Cheltenham Festival

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19 Feb 15 11:41
Date Joined: 06 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 618 | Blogger: HaylingBilly's blog
Looking at the top of the market this looks like it could cut up considerably and to me could leave three horses very clear at head of the market - Sego Success, Very Wood and The Young Master. Am making an assumption here that Don Poli will be Gigginstown Number 1 RSA horse based on (1) Mullins feedback yesterday (2) looking at betfair prices for Very Wood in RSA. If this assumption is correct plus Wounded Warrior stated preferred targets is RSA that leaves a considerable gap between the three above and the rest. Based on the fact (1) this is Sego Success only entry and is trained by last years winning trainer with similar prep ref Warwick (2) Very Wood's recent return to form added to the fact he won AB last year and if Don Poli is RSA bound then Very Wood is highly likely to be NH Chase bound (3) The Young Master looks 50/50 between here and RSA I reckon a decent EW bet on both Very Wood and Sego Success looks a good option. Am I talking sense or have I just got Festival Fever ?

Don Poli 9/2                      
Very Wood 7/1            
Sego Success 38/5            
Wounded Warrior 18/1   
The Young Master 54/10   
Cogry 19/1                    
The Job Is Right 19/1   
Vroum Vroum Mag 27/1 (Unlikely to come to Cheltenham)
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Report rogerthebutler February 19, 2015 12:00 PM GMT
Just had a preliminary look at this race and I'll be interested to see what JOCI Club comes up with (and certainly bow to his efforts on the trends front) I like the look of APACHE JACK at big odds, if this is his target.

Couldn't bet at this stage with targets up in the air though.

Jockey bookings are always interesting for this race too.
Report Rathgorman82 February 19, 2015 12:14 PM GMT
Not enough history on trends in its current format to formulate sound criteria IMO, although one spanning all eras is that 6yo's struggle big time simply because of the demands of the race, ie 4 miles over fences at a sound pace. Tricky Trickster the only 6yo to prevail since 1990.
Report rogerthebutler February 19, 2015 12:45 PM GMT

Plenty of 6 year olds at the head of the market too.

Makes you think....
Report shockster February 19, 2015 1:45 PM GMT
I've had a little go here on Grand Vision 50/1 shot withe the bookies, but last time was only beat 2 3/4L by Sego Success(vying for favouritism w/out Don Poli) after making a mistake 3 out.  Also has good festival form, was 3rd in the Albert Bartlett only beat 3L by Brindisi Breeze.  Has been entered for the 2 3m+ Hcps which is on the down side but overpriced IMO and is bound to set off much much shorter if taking this option.  As mentioned plenty of doubts about the Favs.
Report shockster February 25, 2015 1:33 PM GMT
Meade: Very Wood lost it but he started to buzz a month and we knew we had him back. His owner is keen to go for the RSA.

Meade: It is likely Very Wood and Wounded Warrior will be split up.
Report shockster February 25, 2015 1:39 PM GMT
Looks like Giggs going to go Don Poli & Very Wood RSA and Wounded Warrior 4m NH Chase.   I'd say that gives them best chance of winning both.  Wounded Warrior for my AP bets comes back into play, but has the 6 year old stat to overcome.
Report delsie777 February 25, 2015 1:44 PM GMT
that's really surprising considering the amount of money for Very Wood in the NH Chase lately
Report benkneale03 February 25, 2015 3:41 PM GMT
I was surprised by how very wood ended up shorter than WW for the 4 miler. WW had form not far off the best novice form in ireland. Very wood's was far more fluid form.

Reckon it was more hype after a past festival winner had returned to form.
Report sintonian February 25, 2015 7:22 PM GMT
It was because Noel Meade indicated after his recent win he'd run in the 4 mile race, with WW going to the RSA. Now they appear to have changed minds.
Report festivalfanatic February 25, 2015 7:39 PM GMT
Don't believe Meade has changed his mind at all sint, more Gigginstown telling him what they want. Despite this apparently being in the public domain, the prices don't yet reflect the fact, so maybe it isn't a done deal.

