Cheltenham Festival
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I thought this race deserved a thread of its own. Usually overshadowed by the Supreme and Neptune (and largely has been this year as well), but I think this is the most competitive out of the three of them this year.
At this stage we've usually got a pretty short favourite, (the likes of Boston Bob, Bobs Worth, Briar Hill, At Fishers Cross etc have all gone off very short) but this year is wide open with four at the top of the market all looking potentially very good horses.
No More Heroes is bred to stay and put in an excellent performance against Shaneshill, a Grade 1 winning bumper horse. I think he'll appreciate the step up in trip, and if a few of the Giggi ones put in performances that we think they might, there could a lot of cash waiting to go on him on the day. Going from pretty average bumpers and maiden hurdles to straight into a G2 hurdle race against Shaneshill says they must think a lot of him.
Black Hercules is another one with good bumper form last year, although he didn’t turn up at Punchestown. He has won a couple of hurdles races already this year, and is another one who will appreciate 3m. There has been none of the Willie Mullins “which race will he run in” debate, as this has been his target all year.
Blaklion (same connections as The New One) was mightily impressive in winning a good 3m race at HQ giving weight away all round. Horses like Kings Palace and Coneygree have won this recently, and although for one reason or another, weren’t in the mix in the Albert Bartlett, both have shown this year they are two good quality horses.
He also has very close form with Parlour Games, current favourite for the Neptune, so he has got the form in the bag.
Value at Risk is now with Dan Skelton (from Philip Fenton), and is another one with a touch of class. Didn’t show his true form in the Champion Bumper, but then ran very well at Punchestown, only finishing 2 lengths behind Shaneshill and a head with Silver Concorde. Skelton has said that he might not be at his best on spring ground, and he will make a lovely chaser next year, but if he is to take his chance, he warrants respect.
I couldn’t really split the top three in the market at the moment, and Value at Risk could be the wildcard. I’m not sure if Vyta Du Roc is an intended runner either, but there appears to be decent quality throughout the field, rather than maybe just one or two like in previous years.
At this stage we've usually got a pretty short favourite, (the likes of Boston Bob, Bobs Worth, Briar Hill, At Fishers Cross etc have all gone off very short) but this year is wide open with four at the top of the market all looking potentially very good horses.
No More Heroes is bred to stay and put in an excellent performance against Shaneshill, a Grade 1 winning bumper horse. I think he'll appreciate the step up in trip, and if a few of the Giggi ones put in performances that we think they might, there could a lot of cash waiting to go on him on the day. Going from pretty average bumpers and maiden hurdles to straight into a G2 hurdle race against Shaneshill says they must think a lot of him.
Black Hercules is another one with good bumper form last year, although he didn’t turn up at Punchestown. He has won a couple of hurdles races already this year, and is another one who will appreciate 3m. There has been none of the Willie Mullins “which race will he run in” debate, as this has been his target all year.
Blaklion (same connections as The New One) was mightily impressive in winning a good 3m race at HQ giving weight away all round. Horses like Kings Palace and Coneygree have won this recently, and although for one reason or another, weren’t in the mix in the Albert Bartlett, both have shown this year they are two good quality horses.
He also has very close form with Parlour Games, current favourite for the Neptune, so he has got the form in the bag.
Value at Risk is now with Dan Skelton (from Philip Fenton), and is another one with a touch of class. Didn’t show his true form in the Champion Bumper, but then ran very well at Punchestown, only finishing 2 lengths behind Shaneshill and a head with Silver Concorde. Skelton has said that he might not be at his best on spring ground, and he will make a lovely chaser next year, but if he is to take his chance, he warrants respect.
I couldn’t really split the top three in the market at the moment, and Value at Risk could be the wildcard. I’m not sure if Vyta Du Roc is an intended runner either, but there appears to be decent quality throughout the field, rather than maybe just one or two like in previous years.
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Black Hercules for me at 10-1. Back to lay job.
Barry Geraghty says No More Heroes needs a bog. |
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Elliott has made know secret of No More Heroes and the regard he has for him but I have a slight inclination they are not prepared to take any kind of risks at this stage of his career. They keep talking about next season and the horse being a chaser. For that reason, I am inclined to hold tough on him until the trainer makes some firmer commitments as regards plans for him.
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Last year aside you usually just back the favourite in this and collect
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4 winning favs in 10 runnings, 2 x even money, 11/8, 15/8.
Not exactly a golden goose. |
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As a close friend so eloquently put it, this is a 'sac ripper' of a race. It's a brutal test of stamina for young horses and I wouldn't fancy running a big weak baby if I owned him/her, however big a chance he/she looked to hold.
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It's a joke race that's what it is.
