Cheltenham Festival
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That was surely not More of That's true form lto and he is having a wind op as a result. He is clearly very talented but his odds make him no antepost bet at all as he might drift between now and then as others lay down a marker. For me his entire form and market position prior to his run lto was based upon his single World Hurdle win in which he beat an over the hill Big Bucks, an AFC who is a certified mule & had a season plagued by problems. Zarkandar who was never put into the race and who had been raced into the ground last season. So it comes down to being based upon beating Annie Power and she was keen and we don't know if she fully stayed or not. For odds of 5/2 antepost as he was and 4/1 now, I want a horse who has beaten 90% of the main rivals he'll face in March. In this case it looks like 90% of his rivals will be new ones. Good ones too.
As for Annie Power she is sure to go and mop up the gimmie that is the new Grade 1 mares hurdle and then aim at the Aintree Hurdle a race Mullins has never won. Mullins will want to dominate that Mares race as it is a guaranteed win for him, and why not it's a grade 1.
Beat That looks to be staying hurdling and is reported to have strenghtened over the summer. Very much a player and a very exciting addition to this division. His two wins in the spring in particular at Aintree marked him out as a horse to follow. He's only 5yo and will be 6 when March comes so he's open to plenty of improvement this season.
Briar Hill was very unfortunate to fall so heavily at Cheltenham, especially as he gave weight and beatings to the winner and 3rd. His relaxed racing style is a huge asset for a race such as this as he'll save his energy for that climb up the hill. But he was very keen in the AB this could have been due to the delayed start of the race. Already a Cheltenham winner he remains unbeaten when completing and looks sure to be a force in this division.
The New One, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Fingal Bay, Saphir Du Rheu & Whisper are Champion Bound or going chasing. Monksland needs to come back and show some form before he features amongst this crop. While Cole Harden has plenty to prove.
But it is Zarkandar who is of big interest, he got a poor ride in the World Hurdle and was put into the race far too late, he was ridden too much to get the trip. While he then went too hard in front at Aintree where he was taken on for the lead by AFC, he made mistakes and got tired. It was the end of a long season. But at Aeutuil this season he got a perfect stalking ride where he could use some of his speed. Nicholls said he'll have 1 more run at Ascot then be sent to the World hurdle fresh, which I think could be key to him. He was almost raced into the ground last season with 1 run ever 22 days on average over different trips and never got to show his true ability I feel. He stays 3 miles and just needs the right ride and to go there fresh to show his true ability. 16/1 each way it is
As for Annie Power she is sure to go and mop up the gimmie that is the new Grade 1 mares hurdle and then aim at the Aintree Hurdle a race Mullins has never won. Mullins will want to dominate that Mares race as it is a guaranteed win for him, and why not it's a grade 1.
Beat That looks to be staying hurdling and is reported to have strenghtened over the summer. Very much a player and a very exciting addition to this division. His two wins in the spring in particular at Aintree marked him out as a horse to follow. He's only 5yo and will be 6 when March comes so he's open to plenty of improvement this season.
Briar Hill was very unfortunate to fall so heavily at Cheltenham, especially as he gave weight and beatings to the winner and 3rd. His relaxed racing style is a huge asset for a race such as this as he'll save his energy for that climb up the hill. But he was very keen in the AB this could have been due to the delayed start of the race. Already a Cheltenham winner he remains unbeaten when completing and looks sure to be a force in this division.
The New One, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Fingal Bay, Saphir Du Rheu & Whisper are Champion Bound or going chasing. Monksland needs to come back and show some form before he features amongst this crop. While Cole Harden has plenty to prove.
But it is Zarkandar who is of big interest, he got a poor ride in the World Hurdle and was put into the race far too late, he was ridden too much to get the trip. While he then went too hard in front at Aintree where he was taken on for the lead by AFC, he made mistakes and got tired. It was the end of a long season. But at Aeutuil this season he got a perfect stalking ride where he could use some of his speed. Nicholls said he'll have 1 more run at Ascot then be sent to the World hurdle fresh, which I think could be key to him. He was almost raced into the ground last season with 1 run ever 22 days on average over different trips and never got to show his true ability I feel. He stays 3 miles and just needs the right ride and to go there fresh to show his true ability. 16/1 each way it is
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Agree that he was raced too much last year. To think he won the Triumph on only his second ever hurdle start, and he has had 18 races in a relatively short time since.