Meade said that WW was still a bit weak, which makes his preference for the RSA all the more difficult to understand. I think he will go very close in the 4 miler and if The Young Master elects to run in the RSA, will probably be favourite.
Report buddeliea February 25, 2015 8:56 PM GMT

can I ask where you got the info about WWarrior and VWood mate,its quiet important for me.
Report shockster February 25, 2015 9:03 PM GMT
Budd it was 2 separate tweets early this afternoon.  Sorry can't remember the source of the tweet.
Report buddeliea February 25, 2015 9:11 PM GMT
ok, thanks mate
Report shockster February 25, 2015 9:15 PM GMT
Here's another from this afternoon

@CeltenhamZone   O'Leary seems very keen on running Very Wood in the RSA. Interesting to see how this pans out with WPM & Don Poli.
Report shockster February 25, 2015 9:16 PM GMT
Report HaylingBilly February 25, 2015 9:17 PM GMT
I am hoping Noel is allowed to stick to his original plan which was WW to RSA. Not because I have any money on that but because that would then mean Very Wood is in 4 miler and as stated in OP that is where my money is.
Report benkneale03 February 25, 2015 10:42 PM GMT
Meade has given a stable tour of a few to ATR. Interestingly said WW would not run on good ground but similar to the above quotes that VW likely RSA and they'd be split up.
Report festivalfanatic February 25, 2015 10:55 PM GMT
Sort of understand Gigginstown's logic here. Both DP and VW are battle hardened Cheltenham campaigners who will be well suited by the attrition of the RSA. WW may well be left with a fairly soft option in the NH Chase and he does boast the second best staying novice form in Ireland after DP. They have the added bonus that because he isn't trained by WPM, they can  employ the services of a competent amateur.
Report nocturnal February 26, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
FF...great name btw
Meade...."the only thing certain re the 4 miler is that Nina Carberry will ride",on sporting life interview.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2015 6:51 AM GMT
Ok,that's the only thing certain,so on that basis running plans for the horses are up in the air still.
Have to just wait and see.
Report shockster February 26, 2015 9:35 AM GMT
Have been trying to find out on Twitter about Very Wood and Wounded Warrior and CV (on here) has read that O'Leary wants to go RSA with Very Wood.

Nothing concrete but I wasn't dreaming it.
Report stevo1 February 26, 2015 9:53 AM GMT
Be surprised if placed in RSA tbh.
Report shockster February 26, 2015 10:04 AM GMT
This just my opinion and no fact behind it, but I think Don Poli is there No1 for RSA and Very Wood looks like back up instead of Wounded Warrior.  I can only assume they believe Wounded Warrior has a better chance than Very Wood in the 4m NH Chase and that is where he will go.

It suits me if I'm right so maybe it's wishful thinking but this sounds like Gigginstown plan.  Nina Carberry will ride whichever runs in the 4miler.
Report shockster February 26, 2015 10:17 AM GMT

This was published at 17.46 last night and says Wounded Warrior 4 Mile NH Chase but it also says Apache Stronghold RSA!!!!!!!!!!
Report delsie777 February 26, 2015 11:28 AM GMT
Meade is on ATR saying likely plans are

VW - 4 miler

Don't know where this other stuff came from
Report HaylingBilly February 26, 2015 12:12 PM GMT
delsie777 - that was certainly Meade's original stated plan but recent news filtering through via numerous sources (reliability unsure) and quotes on here has suggested Gigginstown would make changes. Was he on ATR "live" today making those statements ref running plans for WW, AS and VW ?

I am hoping he sticks to the original plan !! Grin
Report delsie777 February 26, 2015 12:28 PM GMT
Recorded yesterday I think - certainly quite plain what his wishes are but the most important thing to stress was that he quite categorically stated that nothing was finalised. With Gigginstown multi stable firepower, I feel certain that this is the case. and unlikely it will be so until final decs. Probably best to take these rumours and quotes with a pinch of salt and trust your own judgement. Then all you can do is hope their judgement is as good as yours!
Report shockster February 26, 2015 1:18 PM GMT

This was published today but is word for word same as the express.   All very strange.
Report festivalfanatic February 26, 2015 1:29 PM GMT
Think the Star and Express are owned by the same company, so probably just the same piece of crap journalism as far as AS is concerned. Confirmed target JLT according to Meade on the RP website this morning.
Report Tucho February 26, 2015 5:58 PM GMT
More confusion if you want some, I read this in the Coral Champions club email today.

While Road To Riches is the headline horse for Meade, the trainer has a strong squad travelling over including the useful novice chase trio Apache Stronghold, Wounded Warrior and Very Wood, winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last season. Meade says: “Apache has been running well all the time. At Christmas everything went very well in the Topaz where he arrived to win and went past Don Poli but just got outstayed over three miles. We brought him back to the shorter trip of two-and-a-half miles last time and he was good over that which is why we’re looking to the JLT [Novices’ Chase] for him.

