Champagne Fever - Festival Target

CF travelled like a dream in the King George when stalking the pace and to most eyes appeared just not to get home over the trip. He seemed totally at ease not making it and to my eyes all over a Ryanair horse where his proven liking for Cheltenham and better ground would come to the fore.

The horse does not have one piece of 2 mile CHASE form that says he can win a Champion Chase but was impressive over the Ryanair trip at Clonmel and again on Thursday, where even serving it up to Don Cossack 3 weeks after a pretty hard race at Kempton was totally acceptable on ground that was far more to DC liking.

In summary, I can see CF sitting handy in the Ryanair, taking it up at the top of the hill and galloping all the way to victory.

Forcing the pace over an inadequate trip in the CC will end in the horse running a respectable 3rd or 4th as I just cannot see him having the best of the rest (2 mile specialists) off the bit and hard at it rounding the final bend.

Collector - Western Warhorse

And alleged whilst we are answering that question what has Ballydoyle got to do with it other than stable next years Derby winner?

So yet again he bangs on about AF beaten 34 lengths in the Arkle as a reason to totally dismiss his chances in the QM,but conveniently forgets to mention the reason behind the large distance beaten.
Complete ignorance.

Voila we have a winner.and he's not running so name another

Buddelia-and the reason is?

*this years Derby winner (JFK or Ol man river)

The form of his arkle 2nd will see him bang there,let's face it,anything could win the race !

I just wonder if you said to someone.....

What price a horse who beat the Tingle Creek winner who then beat Sprinter Sacre the best we have seen for ages...if you said to that same person 10/1 what I wonder would they say?....

You know sunshine,you just choose  to forget it to back up your point. If you are going to discuss horses chances at least do it properly and don't leave important things out to suit you.

Uxizandre is bigger price,he beat DB fair and square,and that was this season.

Mullins said after King George "he looks like a Ryanair horse" why would he say that if he was a obvious CC winner in waiting?

Eh?ive explained why I'm on C Fever quite clearly...

2m Bumper winner
2m Supreme winner taking care of subsequent Chanp Hurdle 1-2
2m Arkle beat a nose beating subsequent Tingle Creek and conqueror of S Sacre by 5 lengths

Sorry what more do you want me to say?

What did Mullins say on thu night?

He is not an obvious CC horse in waiting but his credentials are far better than 10/1 when Sacre and SDG can be quite easily discounted.

Dodging Bullets has improved a lot this season, and could easily turn that form around.

He's on an upward curve and Champagne Fever has at best stayed the same.

DB has been treated for ulcers and the tongue tie has improved him.

Can't rely on races 2 and 3 years ago as a basis of backing him this year when he hasn't won a 2m chase.

Are you are believing what Mullins says?
Fwiw,I think CF should run in the QM,think if he front runs in that race it's his best chance of running his best race,don't think he would be good enough personally,but I do think he would run well,and it's possible on decent ground at Cheltenham he could be good enough.
Race is open now.

**** me we're gettin there slowly but surely.....

still waiting for the list of only possible winners...

Well they have tried longer distances and it ain't working. Stands to reason to me to have a go at a distance he's done well at in the past at a course he's proven at. Just hope for any who back him that his so called expert connections ain't confused him too much,cos now he's gonna be ridden differently yet again!! That's IF he goes QM.

Ive backed one horse.no more.whole field could win it obviously but C Fever 10/1 EW NRNB is my play. Won't back anything else

heres my take for what its worth:

Dodging Bullets is the solid each way bet at this stage. The reason for me saying this is because currently right now as we speak he has won the two Grade 1 2m chases ran in the Uk. The Tingle Creek has long been the best Champion Chase trial and he won it fair and square. Now today he has beat Sprinter Sacre in a time that was very respectable in that ground. He also beat Twinlight very comfortably and Twinlight was on the back of a Grade 1 2m win in Ireland. There is simply no hiding that he has the strongest form this season and nicholls seems to be improving the horse with each run.