My worry is the toll those have taken on him. You get some old warriors like Celestial Halo who went so close after a lot of racing, but I don't know if Zark is in that mould. Beat That and Briar Hill are the two for me, and I wouldn't rule out Cole Harden yet. Young and improving horse, who comfortably beat Medinas off levels earlier in the year. Not a flashy horse, and 33/1 ew is a very fair price imo. |
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I just feel Zark was given no chance to show his form last season over a staying trip. Why was he run in the Kingwell hurdle?? Then held up too far back and never had a chance to get into the race at Cheltenham. He reminds me a bit of Solwhit, classy Grade 1 winner over 2m and 2m4f who made the step up to 3 miles.
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I completely agree re his campaign last year; I backed him in the World Hurdle last year, thinking he was being campaigned at too short a trip all year, and he'd improve for the extra distance.
It's a fair comparison with Solwhit, but I personally think Solwhit had a bit more class about him than Zark. Even at the end of three miles, I think Solwhit showed a turn of foot, where I think Zark would stay on at one pace (which may well be good enough). You'd have to say he definitely gets the trip after his latest French run (didn't see the race unfortunately), but I think I'd rather just side with a younger up and coming one, who haven't had quite as many gruelling races. Good luck though. |
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Ah it's hard to compare the two, Solwhit won like 8 or 9 grade 1's and came 2nd to Hurricane Fly in 5 too. Not to mention was injured for almost 2 years. So he could have made his ability shown in 3 world hurdles on top of the one he won.
But Zark is talented and I think he's very much over priced. Especially as I can see him winning well at Ascot as it won't be deep ground as it hasn't rained much recently. Reve De Sivola is getting a bit old now and I don't see much else of Zarkandar class. e/w when there is what 4 or 5 players at present in the World Hurdle picture. Seems fair. I like Beat That & Briar Hill too though. Just opposing More of That. |
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If More Of That won a poor renewal and it is quite possible then the problem for Zarkandar is that he has to make nearly 10 lengths up and then account for whatever distance the new champ can put on More Of That's performance in March. His preperation may have been wrong but I'm struggling with the idea that a stayer running four times prior to Cheltenham over an extended 2 miles is going to have had the edge taken off him to that extent. I'm also struggling to imagine that the horse who was absolutely beasted by Annie Power over three furlongs shorter would suddenly spring forth and beat all comers over three miles. The only horse I can ever remember doing something similar was Anzum but he used to run on like a train over the shorter distance and didn't have the speed to win over two miles. I'm also struggling to imagine that he has any form over 3 miles to be willing to edge out the other doubts.
To argue on behalf of Zarkandar is a counsel of despair for me. It hopes for More Of That not achieving what he looked capable of. It hopes for Annie to go down the mares route and it hopes for nothing to emerge which dazzles us with brilliance. For me he has a good chance of a place but at this stage the race is a no bet for me because of the cloud surrounding More Of That who looked a special one. |
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For me his entire form and market position prior to his run lto was based upon his single World Hurdle win
not for me, it was based upon his whole season last year where he chalked up one impressive display after another, maybe not if you went through the weights and measures with a fine tooth comb but certainly with the visual impression he gave.... as he progressed last year he began to give the impression of a very very good horse run after run which was rounded off by a quite taking performance in the WH itself.....he's the one to beat again and comes from a stable where dire runs and poor stable form throughout the season gives a lot less concern than it does from other stables. |
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With doubts over top 3 in market,had couple of stabs at Jetson and Lt Colonel big price on here.
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Have a feeling Briar Hill will be seen in same hurdle race Boston Bob ran fto in last sesason.
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Zarkander at current double fig prices appeals to me after that, obviously idled really badly there and don't think we will be seeing him with blinkers on again. Sheepskin nose band perhaps but not blinkers though what do i know about training horses lol.
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He's a bit of a dog, but it's not like he didn't stay. He just idled after the last let Reve get back into it and then picked up again. 3m1f toe to toe with course specialist Reve De Sivola.
Sam isn't the best rider of hurdles, but he need to hold onto him until after the last at Cheltenham. |
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I agree RE blinkers. Couldn't see RDS come by him, when he did see him, he picked up again.
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cv i know you've bet him but do you
1 think he likes some cut? 2 is he actually good enough? i think along with yourself thought he was a tad of value at 16 (i didn't bet) and prob still is at 14 but i think he may just be short of the grade i wanted to see him run today but have to say reve wasn't at his best and still beat him |
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He's good enough, he has the talent but he's not an easy horse to get the best out of. I thnk he needs a Paul Carbury ride, patient and bring him to challenge after the last as he'll battle like a demon when he's in a fight. I think Cheek Pieces on for Cheltenham instead of blinkers. He clearly stays and I need to see the replay, but think he was flicking his ears trying to hear where Reve De Sivola was, which to me means he had plenty left in the tank.