“I think you need to stay further to win that race anyway and I think he does. It’s a very good race but it’s Cheltenham and there are good horses in every race. “At the moment we’re learning towards Very Wood going for the [National Hunt Chase] and Wounded Warrior going for the RSA Chase but that could change. I’m not saying that’s set in stone and one will go for one race and the other for the other race. “Very Wood won at Cheltenham last year which was very good and he started off well over fences before losing his way completely and I’m not sure why. He bounced back well and since he won the last day, I’ll say one thing for him, he seems to be in tremendous form. He’s in even better form than before he went to Navan.”
Report HaylingBilly February 26, 2015 6:16 PM GMT
Tucho - thanks. As stated in OP I am hoping that is the way it falls with Meade's horses. Definitely pocket talking !!!!
Report zilzal1 February 26, 2015 9:50 PM GMT
According to twitter, Cooper, at a preview says Very Wood goes NH...WW Goes RSA as does Don Poli.....
Report HaylingBilly February 26, 2015 10:05 PM GMT
Music to my ears………...
Report HaylingBilly February 28, 2015 10:22 AM GMT
Latest betting suggests my OP, for once, may be starting to take shape. A large gap between the top two and those likely to run. I love the Festival !! 
Very Wood 24/5           
Sego Success 5/1
Don Poli 57/5 (RSA most likely)           
Wounded Warrior 20/1 (RSA most likely)   
The Young Master 29/1 (RSA most likely)   
Cogry 71/5                   
The Job Is Right 88/5   
Vroum Vroum Mag 27/1
Report shockster February 28, 2015 10:51 AM GMT
Yes looks very much like Very Wood is heading here and NOT Wounded Warrior which is poor for me.  That's Ante Post betting Whoops

I mentioned on another thread about Grand Vision for this and 50/1 NRNB seems huge to me. Was beaten over 2L by Sego Success (the Fav for this) last time but is 10 times the price.  He is the only horse entered by Colin Tizzard so I should think he will run even though he is entered in the Hcp on the 1st day (won't get in) and the Kim Muir (Tizzard has 5 entered).  Add to the fact he finished 3rd when he ran in the Albert Bartlett behind Brindisi Breeze and Boston Bob shows he acts at the festival.

Can't say he's going to win but I suspect he will start much shorter when running plans are known and much better than a 50/1 shot.
Report Tory February 28, 2015 9:56 PM GMT
Cause of causes has been confirmed for the 4 miler. He misses 'top 2' on one of last 2 starts stat and he also hasn't won over 3m, but was 2nd at Chelt last yr over 25f. He'll be 2nd highest horse in the race if Don poli doesn't show up and is 25/1 with BV. It's a 3 horse race for me - sego success, very wood and cause of causes
Report Leonardo February 28, 2015 10:04 PM GMT
I backed Cause of Causes too once he was a confirmed runner.Like you say race will cut up a bit and he's JP's only runner in a race he likes to target.25/1 won't last long I think!
Report delsie777 February 28, 2015 10:05 PM GMT
Thanks for that news, Tory. I think he is an absolutely knocking eachway bet. I think Nina Carberry is booked for Very Wood who I think is a worthy favourite - so a good jockey booking might see the price go. It's Elliot and JP - any ideas? Jamie Codd?
Report Tory February 28, 2015 10:11 PM GMT
Class really is outing in this race now. Last 4yrs top rated has finished 1,1,1,2. I was on shotgun paddy last year and had be not smashed the last fence, it would read 1,1,1,1.

Not sure what the British handicapper will do with the Irish in terms of giving them a rating, but very wood and cause of causes will Defo be the top 2 in the race - assuming that don poli goes RSA.

I've backed very wood at 10/1 and 5/1 today, and sego success at 7/1 and 6/1. Picked up cause of causes at 25/1 after the news came out.

Utterly convinced I've got the race sewn up.
Report delsie777 February 28, 2015 10:15 PM GMT
And you will stay that way, Tory - right upto about 4.30 a week on Tuesday!
Report Tory February 28, 2015 10:17 PM GMT
This race also brings back a very happy memory for me.

Me and my mate a massive hurricane fly fans - the sorts who have the scarfs etc. In 2012 when he lost to ROR @ 4/6 we went out in cheltenham after racing and actually got a bit of stick from some of the of idiots around - calling him a pig etc and we almost got in a fight over it with one idiot.

We were in Club 21 and a bloke came over and insisted he bought us some drinks. He said it was great that we were still wearing the scarfs and that he owned a horse which would win the next day. He was the main shareholder in T43.

I'd already backed it but following his chat, and a lot of drink, we smashed into it that night at 6 or 7 to 1. Went off at 5/1 and held off Harry the Viking.

