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ImSoLuckyLucky!
18 Jan 15 15:08
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Date Joined: 31 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 13,452 | Blogger: ImSoLuckyLucky!'s blog
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Report Can't Catch Me January 18, 2015 3:39 PM GMT
Agreed. Hurdles or Fences though?!

Form at Chelts and loves better ground... One to watch closely.
Report .Fidway. January 18, 2015 5:11 PM GMT
Eastlake for the Grand Annual
Report Wicketd January 18, 2015 5:27 PM GMT
not really a dark one but olofi off 142 atm over hurdles...has managed to travel extremely well in very good company (the new one, rock on ruby, vanieteux)

won a greatwood...
Report CheltenhamRoar January 18, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
How exactly is Ted Veale a dark horse??CrazyLaugh
Report Benjy January 18, 2015 8:09 PM GMT
Join The Clan in the Pertempts is interesting imo. May struggle to get in off 133 though.
Report cufcno1 January 18, 2015 8:14 PM GMT
Thomas crapper for the novice handicap on the first day,roughly on last year's winners mark,been running against horses over 2 mile like vibrato valtat and irish saint on bad ground over too short a trip,stepped up in trip on good ground will bring improvement,and loves Cheltenham,2nd to Don poli in Martin pipe hurdle last year.16-1
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2015 8:25 PM GMT
Thomas Crapper has certainly been running over the wrong trip this season.
Report bigben January 18, 2015 9:17 PM GMT
Agree about Thomas Crapper. I wouldn't be to sure that he's been running over the wrong trip as a plot though. The trainer has some odd ideas IMO, I remember him saying that Restless Harry could be an Arkle horse, when in truth he really wanted 4 miles.
Report cufcno1 January 18, 2015 9:20 PM GMT
He was never going to beat vibrato valtat over 2 though,I think he is rated 138 now,last year's winner was 139,just with him liking Cheltenham,big believer in horses coming back the next year and running well again,horses for courses and all that
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
Next Sensation could well be ruined or could be a plot horse.
Report bigben January 18, 2015 9:24 PM GMT
Completely agree, I just think it might by accident rather than a plot. He's definitely of interest though.
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2015 9:30 PM GMT
Nothing better than festival form, plus TC is the best named horse in racing.
Report bigben January 18, 2015 9:41 PM GMT
He has indeed. If you've never heard it, have a listen to the commentary towards the end of his first bumper run Laugh
Report ReaseHeath January 18, 2015 9:42 PM GMT
I like Eastlake too though not sure any in the green and gold are true dark horses - he ran well yesterday under a tender,considerate ride at the business end of the race.

On a different note, every time I look, Malcolm Jefferson's stable seems to be out of form, he might end up with a couple of nicely handicapped horses when the festival comes around and knows how to get one ready for the festival.
Report cufcno1 January 18, 2015 9:56 PM GMT
My boss is Jefferson's niece so I will find out about his horses,especially attaglance,Brian Hughes,what a clown
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 18, 2015 9:57 PM GMT
lol ben, just did. down the pan
Report wellchief January 18, 2015 10:08 PM GMT
Guitar Pete (if still sound, hasn't run since October, so don't know) in County Hurdle.

2 times Grade 1 winner last year, won 1 Grade 2, and placed in the Triumph and now rated 132.
Report rogerthebutler January 19, 2015 8:14 AM GMT
If you wouldn't mind sharing any info on Jefferson's yard cufc.

He never sends one to The Festival for fun and whilst it hasn't been a thrilling year for his inmates, I'll be closely examining anything he enters irrespective of that.
Report cufcno1 January 19, 2015 2:55 PM GMT
Roger when he had a double a couple of years ago he told my boss he was as confident of them winning as much as when dato star ran,attaglance should have won last year ! Will do mate
Report ReaseHeath January 19, 2015 4:04 PM GMT
thanks, cufc (Carlisle?) - I see Attaglance is entered in Skybet Chase at Doncaster on Saturday, but would presumably need decent ground even if it's on.

Mindboggling achievement to get both him and Cape Tribulation to win at both Cheltenham and Aintree three years ago, not sure he really got the credit he deserved for that.

Urban Hymn could be interesting in the race Attaglance was runner up in last year also.
Report cufcno1 January 19, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
I am that stupid I only backed cape tribulation that year,and didn't back any of them at Aintree,do feel attaglance trained this year for the festival with good ground in mind !
Report spothediference January 19, 2015 4:25 PM GMT
keeping an eye on minella foru in hacp chases but dont know if they intend on bringing him over.
Report Benjy January 31, 2015 2:56 PM GMT

Jan 18, 2015 -- 8:09PM, Benjy wrote:


Join The Clan in the Pertempts is interesting imo. May struggle to get in off 133 though.


