Cheltenham Festival
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Douvan 7/4, un de sceaux 4/7, faughheen evs........ Been doing this festival lark for a long time now, this is my 15th, and if there's 1 thing I've learned.... Stay away from hyped up short prices at the festival, road to ruin!!!!!!
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Totally agree bankit.
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Douvan for instance may be a superstar, but the best horse doesn't always win the supreme, sprinter sacre 3rd or 4th being a recent example!!!!
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I agree. I am a big Mullins fan, but I reckon its too much to ask for DOUVAN, UN DE SCEAUX, FAUGHEEN and ANNIE POWER to all win.
Although I have Douvan and Faugheen at good odds in my Ante Post book, as the time draws near, what looked dead certs when you pressed the betting button on them, ends up looking anything but. I have a sneaky suspicion that Mr Ferguson could tune up QEWYS to run well, in the festival opener. |
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Annie was hammered in price tonight with pp.8/11 mares.5/1 world.no offers till morning champion hurdle.
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This will be my 29th Festival and I completely agree. But I think the unthinkable may well happen this year. Yes - UDS might fall - but that's probably the only thing that can stop him. I think Faugheen is the real deal and will just be too good in The Champion. Annie Power is so far ahead of the other mares and really only has Glens Melody to beat. That leaves Douvan - and the stable think he's a total monster! It will be fun to watch whatever happens - could be an historic day.
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I can't believe people are falling over themselves to back AP. She is coming back from a pelvic injury. If she was in the same form as last season they'd go for the World Hurdle.
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She dont need to be anything like the same to be fair. Mares is shocking
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Mares is stronger than when Q cleaned up.
Glens Melody & Carole's Spirit (if ridden better is no slouch) But a top notch AP is better but their is some value to be had imho. |
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I reckon the plan was always to go for the Mares race, injury or no injury. The fact it's a Grade One now and the fact there's also a new-ish grade one Mares race at Punchestown was probably the reason she stayed hurdling. They had several opportunities to go the World Hurdle route with Quevaga and never took them. Same thing here.
However she has been off for nearly a year and was injured so I won't be backing her in any race. It was the same with Quevaga. I always backed an opponent e/w as I couldn't be confident back a mare off the track for so long. |
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Most interesting Mares race since its creation imo
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For a grade 1 its shocking I should have said I dont see a Volver Lavedete type
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They won't all win. UDS and Annie Power should win comfortably. I think Douvan will do a Pont Alexandre and not live up to the hype and I don't think Faugheen will win the champion hurdle
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The grade 1 moniker is hardly the horses' or connections fault sj
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bankit
11 Feb 15 22:12 Joined: 25 Oct 14 | Topic/replies: 8 | Blogger: bankit's blog Douvan 7/4, un de sceaux 4/7, faughheen evs........ Been doing this festival lark for a long time now, this is my 15th, and if there's 1 thing I've learned.... Stay away from hyped up short prices at the festival, road to ruin!!!!!!...never a truer word spoken. |
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I've been going since 1982, and seen dozens of hot pots been stuffed with burnt fingers.
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this could be a mug punters first day acca that could put the bookies on the back foot for the whole week!
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Personal festival short priced burnt fingers over the years are, Dunguib... baracouda.. Binocular (6/4 When it got beat, 9/1 the following year, I wasn't on the following year!!) are 3 that we're particularly sore, there's alot more, it was probably about the time of dunguib's defeat that I gave short prices at the festival more scrutiny, although I still managed to have a small wedge on pont alexandre last year....
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^^^ Voy Por got beat in Rynair as a shortie to, from memory
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Yes - but it was by the Commander!
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it is obviously only in hindsight that we know which festival bankers were in fact nothing of the sort, although laying every odds on shot to level stakes was generally a profitable strategy from what I remember. Would imagine this is because some of the Irish and UK formlines never combine before the festival and some horses just take to the course whilst others do not.
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I have the likes of Faugheen at 5swith Un De Sceaux at 6s and Vautour at 4s and Peace and Co at 4s tied up in singles doubles and accies,they weren't overly short when placed and as long as someone doesn't whisper in the horsesear"your a short priced fav and you are gonna lose" I don't have a problem with them being short...a damn sight better than drifting like the proverbial or not running,and maybe just maybe this could be the year when all the really fancied ones nail it I for one am hoping this is the case.
Good luck with whatever your picks are |
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In my preparation I am taking it as a given that they won't all win (they being Douvan, UDS, Faugheen, Annie Power and Champagne Fever). I can't see past UDS in the Arkle or Annie Power in either the Mares or WH. I think they will win wherever they go. I am opposing Douvan and Faugheen with Champaign Fever the remaining question mark.
I would love to see CF go CC. |