Valseur Lido & Don Poli

I'm purely speculating but after seeing Mullins interview yesterday there appears to be a bit of a battle between the owners and himself!
He seems to want valseur lido in the RSA and don poli in the 4 miler and it seems the owners want lido in the JLT and poli in the RSA.
Or have I got that wrong? And if I haven't who normally wins Mullins or giggy?

Its simple the owners will always get their way if they insist but every owner with any sort of sense would prefer to win a JLT to coming second in an Arkle. Very few people remember the 2nds at the festival unless they've done their dough on one. Its simple.

mullins would have won the arkle last year if trainers always get their way

I think Ricci and Wyllie are generally in awe of WPM and maybe for good reason. Wyllie definitely knows feck all about the game - he had horses (and lots of them) with Howard Johnson....QED, I think.

Gigginstown are a totally different kettle of fish and much as Willie might like to try and pull the wool over their eyes, he has little chance. They are much better informed/street wise and of course have a much wider pool of experts from whom to seek opinions and advice.

If they have decided that Wounded Warrior is their NH Chase horse, then Don Poli runs in the RSA. Valseur Lido might contest the JLT but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will miss the gig if the ground rides fast. Sintonian has been saying for weeks (maybe months!)that he needs soft ground. That might just suit WPM too.

As a Kings Palace backer for the RSA I would love it Kevin Keegan style if DP does not get a prep run in... no chance of winning without one.

You could have picked a better anaolgy sint....we know what happened to Keegan's dreams....

Looking through previous Giggi runners at the festival, I was surprised how much they split them up. 

You see them taking each other on in Ireland week in week out in G1's and G2's (like Valseur Lido vs Rule the World at the weekend, First Lieutenant taking on Road to Riches, First Lieutenant took on Sir Des Champs, Quito De La Roque beat Roi Du Mee in a G2 etc).

But at the festival, all I can remember in G1's is Midnight Game and Trifolium together in the Supreme a few years ago.

O'Leary has always said they want a good one for each race if possible. It's why SDC and First Lieutenant were kept apart, first as novices and then in Ryanair and Gold Cup where they both came 2nd.

I won't be backing either Valseur Lido or Don Poli at Cheltenham though. Unless the former runs in the RSA.

Sint not sure about Don Poli having no chance re no prep,he has the best form in race from what I have seen.
I know he has few stats to overcome,but as we know they are broken
at almost every Festival.

Also market on here suggests defo goes RSA not 4 miler,owners have winner of that with Wounded Warrior.

The no prep is a non factor stevo. If a horse is good enough he'll win. He seems mature enough and jumps well. I just think he's too short in the betting.

Price is too short if Coneygree runs, but I took 9/2 earlier today as a saver as I think Coneygree will probably go for Gold and expect DP to shorten if I'm correct.  If both go for RSA I've got back up.

Only 4/1 Don Poli now best price,will be 3/1 or less on day.

CVByrne • February 9, 2015 9:26 PM GMT
The no prep is a non factor stevo. If a horse is good enough he'll win. He seems mature enough and jumps well. I just think he's too short in the betting.not if they are inclined to be a bit fresh its not, might really help the horse for the big day.

I had wanted to get on Don Poli for a while but am beginning to think he is too short for the RSA as it's a decent race in my eyes, and would be more than decent if Coneygree ran.

FWIW, I think people often make judgements too quickly and while those who say Valseur Lido is a soft-ground horse might be right, I think there has been an over-reaction to his run at the weekend. I think it's quite possible that he will come on for his first run in a good while more than expected, and his jumping is such an asset that he looks a right price now in the JLT. I still fancy him to hit the frame at least.

the no prep run has to be a factor imo

The Don Poli situation is simple - WPM wants him in the NH, and it's simply a case of whether or not he can convince the owners to go down that route.

I'd be surprised if he didn't run in the RSA but I'm also sure I heard Michael O'Leary say after the Juvenile that he leaves plans to Willie and he'll decide.