Now for the others:

Sprinter Sacre ran very respectfully today but I cannot back him for the champion chase as things stand at the odds he is. He bled today and at the festival there is less respect paid to any vulnerability in a horse than anywhere else. They go a million miles an hour and it is far too risky at this stage to be backing him given the last time he showed his best form was the best part of 2 years ago as others have stated.

Champagne Fever is a horse I respect massively. I know alot of people will doubt him and question his general level of form to win a champion chase. Im of the opinion he has a good chance. He has been beaten a total of 1 nostril in 3 festival races over 2m with all manner of good horses behind him and I don't think you can ignore that. I know people will say he couldn't win a crap arkle. However he was beaten a nose and there are no crap Grade 1s at the festival anyone who knows anything about racing will tell you that. Plus lets think back just a few years to Finians Rainbow winning the queen mother. Guess what he was 2nd in his arkle beaten by Capatin Chris who wasn't even a 2miler in the end. These thing happen and will happen again they are not machines. Fever has a chance as a course specialist.

Sire De Grugy is another who has not been seen this season and I cannot be betting a horse for the festival who has not ran so far this season at those odds when we are approaching the end of January. For me it is illogical and again as with Sprinter Sacre I don't think the odds represent value until we have seen him on the track running to somewhere near his best. Until then its not for me.

Al ferof is a horse who is very hard to assess. I actually think he ran a very solid race in the King George and stayed the trip well enough. The owner has made no secret of his wish to run the horse in the Gold Cup. Then it is announced shortly after the king george that he is stepping all the way down to 2miles for a bash at the Champion Chase. The last time the horse ran over 2miles was the 2012 arkle. I feel Al ferof at his best could run a place but id be surprised if a 10 year old running over 2miles for the first time in 3 years was to win the Champion Chase.

Of the other obvious horses I feel Simply Ned and Uxizandre are just short of the class needed to win this and Special Tiara has 2 ways of running and I don't recall inconsistent horses winning champion chases. The only other 2 that are of some interest to me are Hidden Cyclone who had the whole field in a pickle until over the last in the Ryanair last season and I think he's certainly underrated and overpriced and Captain Conan who was an excellent novice and is a huge price and I think he ran in the wrong race as a novice in the JLT as similarly to hidden cyclone looked to be going the best until over the last when stamina gave out. I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.

Mullins was quoted in the RP after the King Gorge as saying that "CF looks like a Ryanair horse"

The debate was started by RR after Thursday's race and at the end of the day he holds the cards. He is obviously determined to keep his horses apart and possibly still sees Djakadam as his Ryanair horse.

It seems a bit of an overeaction to discount a horses chance over 2 1/2 miles at a track and on likely more favoured ground, just because he was possibly going to beaten a couple of lengths by a top in form horse who was favoured by conditions bearing in mind CF had a hard race in the King George.

CF will be in the Champion Chance as sure as day becomes night guys

Good summary bigben.

finished behind Dynaste as stamina gave out in the king george and was on his way to finish behind don when he fell as stamina gave out. why on earth would they go ryanair

thanks well chief. great name btw

Bigben, think your summary is first class but to say "why on earth would they go Ryanair" makes the CC sound like a no brainer.

They run the horse over 3 miles because they thought he was a stayer, the horse was travelling well into the straight but think everyone agrees he ran out of stamina. he then runs 3 weeks later after a gut wrenching run and still has a top form fresher Don Cossack in a race at the last and all of a sudden he can't even get 2 1/2 miles. Did he spriny=t away over the trip at Clonmel only because he was facing poor opposition?

You will probably be right in that he will run in the CC (wouldn't completely rule out Vautour running, unless he blows out tomorrow) but surely to run in Ryanair wouldn'y be that bad a decision

Vautour not even entered in qm

donkey's ears on :-o

He should be running in the Gold Cup this horse at a trip he's bred for. I don't agree he didn't stay the King George trip. He was left for dead by Silviniaco Conti and kept plugging on all the way to the line. He ran well on Thursday until he fell.