Wasn't so much the money won but the fact that this bloke sought is out in the bar, spent a good hour with us and was a true gent
Report betilyerded February 28, 2015 10:29 PM GMT
cause of causes should have won the Kim Muir last year but for a mistake at the last and has to be of interest given they have decided to go this route BUT 0 from 10 over fences and looked a non stayer in the Irish National. Does this mean JP has the 3m mile handicap already sewn up?
Report walllace007 February 28, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
WPM will want to give Patrick every chance at a win so Perfect Gentleman should not be discounted either.
Report delsie777 February 28, 2015 11:15 PM GMT
I agree about Perfect Gentleman but if WPM really wants to give him his best chance then he has to commit Vroum Vroum Mag to the race. Then we'd have a proper race.
Report Cash Is King February 28, 2015 11:18 PM GMT
If WPM thought Perfect Gentleman and Vroum Vroum Mag had decent chances of giving his son Patrick a win in the race he wouldn't be digging his heels in so hard over Don Poli.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2015 7:24 AM GMT
would he ride Don Poli then??
Report Arklearkle March 1, 2015 1:55 PM GMT
Not sure Perfect Gentleman is much good tbh. I know some of you like Very Wood but I'm not convinced. Reckon last years AB was a very poor race once BH fell. I said before the start of last years GC that I'd give up betting if Lord W won so I've been wrong before - fortunately I dont keep promises either. Its annoying with so many good horses owned by the same people as we dont know whats happening but it does add to the intrigue of it all. It would all be boring if we had mad odds on favourites in every race.
Report festivalfanatic March 1, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
I managed to extricate myself from my WW AP bet on here and have a free poke at winning £200 if he does happen to run. Share Arkle's opinion of VW and think WW would have a much better chance in this race than the RSA, which looks like being very hot.
Report layingisthewayforward March 1, 2015 3:51 PM GMT
Tory you wear a hurricane fly scarf? You sound like idiot imo
Report Tory March 1, 2015 5:13 PM GMT
That's fine, everyone's entitled to their own opinion, and you're clearly a ****
Report Tory March 1, 2015 5:14 PM GMT
It won't let me put what I want so let's go with prick
Report layingisthewayforward March 1, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
Ok mate. When I'm at the races and I see pissed people wearing scarves in the colours of horses I immediately think prick as well but hey its all about opinions.
Report HaylingBilly March 1, 2015 10:35 PM GMT
laying……….I would suggest you got just a little bit personal with no real reason. My view. And it is totally personal. Over the top. And I agree with Tory…... you have made yourself look a complete d1ck………without being pissed……….and that takes some doing. Kn0b !!! But as you say………..its all about opinions !!!!
Report layingisthewayforward March 1, 2015 10:45 PM GMT
Ok billy!!!!!!!

Apologies tory, I'm not normally so cantankerous.

Back to the race, not backed anything yet.  Cause of causes e/w would be a minimum stakes selection.
Report HaylingBilly March 1, 2015 10:55 PM GMT
Peace. For what it is worth I am EW on both Very Wood and Sego Success at 8/1 each. If I dont get a return I will be mightily passed off. Grin
Report Rathgorman82 March 2, 2015 11:12 AM GMT
Very unnecessary.
Nowt wrong with a scarve. I got a Big Bucks one, knowing if he won his 4th World Hurdle I could wave it around like a loon, or if he lost I could just pass it off as a Man Utd scarve Excited
Now, If you were to wear a Rich Ricci scarve that may be a little on the feminine side....
Report delsie777 March 2, 2015 1:55 PM GMT
For those interested Jamie Codd has been booked fore Cause Of Causes in the 4 Miler. Great news!
Report layingisthewayforward March 2, 2015 2:07 PM GMT
Yep. Happy with that booking.
Report delsie777 March 2, 2015 2:59 PM GMT
Does anyone know if O'Connor has been booked for anything in this race?
Report Ormonde March 2, 2015 3:43 PM GMT
According to today's Racing Post Derek O'Connor has been booked for The Job Is Right.
Report wellchief March 2, 2015 3:48 PM GMT
The Job is Right is my selection after The Young Master was confirmed for the RSA.
Report festivalfanatic March 2, 2015 3:51 PM GMT
Don't get much better assistance from the saddle in a amateur race wellchief though I do recall him falling off Rival D'Estruval in this a couple of years ago when in with every chance!
Report cufcno1 March 2, 2015 3:51 PM GMT
Derek oconnor is music to my ears
Report Rathgorman82 March 2, 2015 3:56 PM GMT
Don't remind me of Rival D...on ante-post at 16s :(
Report festivalfanatic March 2, 2015 3:59 PM GMT
Me too R.....that's why I remember!Sad
Report delsie777 March 2, 2015 4:06 PM GMT
Interesting to see the love for TJIR - anyone care to elaboarate? I get the jockey booking being a positive, although there may not have been a massive choice given stable allegiances and tie ups. What else marks him up as a contender?
Report cufcno1 March 2, 2015 4:15 PM GMT
Would have finished 2nd to djakadam the last time it ran over fences but for falling at the last,stayed on well to win over 3 mile 1 at Christmas,trained earmarked this race ages ago,run over hurdles last time out to keep it fit,and trainer won race before,Ew chance tbf
Report delsie777 March 2, 2015 4:19 PM GMT
Thanks cuf, I see the logic. Didn't have him down as a 4 miler tbh - good luck mate
Report cufcno1 March 2, 2015 4:25 PM GMT
Stayed on really well to beat as defer bet,giving it a stone ! Might not be good enough to beat very wood but you never know
Report wellchief March 2, 2015 4:33 PM GMT
Yeah, what Carlisle said really. Not mad on him, but thought he was worth a little play at 20's. Only beaten a length by Very Wood earlier in the season, and looks a proper stayer and is the right age.

