Cheltenham 2015 Bankers

DOUVAN WILL WIN 5L OR MORE sp 5/2.UN DE S.10L sp 4/5,faugheen WINS 5L evs, ANNIE POWER WINS SP 6/4,SPRINTER SACRE UNPLACED sp 3/1, peace and go wins sp 2/1

think ill be happy to lay all 6 at the prices[ thou easier to say that having got first 3 all at decent ante post prices].  sp guesses douvan 3/1 unde 4/6 faugheen 5/4  annie 5/4 ss 5/2 peace 2/1

2 winners there imo.

Jesus wept some folk never learn. If there is 1 thing to learn from watching 30 odd festivals it's that these "bankers" never ever all win. This thread repeats itself year in year out. I sure as he'll don't know which ones will get turned over but it's 99% certain at least one probably 2 and possibly 3 of those mentioned won't win thus winning bookies millions in mental multiples.

Absolutely spot on Mister Westsound! And the reason why i have a quiet little giggle to myself whenever someone (who backs one a race and invariably loses long term) comes on here and criticizes my approach of trying to build a book in complete reverse to what a bookmaker does. Always safe in the knowledge that after the last race on the Friday of the festival i am booking my families summer jollies

UDS and Annie P are bankers there for me (SPs of 1/2 and 4/5) but the rest could all get beat. I think Faugheen will win (SP 11/8), but certainly no good thing in such a hot race.

Supreme - Douvan - Placed SP 2/1
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - Wins easily - 4/6
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen- Placed - 11/10
Mares - Annie Power - Wins - 6/4
champion chase - SS - Placed - 11/4
triumph - peace and co - Banker - 7/4

Probably get 0 right, but really think P&C and UDS are 'bankers'

Yeah the over the top hype of Mullins horses last year,some saying he would  have 7 winners.
Well here we go again.
I will say UDS best chance 10/11

Opening post never says they will all win at all... Some on here could do with reading lessons imo.

Douvan, UDS, SS and Peace and Co are all likely to carry my money, either antepost or dor.

Supreme - Douvan - Wins
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - Wins
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen - Loses
Mares - Annie Power - Loses
champion chase - Sprinter Sacre - No idea
triumph - Peace and Co - Wins

Douvan looks such a talented and mature horse, I wish I hadn't missed the boat with his price. All because I thought he'd not run in the Supreme because of Allez Colombieres.

UDS  and P&C   are the bankers imo

Mister Westsound has is spot on. All these 'bankers' never materialise. Of those mentioned I think Annie Power and Peace & Co will win. UDS, Douvan and Faugheen to all go close and lose.

There is a reason why bookies go out of their way to promote and offer these Mullins trebles/quadruples and it's not to make punters rich is it!

If they try and ride Peace and Co like they did on Saturday I wouldn't be so sure.  If they just let him go and let him get on with it, he'll have a much better chance.

Of all of those in the list, I've only got singles on Sprinter.  UDS and Douvan are in a couple of multiples when they were much bigger prices, and really regret not taking the prices in singles too, because one always lets you down!

Supreme - Douvan - Wins @ 7/4
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - Wins @ 4/6
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen - Placed @ 11/8
Mares - Annie Power - Placed @ 4/6
Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre - Placed @ 9/4
Triumph - Peace and Co - Placed @ 2/1

I'll probably oppose the lot of them to be honest. Don't like shorties at the Festival, particularly novices.

Think Saturday was an educational exercise for Peace and Co which he passed with flying colours.

Hard to win a Triumph (or any race at The Festival really) making all. The hack-canter pace on Saturday was all wrong but they wanted him to settle in and pass horses, which he did, despite being short of room at a couple of points.

Faster pace in the Triumph and he'll be held up in behind the leaders and then let his turn of foot do them from the bottom of the hill IMO.

Banker? Not a race I know that much about but he's looked very impressive in his two (different) UK runs this season

Supreme - Douvan - 2nd @ 2/1
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - Wins @ 4/7
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen - Wins @ 10/11
Mares - Annie Power - Wins @ 4/7
Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre - Pulled up @ 5/2
Triumph - Peace and Co - Wins @ 13/8

Supreme - Douvan - unp 7/4
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - Wins @ 8/11 (prolly go 1/2 week before the race but the festival being the strongest market in the world and the first day i think he could be bigger than he really should be)
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen - 2nd - 13/8
Mares - Annie Power - unp @ 6/4
Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre - wins @ 7/4
Triumph - Peace and Co - unp @ 9/4

Douvan-2nd 13/8
Un De Sceaux wins 4/6
Faugheen-wins 11/8
Annie Power-Non Runner
Sprinter Sacre-2nd 2/1
Peace And Co-3rd 13/8

I'll try this exercise to see how far off I'll be

Supreme - Douvan - u/p @ 9/4
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - fell @ 4/6
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen - win - 8/11
Mares - Annie Power - placed @ 4/5
Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre - win @ 11/4
Triumph - Peace and Co - u/p @ 100/30

seathestars/mister westhound if that was aimed at me, read the opening post - nowhere have i said they'll all win

seathestars all i was pointing out in the other thread is that you seem to back every single horse after it has run well in a trial at a bigger price than is currently available. you must back heavy odds on every race. each to their own but thats such a boring way of betting and basically not taking a view

why do people who back one per race invariably lose? what a load of nonsense

anyway:

Supreme - Douvan - 3rd
Arkle - Un De Sceaux - wins
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen - wins
Mares - Annie Power - pulled up
Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre - unplaced
Triumph - Peace and Co - 3rd

I'm more than happy to lay Annie Power and SS at short prices. The others are less tempting, but when they're
short enough they are all lays. Especially at the Festival.

