***ARKLE 2015***

Absolutely Joist, the Arkle needs him.With Vautour likely imo to go JLT and Josses Hill needing to improve his jumping we certainly need as many as we can right now - race is heading towards a possible one horse race if we aint careful....and he could fall with his style of racing!!

I can't believe Josses Hill is shorter in the betting than Gilgamboa. He tried to hurdle his fences and couldn't arch his back to jump properly. I think the 14's is still a good bet.

Yeah I put on the Gilgamboa thread that its been a while since JP went into the race with a live chance. 2010 and Cee Bee probably.

Recently he's had the likes of Tap Night and Rock Noir, so no real chance of ever winning.

If the likes of Vautour, Valseur Lido, Apache Stronghold and even Saphir de Reu run in the JLT, the Arkle looks an easier option anyway.

Although I am pocket talking, and wouldn't be too surprised if he lined up in the JLT.

Josses Hill is entered on Friday and Saturday in novice chases. They will be hoping for a much improved performance from the horse to put himself back into the Arkle picture. He is very highly thought of by connections and had pleased them with his schooling. However he looked very awkward at Ascot and was soundly beaten by Ptit Zig. Henderson surprisingly was very encouraged by the run. England haven't got any novices yet that have looked liked being Arkle players, as Ptit Zig is heading to the JLT, so let's hope Josses can win well this week.

The Irish Arkle at the end of the month looks incredibly strong.
PP0wer have priced up the race.
Un De Sceaux heads the betting at 11/10. He fell on debut but before that had jumped really well. Again he jumped well when getting off the mark the last time and looks very exciting. A lot has been made of his jumping and I've read that that is a reason not to back him for March. I could not disagree more. I wouldnt back a horse if I didn't think it was good enough, but wouldn't be put off backing a horse that can win but "might" fall.  Any horse can fall.  My biggest concern for him at Cheltenham is that he looks such a speed horse, whether he will get up the hill. Anyway his run in the Irish Arkle is the first time we get to see him tested and I'm looking forward to seeing how good he is. Let's hope he runs.

Vautour is also entered here. 6/4. I can excuse his last run as he made a hell of a blunder at xmas and in that heavy ground it would be very hard to get back into a rhythm. He is still a very high class prospect but having always thought he would run in The Arkle in March I'm now starting to doubt it. The pricing by the books and the Walsh factor of wanting to win every race looks as though he could go JLT.

Gilgamboa 5/2. Really pleased with him over Christmas and the ante post bet is still alive. It was over 2 1/2 miles that day but that does not bother me. Lots of novices, either hurdling or chasing, run over different trips. It's a must sometimes to gain experience. Bolger had stated he really didn't want to throw him into a Grade 1 on just his second start so this was the logical race. He travelled and jumped beautifully and beat a half decent horse whilst giving her lots of weight.

Clarcam 7/2. A stunning victory at Christmas. Won as he liked by 17L. Again he will be receiving 10lbs in the Irish Arkle and I'm surprised he isn't shorter in the betting. He could not have impressed any more the last time. He won't get the weight allowance come March so will need to win well here to be a big player come Cheltenham. Judging by what we saw at Christmas I think he can certainly mix it up at levels.
He will receive 7lbs later in this year if he comes back for the Punchestown festival. A bizarre system!!!!!


Ante post bets aside, I'm hoping Josses Hill turns out to be as good as they think he is and we have 4 or 5 good horses turn up in March for this exciting race.

I really hope those four make the Irish Arkle. Will potentially be better than the cheltenham version....

Definitely CCM - cracking race in prospect.

Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Gilgamboa, Clarcam and Apache Stronghold all together - I hope they all stand their ground.  I wouldn't be surprised if that race produced the Arkle and JLT winner, but not necessarily the obvious two.

be very surprised if mullins pitches vautour in that company so soon after the last run

what is almost certain is un de sceaux will probably dodge the race in favour of another egg and spoon race

make it sound like the horse makes the entries

like the horse is bothered whose 20 lengths behind him

can't remember the horse in a good race can you then buddeliea???

Don't want Apache Stronghold in the Irish Arkle as he should be heading for the RSA!