Thought his hurdle run last time was encouraging considering the opposition were rated so much higher than him

Don't really have a strong opinion now that TYM is RSA bound.
Report delsie777 March 2, 2015 4:34 PM GMT
Given the defections, it's turned out to be a good lookig race - Very Wood, Cause of Causes, Job is Right, Sego Success and the chosen Mullins horse - really good race in prospect.
Report delsie777 March 2, 2015 4:42 PM GMT
All things considered, I am happy with my picks here - Very Wood at 8/1 and a bit of 33's e/w about Causes with SidJames before target/jockey decided. From my point of view, happy to see DP, WW and TYM skip this!
Report layingisthewayforward March 3, 2015 7:08 PM GMT
Wounded Warrior now a shorter price for this than the RSA, has he been rerouted ?
Report delsie777 March 3, 2015 7:21 PM GMT
No - RSA still the plan as far as we know. The money is for the RSA (although not much) you can have 25's at worst on here if you think he'll end up here
Report festivalfanatic March 3, 2015 7:29 PM GMT
Couple of factors laying. If he runs in the RSA he will be 5th or 6th favourite, depending on whether Coneygree runs ie a 20/1 poke. If he runs in this he will be joint favourite, probably fairly reflecting his chance. Then there is the ground. It is likely to be slower on Tuesday, than on Wednesday and Meade has always said the slower, the better for him. Who knows?Confused
Report festivalfanatic March 6, 2015 9:55 AM GMT
Strong indication on these markets that both Very Wood and Wounded Warrior run in this.
Report shockster March 6, 2015 10:02 AM GMT
This is running and running re the Gigginstown horses.  Wish they'd come out and say what goes where.  Had written off my Wounded Warrior bet but who knows????
Report delsie777 March 6, 2015 10:06 AM GMT
I'd heard that O'Connor was holding out for the ride but was told he wasn't going - so chose TJIR instead
Report shockster March 6, 2015 10:12 AM GMT
If they both run.  Nina will have the choice but no idea who will be on the other.
Report shockster March 6, 2015 4:45 PM GMT
Twitter saying Very Wood goes RSA?
Report buddeliea March 6, 2015 5:20 PM GMT
2/1 Don Poli ?? Bl00dy hell!!!

Coneygree gets the nod for this then DP must be bigger than that on the day,should be anyway imo
Report festivalfanatic March 6, 2015 6:18 PM GMT
Wounded Warrior will end up favourite.
Report HaylingBilly March 9, 2015 11:24 AM GMT
Feeling just a little smug this morning. Nice when a plan comes together. Is this the omen its going to be my week!!!!!!!Excited
Report delsie777 March 10, 2015 11:29 PM GMT
Race turned out to be a cracker - with some good rides on show. Jamie Codd - what a man! Perfect waiting ride. Cool as a cucumber. Really impressed. Don't think Nina was to blame for Very Wood's performance - never really seemed in any kind of rhythm. Serves Giggy right anyway for plssing about.
Report festivalfanatic March 11, 2015 7:49 PM GMT
Wounded Warrior would surely have won this race if he had pitched up. He had no chance of beating Don Poli today, unless DP failed to complete. Just can't get my head round the decision.
Report shockster March 12, 2015 8:44 AM GMT
You're not wrong Festival
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