Cheltenham Festival
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Looking at the top of the market this looks like it could cut up considerably and to me could leave three horses very clear at head of the market - Sego Success, Very Wood and The Young Master. Am making an assumption here that Don Poli will be Gigginstown Number 1 RSA horse based on (1) Mullins feedback yesterday (2) looking at betfair prices for Very Wood in RSA. If this assumption is correct plus Wounded Warrior stated preferred targets is RSA that leaves a considerable gap between the three above and the rest. Based on the fact (1) this is Sego Success only entry and is trained by last years winning trainer with similar prep ref Warwick (2) Very Wood's recent return to form added to the fact he won AB last year and if Don Poli is RSA bound then Very Wood is highly likely to be NH Chase bound (3) The Young Master looks 50/50 between here and RSA I reckon a decent EW bet on both Very Wood and Sego Success looks a good option. Am I talking sense or have I just got Festival Fever ?
Don Poli 9/2
Very Wood 7/1
Sego Success 38/5
Wounded Warrior 18/1
The Young Master 54/10
Cogry 19/1
The Job Is Right 19/1
Vroum Vroum Mag 27/1 (Unlikely to come to Cheltenham)
Don Poli 9/2
Very Wood 7/1
Sego Success 38/5
Wounded Warrior 18/1
The Young Master 54/10
Cogry 19/1
The Job Is Right 19/1
Vroum Vroum Mag 27/1 (Unlikely to come to Cheltenham)
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Replies: 86
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Just had a preliminary look at this race and I'll be interested to see what JOCI Club comes up with (and certainly bow to his efforts on the trends front) I like the look of APACHE JACK at big odds, if this is his target.
Couldn't bet at this stage with targets up in the air though. Jockey bookings are always interesting for this race too. |
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Not enough history on trends in its current format to formulate sound criteria IMO, although one spanning all eras is that 6yo's struggle big time simply because of the demands of the race, ie 4 miles over fences at a sound pace. Tricky Trickster the only 6yo to prevail since 1990.
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Mmmm.
Plenty of 6 year olds at the head of the market too. Makes you think.... |
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I've had a little go here on Grand Vision 50/1 shot withe the bookies, but last time was only beat 2 3/4L by Sego Success(vying for favouritism w/out Don Poli) after making a mistake 3 out. Also has good festival form, was 3rd in the Albert Bartlett only beat 3L by Brindisi Breeze. Has been entered for the 2 3m+ Hcps which is on the down side but overpriced IMO and is bound to set off much much shorter if taking this option. As mentioned plenty of doubts about the Favs.
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Meade: Very Wood lost it but he started to buzz a month and we knew we had him back. His owner is keen to go for the RSA.
Meade: It is likely Very Wood and Wounded Warrior will be split up. |
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Looks like Giggs going to go Don Poli & Very Wood RSA and Wounded Warrior 4m NH Chase. I'd say that gives them best chance of winning both. Wounded Warrior for my AP bets comes back into play, but has the 6 year old stat to overcome.
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that's really surprising considering the amount of money for Very Wood in the NH Chase lately
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I was surprised by how very wood ended up shorter than WW for the 4 miler. WW had form not far off the best novice form in ireland. Very wood's was far more fluid form.
Reckon it was more hype after a past festival winner had returned to form. |
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It was because Noel Meade indicated after his recent win he'd run in the 4 mile race, with WW going to the RSA. Now they appear to have changed minds.
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Don't believe Meade has changed his mind at all sint, more Gigginstown telling him what they want. Despite this apparently being in the public domain, the prices don't yet reflect the fact, so maybe it isn't a done deal.
Meade said that WW was still a bit weak, which makes his preference for the RSA all the more difficult to understand. I think he will go very close in the 4 miler and if The Young Master elects to run in the RSA, will probably be favourite. |
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Shock,
can I ask where you got the info about WWarrior and VWood mate,its quiet important for me. |
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Budd it was 2 separate tweets early this afternoon. Sorry can't remember the source of the tweet.
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ok, thanks mate
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Here's another from this afternoon
@CeltenhamZone O'Leary seems very keen on running Very Wood in the RSA. Interesting to see how this pans out with WPM & Don Poli. |
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@CheltenhamZone
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I am hoping Noel is allowed to stick to his original plan which was WW to RSA. Not because I have any money on that but because that would then mean Very Wood is in 4 miler and as stated in OP that is where my money is.
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Meade has given a stable tour of a few to ATR. Interestingly said WW would not run on good ground but similar to the above quotes that VW likely RSA and they'd be split up.
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Sort of understand Gigginstown's logic here. Both DP and VW are battle hardened Cheltenham campaigners who will be well suited by the attrition of the RSA. WW may well be left with a fairly soft option in the NH Chase and he does boast the second best staying novice form in Ireland after DP. They have the added bonus that because he isn't trained by WPM, they can employ the services of a competent amateur.
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FF...great name btw
Meade...."the only thing certain re the 4 miler is that Nina Carberry will ride",on sporting life interview. |
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Ok,that's the only thing certain,so on that basis running plans for the horses are up in the air still.
Have to just wait and see. |
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Have been trying to find out on Twitter about Very Wood and Wounded Warrior and CV (on here) has read that O'Leary wants to go RSA with Very Wood.
Nothing concrete but I wasn't dreaming it. |
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Be surprised if placed in RSA tbh.
