Cheltenham Festival
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Only just saw Sunday's race for the first time but aside from the impressive display from the winner I too was very taken by Apache Stronghold's performance, he was beaten by a quicker horse who had aspirations of winning last year's supreme so there's no shame there.
With 3 to go Apache looked completely cooked but he stayed on quite well and a step up to 3 miles will suit him down to the ground, he's going to turn out to bee a very strong stayer IMO, the right handed track wasn't to his liking as he was out to his left a lot of the time. I'd be hopeful he'd reverse the placings over an extra 1/2 mile.
With 3 to go Apache looked completely cooked but he stayed on quite well and a step up to 3 miles will suit him down to the ground, he's going to turn out to bee a very strong stayer IMO, the right handed track wasn't to his liking as he was out to his left a lot of the time. I'd be hopeful he'd reverse the placings over an extra 1/2 mile.
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Make no mistake Valseur Lido put up a brilliant performance in winning the Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday and I expect the form to work out really well.
While Willie Mullins is already planning an RSA Chase tilt at Cheltenham in March - and what a horse he could be if staying further - Noel Meade feels strongly that two and a half miles will be runner-up Apache Stronghold's ideal distance and he remains 20/1 in places for the JLT at the Festival |
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From the Sporting Life ****^^^
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That is good to hear from a personal perspective brandy as I've backed him for the JLT but sort of agree with Duffy stayed on well and thought a step up in trip would suit........ Think the first 2 are good animals but not sure if connections have come out with an excuse for anything amiss with the Tullow tank???
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Agree Duffy. He definitely was one to take from the race, along with the winner obviously.
I too have backed him for the JLT. I think Real Steel jumping right at every fence helped him, as he took him that way as well. Looked like he could go places over hurdles, but I think he could have a big future over fences. I suspect we'll look back at the Drinmore in a few months and see it as a good marker. |
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Sorry, Real Steel's jumping wide didn't help him!
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Thought his jumping was not the most natural and got progressively worse as the race went on. That said he was still traveling well turning for home so he must have an engine. If he could sort out his jumping he will be a player in the top races this season. He jumped left a few times on his debut too.
Could be worth a try at stepping up in trip as he looks a big horse who would always be vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot. |
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I don't think he necessarily wants a gruelling three miles simply because he stuck on well over 2m4f. The horse has always clearly had a fair engine and if there's a race for him at Cheltenham, then it's the JLT imo.
I also think he'd benefit from being tucked away amongst runners a bit more; he was right up in the van on Sunday which I don't think is this horse's style. Get him cruising in behind a good gallop in the JLT and watch him come there on the bit two out  At least that's what I hope  |
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I'm finding apache hard to place tbh...i think he is certainly good but not sure he wants 3 miles yet although i think he will get it in time 2m4f maybe and he also just maybe a tad below top class...his next run will tell us more in regards targets, also would like to see him on some better ground...whatever happens he is a good horse, if he were mine i would give christmas a miss and bring him back with a prep run before cheltenham, he is certainly a nice type how good i'm just not sure
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^ I very much agree with this.
I was there on Sunday to back him, and thought that while he ran well, and was out to his left at a few, that it was just mildly disappointing in the sense that the winner beat him pointless. For all that it was a very strong race, I'm not sure he's a Grade One winner waiting to happen at the moment. Three miles would very probably help, but I wouldn't be in a rush to oppose the winner with him again under any conditions. |
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I really liked Apache for the Neptune till his injury.
He has a real touch of class imo, and will look forward to his next chase,hopefully left handed. Hes one I will back if he is aimed at the festival and feel the JLT is his ideal race,really not at all sure about 3m at this stage of his career. |
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Apache looks a good horse but I didn't like the way he jumped his hurdles and I'm really not sold on his fencing so far. Know Reel Steel Prob didn't help, but he just doesn't seem a natural at it
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If Vautour goes the Arkle and Valseur Lido is stepped up to 3m, the JLT is wide open, and I'd put Apache third in the pecking order behind those.
While I agree with Tom in that I see no reason why he'd turn the form round, he might not have to if VL is stepped up. Outside of the top Mullins two, you have the likes of Gods Own, Gilgamboa, Vaniteux, Briar Hill, Irish Saint and Sgt Reckless in the betting where pretty much all of them are not likely to turn up. 20/1 is a knocking ew bet! |
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^ If he lines up it probably is, but there is every chance VL does run in this, or that Apache steps up to the 3m RSA.
I think 20/1 is about right at present. I wouldn't be in a rush to get involved either, as I think this looks a very strong year for novice chasers in the UK and in Ireland. You could easily run a blinder at Cheltenham and not hit the frame in the Ankle, JLT or RSA in my opinion. Do love Apache and hope he does step up to Grade One level but I'm firmly on the fence for now. |
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Bl00dy right there Tom,never known such a season for novice chasers,gonna be real hard to get winners antepost imo.