Depends what you call a good race,but anyway that's hardly his fault.
Fact is he will be way out in front whatever race hes in.
Only time he will see them is of they manage to catch him,or pass him on the deck!!

Apache in JlT Tory, imo.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't Wicketd

Yep, defintiely JLT sorry.

That line, that the race could produce the Arkle and JLT winner, I was thinking along the lines of Un De Sceaux, Vautour and Gilgamboa could all win the Arkle, and Vautour, Gilgamboa and Apache Stronghold could all win the JLT.

Sorry Clarcam fans!

Yeah, I expect a couple to drop out, but imo the Irish novice chasers look a cut above in the Arkle and JLT this year imo, with the exception of Ptit Zig in the JLT.

why CCM?

I think Clarcam is being underrated hugely. He has been the best novice chaser this season on the book and by the visual impression he has created in my book, and it's an insult that he's the longest-priced of the four mentioned above.

He has of course been getting the allowances, which he won't to any great degree at Cheltenham, but he is the likeliest winner of the Irish Arkle I think. I actually really fancy him for Cheltenham too - think he jumps and travels better than anything we've seen so far (Gilgamboa has been faultless but in weaker company).

Vautour smashed him Tom with 12lb more on his back!!
Clarcam ran well lto but Vautour made a horrendous error.
Personally think Mullins know one of his will beat Clarcam in the Arkle.

dont think clarcam was fit to, or ridden to win on first chase start though

well ok, Perhaps I will reserve judgement till they meet again, sounds fair I guess.

Clarcam must have a hell of a chance receiving 10lb I think. I thought he would be favourite for this.

It's crazy how is getting all this weight yet runs off levels at Cheltenham.

Yep, does look like JLT for AS but, and this is contentious, I think DP out sprinted him in the Topaz and the sectionals actually back that theory up. Therefore, and based on overall profile, I think his next race should be 3m then onto the RSA. I haven't backed him for anything by the way

Can't see why they are running Apache over the two miles to be honest.

Despite claiming not to have backed him, Budd is balls deep on Un De Sceaux imo

Because he has only had one bad run, with clear excuses. I can't see them lowering their radar because of that. He is the owners top novice chaser, and he will want to contend the top races.

This will also be invaluable for them with regards to Cheltenham and the best target for their horses.

Have to say UDS is one of the most exciting elements of the Festival. I think he's possibly the worst value I've seen at this year's meeting so far though, and I say that with every respect for his raw ability. I will not be backing him but will have my heart in my mouth watching him tearing away at those Cheltenham fences.

Was that in response to me Catch?

I can honestly say I have not a penny on UDS joist, why on earth would I lie? I was quiet open about backing him for the Churdle last year.

If you read my posts on the horse, its all about the excitement of a frontrunner in a top 2m race at my favourite sporting event.
I do stick up for him a lot on various threads, cos I feel hes wrongly criticised just cos his connections have not let him do the talking on the track in proper races thus far.
Now it looks like he will get the chance, I feel people should stop having a pop at the horse and wait till hes had the chance to show exactly how good he is Should be soon.

Ive backed Josses Hill and Gilgamboa for the Arkle. I would like UDS on my side so I can cheer him on and win money,but when he was bigger odds I really had my doubts about what they would do with him,and remembering him skipping the festival last year. Now it looks pretty clear he will be running,ive missed the prices.
I shall find a way of backing him though,not sure to what degree or how but I will have a profit it he wins.

I was only speaking tongue-in-cheek Budd, just in regard to how quick you are to defend him whenever he's criticised!

You say "wrongly criticised"...but surely, "fairly criticised" is more accurate? After all, it's undeniable that he hasn't really beaten a Grade 1 horse and so when faced with 5/2, people are fair to use that as a reason not to find him an attractive proposition, or indeed to extrapolate further and present a case that with his current form, he's no Arkle winner in waiting.

It's always frustrating to miss the price on one that you ultimately do want to back - for the last two weeks, a good friend of mine has been doubling every single bet he has with Peace And Co for the Triumph, in order to boost Peace And Co's price

Sorry brandy, that was to Wicketd

Thing is Joist he is criticised for winning races by a distance,cos he's not faced a top horse yet.REason I think it unfair is it ain't his fault,so have a go at the trainer is what I say. YEs his price is pretty short,again though that ain't his fault. I've not backed him cos I don't like the price so I agree,so haven a go at the bookies then. UDS has done absolutely nowt wrong in his career thus far,apart from falling in hid first chase,he's a very exciting horse and wil now be given the chance to prove how good he is and at what level he is at. So criticise  away when hes proved a failure,but until then wait till the horse is actually given the chance to show what he can do.