He'll get in now at least...

Report ReaseHeath February 9, 2015 6:09 PM GMT
more random thoughts:

Cape Tribulation is entered in Pertemps qualifier at Haydock this coming weekend...

Edeymi was barely put in the race during the qualifier at Musselburgh and still managed to finish fourth (looked like they were trying to finish 8th!).

Admittedly, probably the Pertemps qualifiers are tricky because there are many others with similar modus operandi.

Finally, I probably need to go back and watch Betfair Hurdle again, 'cos more than one hard luck story - Arzal's run was striking though, hampered to the extent that he dropped back to be last, nursed back into the race by his jockey and finishing a never nearer sixth - possibly flattered to some extent by running on through beaten horses who raced on the pace plus, in any event the front two were well clear. Nevertheless a lot to like about his effort, not least the ride he got from young conditional Paul O'Brien.

I was thinking County Hurdle, but looks like they're aiming at Imperial Cup first, hope the young lad keeps the ride...
Report gazovic February 10, 2015 11:07 AM GMT
^^^ re. Arzal...... Conds race mebbes?
Report gutfeeling February 10, 2015 4:39 PM GMT
Padge, Just hope the bookies haven't noticed it too otherwise it'll be saved for another day.
Report benkneale03 February 10, 2015 4:54 PM GMT
Stellar Notion was rated 137 a few weeks back and needed to run again to qualify for a handicap chase but  had to avoid any more than a 3lbs penalty to get in.

Think the above has more to do with his run  when 7th and  his career form now looking like 112117 rather than him being exposed so early - doesn't usually happen with that yard.

Hopefully gets priced up as exposed with a big point to prove off a big weight for a smaller yard. 16s now but hoping for 25/1 as more price up.
Report hunter71 February 10, 2015 5:14 PM GMT
cause of causes  dont know witch raceConfused
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 15, 2015 5:23 PM GMT
cause of causes .... dark horse? it's like a bonfire upon a lighthouse that's being struck by lightening on the darkest night of the year Laugh
Report gazovic February 15, 2015 7:38 PM GMT
^^^^^ brilliant. nearly typed lol
Report wellchief February 20, 2015 7:12 PM GMT
My choice of Guitar Pete never got any handicap entries.  Must have been injured after his last race.  Shame - a G1 winner rated 132.
Report wellchief February 20, 2015 7:31 PM GMT
Having a quick scan at the handicaps, its noticeable that PP are well the lowest price for Abyyssial in the Coral Cup - may be a sign of where he will run?
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 20, 2015 7:40 PM GMT
Massive fan of Abbyssial, you would think he will be run in either the coral cup or the county
Report wellchief February 20, 2015 7:46 PM GMT
Same here Sonko, his front running win at Punchestown last year was fantastic.  Yeah, I think he'll run in one of the County or Coral.  He's in the World Hurdle but really doubt he'll run in that, and I think the Coral Cup will suit him trip wise.

Talking myself into my first handicap bet at 16's, but at this stage I don't know whether it's too risky.  I suppose 365 will be 10's NRNB after midnight.
Report bigben February 21, 2015 6:10 PM GMT
Le Mercury in The Coral Cup.

He as staying on nicely last time over shorter & wasn't given a hard time.

I wonder if he's been campaigned with this race in mind?

At 20/1 NRNB I'm more than happy to take a chance on him.
Report needbinoculars February 22, 2015 11:39 AM GMT
Tango de juilley could be interesting if going for the plate. Venetia had 3 winners in race recently (same as pipe). Might be a bit younger and higher in the weights (142) than her other winners but if the likes of Rajdhani express and taquin de seuil run, he should have a nice weight. He's a right monkey though, pulls hard, whacks a few, better right handed ? - got Venetia winner all over it - but seems to be maturing nicely.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 1, 2015 12:37 PM GMT
Ted Veale-Grand annual