I'm not sure I'd fancy him in the RSA at the prices but think he'd be a banker in the NH - he'd just have way too much class for them all

the NH  chase aint my cup of tea but don poli would be the one id back, day of the race, if he ran of course...

Don Poli is in the 5 day decs for the ten up novice chase sunday

Howdi 09 Feb 15 22:10 Joined: 13 Oct 04 | Topic/replies: 27,095 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
not if they are inclined to be a bit fresh its not, might really help the horse for the big day.

Yep it's horse specific, but not "an all RSA horses need prep runs but Arkle, NH Chase, Ryanair & Gold Cup horses don't" kind of scenario some people seem to believe.

Take Kauto Star, he improved massively when he was kept fresh rather than running at Ascot or Newbury as a prep. The top trainers know how to get them there. For me it's key of they are denied a prep by weather or a setback as opposed to a simple decision by the trainer that they'd prefer to go fresh.

Point me in the direction of a horse who has won the RSA with two runs and no run in the current season and then i'll agree it's ''no factor''. It's just plain daft to say a top trainer will get him ready, especially when talking about a guy who has a 6% strike rate over fences in the UK.

Florida Pearl only had two chases. Not sure who trained him though!!!!! On only his 6th career start.

Don Poli had already had 8.

Your opinion of the Mullins ability to train chasers is fine. Its your opinion. Also again your opinion that 2 runs over fences isn't enough is again a valid opinion. But you realise Mullins has won the RSA before with a horse who's had only 2 runs over fences in Florida Pearl.

I just am pointing out this opinion where no run in the calendar year is only a factor for the RSA and not the Arkle or the Gold Cup or the Ryanair or the World Hurdle or etc.. is complete nonsense. There are enough races at Cheltenham to have each one having some kind of random pattern associated with it. I dislike blind belief in such things, I like people articulating opinion based on what they see.

Don Poli will run this weekend though.

Don't know if it's been mentioned earlier in the thread but surely the 'trend' or stat that should worry Don Poli backers is the age factor - as a 6 year old it has a big ask to overturn a run now of 8 seven year olds on the trot winning the RSA. Only horse in last 12 years to win when being younger than 7 was Star De Mohaison in 2006 and it got a big weight allowance which is no longer. Only three winners since 1978 including SDM !!

This is a trend that seems, to me anyway, to have logic behind it. The RSA as we all know is tough race and it seems logical to me that younger horses are maybe not mature or developed enough to win it. I'm nt saying Don Poli cant be the exception but should he run, it doubt he'll be value at the likely SP

I looked back and not enough fancied horses aged 5 or 6 ran in the race to be significant. Look back at the past 4 runnings for example, 2 years ago we had a fair few 6yo and they ran well (2nd & 3rd to a future Gold Cup winner). Then the other 3 years had either none or a couple of unfancied ones. Factor in that a 5yo won it not too long ago and it's a non factor.

Always best to stick to form and opinions of a horses runs that season.

Long Run 11/4
Carruthers 13/2
What A friend 13/2
Pomme Tiepy 9/2
Air Force One 6/1

Comply Or Die 3/1
L'Ami 4/1
Our Vic 11/8


There are a few 5/6 olds who were fancied to be fair.

I was talking about the 8 years of 7yo winners since the 5yo French horse Star De Mohison won. So those last 3 are prior to that. Our of the remainder Pomme Tiepy fell, while the others make up about a 58% adjusted chance of winning an RSA since them and that was in the 3 of last 4 years have had no 6yo sp below 20/1 while in 2013 and 2010 we've had a 6yo or 5yo our run their prices and come 2nd and 3rd.

Also it's interesting that a 6yo can go and break the Track Record and win the Gold Cup in 2010.

So seeing that the last 8 years of 7yo winning tells no story with regards the chances of 6yo or 5yo given those who've run in the race in that time. They've actually outrun their prices

The last three were all six year olds so didn't receive wfa, so not sure why you wouldn't include them.

Unioniste went off fav a couple of years ago too.