I know what you mean Budd, I was quite vocal in my support of Peddlers Cross on here when he was a novice chaser when he'd won his couple of egg and spoon races round Bangor.  He was ultimately found out over fences (still one of my favourite horses though), but I couldn't get my head round why people were critisizing the horse, for jumping and winning well.

Should be having a go at connections because the horse can only beat what is put in front of him.

As an Apache JLT backer, it doesn't bother me him running in this.  I don't think he'll win, because he'll get done for speed by one of them, but I think this will be a nice prep before stepping back up in distance for the festival.  Benefficient won this and then the Jewson in his next race (although I admit he was a 2m - 2.5m horse, where Apache is 2.5m - 3m).

I think if uds is allowed to take his chance in the arkle it will be one of the bookies major push outs morning of the race for a 15-30 minute period. In fact he screams the perfect type of fav they love to offer huge inflated odds on morning of the first day or the greatest show on turf!

although I have not backed uds it will be fascinating to see him in the arkle at the festival , he is going to blaze off in front and it will be heart in mouth time for backers at every fence , the problem is how much rope will he be allowed ? could a  a spoiler i.e golden freeze carvills hill scenario  be  employed to try to race with him or hassle him up front ?

Have you not been impressed with his jumping Foyle.
I feel I'm on my own when I say I think he looks very natural at fencing. Jumps well and looks athletic.

Great work the other night by the way. You look in good form this year.

ive been warming to UDS for a while now, he looks the real deal, just needs to back it up now hope he runs, hope they all run

yes very exciting horse with a bit of mystery around him I would prefer it if uds went to the arkle untested ! i.e another soft race over fences against inferior rivals ,then the unknown could be anything factor will still be there rather than a stern test before against classy rivals in which the bubble may or may not be burst !

^ I agree - would be great fun for Cheltenham if there were at least a few of these still untested come the big day!

Front runners don't win Arkles though That's the problem for me

I't's easy to get over excited by UDS because of how visually impressive he is, but the truth is that he is a touch out of control but because he's far superior to his rivals it hasn't cost him...an interesting thing to consider is that if other strongly fancied runners for the Arkle went into a prep race against similarly inferior horses with connections saying...right, we're going to set off and go clear of the field in this....the chances are they'd win in exactly the same way.

Front runners don't win Arkles though

completely and utterly irrelevant

In what way is that an irrelevant stat please enlighten me

what relevance does that stat have to do with this year's arkle please?

if a horse is good enough to win the race from the front then he'll win the race from the front

do you think champagne fever was nabbed on the line last year because of arkle winners don't do it from the front?

has absolutely no impact on his chances

I agree with your point in principle, Wicketd.

Many people successfully use trends to whittle down potential winners of these big races, but unless you understand why the trend exists, you can pass over horses that shouldn't be passed over.

As you allude to, Champagne Fever didn't lose because he made the running, so the fact that UDS will be out in front does not mean he will get done as well. Azertyuiop made all from my memory, but then again, he was the best horse. Maybe it's just that you only have one runner in any race that can possibly make all (as one goes off in front when the tapes rise) and therefore it's not surprising that not many front-runners win the Arkle as there are many more non-front-runners in the race each year.

Of course it is more complicated than that, and because Cheltenham is testing and the quality of competition is so high, it is probably harder to make all here than it is elsewhere. That said, I wouldn't be at all put off by UDS being a front-runner if I fancied him. For what it's worth, there have been stacks of winners that raced very prominently too (Champleve, Flagship Uberalles, Tidal Bay, Forpadydeplasterer, Sizing Europe, Sprinter Sacre), and there haven't, from recollection, been many out-and-out front-runners to have run in the race - can anyone recall many horses blasting out into clear leads and trying to hang on?

good post.

the last few years the only front-runners i can remember expected to make an impact were overturn and finians rainbow.

the ground went against overturn and he made bad mistakes, and finians rainbow probably didnt want to front run as his best form was beating sizing and the melling at aintree.

sprinter sacre took it up from cue card at the 4th last and cue card ran well from the front. sizing was prominent, tidal bay was prominent.

