Cheltenham Festival
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will he pull and reef like a 2 year old and have nothing left when they turn for home?
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be seriosly worried about him coming up the hill,
sensible thing to wait for aintree and run against beaten up truimph hurdle also runs but wouldnt they wouldnt be the first to be sucked into the glamour and glitz of the festival, however trainer seems to have head screwed on and owner seemed to suggest she leaves decisions to him. |
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It was a very taking performance but on a line through the fourth on his running at Doncaster he has a lot to make up on Peace And Co.
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Trainer being cautious Jockey seemed desperate to go though. I think they'll go looks to have a great chance in my eyes.
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What if JP bought it?
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He doesn't have anything to make up with P and C on a line through the 3rd. Both beat him 14 lengths.
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On at 50/1 so naturally I want him to run, asked the guy who give me this tip was there a chance he wouldn't run and instead wait for Aintree, the quote back was there's to much on at big prices not to run.
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On at 50/1 so naturally I want him to run, asked the guy who give me this tip was there a chance he wouldn't run and instead wait for Aintree, the quote back was there's to much on at big prices not to run.
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Most exciting horse in the race for me. I think they'll run
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Shaping up to be the best Triumph ever! Cant remember so many exciting horses and a renewal with so much depth...
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He doesn't have anything to make up with P and C on a line through the 3rd. Both beat him 14 lengths.
That could be construed as a fair point wellchief (although not strictly accurate as I think the third was giving Beltor weight) so a question if I may: Do you think two miles one around Cheltenham or 2 miles at Kempton would be most likely to show the third in the best light? I don't think he's the most reliable yardstick for whatever reason but everything about that horse suggests to me he should be better over further. But for sure it was an exceptionally promising performance and I'd put it on a par with Hargam's at Musselborough. |
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Fair response Eeternal, didn't realise about the weight difference. Not sure what would suit the Henderson one best to be honest; haven't paid too much attention on him to make an opinion to be honest.
I do think Beltor had a lot more in hand over him than Peace and Co, but as you say, not a reliable benchmark. I'd have Beltor and Peace and Co at very similar levels, but Peace and Co's Donny run was something else though. My only worry if that was a one off, and although a middling race last time, I was pretty underwhelmed with him at trials day. I'd be happy with a 10's voucher on P and C, but at the current prices has to be Beltor for me. I still think 8's and 9's is quite big. |
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Middling = muddling
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I'd take a view that's about his price but that P@C should be about 7-2. We know Hargam acts at Cheltenham which is a factor in cconsiderations. You'd imagine that Top Notch would be suited by more of a stamina test at Cheltenham. There's no reason to suppose Beltor won't act at Cheltenham but he's yet to do it so that's a consideration.
I think I made the point at the time but in isolation P@C's performance last time wasn't the kind which should have seen him shorten. Granted Karezak is fairly reliable and he along with Bivouac were the two who seemed to conserve energy by settling when there was little pace on during the first half mile and of course P@C gave him weight but that performance didn't suggest he was a stone better horse than Karezak. On the other hand I personally think the horse has so much basic speed that I've made the point that it put me in mind of The New One getting beaten at Cheltenham on trials day by At Fishers Cross over The Neptune distance. He just got outstayed on ground too soft for him. My view is that ground was very tiring and not the best to show either P@C's lightening speed over his obstacles or his basic speed. So to cruise up as he did going to the last reinforced my earlier view from Doncaster that he is a very serious horse. My worry is that having taken that view and being confident that you don't tend to see another four year old able to put up the kind of performance he is capable of in the same season I am now slightly worried that there may well be three contenders who possibly could in Hargam, Beltor and Top Notch and that does slightly worry me. |
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Specifically on Bivouac he's related on both sides to quite a number of horses which are/were stayers.
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Hargam worked today - Peace & Co 5/2 with Paddy
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Fair points again. Yeah, it is looking like a top quality renewal - I've backed three in it, where I normally only back two in a race.
All of the top four look like they will appreciate good ground and a fast pace, so if we get that, there won't be any hard luck stories at the end. With the juviniles it's hard to guage just how good they are before the Triumph, because that's when ultimately the gun is put to their head. Based on their preps, P and Co could running near 80% of his ability, where Hargam might only be at 50% or vice-versa etc. With so little form to go on, and because there are 5 or 6 where we don't know were their ability will end, its such a tough race to get right. I think the market has got the top four probably in the right order, (although I may have put Beltor second fav over Hargam), but then Top Notch fans might argue he should be shorter! So many questions that will only be answered on the day. This for me is the race of the meeting now. |
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Top notch should be shorter!!
 Yeh,I'm on Hargam and Top Notch,but have to say that Beltor has put a right spanner in the works.As if PaC weren't bad enough!! You right chief,darn good race this and pretty high on quality I think time will prove. |
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Ruby Walsh gave Beltor a good mention the other day saying he's a good e/w bet at the prices
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If you put a gun to my head the one I'd discount from the four is Top Notch and it would be reluctantly because under normal circumstances he'd be the one I'd be looking to have on my side. You can take a view with him that he probably hasn't got the gears but he is the grinder out of the four. In an ordinary year you'd take the grinder over the speed horse. The difference this year is that you have three speed horses and I'm betting out of those that at least one of them has the combination of the requisite speed and stamina needed to defeat Top Notch. Doesn't really matter to some extent which one because I think one of them will therefore I can't back Top Notch as a result.
As it happens I've taken a view early enough and I'm sticking to it. It won't make me rich but it'll be a nice earner if P@C is as good as I thought. I don't tend to back three and four in a race. |
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Agreed that this race is looking a cracking affair. Really taken with Beltor's run at Kempton,still pulling the jockey's arms out turning for home
Have not reason to think his stamina is suspect,being out of Authorized who looks likes turning into a top NH sire A stronger pace may well make him settle a bit better. Worry for me is that hasn't raced left-handed over hurdles but happy to take a chance on him |
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If this was trained by one of the big guns got to think this would be much shorter.
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Pretty disappointed with Beltor today - no idea if anything was wrong, and Aintree may suit him better, but I think I just got carried away with his Adonis run. See no reason whatsoever why he could ever turn the form round with the front 3.
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he cud do sumfing wiv the form if they put a proper jock on top, he neva gave it a chance was 2 worried shiitting himseldf going so quick about falling if u was race again
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Jockey never put the horse in the race. Most disappointing.
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going back to the flat.
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