Intresting opinions flying about on this thread,with all the stats as well being chucked around.
To be honest theres probably fair points being made by most to be fair.
My take fwiw is that as long as a horse has been seen to run well this season,i would trust the trainer to know whats best for the horse to have him right on the big day,whether that means a prep run at some point or go straight there after a longer break.Neither would bother me at all.
Nor would the age thing,as long as ive seen the horse and decided hes a big player.

If the trainer has got the T-Shirt like Mullins and Nicholls I trust them implicitly if the horse appears good enough.

Last year, Pat Fahy for instance with Morning Assembly was a different matter.

The twists and turns of the Festival build up - Paddy has shortened Don Poli for the 4 miler and pushed him out for the RSA. is Willie getting his own way?

Bryan Cooper

VALSEUR LIDO ran well in the Flogas and he pleased me on his first start since November. Apache Stronghold had had another run since and I’d have no worries about taking him on again.
In terms of Cheltenham, that’ll be up to Willie [Mullins], but Sunday’s trip seemed perfect for him and I see no reason to go up or down at this stage.

No Don Poli at Navan on Sunday, presume he goes straight there now?  Hopefully, in the RSA as I'm on at 14s and 10s.

DP had a run as late as the 20th February last year before the Festival. Only 3 weeks now though and I'd be surprised if they subject him to a grueller over fences.

No prep then? Beautiful.

An impressive performance from Very Wood today. He looks to be back to the horse that won at the Festival last year. I thought he jumped safely today and Cooper was smart getting a breather into him down the back. Giggy have some team of stayers, both hurdlers and chasers but I would not be surprised to see Very Wood join Don Poli in the RSA after that. Surely Noel Meade would like a runner in each of the JLT, RSA & the 4-miler. He already has Apache Stronghold and Wounded Warrior so RSA for Very Wood?

Tricky decision - and that was a performance to really nuddy the waters as far as where all these Giggy horses go. Valseur, Wounded, Don P and Very Wood - Can't call it, but I would imagine that sends Valseur Lido to the JLT.

Trainer said he would like Wwarrior in the RSA.
Hope he gets that,I've backed him.

What that means for Very Wood and Don Poli I really don't know.

Where did you read that about Wounded Warrior? I've a big bet on for NH so would be gutted if he went RSA

Apparently he said this afternoon,and also he would want very wood in the 4 miler according to Sporting life website. I did not see it myself,me mate just called me to tell me what he said.

Said he's a young horse (ww)and he would prefer the lesser distance for him.

Cooper mentioned the 4 miler for Very Wood. Meade just said he'd like to keep them apart. Very Wood backed for the 4 miler but WW still steady

My initial reaction is to go for the 4 miler,but its up to Olearys what they want to do.
Meades comments Sporting Life website.

About Very Wood:

"He worked well on the flat at Punchestown with Apache Stronghold and Texas Jack, and that has been nicely boosted since.

"He's a Cheltenham winner so he has to go back if he's alright. My initial reaction is to go for the four miler but it's up to Eddie and Michael (O'Leary) what they want to do."

Meanwhile on another one of their charges, Wounded Warrior (a Naas Grade 2 victor), Meade commented: "He's in super form and may go for the RSA. He was worked to run here, and I've always thought he's a very good horse.

"He's a bit weaker than Very Wood, and the Irish National is in the back of my mind but it would be asking a lot to go to Cheltenham first and then go there."

In ante-post news Paddy Power go 8/1 (from 14) for the four mile National Hunt Chase, and 16/1 (from 33s) for the RSA Chase about Very Wood. (AM & EM)

Read it, sounds unlikely Wounded Warrior will go for NH Chase by the sounds of it. Hopefully Giggenstown run both in the 4 miler and keey Don Poli for RSA.

I have traded out of my Wounder Warrior bet on here. I've backed him nrnb with Boyles for RSA.

Ive found Meade to be pretty open and honest,i think that's what he wants mate.

Maybe the Gigginstown mob will have their own ideas,but to go against Meade would be folly imo,he knows his stuff.

Don Poli either joins him in the RSA or joins VW in the 4 miler.
I doubt Mullins will be so open about plans.

