Only made two slight mistakes at the 1st and 3rd last. Set strong fractions in the conditions (soft, close to heavy) and just kept piling it on. Form of that race is rock solid. Beat Irish Saint well, albeit receiving 11 pounds. Irish Saint ran up to form, IMO of course, that day. Prior to that, he'd had two good wins and a very solid 3rd, where he was perhaps a touch unlucky to lose. Either way, I think he's a 150 horse minimum, quite probably a 155 animal over 2 miles 4.
Using 150 as a marker for Irish Saint. She received 11 pounds = 139. However, the ease with which she beat IS suggests to me that she had around a stone in hand of Irish Saint. I think that's fair given the distance, comparative ease and also the fact that she did all the donkey work off a strong pace. Suggests she's a 153 or so animal at least, quite possibly a 155+ sort depending on just how good IS is. Given she'll get 8 pounds in the JLT, this would suggest that you'll need a 160+ horse minimum on the basis of the forum. Vautour, Apache Stronghold, Valseur Lido and Ptit Zig all have the potential to be that good or better, but they still have to prove it on the day. I also think GDB will be able to get a nice lead and set the rhythm.
The only other positive factor I'll outline is that she drifted terribly on the day of her victory suggesting she hadn't been wowing them at home prior to winning at Sandown. Suggests there could be more improvement available?
The negative? The ground is the major one - she's never raced on better than soft. Can't find reference being made to whether she'll handle the likely better ground - I guess we'll have to take it on trust. She's also getting 3 pounds less at Cheltenham than she did against Ptit Zig.
Regardless, I think 14/1 looks a stonker of a bet and that, fingers crossed, she'll be bang there come March 12th.
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Better to take NRNB as Mullins in his stable tour said she's not sure to go at Chelt, maybe Fairyhouse or France, and if she goes at Chelt he said either RSA or JLT so make sure NRNB. Don't see any reasons why she won't handle the better ground but thats factored in her price which is a nice e/w bet considering her form this season, good luck!
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No way Irish Saint ran to form that day. Looked laboured throughout.
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she destroyed a very respectable field. hope she goes. they'll have to run to 160+ to have any chance of beating her i agree. not having that irish saint didn't run his race and there have been no excuses since from the nicholls camp. even if he did what about the other three 142+ rated horses who couldn't lay up with her!?
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Agreed. And there was no messing either - just ground them into submission.
The issue of course is that the JLT has the potential to be one of the strongest ever Novices Chases held at Cheltenham. I genuinely believe the first four in the market are all 160+ horses but I also think that GDB could be similar with her allowance and, unlike the others, will likely get a clear sight at the fences and be able to set the rhythm. 14/1 is also much the best price of the top 5, hence why I signaled it up. Probably the race I'm most looking forward tbh. |
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Sure W Mullins said in his stable our that this race was the aim. Mind she's been drifting last few days so perhaps he's had another change of mind!!
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Runs in Auteuil tomorrow
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never in doubt.
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how is the prize money in france so good? they just won nearly 50k for a grade 3 hurdle
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PMU
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Its not controlled by the four pound/euro layers.
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Powers Gold Cup her next target.
http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=115428&headline=Berlais-lands-Auteuil-prize |
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"Better to take NRNB as Mullins in his stable tour said she's not sure to go at Chelt, maybe Fairyhouse or France"
hopefully you listened to my advice of NRNB although it should read and not or.. its sick that a talent like her misses Chelt.. Mullins Mullins.. |
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Tintin WM is only running 50 horses at Cheltenham do you want him to bring over the whole stable and ruin half of them.
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funny storythat Mullins shared on his stable tour(i can't find the youtube video), they brought a wrong horse for the festival last year
 and 2 years ago they left one home  |
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Superb bit of placing imo, she just won 47k for a Grade 3 in France (easily), as opposed to running for 68k in what looks one of the strongest races of the week.
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its sick that a talent like her misses Chelt
Sure connections are gutted. They must have have had a terrible weekend at Auteuil. |
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I'm sure they are and had
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I took NRNB and had plenty on yesterday, so quite happy tbh.
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