Probably
Report 1st time poster March 1, 2015 7:11 PM GMT
venetia will have to be able to turn form on at the switch of a light,umpteen runners since she had a winner,she always seems to find one but think she,s had her post xmas run this year
Report jimmy777 March 1, 2015 9:23 PM GMT
Trustan times for the Pertemps
Sew on Target for the Grand Annual
Guitar Pete
Gevrey Chambertin
Report SoYouThink March 1, 2015 10:03 PM GMT
Lite Duties for Charles Byrnes in the Pertemps. His only runner at the meeting. He'd have finished a lot closer in his qualifier but for a mistake 4 from home. I'd say Davy Russell rides. That Leopardstown qualifier looked a good race ... I'd also have a strong feeling for Mydor for Tony Martin.
Report deepingfox March 1, 2015 11:07 PM GMT
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR for Gordon Elliott in the Conditionals Hurdle.
Report Cash Is King March 1, 2015 11:46 PM GMT
No such thing as a Tony Martin trained or McManus owned "dark horse" when it comes to the Festival - every deluded conspiracy theorist latches on to their entries as soon as they're published and they end up overbet as a consequence.

If you're looking for genuine dark horses - all currently available to back at big fancy dan odds NRNB - how about Qewy (Supreme), Vino Griego (Festival Handicap), Storm Force Ten & Beatabout The Bush (both Fred Winter), Smashing (JLT), Sybarite (Pertemps), Eduard (Ryanair), Sign of a Victory (County) & Croco Bay (Grand Annual).
Report Fabulous March 2, 2015 12:24 AM GMT
I'll try.....

Novices Handicap - Oscar Fortune
Coral Cup - Ttebbob
Kim Muir - Colbert Station
County Hurdle - The Game Changer
Report aidankk. March 2, 2015 4:58 PM GMT
Wicklow Brave, Tiger Roll County
Vino Griego.
Report Saritamer March 2, 2015 9:21 PM GMT
Killala Quay - Novice H'cap Case
Rolling Star - Coral Cup
Royal Irish Hussar - County Hurdle
Astracad - Grand Annual
Report gazovic March 2, 2015 9:52 PM GMT
KQ backer signing in
Report Slabster March 2, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
I’ve taken 40/1 (Ladbrokes) about Sandra Hughes’ Art Of Payroll in the novice handicap chase. They have form with this horse regards getting him handicapped, but they over did things last season as he was too lowly rated to get into the County Hurdle. He absolutely cruised home off a mark of 127 in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown instead.

He’s been out for three runs over fences, and although a mark of 137 looks high on what he has done over the larger obstacles, he’s definitely capable of much better than what he has done and looks a real plot. He’ll improve for the likely better ground and at 40/1 he’s well worth a punt imo.
Report wellchief March 3, 2015 12:17 AM GMT
Just been to the Aintree preview night and Charlie Longsdon very sweet on Kilala Quay in the novice handicap chase.  Might wear first time cheekpieces.
Report stevo1 March 3, 2015 12:30 AM GMT
Fits good few trends wellchief,worth few bob at 20/1.
Report marychain1 March 3, 2015 12:40 AM GMT
id have bought you a beer wellchief if I'd known you were there too Grin
Report wellchief March 3, 2015 6:54 AM GMT
I was the one who asked the questions about Smad Place and Reve de Sivola mate.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2015 7:57 AM GMT
What did you ask about Smad Place mate.... And what was the response?!
Report wellchief March 3, 2015 8:07 AM GMT
They basically thought he weren't good enough mate, although that was John Parrot!

I said he'd been placed in two world hurdles and an RSA after an interrupted prep, but they liked the horse and would love to own him, but might lack the class and pace.

Same with Reve. I said how can he be 5 times the price of Zark and SDR when he beat Zark and at the weights beat SDR. They said if the World Hurdle was at Ascot he could win it but not at Cheltenham.

Not sure I agree with that to be honest. Won a cleeve, second in a cleeve and placed in a Neptune.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2015 8:12 AM GMT
Good stuff, cheers. I am sticking with SP in an open year and not unduly worried Parrot doesn't fancy him!
Report Shrewd_dude March 3, 2015 8:19 AM GMT
Viva Le France for Tony Martin.

Just think this has a similar profile to Savello last year (who I put on last years thread) and looks to be a similar plot. Expensive, well bred horse owned by big owner who has been given a few easy rides and kept for a big handicap before showing any decent form to recoup some of the costs.
Report marychain1 March 3, 2015 8:29 AM GMT
I was the one who asked the questions about Rajdhani Express and the Fred Winter
Report gazovic March 3, 2015 10:24 AM GMT
@shrewd. he wouldn't get in though would he?
Report rogerthebutler March 3, 2015 10:36 AM GMT
GRUMETI in the Grand Annual.