Seen all this before, list of hotties that look bomb proof for them all to get beat. Anyone remember the Rooster Booster year?

2 winners seems reasonable from that list - although 2 placing and no winners would be no surprise.

^ yes, spent most of the journey to the racecourse singing the Neil Diamond song Rhinestone Cowboy (badly!)

was n't singing it on the way back...

The OP asks how do you think they'll fare, he doesn't says they'll all win. If you watch horse racing you would have an idea or made up your mind about most of these and their chances and if so just play a little game and predict how they'll fare and their starting prices. They could all lose or all win, but comparing with a different year in which favs lost is gamblers fallacy at its best.

^ Agreed.

I haven't done the stats here but I bet the performance of shorties at the Festival is roughly what would be expected by probability.

People probably see bankers a bit falsely at Cheltenham - even a 2-1 chance (which is very short for any Festival race) is hugely more likely to lose than win, yet it is still probably referred to as a banker.

Lay all horses below 11-4 at the festival

LAY THEM ALL

Zealot have you any stats on that.

ZEALOT • January 27, 2015 10:56 PM GMT
Lay all horses below 11-4 at the festival

LAY THEM ALL....you wouldn't have done badly following this over the years!

Broke even level stakes laying them last year.

2013 you would have taken a beating round about 500 down for level stakes lays of 100 quid.
Off top of head mind quick scan but not looking that good so far

Just heard the worst bet so far from Coral this morning on Talksport.  Ireland to win Supreme, Arkle, Champion Hurdle & Mares.............wait for it.........5/2

5/2?? That's pathetic. Do they really expect anyone to take that bet?

Agree ACS - Suppose they will argue that 4 out first 5 in the betting for the Supreme, Champion and Mares are Irish and UDS in the Arkle?  Still miserly though.

Four 2/5 shots pays better than that, so that's what they must be reckoning the chances of Irish victories in those four races.

Supreme - Douvan Unp
Arkle - Un De Sceaux wins
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen 3rd
Mares - Annie Power Wins
Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre Unp
Triumph - Peace and Co Unp

They're betting UDS like it's already won the Arkle. Madness when there's over a month to go.

if his form is as good as it looks though, what can beat him? they look much of a muchness

i was always cautious of him thinking he might not be as good as he looked, but the irish arkle was a spectacular sprinter like performance of absolute dominance

i wont back him because i think his price is exactly right, but i wouldnt bet there is one horse in the race that can match his gears

4/5 on the day would be a gift. If he gets there I'd make him a 1/5 chance.

Agree with Wicketd - looked like a Sprinter/Frankel performance of utter superiority and made him look banker material for the near future.

Posted on another thread that I think he will be a bigger price than maybe he should be given that it's the first day and only the 2nd race. I predict 8/11 sp. But do think he will be closer to 1/2 after the 17th of Feb when which is very likely now the entries are dwindled down to just 12-15 area!!

1/5 ?

That means he's a 1/2 chance to get there. If you're right, he's a good place lay at anything less than 1.50 - interesting.

Sorry Pete, not sure how you're getting there...

probably that 1/5 & 1/2 is a 1.8 chance which he is now..., so if he's 1/5 in your book he's 1/2 to get there which the 1.8 takes into account...

I got that far but didn't understand the place lay angle...

if he's 1/2 to get there and currently 1/3 to place it's evens he places, so value lay at 1.5

i disagree hugely but think thats his thinking

I am not offering an opinion - just turning Tom's estimates into prices.

If UDS is 1.5 to run, it must be worth laying a place at 1.36 (current price on left-hand side).

I don't agree or disagree, but I think 1.5 is probably a fair estimate this far out.

Laying favs en masse at Cheltenham always sounds a good strategy but every now and again there is a spate of favs win at the meeting. 2003 in particular would have been disastrous (sure it was for some) when favs were pinging in all over the place, and if I remember rightly not many if any were odds on.

1.5 to run, are you lot mad?? That means he has a 67% chance of running in the Arkle. So it's 33% chance he won't run. So what 1/3 of all Willie Mullins horses get struck down in the 5 or 6 weeks before the festival each year!!!

He's about 1.07 to Run.

Sorry - I was slow to catch on to the implication...

I don't think he is 1/2 to get there - probably about 1/10 although I wouldn't really know...

I think 4/5 is actually a VERY backable price right now because I think he is as good a banker as you can find. He might not get there of course, or he might tip up, or boil over (he is fizzy). But the likelihood of all those things is much smaller than the 4/5 in my opinion.

Am just trying to fathom what you guys will think if my prediction proves correct and only 12-15 are left after the next forfeit stage on 17th Feb and he goes 1/2. It happened to sprinter sacre before his arkle

Am just trying to fathom what you guys will think if my prediction proves correct and only 12-15 are left after the next forfeit stage on 17th Feb and he goes 1/2. It happened to sprinter sacre before his arkle

I don't really care who's left in tbh, I've my bets on so just looking forward to seeing him on the day.

I don't really know either, but if CV says 14/1 on, that's good enough for me.

Do you think his SP will be about 4/6 then CV?

What am sayin is I'm intent on backing him until the remaining 4/5 goes. 10/11 on the sportsbook last time I checked. Of us that are doing the same I think we got till about the 16th feb

To work out what % chance is implied by the odds you need to convert to decimal odds and 1 / decimal = % chance. So evens is 2.0 , 1 / 2.0 = 0.5 = 50%   ie a 50:50

To work out multiples it's decimal x decimal then subtract 1 to get regular odds.

So Un De Sceaux is 4/5 which is 1.8, 1.8 / 1.07 = 1.68 which is approx 4/6

So if he's 1/14 to get there that implies he's a 4/6 shot.