Re Apache, I really feel he was top notch as a nov hurdler,and I do expect him to prove top level as a nov chaser at 2 and a half m.And maybe Gold Cup class in time? |
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Don't think he'll come over. Big aim will be the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse I imagine
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agree^^^
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We'll see tomorrow whether the step up to 3m will suit Apache.
I still think 2.5 is his ideal distance at this stage, although I'd never rule out 3m in the future. It'll be interesting to see The Tullow Tank over 3m as well. |
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yep..outstayed.
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outstayed but a thorough, thorough stayer. i think apache is better over 2m5 than he showed against VL
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He was outstayed but Don Poli is a very classy horse for whom Gigginstown have lofty ambitions.
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He wasn't outstayed but rather beaten by a better horse.
Nothing to do with the trip there. |
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He looks an RSA horse more than a Jewson horse to me. The stronger stayer won today yes but I wouldn't bet against the form being turned around at the Festival.
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surely Poli wont go for the 4 miler.
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WPM now talking about dropping him in trip! Don't many Grade 1 winners in the NH Chase, especially the winner of this Topaz which Mullins describes as 'the best ever run here'.
I think he'll run in the RSA with Valseur Lido in the JLT. |
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^^^ me to (i'm on willie watch) so to speak.
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Just make sure nobody catches you H!....
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Don Poli looked to me like a horse that stays and stays....4 miler would be perfect for him imo.
Think in an RSA he would be beaten by quicker horses. Apache went past him and looked the classier animal to me,and just got outstayed.Hes not a 3 miler. DP 4 miler, Apache JLT, on the strength of what I just seen. |
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Had a little bit more on Apache for the JLT.
20/1 still available with VC, around twice the price of everyone else. The front two both have big futures over fences. |
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Surely Buddeliea both horses should be going for the RSA after that. Apache Stronghold has run a far better race than in the Drinmore and Don Poli has run some race to win and just outstayed him. If he's a possible future Gold Cup horse then it has to be RSA. He wouldn't have hugely dissimilar profile to Sir Des Champs - neither stood out over hurdles but bothe ended up winning the Martin Pipe conditionals race and have improved massively going chasing.
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Just going on my feeling after watching the race mate.
Apache showed me hes the classier horse, going past him after the last and not getting home,DP looked to me like an out and out stayer and I think a decent ground RSA would find him out against faster horses. Its just how I read the race....In time I may be proved wrong though,if so fair enough. |
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I don't see him as a future Gold Cup horse at all to be honest.
Guess we shall see. |
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Budd
You should listen to Bryan Cooper's Irish Field podcast from a few weeks ago. He thought that Don Poli would be the Gigginstown RSA horse then and that if he keeps improving, he could be a Gold Cup horse in 2016. Read the jockey and trainer's post race comments today - this horse is the real deal and will be nowhere near the NH Chase if O'Leary has any sense. I've backed him to win any race but Mullins says he going to give him a Moriarty entry. SYT - his profile is very similar to SDS, the main difference being that he won the Martin Pipr off a 9lb higher mark and at this stage of his development, has probably demonstrated a higher level of form. |
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Cheers FF.Yeh, ive read and heard all sorts of comments from connections mate. I'm just using my eyes, even though they don't always give me correct information
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Cant listen to anything Mullins says, if you done that you end up backing each of his horses for 6 different races
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A great race today and hopefully we'll get a rematch of the front two in the Moriarty. Apache Stronghold was lightning over his fences and he could go either way regards trip. I don't think it was a case of running out of petrol today - just beaten by a top opponent. I think Don Poli is probably quicker than he appears, just a real lazy type. Maybe neither will run in the RSA, but at this stage I'd prefer both to Kings Palace.
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Bryan Cooper knows he's got that won jumping the last imo. He doesn't ask him for anything but just makes sure he gets to the other side before picking back up.
He's outclassed Apache, not outstayed him. Carberry's style often results in horses looking like they don't get him, when that is not really the case also. |
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I've watched the race twice now. AS was very free for the first few fences because of the modest gallop. It was a slow run race with 4 of them in a heap turning in. The winner will be much better suited by a true run race.
If all the Gigginstown best fancies make the gig, I'll be looking at backing Cooper to be top jockey. |
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A year and a change in jockey has made some difference to Gigginstown. Last year at the Leopardstown Festival, they had 2 winners - a Handicap Hurdle and a Bumper.
This year - 5 winners including 4 G1's: Clarcam, Lieutenant Colonel, Road to Riches & Don Poli. Valseur Lido, No More Heroes, Don Cossack & Tell Us More to look forward to too. Poor old Davy Russell.  Cooper is a brilliant jockey though and things are really going well for him. |
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Aye Cooper deserves it as well. He's top class and had some bad luck last season with being jocked off Our Connor and then a pretty serious leg break.
I'd like to see him top jock. |