CV, how have you traded out of a big bet when there was barely anything there? Money gets hoovered up the second a trainer says something.

Gigginstwon top owner at 5/2 looks better and better. Can't really understand why RR is fav as he won't have much for the handicaps, and if you take out his three or four shorties, he doesn't have that much depth IMO.

Can't believe Gigginstown will take on Don Poli in the RSA with Wounded Warrior. Don Poli might not make the Festival but everything in the book says he's way ahead of Wounded Warrior on every count.

Very Wood got a very handy race at last years festival and cant see him getting another. He'd be one of the last horses I'd consider backing. But as I often say I've been wrong before - many times.

Don Poli is one of the bets of the meeting in the RSA.

Only if hes in the race!! its not a given.

Don Poli one of the bets of the festival for the RSA @ 4/1 when he's only had 2 runs and hasn't been seen since Christmas? I can't be having that at all to be honest.

If DP and The Young Master bypass the NH Chase then Very Wood could take some beating.

The lack of experience is a slight concern - the lack of a run since Xmas is of no concern. -

I was at Leopardstown at Xmas to witness his win in a high class Topaz - and believe me he is a magnificent animal to look at with huge scope - have a bit on him for the next 2 Gold Cup's as well.

Earlier in the year when the talk was of Don Poli going for the 4 miler Cooper played it down and said it would be RSA. He chose to ride Very Wood again yesterday over more fancied horse but then straight after the race suggested 4 miler for him, it's quite clear that Bryan Cooper wants to ride Don Poli in the RSA

sintonian 15 Feb 15 18:46 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,768 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
CV, how have you traded out of a big bet when there was barely anything there? Money gets hoovered up the second a trainer says something.

I had £15 @ 31.44 av odds on here, layed £42 @ 11.76 avg. (£2 @ 9.8, £3.74 @ 10.5 & £36.26 @ 12.0)

I've done my dough on a 4 fold and trebles with him in with TUM, Zark, No More H, also £50 on the nose bet also lost.

That's if he doesn't go for the 4 miler.

Only way to be fully transparant in all betting is to take screenshots of all unsettled bets on all accounts for a date range of a year and post them on my site. I'll be doing that shortly so you can see it all then. I'll obviously summarise it all in a blog post.

CVByrne 16 Feb 15 20:24 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,762 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
sintonian 15 Feb 15 18:46 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,768 | Blogger: sintonian's blog

Only way to be fully transparant in all betting is to take screenshots of all unsettled bets on all accounts for a date range of a year and post them on my site. I'll be doing that shortly so you can see it all then. I'll obviously summarise it all in a blog post.

Why would you feel the need to do that CV? If people don't believe you had them bets, let them be. Fook them i would say. People come on here saying that they bet in the hundreds antepost, the realist in me and the proof on the graphs on the markets tell me that 90% of them are telling porkies and in actual fact their £350 bet is a £35 one! I bet at between £5 and £25 a pop, so what!

Agree Sea,but he is putting them on his website not on here.

Yes, on my website STS. I get plenty of traffic and given I haven't done tipping for Cheltenham and won't be doing it because my anteost betting is quick decisions often on betfair at bigger prices, all round book building too that it's not possible to replicate for any people following my site. I'll need to solve that maybe next season. But at least people can see where my big bets are and if they feel like backing those horses themselves at whatever odds or offers they have that's up to them. I'll put up my Handicap picks I think as I'll place those closer to festival at 5 to 2 day decs.

I'm querying it because CV did not seem aware of the latest news, hence his question to Budde, and he also promotes his site on here too, so it needs to be squeeky clean. But as I have said all along, there will always be that element of doubt if someone has the power of moderation.

Thing with moderation control of the site is with the blog it shows the exact time it was edited it's a feature of wordpress, so the audit trail is there sint. With the non blog pages there wasn't. Plus I tweet my picks the evening before with link through to the blog post so we've got like about 16 to 20 hours between when blog is updated and racing starts. It's not like I'm competing with anyone, I started the site for my mates and friends of friends as a place where they could all get some betting tips tbh.

