Cheltenham Festival
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I see that Tom starts his weekly A/P advice on Cheltenham. The first race he looks at is the Champion Hurdle.
For a bit of fun I thought I would ask fellow forumites what selection at the price would they put up if they had The Pricewise job.
We have until 6pm Monday to make our selections before his get leaked.
For a bit of fun I thought I would ask fellow forumites what selection at the price would they put up if they had The Pricewise job.
We have until 6pm Monday to make our selections before his get leaked.
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Replies: 34
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I CAN SEE HE CAN GO FOR JEZKI E / WAY BET TO NOTHING TYPE JOB.
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Jezki 6/1. Profit for a place and has the ability to win at his best. No brainer
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Are you going for Jezki for yourself then Howdi?
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HI Steamer i have huge respect foe jezki but think the top are v good faugheen may just be best we have seen since istabraq - key to the race foe me i cant see who could possible place bar top 3.
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heres a thought will we get 8 runners .....
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Maybe he will tip The New One. Faugheen will drift slightly then the man himself will smack Faugheen #shrewd
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just checked Official BHB ratings Faugheen already rated only 1 pound inferior to jezki and one pound superior to The New One.
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Jezki's the obvious one, I suppose.
The trouble with the more 'off the wall' ones is that you don't know whether a lot of them will show up or not. Irving looks overpriced to me (lazy collateral form analysis based on Arctic Fire's proximity to Fly and Jezki at Christmas) but he's so fragile that he's surely not certain to make the start line. Not sure why Irving is available at a bigger price than Arctic Fire given the Fighting Fifth result.They found a foot abcess after his Christmas Hurdle debacle which sounds like a perfectly legitimate excuse (I'm in no way saying he would've beat Faugheen - the distance between Faugheen and Purple Bay suggests he would n't - but that clearly was n't his true running). You also know he will still be targeted at the race in all likelihood (at least Seagull will when his colleagues ring around the trainers) and that if he gets there, Nicholls must be fairly confident he can be competitive. You've got to find excuses for three of Irving's last four runs which is stretching credibility but of those in front of him in the market apart from the big three and Arctic Fire, Rock on Ruby and Annie Power are surely unlikely runners and I just wonder whether they might think about bypassing the Festival for Punchestown (and possibly Aintree?) with Hurricane Fly? (unless it comes up soft, of course). So I'd be a bit disappointed if he went for Jezki 'cos it's too obvious - I know the initial reaction to Irving is 'can't win' but I've thought that about some of his tips before! (and I'm hopeless at guessing them generally). |
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yes agree with you ^^^ only horse i wouldnt lay for a place at bigger odds.
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If I was pricewise I'd probably tip Jezki. As for Segal, I think he will pick one of these (in order of likelihood):
Jezki (odds on to be the choice) Purple Bay Hurricane Fly Arctic Fire Irving Garde la Victoire I'd be surprised if it's anything else. |
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yeah think he will go for a" spectacular " big priced tip either purple bay or artic fire
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Recon he'll go for Purple Bay E/W
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Usually goes for something much longer than Jezki, I'll suggest Arctic Fire ew.
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Tough race for Pricewise to be fair. Seems to be between the obvious three and of them he can only really pick Jezki.
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Ive also put this thread on your competitions for a bit of fun. Put your selections on there if you want
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if i were him i would have a stab at irving at 50...he has a bit to find but i don't think he is a complete no hoper at all, in fact i'm going to have a small stab to cover my own book before he potentially screws the price up
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if irving places in a champion hurdle i will happily travel to ditcheat wearing nothing but a kauto star scarf and attempt to school the horse over hurdles in the yard
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Pricewise is getting pretty to pick Ante Post lately, seems likely that ARCTIC FIRE at the odds, would be his choice, as he wouldn't tip any of the three favs at their odds, Ante Post.
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"pretty easy" to pick I meant (missed the easy out! - Doh!)
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Could it be josses hill,didn't exactly take to fences and could go back over hurdles failing again !
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I think it might be Sign Of A Victory at 50/1.
Horse hated the slop at Kempton and Henderson's team are still very in and out. Vaniteux looks exposed now, so wouldn't be surprised if this is the Hendo number one. And no, I don't really think he can win! |
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I'd imagine Irving or Arctic Fire.
Well that's who I'd pick at the prices. |
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anyone heard yet ?