Im not saying he wouldnt run a nice race in the ryanair. I just feel with Sprinter Sacres run today, added to richie riches comments, added to Fever's cheltenham 2mile record, added to the obvious stamina doubts theres only 1 race he's going to run in. With Sprinter Sacre not at his best I think its the easier option aswell.

C fever has no chance of winning a Ryanair.struggles over 2.5m why would you back it over a stiff 2m 5f?dont get the ryanair argument at all.horse racing is made harder than it is with certain prope.this horse is a front running 2 miler and this division lacks a superstar with SDG on the sidelines and Sacre (sadly) not the force of old

C Fever had D Bullets well beat in Arkle...one could say Mullins has made a right arse of Fever whilst Nicholls has excelled in the training of Bullets

You may be right, I'm not a good enough judge to say "he can't win CC" but don't see a bit of 2 mile Chase form to say he will win it.

Whereas strongly feel he should be given a chance over 2 1/2 with his optimum conditions.

When all is said and done he will probably win neither.

And one would be right in saying that imo.

About Mullins and Nichols that is

So you think - the first 7 home plugged on to line in the king george. Really at a loss to see how you think CF's run in the King George is saying Gold Cup horse to you.

Djakadam hammered Road To Riches in a 4 horse race last season, horses can improve and have off days

Don cossack is no mug, and was more prepped. All in all CF did quite well, and i do believe if he goes to the ryanair with preferable conditions, he'd have a better chance there than the qm. If they go there then fair enough. I wouldn't back him for it. Hopefully he gets there and runs well wherever he goes.

Agree, great to watch when on song, it was a pleasure watching him in last years Arkle

He should be a given a proper chance to prove himself over 3m+. It was a big ask to expect him to win a King George at his first try at the trip - plus if you watched the race without any history of the horse, the only conclusion you could arrive at was the horse needs to go further. Connections should have had some proper conviction in their plan instead of half-heartedly taking on the 3m experiment. They are caught in no man's land now and are no further on than they were at the start of the season.

Graeme, I always have your thread in the back of my mind re Willie Mullins chasers, and his poor Cheltenham record with them, considering the Arsenal he's had.

He's had 33 winners (below) and only 5 are chasers (15%), so 85% are hurdlers, and all of the chases were novice chases.


#    Year    Horse                    Race
33    2014    Don Poli                Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle   
32    2014    Faugheen                Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle   
31    2014    Quevega                OLBG (David Nicholson) Mares' Hurdle   
30    2014    Vautour                Supreme Novice Hurdle   
29    2013    Champagne Fever            Supreme Novice Hurdle   
28    2013    Hurricane Fly                Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)   
27    2013    Quevega                David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle   
26    2013    Back In Focus                John Oaksey NH Chase   
25    2013    Briar Hill                Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
24    2012    Champagne Fever            Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
23    2012    Quevega                David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle   
22    2012    Sir Des Champs            Jewson Novices' Chase (Grade 2)   
21    2011    Hurricane Fly                Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)   
20    2011    Quevega                David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle   
19    2011    Sir Des Champs            Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle   
18    2011    Final Approach            Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)   
17    2010    Quevega                David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle   
16     2010     Thousand Stars             Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (grade 3)   
15    2009    Quevega                David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle   
14     2009    Cooldine                 RSA Chase   
13    2009    Mikael D'Haguenet            Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   
12    2008     Cousin Vinny                 Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
11    2008    Fiveforthree                Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle (grade 1)    
10    2007    Ebaziyan                 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle (grade 1)    
9     2005    Missed That                 Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1    
8    2004    Rule Supreme                Royal & Sun Alliance Chase   
7    2002     Scolardy                 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Class A) (Grade 1)    
6    2000     Joe Cullen                 Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
5    1998    Alexander Banquet             Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
4     1998     Florida Pearl                 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase   
3    1997     Florida Pearl                 Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
2    1996     Wither Or Witch            Weatherbys Champion Bumper Grade 1   
1    1995    Tourist Attraction            Citroen Supreme Novices' Hurdle

no bumper winners then?