2m5f of the royal and sunalliance, or whatever the hell it's called nowadays, is fine for a staying novice hurdler. |
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nothing wrong with this race probably my favorite race of the week and deserves its place at the festival
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Are you serious?
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yep it is for stayers whereas the neptune is for speedier types
it has contained far more better horses for the future than the neptune in recent seasons i love the race |
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Should be Supreme and Neptune and that's it. If you need 3 miles wait for Aintree.
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milsean let the form down of no more heroes today whom he beat in a nhf last year...disappointing run from milsean tbh
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Tapped for toe,potato race ideal for milsean !
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vyta du roc looks taylor made to me. he doesn't shirk a battle and has enough speed to get himself involved
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Went for Blaklion and Black Hercules in the end. Both of those will hopefully like good ground, whereas a few have said that the ground may be against No More Heroes.
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Blaklion entered in the Cleeve on trials day - bit of a bold entry.
Also entered into a 3m G2 at Doncaster and 2.5m Neptune Trial at Cheltenham on the same day. Would hope if a big run in one of those two. |
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Blacklion and Value at Risk both fluffed their lines a little bit yesterday, and a new candidate in Carraci Apache has entered the picture.
I wouldn't give up on the first two though. No More Heroes running today, and he is another one where we might find out how good he is on better ground. |
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PROMISING novice hurdler Value At Risk is a Grade 1 horse, reckons trainer Dan Skelton who is hoping the six-year-old can fulfil his potential in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham next month.
Beaten when favourite for a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, Value At Risk is a general 10-1 chance for the Albert Bartlett in which he could provide Skelton with his first festival winner. The trainer, whose other top-level runner at Cheltenham is likely to be outsider Bertimont in the Stan James Champion Hurdle, said in a Q&A with Racing Post readers on Monday night: "Value At Risk is a Grade 1 horse we think and we're looking at the Albert Bartlett for him." |
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The worry about VAR for me would be the ground. Quotes below are from the start of the season
Skelton said: 'Value At Risk is very high calibre. We will be going novice hurdling with him and he has come in fit. 'We would like to get him out pretty soon so that if we want to go for a good novice hurdle later in the winter we can. 'The guy who owns and bred him is a bit nervous that the quicker spring ground is not really his cup of tea. 'So, although we have big novice hurdle aspirations in the spring, they would not be the be all and end all. We have one eye on chasing the following season.' Blaklion is still the one for me in this. Got mugged on the line last time out at Donny, were the front two took each other one miles too far out. 14's is a big price imo. |
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This is a tough race to get a handle on. Year after year a lot of the main protagonists are lightly raced because connections are never keen to run their novices over a staying trip too regularly. I think it would need to be pretty soft for Value At Risk to take his chance and Fenton kept saying last year that he needed softish ground. It could be soft of course, but I was disappointed that he couldn't win the last day. Time may show that No More Heroes had a more difficult task than first thought when beaten by Outlander etc last time but his previous run against Shaneshill which propelled him to favouritism for this has been devalued a bit by the Mullins camp insisting Shaneshill was not right. The Mullins represenative looks like being Black Hercules and there seems to be a confidence building. Last year they had a similar type in Briar Hill who was backed in the weeks leading upto the festival from 10/1 to 2/1 - only to be wrestled to the ground by David Casey. the Mullins team are due a change of luck in this race, but for a stable who you would imagine this race would be made for, their record is uninspiring. I'm sure that Black Hercules will go off favourite if he makes it - and probably at a much shorter price than the 8/1 currently generally available. However, it may be worth waiting to see the final field and looking for the value then. Perhaps a Gigginstown runner from a less fashionable stable.
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That's utterly ridiculous delsie. Casey didn't do anything wrong.
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VAT won his maiden by 22 lengths (form boosted several times since) then finished 2nd in a Grade 2 over 20f where he battled on to the line. Step up in trip is right up his street. He'll ''give you a run for your money'' but might be vulnerable to something more classy, though he was only 2 lengths behind Shaneshill in the Irish Bumper last season. Good horse.
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Sorry CCM - you're quite right. Just one of those things. Pocket talking - was on Briar, Arctic Fire and On His Own that day. One faller and 2 nose losers. What can I say? Thought I was with Ruby or Townend and ended up with Casey.
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I think i will be on Blak Lion, even thou his isnt quite good enough to win but his hurdling is the best i seen from a novice this season, cant see him being worst than 4th.
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I'm no Casey fan, but he was unlucky on Briar Hill. That was my biggest low point of last years festival. Has a number of ante post singles and cost me a decent ante post trixie
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With Vautour and Faugheen CCM?
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Faugheen and Quevega mate.