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not good enough
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I wonder if they might just leave him now till March? PFN says he goes best fresh which is why he missed Newbury. He should have won yesterday but whether just beating a past his best RDS is a high enough level of form is another matter. Still they all have to get there and 2015 doesn't look like being a fantastic renewal at the moment.
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according to Nicholls stable tour the plan has always been to leave him until March after yesterday's race anyway - I doubt Nicholls saw anything yesterday to make him change his mind.
At a slight tangent, the programme is very lopsided here in UK - off the top of my head, you have the Wetherby race, the Newbury race, the Relkeel and the Long Walk within a seven week period this side of Christmas and then just the Cleeve between Christmas and March (I s'pose you could throw in the race Annie Power won last year at Cheltenham on New Year's Day but that's only 10 days or so away now). If the weather turns wintry, it won't be too long before trainers of potential World Hurdle contenders are complaining about not being able to get a prep run into them. |
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^ yes, I mean Henderson and am thinking of Beat That, Blue Fashion and Whisper
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I'm not on Zarkander at present but I am going to have a bet on him. Yesterday certainly didn't put me off and 14/1 is very fair with doubts at the head of the market.
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I only saw the race the once but to me it looked like Zarkandar was outstayed. Staying is all relative anyway and never as black and white as did stay or didn't stay like some make out. But there is still a concern over 3m in a World Hurdle, he'll meet a better stayer.
Maybe going there fresh will help and another thing I think will help is better ground as despite the connections saying he's best on soft ground, I think the Cheltenham ground in March suits him best. I wouldn't be put off and I think his current odds are generous enough but I would worry that he'll get outstayed. |
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SoYouThink 21 Dec 14 20:09 Joined: 14 Jun 11 | Topic/replies: 976 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog
I only saw the race the once but to me it looked like Zarkandar was outstayed. I could not disagree with that more. If he was out stayed why was he coming back at him? The blinkers stopped him seeing Reve coming and he was flicking his ears to hear where he was. He idled when he got to the front, it's not like he didn't stay. Especially when you consider the World Hurdle is run over 1 furlong shorter and on better ground I'm not worried about stamina at all. What I'm worried about is the top 3 in the market he has no form with, bar his defeat by MofT. Also he will need the blinkers to come off and needs a stalking ride until after the last He's quirky and that means there are things he can do which can cost him a race. He stays and he's a battler, but he'll clearly idle when he goes past the field so needs a good ride. |
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Also connections have never said he's better on soft. Ruby Walsh has always said he's better on good ground. The soft ground brought out his stamina over shorter trips. But hs career best performance was beating The New One in the Aintree Hurdle on good over 2m4f.
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I just watched the race again and I could not be in any doubt the better stayer came out on top in that race. As I said above, staying is all relative. It would be misleading to say Zarkandar didn't stay but he definitely got outstayed, put it that way. The trainer comments in the Racing Post had Nicholls quoted as saying the soft ground would suit him.
If the World Hurdle was tomorrow and the horses currently in the betting lined up in usual Cheltenham festival conditions, then I would probably back Zarkandar at the odds. I do think the better ground will bring about improvement and I think this tactic of running him fresh is interesting. The furlong less will obviously help too. My concern would be that there'll be better stayers in the race. The defeat by Reve De Sivola an example of this. |
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I just think the race will cut up massively badly. Are we sure all 3 of More of That, Beat That & Briar Hill will turn up with reputations as sound as the market prices them??
Zarkandar whatever happens to him will be delivered late and at worse can you see his chances of placing worse than 22% as current odds give him? We know he's fit and well at least, where is everyone else? |
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Fair point and I can see the argument for Zark. I just get the feeling a bet on Zarkandar feels forced and a default bet rather then one with any real conviction. MoT and Beat That not ideal preps with wind ops and delayed debut whilst Briar Hill has to prove he's over his fall. Nibbled Lieutenant Colonel but not a race I'd be keen to get heavily involved in. Too many questions left unanswered at this stage for my liking.
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I agree with folks who say there will be stronger stayers in the race who'll see it out more thoroughly. Still 3 months to go aswell which is plenty of time for things to change considerably.
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Lieutenant Colonel interests me in this as well. Considering taking the 16/1 nrnb than the 25/1 normal though.
Good progressive profile, and the lack of an appearance from Beat That is a bit of a concern. Nothing changed for me after the Long Walk. Although Reve won, and he is an admirable horse, I would have expected a World Hurdle winner to have stayed in front of him. I take your point about a stalking ride, but then that is almost like reverting back to riding to get the trip, rather than kicking on up the hill and going for home |