Probably only 60% hurdlers with 8/33 record in the Bumper.

so you think. Let me get this straight. Your saying that if you watched the King George and the only conclusion you could come up with was that CF needed further? Are you drinking tonight?

Out on his feet,was just about to stop on Thursday when falling,it's a 2 miler that got beat a nostril in the arkle and loves Cheltenham on better ground !

SoYouThink 17 Jan 15 23:06 Joined: 14 Jun 11 | Topic/replies: 1,095 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog
Probably only 60% hurdlers with 8/33 record in the Bumper.

Good spot.  Schoolboy error - think it's time for me to log off

Also to persist with the 3m argument, his highest OR came in the King George, a race he started as the lowest OR rated runner.

In response to Big Ben the Horse man

He should be a given a proper chance to prove himself over 3m+. It was a big ask to expect him to win a King George at his first try at the trip - plus if you watched the race without any history of the horse, the only conclusion you could arrive at was the horse needs to go further. Connections should have had some proper conviction in their plan instead of half-heartedly taking on the 3m experiment. They are caught in no man's land now and are no further on than they were at the start of the season.

soyouthink

ok you've put that bit in bold now but I absolutely disagree. you could have no history of horse and still have eye balls in your head and see he didn't get home.

my view is that champagne fever will end up tripless and for his entire career people will say he was suited to this or that trip.

yes people point out his 2m record at festival is top notch which it is, but what they forget is that the horse isnt getting faster. if he had proper 2m speed he would have gone for the champion hurdle after winning that supreme. but they chose to go chasing maintaining his best form would be over further as he is a stayer.  is it such a shock that his best 2m form is at cheltenham only because thats where you need stamina to win? and he was also given an absolutely masterful ride in the supreme.

then you look at mullins record with chasers.

he's a high class tripless horse who is going to struggle big time to win a major race.

In my opinion Champagne Fever is a horse with a big engine. Even in the 4 races he's won since his maiden hurdle, he's just kept on galloping relentlessly. The in race comments are all "stayed on well", etc. The King George was a good run for a horse having his first try at the distance and also in the context of him being a bit too keen for his own good and the lowest rated runner going into the race. It was also his sixth start over fences whereas everything else had twice that. He was left for dead when Silviniaco Conti quickened up and kept plugging away until the line. They should have persisted with him over the distance at least once more that's what I took from the race.

CF has not won a grade 1 chase and that's the problem not the trips.I think he always going to find one or two better.
QM looks his best chance to me.

bred to be a chaser but did better as a hurdler imo.....

Fair point well chief. Champ Fever and on his own ran big races last festival to be fair, and i thought boston bob would have won the rsa if not for the jockey.  I back mullins chasers myself, i just prefer their price to be reasonable.  Yeah though, his record with hurdlers is alot better.

Well they really need to make their minds up re his optimum trip,and then campaign him accordingly.All they are achieving this season is to completely confuse the horse and keep riding him differently according to the distance of the race hes in.
Whether hes good enough at the top level is secondary,first get the trip right and then we will find out if hes good enough.
Sometimes wonder about these  trainers,supposed to be top of the tree but I do shake my head at times.
Nicholls is doing the same with Al Ferof,that horse is 10 now and they still don't know his optimum trip!!
They still have time on their hands with Cfever but they wont much longer,before they know it they will realise what a b@lls up they have made with his campaigning,and it will be too late.
And don't get me started with Henderson and Oscar Whisky!!!!!!!!!!!

It's not always as black and white as that though budd.

Yeh, fair point Brandy,but take Al Ferof, hes 10 now and start of season Nicholls said he will be campaigned for the Gold Cup and now they are talking Queen Mother!! Fair enough for young horses still a bit unsure about, but a 9/10 yr old??