Has an absolutely ideal profile for this race, which King has won with Oh Crick previously. Classy, unexposed, goes on likely good ground, enjoys fast-paced race, recent prep run, not outside first four on any completed run this season and ahead of handicapper based on penultimate run.

Both Gitane De Berlais and Irish Saint have come out and won since the Scilly Isles Chase, where Grumeti came third (admittedly a long way off third) but that looks a particularly classy renewal.
Report gazovic March 3, 2015 11:27 AM GMT
decent shout roger
Report Cash Is King March 3, 2015 1:31 PM GMT
Good to see we're getting some decent posts on this forum page at long last instead of a whole host of phantom Tony Martin and Jonjo and JP McManus plots.  There are many shrewd punters who are users of the Betfair forum and if you can sort the wheat from the chaff there will be opinions expressed on these pages that will bear favourable comparison with those of the so-called (paid) experts.
Report Rathgorman82 March 3, 2015 1:48 PM GMT
Champagne James - good bumper winner for Ted Walsh has been brought along steadily over fences and running in handicap company recently. Very nice staying on close second last time at Naas in a 15 runner handicap, gets in here with a perfect mark and is surely better than has performed to date. 20/1 NRNB B3.65 and others or 25s take yer chance with Laddies.
Report marychain1 March 3, 2015 5:57 PM GMT
I've done a £1ew yankee on some of these for fun.
Report 1st time poster March 3, 2015 6:28 PM GMT
yep gary obrien really liked ch james for his last run ,has he put him up anywhere for chelt
Report Benjy March 3, 2015 7:13 PM GMT

Mar 3, 2015 -- 10:36AM, rogerthebutler wrote:


GRUMETI in the Grand Annual.Has an absolutely ideal profile for this race, which King has won with Oh Crick previously. Classy, unexposed, goes on likely good ground, enjoys fast-paced race, recent prep run, not outside first four on any completed run this season and ahead of handicapper based on penultimate run.Both Gitane De Berlais and Irish Saint have come out and won since the Scilly Isles Chase, where Grumeti came third (admittedly a long way off third) but that looks a particularly classy renewal.


Interesting shout this. Did he not win a Plumpton race with a bonus as well?

Report Benjy March 3, 2015 7:15 PM GMT
That was the hurdle race actually. I take it back Laugh
Report Saritamer March 3, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
You are spot on Benjy, think Grumeti would get a 60k bonus if winning at the Festival - definitely an interesting runner
Report Cash Is King March 3, 2015 11:57 PM GMT
Grumeti won one of the Plumpton bonus races so connections would receive an additional £60k if he wins any race at the Festival.  The bonus has only been won once before - by the Alan King trained Voy Por Ustedes!
Report taximan March 3, 2015 11:58 PM GMT
Sybarite ln the  Pertemps
Report duffy March 4, 2015 12:59 AM GMT
If it sneaks in down the bottom off of 133 then KILLULTAGH VIC in the conditional handicap hurdle. I really want Mullins to run him as a back up to Black Hercules in the Albert Bartlett as I believe he will be massively improved when stepped up to 3 miles.

Anyway, the 2.5 will do on the stiffer track, he is not a slow horse as his runs in last years bumper at the festival and at Punchestown show but he is being seen in a better light upped in trip, he won his maiden effortlessy enough and was then beaten by L'ami serge over 2 miles that was just too short. His final run was the one that really made me take notice of him, stepped into a hot grade 2 he travelled at the back of the pack, as the race was hotting up he missed out the 5th, 4th and 3rd last but it did not interrupt his smooth travelling style and he travelled into  contention around the outside and looked a threat before sticking on well enough to take 3rd, obviously his jumping is a question, but his performance in this race which was full of festival hopefuls and particularly how he travelled suggest to me that he's very well handicapped....I'm not a stats man as such but even I have noticed that he hits pretty much all the criteria for this race....he's also entered in the coral cup too...I'll be backing him wherever he turns up.
Report shockster March 4, 2015 1:23 PM GMT
Grand Vision only has 1 entry left and that is in the Kim Muir. I think he should have a rating in the low 140's but is in off 137 so has a bit in hand and 20/1 NRNB Ladbrokes has appealed to me.  Sure to be shorter if he takes his chance next Thursday and money back if he doesn't.
Report gamerawins March 6, 2015 4:15 AM GMT
Thunder Zone for the Fred Winter.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 13, 2015 5:13 PM GMT
Ted veale going for the grand annual
Ground too soft for him though

Cry
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