UDS if good enough can win from the front.

Yep,cant wait to see it.
Be the sight of the festival when he goes 20 lengths clear.

I was just thinking, some value available in this race if - like myself - you believe Vautour will run in JLT. Josses Hill doesn't jump well enough to win, Un De Sceaux even if you are a big supporter like myself you have to admit could make a mistake or not like good ground and the track, whatever.

So that leaves? I'm not buying Clarcam, he had huge weight claim lto and Vautour ran no race. Gilgamboa surely needs 2m4f on good ground. Ptit Zig goes for JLT.

So Vibrato Valtat or Sgt Reckless? I like the latter, yes he's a shade old but still he clearly is a better jumper than Josses Hill and was close up in 4th in Supreme. 25/1 seems some big value imo

Purely from a pocket talking point of view, if Vautour does go down the JLT, I really want Gilgamboa in the Arkle.

On paper Vautour, Valseur Lido and Ptit Zig is one hell of a trio and imo would probably be the strongest novice chase at the festival since Sprinter's Arkle, with Cue Card, Al Ferof and Menorah.

If those three lined up in the JLT, the Arkle looks the much easier option.

He has looked good over 2.5 this year though, so I could understand why they'd go down the JLT route.

Has Willie Mullins given how any indication which of Vautour or Un De Sceaux will run in the Irish Arkle? It's only 2 weeks away now so I presume he has an idea what he wants to do? There were a few posts on here saying he'd run them both however I can't see that being the case myself.

I still think  Vautour should be running in the Arkle. I like Un De Sceaux purely because of his gung-ho style of racing ... I'm also drawn these horses that polarize opinion. He's exciting and interesting and we wouldn't know that much about him until the race is over. However there are a few too many if's with him right now which is off putting. Even things like the ground where Mullins has in the past been very open saying he's good on soft. If Vautour hadn't run so poorly at Leopardstown - he still came second albeit well beaten - there'd be so few questions with him. He looks a good jumper and he's been to the Festival already and won. It seems a waste to run him in the JLT. The bad run at Leopardstown though has opened up the way for some doubts.

The Arkle front running stat gets brought up every year ..... one I haven't read on this forum yet and I'm amazed it hasn't been brought up in the context of this race given the market leaders ..... but Ruby Walsh hasn't won a Chase at the Festival since 2009

Who cares about that stat, what is it inferring? That Ruby Walsh isn't a good jockey over Fences at Cheltenham? That if he rode Sprinter Sacre last season he'd have got him beat?

I flipped a coin and it came up heads 7 times in a row!!! Does that mean heads is pretty much the only result I'll get when flipping that coin next time, or do I know that it's going to be 50:50 chance each time and it was just the 1/100 event happening this time?

Statistical anomalies will always exist, people focus on them and quote them without ever trying to explain the underlying factor we should be inferring.

Un De Sceaux will not run in the Irish Arkle btw

Surprised there has been little talk of vibrato valtat on here.

The horse has won 2 recognised trails for the race in the Henry VIII chase at Sandown won by captain Conan, al ferof, somersby and direct route and the wayward lad chase at kempton won by sprinter sacre and simonsig. He still seems to get no credit though as he is/was a bit quirky.

If UDS runs and sets a fast pace the race will be run to suit. I'm not saying he is going to peg back UDS but on the whole his jumping has been good, he doesn't lack for speed so in my opinion he is a good each way bet at 20/1. The race will cut up as only one of the Mullins horses will run, he isn't going to run both, so you can probably take Vautour or UDS out.

Clarcam and gilgamboa will probably both run, but they could be ruled out with a bad run in the Irish arkle.

Josses hill didn't jump well enough for me, he only just managed to beat solar impulse, who isn't going to be better than a handicapper in my opinion. So half the odds with jumping question marks looks a bit silly to me.

The other horse I would give a mention to is three kingdoms, who ran well against vibrato valtat. He could get outpaced though.

Anyway everyone has their opinions, so good luck no matter who you back.