Also re Al Ferof,his best chase performances have come after a good break,and surely his trainer knows that,yet he says he will look at running him at Ascot in Feb!!

Re Cfever.....If you look at his form, apart from the 2 end of season runs(which I tend to take with a pinch of salt),his most consistent and best form is over 2m.
Maybe,just maybe, Mullins and co have realised this with talk of the Champion Chase.
But I would not bank on it!!

I think Nicholls is a lot more decisive than Mullins. At least in the case of Al Ferof, it was immediately clear after the King George what Nicholls wanted to do next. With Champagne Fever, nobody was sure not even the trainer. He's had a run since and we're still none the wiser. We've seen this with Ballycasey and Boston Bob and is it happening again with Vautour?

If you look at ratings which I'm not sure how much value people place on these things, but Champagne Fever best performance is the King George. I can see why someone might say his best form is over shorter but I'm not sure it's strictly true to say that either. He'd have probably run around his KG mark of 162 had he stayed on his feet last week too.

Thing is though,he ran AF in the King George the previous year and he ran a similar race then,maybe a bit better this time but fairly similar.
They then decided after that to go down in trip to the Ryanair.Ran ok but never looked like winning.
Then following season he says he will be campaigned for the Gold Cup!! Then he runs a real good race at Ascot over 2 and a half,possibly his best chase thus far,and then decides to go King George again...fair enough hes campaigning for Gold Cup,he runs ok but cannot go the pace at the end and runs on into 3rd at the death.
Now hes going back in trip again,and possibly right back to 2m!!, and to boot hes talking about running him in Feb,when hes best fresh.......well that's what the formbook says anyway.

Bl00dy mess imo.

Well my interpretation of Al Ferof's KG performance was that he ran well and was staying on. I would have said the Gold Cup was the race for him at the Festival and if not then the Ryanair. We probably never got to see the best of him though because of his injury.

A good ground Gold Cup would be interesting imo.

Thing is SYT his best 2 performances over fences have been since the injury. Both after a long break.

Paddy Power win off 159 in a bog was some performance, but I thought his first win this year was visually the most impressive.

I think in a 2m Championship race he'd be out of his comfort zone almost the whole way round.

Fresh, good ground, and Ryanair trip is perfect for him.

Yeh,maybe Nicholls has finally decided Ryanair is his race,but owner may well be wanting different.
Still don't explain running in Feb though.
Like you say Chief,Fresh,good ground and Ryanair,although I still would like to see him fresh on good ground in a Gold Cup.

Well beat in Ryanair last year. Horse isn't a Grade 1 animal anymore.

Well that's certainly a possibility,but im talking about the horses best distance and his campaigning,not how good he may or may not be.
I don't have a problem if a horse is proved not up to the level,just that hes given every chance to show his level.

I'd love to see Ruby back on him in the Ryanair as well, got a great tune out of him first time out this year, and great to see him riding for Nicholls again.

Sam Twiston Davies can ride Double Ross, Champagne Fever can go to the QM, Djakadam may be Gold Cup routed if winning the Irish Hennessey or the Thyestes; Felix Yonger may not come over and Ballycasey has disappointed.  All points to a triumphant return for Ruby in the winning enclosure on a Nicholls horse again

- Wellchief

I'd be going for the GC with AF, for sure, he's been staying on in the KG for the past 2 years suggesting that the extra distance would be at least interesting......look at a replay of them turning in in last years Ryanair and you'll see why he shouldn't be running in that....Dynaste and him started picking up together but AF couldn't live with Dynaste's pace and that one ran away from him...with AF staying on to the line.

Was quoted Mullins by PW as giving Fever another run???

Personally I think the Champion Chase is 100% right race for Champagne Fever. Who knows what Sire de Grugy will be like, shadow hands over Sprinter Sacre and Fever easily beat Dodging Bullets in Arkle last year and will beat him again at Cheltenham.

