Cheltenham Festival
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Hard to explain away his run at Cheltenham, first time up this season. Simply Ned put him away , can't have him myself.
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Tongue tie
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He's been without doubt the best two mile chaser in the country this season.
If you can forgive his previous festival form then he looks a fair price to me. He is just another reason why PN is the best trainer around IMO. He has such a knack of improving horses & is always prepared to try something new. |
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As a matter of interest - How many festival winners has he had since Ruby left?
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Salubrious two years ago & Lac Fontana last year are the only two that spring to mind.
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Yes - still all races are worth winning at the Festival
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Plenty of near misses, too. Southfield Theatre where Jacob was slaughtered is one such example.
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And that close fourth in the Gold Cup
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proof that winners at fez should be celebrated
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Quite agree, Howdi. And I do think PN is an amazing trainer - just look at his saturday record this season. My point was that he is not necessarily one to get carried away with at the Festival. I think he used to have a great help when Ruby was onside - knew where he stood with the irish horses just from gauging Walsh's feelings
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fair point Delsie
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Conversely, Ruby will not have as strong a handle on the UK horses as he is not riding over here anywhere near as often.
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Fair point, sint - but WPM sends over the odd few to get a handle on things, so he does. Mind you, Casey is often sent to ride some as he's considered such a good judge. Ruby's semi retired these days, don't you think? Sat on his jack watching Nicholls horses on RUK I expect!
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Did Sire De Grugy lose first time out last season to Kid Cassidy? I would agree though Dodging Bullets has the best 2m form having won the only 2m G1 race the Tingle Creek and also another recognized trial for this at Ascot. The concern would be there wasn't a lot between first to fourth in the Tingle Creek and while the best horse won, it's very reasonable to think with different conditions the finishing order would be different.
I'm also put off by Twinlight letting the form down from Ascot a couple of times and Dodging Bullets not being at his best in the Spring. In such an open renewal, it's quite reasonable to expect the race could well still be wide open by the last and I simply cannot see Dodging Bullets battling his way past horses in a competitive finish. |
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Hard to explain away his run at Cheltenham, first time up this season. Simply Ned put him away , can't have him myself.
Don't think its hard to explain at all, Nicholls never has them tee'd up fto, particularly noticeable this season, and has been pointed out the tongue tie was left off. |
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Well apparently PN thinks Mr Mole carries his best chance.The Clarence House is the key if they ran to a mark of less than 160 then DB has to improve again.
Does DB look like a Cheltenham horse? |
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What I cant understand from his backers are how they expect him to finish ahead of Sprinter Sacre? Im talking strictly on Ascot form.
Fair enough SS may not be the horse he was and I likely wont be backing him unless hes a stupid price in the morning ala SDG last year. But in relation to DB, he was beaten 2l by him at Ascot given a very sympathetic ride. SS was likely fairly fit, but you have to expect him to improve slightly for his second run in 15 months, his jumping to be sharper, and Barry to be more vigorous. There is also the fact that he bled, which may not be a huge factor but something to be aware of. Now you are moving to a track DB hasnt shown a liking for, and better ground which SS will appreciate more. Maybe im missing something but how could DB fans be confident of beating SS in Chelt when he was all out to beat SS last time by 2l, and all the above factors are now applicable? Unless SS falls or bombs out completely, I cant see a way he doesnt turn that Ascot form around |
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Dodging Bullets is a man now, Whether he is good enough to win a QMCC I don't know but this season he has looked physically stronger and more mentally prepared to dig in for a win, Think he should be fav on this seasons form so anyone who likes his chances should just keep backing him.
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GI MAC • February 22, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
Hard to explain away his run at Cheltenham, first time up this season. Simply Ned put him away , can't have him myself. Don't think its hard to explain at all, Nicholls never has them tee'd up fto, particularly noticeable this season, and has been pointed out the tongue tie was left off....champion chasers dont get beat by simply ned. |
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Didn't he beat Sprinter by three lengths and whilst we know that was how good Sprinter was on the day we don't know how much DB could have found had Sprinter come at him after the last.
Where has Nicholls said he thinks Mr Mole will beat him? He was reported a couple of weeks ago as saying that he thinks DB should be favourite. |
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well i hope PN is wrong because Im layting two balls deep DB And Vautour.
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Agree re DB Howdi. Not wanna lay Vatour though. Would rather take on Cue Card & Kings Palace
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^^ agree with Cuey too.
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Sprinter Sacre might come back to close to his best but Henderson's chasers are still running really poorly so I can't have him on my mind. For me Sire de Grugy is now the likely winner but I have a free 10/1 bet on DB having layed him off recently. The danger is Mr Mole-the latest quote from Paul Nichols is that he can't split him and DB. That may be diplomatic speak but Mr Mole is improving fast.
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Sprinter Sacre might come back to close to his best but Henderson's chasers are still running really poorly so I can't have him on my mind. For me Sire de Grugy is now the likely winner but I have a free 10/1 bet on DB having layed him off recently. The danger is Mr Mole-the latest quote from Paul Nichols is that he can't split him and DB. That may be diplomatic speak but Mr Mole is improving fast.
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PFN can't split Zarkandar and Saphir De Rheu, too, apparently.
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Nor can the market.
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Trainers often say things so as not to upset owners,fair enough.
I think in these cases hes probably fairly truthful to be honest. Certainly the book says Zark and SDR are closely matched,and looking at Mr Mole lately I can certainly see why he would say that he cant split them. If a gun was put to his head he would probably side with DB,but it could well be that they aint that far apart right now. |
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I agree Bud but I will wait to back Mr Mole on the day in case AP is not available as he is key to the improvement.
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He knows, Budde.
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Well if he don't know Sint,no chance any of us do!!
Thing is with these quirky types like Mr Mole,they normally have a fair amount of talent. Fwiw,i suspect Nicholls knows the talent hes got and if he can get him to produce that talent without what can go with it,then he has a serious horse,and one that can at least match DB. May be wrong of course. |
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Still think Mr Mole has a fair bit to find with the principles, despite beating SDG last time, as it was proved that wasn't the real SDG and Uxizandre has now put two shockers in now.
I think the Mole is plenty short enough....although he is improving. |
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GI MAC • February 22, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
Hard to explain away his run at Cheltenham, first time up this season. Simply Ned put him away , can't have him myself. Don't think its hard to explain at all, Nicholls never has them tee'd up fto, particularly noticeable this season, and has been pointed out the tongue tie was left off....champion chasers dont get beat by simply ned. who said he was a Champion Chaser? |
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7/1 limited time at Ladbrokes Dodging Bullets
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I'd rather have a kick in the nuts than back this horse in the Champion Chase. Just watched Nicolls 5 to follow and he didn't get a mention. Hmmmmmm!!
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Dodging Bullets !!!!
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Don't know how many fans are left or what to make of him this season but 16/1 E/w today looks a play considering the good ground he'll get and the Nicholls factor in trainers championship.
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