Sadly, I didn't have a penny on Vautour yet he was still the stand out winner last year for me. |
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Yeah - he was awesome wasn't he. Not sure what to make of his season. One mistake seems to have cost him his reputation and a crack at The Arkle. Perhaps we will see him at his best in the JLT. I dunno - looks like a Cheltenham 2 miler to me. Do you fancy him over 2 and a half CCM?
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I also find myself leaning towards Blaklion at the moment although there's something about this race that's telling me to look past those near the top of the betting. And that's not just because outsiders like Bertie's Dream, Brindisi Breeze & Very Wood have won this race recently.
Black Hercules - Only the two runs over hurdles and I suppose it's an obvious thing to say and it gets said so often about novices around now but what has he beaten? It also looks like he'll be heading there without a run since 07Dec14. Also I remember in the lead-up to the Bumper last year the Mullins camp were saying he wanted soft ground (and Shaneshill wanted good ground). No More Heroes - I like him but the "one for the future" type comments worry me. This horse was minded last season with the future in mind and I think they are taking a careful approach with him again. I know he had excuses on his most recent run. Caracci Apachi - I thought he took an age to wear down Blaklion. Blaklion probably went for home too soon too. Value At Risk - Have not seen either of his races but looks short enough in the betting for a horse who was beaten last time out. So for Blaklion by default but will be looking at those down the betting when plans firm up a bit. Also I'll keep an eye on here to see if anyone can make a case for a dark horse. |
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On the case for Blaklion, I like the fact that he has a bit more experience over hurdles than his main rivals. Also quite experienced from his days as a point to pointer. He hasn't been disgraced in losing to a fancied horse for the Neptune and on his last race he went for home too soon and seemed to get wore down by a very strong stayer. He might even improve for the better ground (two wins on good ground last season) and he's a winner at Cheltenham which is always a plus for any horse going into the Festival.
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SYT, what we need is an irish expert to tell us which ones will like the better ground.
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Martello Tower is an interesting one at a price. His attitude is first class and he refuses to ever lie down. If he goes on the prevailing ground I could see him hanging around for a long way. If he got into a battle he might take some holding. This is a race where you often see horses empty in the straight - they go from looking like they have a ton to treading water in a heartbeat. If you watch Martello's races it gives you hope that he might be the type to dog it out.
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Tbh Delsie I do. Going to cost me a packet as I have a few quid on him for The Arkle. But the way he won last time, and the way he seemed to power through the last furlong, he looked like a horse who would easily go further. I know you shouldn't change targets because of one horse, but UDS does look something special, and I have to say, if he was mine, Id fancy the JLT.
Fortunately I have a few bob on at 6-1 to win any race, but it will only get me marginally in front after all the Arkle losses |
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Delsie im on Martello Tower,got cracking chance on form,and could improve further for better ground.
Still a big price for this,also backed Thomas Brown who also is tough as nails. |
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Good luck stevo. I do think he has a good chance. Hopefully you'll clear some more to pile on Hargam!
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Black Hercules - Only the two runs over hurdles and I suppose it's an obvious thing to say and it gets said so often about novices around now but what has he beaten?7
Agree with that STY. I have backed him at 10's, but I do think based on what he's achieved so far, he shouldn't be the market leader. Although he finished well ahead of VAR in the Cheltenham Bumper, that was well and truly reversed at Punchestown. VAR also has much stronger hurdles form, so I don't see why he should be a bigger price than BH. That said, with the usual Mullins/Walsh factor, Black Hercules will no doubt go off fav, and probably quite short. Probably not as short as Briar Hill last year, but pretty short anyway. I keep coming back to Blaklion at 14's. Backed him before his defeat at Donny at 11's, but that hasn't put me off him, as I think there are genuine excuses. I'm tempted to go in again, as outside of the handicaps, I don't think there are many better value 14/1 shots out there at the moment. |
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Agree about Blaklion wellchief. As long as he doesn't miss the gig, there is no other race for him. Course form and won't mind quicker ground. Hard to keep out of the frame, especially if STD can ride.
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What's your views on fletchers flyers run Yesterday...went for hone Early on ground he didn't seem to relish. Does anybody know if the spud race is the target still?
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Killultagh Vic........... is by far the dark horse of the race, when non-runner no-bet comes available........... I have no doubt this fellow will stay 3 miles and hopefully his connections are out spoken and plan a trip across. IMO his jumping improved when the pace is solid t/out, I was shocked to see him run over 2 miles but it did show he can jump fluently at speed. The pace was sedate last timeout and he did miss a few but to his credit he stuck on well. A solid pace at Chel....... he will be a danger to all.
If he does not make it over Blacklion has to be the call to make it a double for the connections in the week. (TNO) |
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Anyone know why Black Hercules hasn't been seen out in the last few months?
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