I think the tweet and blog post method is still the best method. Tweet with the horse names & prices for times I can't write a blog post before Sat morning.

Link to pic of Wounded Warrior betfair bets below. More than happy to post any screenshots of bets I've placed as I'll be doing it all in gallery of my site soon anyway.

http://i58.tinypic.com/35a69mw.jpg

NH chase suspended on here?

Market Suspensions:

    12pm, 17th February - Forfeit Stage
    12pm, 4th March - Confirmation Of Entry Stage

This market will close at 10am on the 9th March. A day of the race market will be available shortly after.

Bryan Cooper

Very Wood looks ideal type for four-miler

I was delighted with VERY WOOD in the Ten Up Novice Chase yesterday and it was great to see him back in top form. It was a bit of a funny race, I was surprised they didn’t come after us as we weren’t going that quick, just a nice even gallop.

He’d been disappointing on his two previous starts. He made a bad mistake at Punchestown in November which gave him a fright and probably knocked his confidence.

As I said last week, he’d worked very well at home against some decent horses and the four-miler [National Hunt Chase] looks the obvious race for him. He could run in the RSA but he may just get run off his feet over that trip on better ground.

He won last year at Cheltenham on good ground, so that won’t be a problem, but the slower pace of the four-miler will suit. I’d have thought Nina [Carberry] would ride if we go down that route.

Willie said today he wants Don Poli in the 4 miler but it's upto the owners....surely Patrick can't hold that much sway

BC wants Valseur in the JLT and the Don in RSA. All pocket talk aside surely the Don has too much class for the 4-miler and not taking into consideration any other horses/trainers/owners permutations the RSA is the correct race for him.

Not sure I would describe the RSA as a classy race myself,probably a more prestigious race than the 4 miler,but both races are not exactly classy imo.
If hes seen as a future top class stayer,will it affect him whichever race he runs in?? I don't think so.

Well both Wounded Warrior & Very Wood better suited to 4 miler than Don Poli. So I'd be amazed if he ended up running in it instead of the RSA. Giggenstown call the shots as has been shown many times before. I'd really be amazed if Willie got his way here.

I was describing the horse as classy - whether the RSA is classy depends on the vintage - as with all championship races.

This has been running and running for ages,and looks like continuing till close to the meeting.
We know Warrior is probably going RSA,and VW going 4 miler,we will have to wait re DP.
V lido not done and dusted yet either,although I would be surprised if 3m was his ideal distance at this stage.

Yeh I know you were,i was just intimating if hes too classy for the 4 miler hes probably too classy for the RSA. And running in either would not affect his future.
To me its all about which race gives him most chance of winning.
Maybe they will wait for the decision re Coneygree......he makes winning the RSA a lot harder than the 4 miler.

Budde, the RSA is different level to the 4 miler. Just look at which horses have won it the last decade and compare.

If DP does go for the RSA WPM's comments would have to be seen as a negative.

The standard of runner in the race has risen recently as the qualification rules were altered a few years back

ie the 4 mile race.

and willie mullins would be finding words to talk down the 4 miler if he wanted him in the RSA.

Willie wants VL in the RSA because he has probably promised Ricci a free run at the JLT from his yard with Vautour. Betting would seem to indicate that that he isn't getting his way. His dumbing down of Don Poli is amusing. Winning form over hurdles at 2 and a half at Cheltenham on good ground off a 9lb higher mark than Sir Des Champs. Remind me what novice chase he won at the Festival the following season.

Yes Sint,I agree mate,but as said the 4 miler is a different race now.
Class wise they are getting closer.

When was last horse that run/won over 4 miles,gone onto run in Gold Cup next season?
Imo only one race for DP,that is RSA that's what Cooper wants and Valseur in JLT.
Hope he goes 4 miler as have decent bets/prices on The Young Master and Southfield Theatre,
On DP in doubles,think Perfect Gentleman will go 4 miler for his son?