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This just my opinion and no fact behind it, but I think Don Poli is there No1 for RSA and Very Wood looks like back up instead of Wounded Warrior. I can only assume they believe Wounded Warrior has a better chance than Very Wood in the 4m NH Chase and that is where he will go.
It suits me if I'm right so maybe it's wishful thinking but this sounds like Gigginstown plan. Nina Carberry will ride whichever runs in the 4miler. |
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http://www.express.co.uk/sport/horseracing/560439/Trainer-Noel-Meade-Gold-Cheltenham-Cup
This was published at 17.46 last night and says Wounded Warrior 4 Mile NH Chase but it also says Apache Stronghold RSA!!!!!!!!!! |
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Meade is on ATR saying likely plans are
WW - RSA AS - JLT VW - 4 miler Don't know where this other stuff came from |
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delsie777 - that was certainly Meade's original stated plan but recent news filtering through via numerous sources (reliability unsure) and quotes on here has suggested Gigginstown would make changes. Was he on ATR "live" today making those statements ref running plans for WW, AS and VW ?
I am hoping he sticks to the original plan !!  |
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Recorded yesterday I think - certainly quite plain what his wishes are but the most important thing to stress was that he quite categorically stated that nothing was finalised. With Gigginstown multi stable firepower, I feel certain that this is the case. and unlikely it will be so until final decs. Probably best to take these rumours and quotes with a pinch of salt and trust your own judgement. Then all you can do is hope their judgement is as good as yours!
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http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/427650/Noel-Meade-Cheltenham-Gold-Cup-Road-To-Riches
This was published today but is word for word same as the express. All very strange. |
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Think the Star and Express are owned by the same company, so probably just the same piece of crap journalism as far as AS is concerned. Confirmed target JLT according to Meade on the RP website this morning.
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More confusion if you want some, I read this in the Coral Champions club email today.
While Road To Riches is the headline horse for Meade, the trainer has a strong squad travelling over including the useful novice chase trio Apache Stronghold, Wounded Warrior and Very Wood, winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last season. Meade says: “Apache has been running well all the time. At Christmas everything went very well in the Topaz where he arrived to win and went past Don Poli but just got outstayed over three miles. We brought him back to the shorter trip of two-and-a-half miles last time and he was good over that which is why we’re looking to the JLT [Novices’ Chase] for him. “I think you need to stay further to win that race anyway and I think he does. It’s a very good race but it’s Cheltenham and there are good horses in every race. “At the moment we’re learning towards Very Wood going for the [National Hunt Chase] and Wounded Warrior going for the RSA Chase but that could change. I’m not saying that’s set in stone and one will go for one race and the other for the other race. “Very Wood won at Cheltenham last year which was very good and he started off well over fences before losing his way completely and I’m not sure why. He bounced back well and since he won the last day, I’ll say one thing for him, he seems to be in tremendous form. He’s in even better form than before he went to Navan.” |
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Tucho - thanks. As stated in OP I am hoping that is the way it falls with Meade's horses. Definitely pocket talking !!!!
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According to twitter, Cooper, at a preview says Very Wood goes NH...WW Goes RSA as does Don Poli.....
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Music to my ears………...
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Latest betting suggests my OP, for once, may be starting to take shape. A large gap between the top two and those likely to run. I love the Festival !!
Very Wood 24/5 Sego Success 5/1 Don Poli 57/5 (RSA most likely) Wounded Warrior 20/1 (RSA most likely) The Young Master 29/1 (RSA most likely) Cogry 71/5 The Job Is Right 88/5 Vroum Vroum Mag 27/1 |
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Yes looks very much like Very Wood is heading here and NOT Wounded Warrior which is poor for me. That's Ante Post betting
 I mentioned on another thread about Grand Vision for this and 50/1 NRNB seems huge to me. Was beaten over 2L by Sego Success (the Fav for this) last time but is 10 times the price. He is the only horse entered by Colin Tizzard so I should think he will run even though he is entered in the Hcp on the 1st day (won't get in) and the Kim Muir (Tizzard has 5 entered). Add to the fact he finished 3rd when he ran in the Albert Bartlett behind Brindisi Breeze and Boston Bob shows he acts at the festival. Can't say he's going to win but I suspect he will start much shorter when running plans are known and much better than a 50/1 shot. |
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Cause of causes has been confirmed for the 4 miler. He misses 'top 2' on one of last 2 starts stat and he also hasn't won over 3m, but was 2nd at Chelt last yr over 25f. He'll be 2nd highest horse in the race if Don poli doesn't show up and is 25/1 with BV. It's a 3 horse race for me - sego success, very wood and cause of causes
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I backed Cause of Causes too once he was a confirmed runner.Like you say race will cut up a bit and he's JP's only runner in a race he likes to target.25/1 won't last long I think!
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Thanks for that news, Tory. I think he is an absolutely knocking eachway bet. I think Nina Carberry is booked for Very Wood who I think is a worthy favourite - so a good jockey booking might see the price go. It's Elliot and JP - any ideas? Jamie Codd?
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Class really is outing in this race now. Last 4yrs top rated has finished 1,1,1,2. I was on shotgun paddy last year and had be not smashed the last fence, it would read 1,1,1,1.
Not sure what the British handicapper will do with the Irish in terms of giving them a rating, but very wood and cause of causes will Defo be the top 2 in the race - assuming that don poli goes RSA. I've backed very wood at 10/1 and 5/1 today, and sego success at 7/1 and 6/1. Picked up cause of causes at 25/1 after the news came out. Utterly convinced I've got the race sewn up. |