What will he run un de sceaux in then Cv ?

I'm not saying it's inferring anything. It was quite a popular one last year leading up to the Festival amongst forumites and I'm surprised we haven't heard it quoted that much this season.

Is it your belief that Un De Sceaux won't run in the Irish Arkle or has Mullins stated this?

Can't be a great prep for Sgt Reckless - one run over fences, one over hurdles and 1m 4f on the all weather at lingfield

Yeh,backed him ages ago,but flat race at this stage?? and xmas hurdle as his previous race,all rather strange.
Well if hes an Arkle horse it is anyway.

Un De Sceaux will go for another weakish race before the Arkle. Mullins knows it matters little to him as he front runs anyway it's just jumping experience he needs. I doubt he'll go for the Flyingbolt though as that's too close to Cheltenham and he puts a lot into his races.

I'd love UDS to travel to England for a race next but it's unlikely

Sorry my opinion that UDS won't go for Irish Arkle btw. Reasons are Vautour has been already nominated for the race and Mullins won't run both.

So why would he step Vautour up half a mile for cheltenham cv

I haven't seen anything saying that Vautour would run in the Irish Arkle? Has Mullins said this?

They have said it for a while mate

Not that I've seen, have you a link?

cufcno1
So why would he step Vautour up half a mile for cheltenham cv

Un De Sceaux can only go for one race, the Arkle. Vautour can go for either the Arkle or the JLT. Ruby will want to ride both, both will likely be fav's for both races (if Vautour bounces back to win Irish Arkle and UDS wins nto).

Also there is the feeling that they owe O'Connell for agreeing to skip the Champion hurdle last season to allow Hurricane Fly the best chance possible to win a 3rd Champion hurdle.

Cv surely they would want to give it a spin over the trip then before it,do you not think 2 and a half on the new course takes some getting,imagine if the ground is soft,more like a 3 mile chase,they would look stupid,has rich ricci not said all along the arkle is Vautour's target,if the ground has good in it on the Tuesday would un de sceaux even run?

Yep,all makes sense CV,although I still hope Vautour and UDS run in Arkle.

Ground will be at best good/soft so UDS should definitely run,he's form on good/soft in his bumper,plus I expect him to be fine on better ground,anyway.......why not. Horses tend to run quicker on better ground,especially speed horses.Soft ground may well help his chances of winning the race as it will slow down others that don't act so well,but I still expect him to line up should it be normal Tuesday going. As for Vautour,they already know he will stay further ok.

It wouldn't matter too much about Vautour not having a chase of 2m4f before the Festival if the JLT is the aim imo.

Cooldine had never had a 3m chase, and then won the RSA; Solwhit had never had a 3m hurdle and then won the World Hurdle, Peddlers had been kept to 2m1f and less and then won the Neptune.

Sometimes the first try at a new distance brings about improvement, so might as well do it at the Festival.

Still think he should go the Arkle though!

cufcno - Mullins has a record of running his horses over shorter trips in Ireland to help teach them to jump at the pace they'll go at Cheltenham. 2m race on soft ground in Ireland is about 2m4f pace for g2s at Cheltenham.

Ok then,if Vautour won the jlt and beat valsuer lido do you think oleary would be pleased,think he would rather keep him onside rather than O'Connell,even though I can't have that argument about them owing him one !

I'm not saying Vautour should go for JLT btw, I don't bother opining on things I've no control over. I focus on where horses will run. With Vautour and Shaneshill I'd only go with to win any race (which I've backed both for). Because even if Vautour was all set for the JLT, what if UDS missed Cheltenham, Mullins would surely switch Vautour to the Arkle as he has no runner in that case. These kind of things, permutations need to be taken into account.

As I have said in past cv you know more than me about the stable,I just think it's ridiculous,how stupid will mullins look if Vautour fades up the hill !

Btw I've backed shaneshill for the supreme as I felt it was outstayed in the bumper last year,or was it outpaced lol

Vautour looked fine to me when beating the likes of Apache stronghold and Lieut colonel over 2and a half m last year. They know he will stay.

I think owners are more in demand of Mullins than he is of them tbh. Rich Ricci is retired and has buckets of cash, Mullins just needs to keep finding the right horses and he'll have owners to buy them. He doesn't have to worry. O'Leary, Wylies, Ricci's all want horses with him, even JP is getting some quality ones with him too.