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arctic fire all blue on oddschecker, as is tno and jezki
 lets see him go for the fly |
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Pricewise selection is Arctic Fire
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^ 1pt ew @ 33/1 (Boyles)
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Arctic Fire can improve and looks value at 25-1
TIMING is a vital component of a good ante-post bet and if truth be told today is probably not the ideal day to get stuck into the Stan James Champion Hurdle. That is because the two horses at the head of the market have been superb this season and appear to have rock-solid credentials. Anything outside the top four in the market is going to have to improve a lot to get involved, let alone win, writes Tom Segal. The problem for ante-post punters - and it is a reoccurring theme these days - is that there really is no point in backing Faugheen or The New One now as they will almost certainly be bigger prices on the day, when the bookies start to get competitive and try to attract the casual punters. With ten weeks to go, however much you fancy Faugheen, you would have to be mad to back him now at 5-4. That is not to say I don't think Faugheen won't win, because he has looked brilliant on all starts, but he has never taken on a horse anything like as good as The New One or Jezki, or indeed his superstar stablemate Hurricane Fly. The New One was unlucky last year and I think he would have won if he hadn't been badly hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor. He has looked an even better horse this year, jumping with a lot more fluidity, and of the two at the head of the market, I marginally prefer The New One at this stage. However, exactly the same reasoning applies to him as to Faugheen. I don't think there is anything The New One can do before March to make his price contract from the 11-4 it is now. Sure, if something was to happen to Faugheen he would get shorter, but he'll be at least 3-1 on the day if the principals all turn up. It would be easy just to tick off last year's winner Jezki as the value at 6-1, given how much he improved in the hood last season. However, I thought last year's Champion Hurdle fell apart with Our Conor coming down and taking out The New One, My Tent or Yours pulling like a mustang and only just failing to get up, and Hurricane Fly running miles below form. Yes, he looked good at Punchestown afterwards but that was a three-runner race and once again the Fly was nowhere near his best. Jezki is clearly a very good horse, but he's not a brilliant one and I can't see him beating Faugheen or The New One, which makes his current price pretty unappetising. In terms of form there can be no doubt the dual winner and 21-time Grade 1 winner Hurricane Fly is a silly price at 14-1. However, Cheltenham is not his ideal track and I thought he was struggling on the spring ground last season. He simply didn't look happy at Cheltenham or Punchestown and if the Fly is to regain his crown the ground is going to have to be soft. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the Fly were kept at home and saved for Punchestown this season, with the stable having Faugheen, so I can't suggest backing him now either. Consequently, the only semblance of value left is with another horse trained by Willie Mullins, Arctic Fire at 25-1 with one of the firms who are non-runner no bet. He surprised a few with his run behind Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown last week but didn't surprise me, and a strongly run two-mile hurdle on faster ground at Cheltenham should see him improve again. Arctic Fire finished only a length behind Jezki that day but is five times the price and he can improve again in a better race. He will need a strong pace, but JP McManus ran a pacemaker last year and two at Leopardstown, so I can't imagine there will be anything but a strong pace in March and if that's the case, Arctic Fire could certainly hit the frame. Stan James Champion Hurdle ante-post advice Arctic Fire 1pt each-way at 25-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, who are both non-runner no bet |
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Aye agree with him that's the best value.
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It would be easy just to tick off last year's winner Jezki as the value at 6-1, given how much he improved in the hood last season. However, I thought last year's Champion Hurdle fell apart with Our Conor coming down and taking out The New One, My Tent or Yours pulling like a mustang and only just failing to get up, and Hurricane Fly running miles below form.
Yes, he looked good at Punchestown afterwards but that was a three-runner race and once again the Fly was nowhere near his best. Jezki is clearly a very good horse, but he's not a brilliant one and I can't see him beating Faugheen or The New One, which makes his current price pretty unappetising. Agree with every word of that. |
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That is not to say I don't think Faugheen won't win.
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It's just nine weeks Tom!
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It looks like a man desperately seeking a bet because his editor wants when when there's really not one there. He admits he's hoping to hit the frame. That's half your stake on the win dead then?
Last year he forced it in this race backing Annie Power ante-post when there was way too many doubts. A few years ago didn't he get 3 or 4 winners on the first day, putting them up on the Tuesday morning. Why waste his profits ante-post when he's a master on the day? |
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I would think the original idea was to get people buying the post on these boring Tuesdays in the run up to the festival. It would probably work better if he was allowed to look at all the races over a couple of days and just choose what he fancies and leave some alone. That said maybe he would have missed Newmill 33- in the C Chase when Kauto Star and Moscow Flyer were in the race.
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Will Sir Tom manage to get an anti post tip to the start line this year?
Very few of his tips have lined up in the races over the last couple of years and zero winners (I think) While its not easy to give big priced tips surely this on is based on 1 run in a bog??last time out!!! While not very exciting surely the best value has to be the defending champ at 6/1? He will improve for the better spring ground and the champion hurdle is a great race for multiple winners. While I don't think it can win and he isn't anywhere near his best at Chelt 'the fly' to sneak a place is also much better value at 14/1...... |