Can't see him being out of the first 3 come March

If he is thinking of giving him another run before March then he really is a total fool. May as well just run it week in week out. What the hell is this man doing with this horse ffs?

i don't think it would be in question if he hadn't just hit the deck^^^

You'd imagine he'll run in Champion Chase given how well Dodging Bullets has run this season and Sprinter being beaten.

I see he's been entered in the Irish Hennessy.

I was just thinking there in relation to Champagne Fever and where he might run and I wonder could he run in the Ascot Chase in between now and the Festival? I think I read a post from someone on here saying they heard Mullins wanted to run him again.

In the RP QMCC preview, there was a quote from Mullins saying they may run him again. It's a tough decision imo. Not much time to fit a run in, but the Queen Mother is probably the last race you want to be going into on the back of a fall. No time for hesitancy.

Tied Cottage Chase I'd say. Run him back over 2 miles before the Champ Chase

I think the national is the only race that hasn't been mentioned with regards this horse

Well he's in limbo, doesn't stay well enough to win over 3m+ isn't quick enough for 2 miles at very top. I'd go for Ryanair, give it a whack, make all see how he goes. But think Dodging Bullets exploits will send them to Champ Chase.

Agree with last post.

I agree as well, although I think it's silly to use Dodging Bullets as a reason to go for the QM. That one has surely improved a lot this season, whereas I'm not sure Champagne Fever has.

That's for sure,hes improved a lot imo.

Cfever would certainly be interesting over 2m,being prominent suits the horse,and if he were mine that's what I would do.

Hurdles - Aintree Hurdle perfect for him.

Still no closer to knowing. At least he foes to the festival after a win. For my earlier reasons I'd still go for the CC rather than the Ryanair.

I know this topic has been exhausted but looking at Ryanair field now CF could win it really impressively on better ground going at a pace well within it's comfort zone. Cannot for the life of me seeing him getting Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre in trouble at any stage, simply hasn't the pace.

That's assuming SDG and SS are at their best which is by no means a given. Personally I can't be having Sprinter Sacre.

I'd favour the Ryanair over the CC for Champagne Fever though .... another thing worth considering is how competitive it will be up front in the Champion Chase. Loads of front runners.

Although the Ryanair field has got stronger recently with a few additions.

Actually agree re Sprinter Sacre,no matter how much he needed the race the old Sprinter Sacre wouldn't have folded like he did at ascot. Was just trying to make the point that in my opinion CF hasn't the pace to win a CC.

It's a non vintage CC this year and he might not need blistering pace though he had enough pace to win over 2 miles twice previously at the festival so he is certainly not slow. The only issue is that he was initially campaigned as though he was going to be a GC horse and it looks like the CC has only been on the radar since he won last time out. Preparation may not have been ideal. Think he is going CC in any case, Ricci has said as much.

Having seent he race unfold today I have to feel CF would have absoultey hosed up.

who was the coont who bit fever ffs

probably UDS jealous he was going to take the title he wanted

Would he have won? Who knows. Today's outcome probably confirmed the view it was a weak race - a suggestion I argued against before the race.

I think had Champagne Fever been running in the Ryanair or the Gold Cup, he'd have been over on a different boat and he'd still be a contender for a race! It is disappointing though that this Cheltenham specialist misses the Festival and to be honest, I think he has been poorly campaigned this season. Quite possible he won't fulfil the potential he once looked to have.

I think anyone who backed Champagne Fever NRNB and got their money back is bl00dy lucky.

Stuffed on his two spring runs now.

Still absolutely no form over fences.

Maybe being a bit harsh there. I'll change that to limited form, as his Arkle run was pretty good.

The KG run took everything out of him, should've left him home but they thought as long as they'll run Faugheen on Boxing day they'll bring something to run in the KG as well, bad call in hindsight. Hopefully he'll recover next season.