He's always said when it comes to Cheltenham he will place his team in the races which give him the best chance of having winners. So he keeps his best horses apart and he avoids the best opposition if he has a choice. Boston Bob went for the AB to specifically avoid Simonsig. He said that.

Add to that Ruby will want a good ride in each race. All this will result in UDS and Vautour never race eachother.

Think it fair to say the owners missed out last year with UDS skipping Cheltenham,so entirely feasible that Mullins owes them imo.

buddeliea
Vautour looked fine to me when beating the likes of Apache stronghold and Lieut colonel over 2and a half m last year. They know he will stay.

He's by Robin Des Champs, they know he'll stay and they know he'll battle like a demon. I love that train in the Robin Des Champs, the all battle.

Also you know for sure that Mullins has learn't his lesson with Champagne Fever, teaching him all his life to make all over 2 miles and expect him to settle then when upped to 3??? No Vautour will go 2m4f then up to 3 next season. The right way to go.

I'm beginning to think I've done ma dough !

It could have been the hard Supreme he had, but that 2m4f at Punchestown wasn't half as impressive as his previous performances though.  Although on paper now, that looks a much stronger race than it did at the time - we could look back at that four runner race in a few years time, and it could produce a decent number of G1 wins.

Long way to go yet mate,and lots can happen!!

Don't worry about it cufcno, I've done my dough lots of times. Alezz Colobiers was a big big loss of antepost money when he died in Nov. That was Rich Ricci's ticket to the Champion hurdle he hoped.

Allez Colombieres, some mistype below.

Yeah best way to look at bets is, it's gone until it's not gone if that makes sense. I've been a big Road to Riches fan for ages and backed him for the Ryanair after he won the Galway Plate. That's the way it goes, horse proved to be even better than I believed and he doesn't even hold a Ryanair entry now.

I know,was on it myself !

My speculative Arkle bet, Top Gamble runs tomorrow.  If it wins tomorrow and shows improvement yet again, it wont have too much to find with the market leaders.   GL

ttt

Looks like UDS will be shorter than Sprinter Sacre made his
winning Arkle appearance
Dosent jump as well as SS and if ground is not soft enuf at Chelters
I suspect there maybe alternatives

Looks 'bar a fall' for UDS, or maybe someone could run a spoiler to try to upset his rhythm (like Golden Freeze and Carvills Hill).

I'msolukcy, I think that was because Sprinter's Arkle had quality right the way through it.  At the time Cue Card was a Champion Bumper winner and Supreme fourth, Al Ferof was a Bumper second and Supreme winner, Menorah was a Supreme and an Internation winner, and even Blackstairmountain had won a G1 novice hurdle.

Still think evens is a cracking price for UDS. I backed him yesterday in the double Irish/English Arkle at 4/1 but tempted to load more on him. Nothing will get near him, just like today.

Field will cut up and his nearest rivals will prob be Clarcam and Gilgamboa again, with possibly Josses Hill capable of a place

Think Gilgamboa will go JLT now

I wonder what the likely Arkle lineup will be?

Un De Sceaux
Josses Hill
Vibrato Valtat
Sgt Reckless?
Clarcam?
Three Kingdoms?
Solar Impulse?

Struggling to see any others.

Can't see many more than that Chief.
He could go off very very short.

UDS very impressive today.  Maybe too impressive?  Heads for Champion Chase.

Forty

I backed him for that on here ages ago,but hes not got an entry.

Guess they could supplement him,but pretty unlikely.

Think about it:

Vautour Arkle
Valseur Lido JLT
Don Poli RSA
UDS Champion Chase
C Fever Ryannair

All going for a race that fits with their profile imo.

Whilst I wouldn't normally be an advocate of a novice in the champion chase the impression he left me with today leads me to believe that the race (CC) is there for the taking.

It would also imo keep all the owners happy assuming UDS wins the CC.

Just a thought no inside info.

Forty

He won't be going for the Champion Chase, he's not entered and Champagne Fever is most likely headed there.

Can they not supplement him?

Forty

They won't

You are probably right.

It was just a thought.

Forty