Giggs have excellent chances in each of these novice, VL - JLT, DP/WW - RSA, VW - NH.
Why on earth would they allow Mullins to mess with that order of merit to suit his own plans, which is quite evident ?

IF they think DP is a gold cup horse he simply won't run in the 4 mile race.

Yep,it would certainly be unusual for a gold cup horse to run in the 4 miler. Mind you a few on here fancied shutthefrontdoor for the gold cup this year!!
Mullions seems to me wants him in the race so his son can ride,although the owners may not want him on board anyway.
That would be quiet funny if Mullins got his way,and giggingstown put Jamie Codd on him.

Foxrock ran in the 4miler and just ran one of the main Gold Cup fancies to a length, and smashed last years Gold Cup first and second.

There isn't a cat in hell's chance of Mullins facing down the O'Leary's.

Why is a grade one winner going to run in a listed race?

Good point chief,forgot about fox rock.

Foxrock ran a stinker in the NH Chase and was only rated low 140's going into it after 5 or 6 chases. Maybe he isn't a Cheltenham horse, or maybe he should have run in the RSA! Don Poli is different gravy. He's 154 after only 2 chases and has already proved himself at Cheltenham on good ground.

I have Don Poli to win any race, so maybe I should want him in the NH Chase as I think he'd win it with a leg tied up with a decent amateur though not the 7 lb penalty aka Patrick Mullins. With a horse of this potential, Gigginstown will rightly want it ridden by a professional, particularly one as competent as Bryan Cooper.

Sorry FF, the point I was trying to make was that if Foxrock can run in the 4 miler and then improve a tonne this year, there is nothing stopping Don Poli doing that either.

You are right in that DP is at a higher level than Foxrock at this point last year, and if he shows a similar level of improvement he can be a Gold Cup candidate.

Even though its further, the 4miler might even be easier on him. The RSA is a serious gallop and if you look at beaten horses recently, a lot of them never recover from the RSA.

4 miler is lower rated horses, but all on level weights going slower, which to me is easier.

I haven't got DP in anything. No bets in the 4 miler and Coneygree RSA, so I'm neutral in this.

PP going 6/1 Don Poli for the NH Chase and Valseur Lido in to 5/1 for the JLT.

They knew as somebody used to say.

10/1 Spoilsports Valseur Lido is a knocking bet NRNB (if you can get on!) as obviously it looks like we'd all prefer the chances of Don Poli, but IF plans change, VL aint gonna be up against DP and he certainly won't be 10/1 or even half that price!

PP reduced VW to 5/1 in the NH Chase as well.

I think PP have been trying to make fools of us all over the last month with the price changes between these two.

It would appear they have the inside track on the Mullins yard. FWIW, I suspect Mullins has known that Don Poli was going for the RSA since he won the Topaz.

How come wounded warrior is so big for the RSA yet seems to be going there? 8/1 for NH chase and 25/1 NRNB RSA.

Doesn't add up and suggests he's actually going the 4 miler?

The RSA is a much tougher assignment and difficult to see how WW can beat Don Poli, never mind the rest. He may well still run in the NH Chase but Noel Meade recently made some comment about him not wanting WW to run in it....bit weak or something to that effect. Odd that he should want him in a fast run, gruelling race like the RSA if that's the case.

Meade actually looks like he wants his pair split up so very wood 4 miles and Wounded warrior RSA.

I think WW chase form is better than very wood's so maybe meade just wants his best in the hardest race. Either way, if one lines up in the RSA it'll half in price which is why I don't understand nobody is taking those gambles as they would with others.

I've already had DP RSA and WW 4 miler with no bet on very wood.

Not unreasonable that the trainer would want to have the chance of winning 2 races, rather than have 2 good pokes at the NH Chase. He is in the hands of Gigginstown - they will decide where these horse run and maybe they haven't made up their mind! Interesting that in Bryan Cooper's pre-Xmas podcast for the Irish Field, his thoughts were Valseur Lido JLT, Don Poli RSA and Wounded Warrior NH Chase. At that stage of course Very Wood wasn't showing any form at all.