Cheltenham Festival
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If hf goes unbeaten until Cheltenham,what will he ride..the hurricane...or the machine that is faugheen?
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I reckon he will be able to win on Faugheen and still have time to get The Fly up on the line before Jezki and The New One.
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I dont see the possibility of a dilemma
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Is it just me or do you get the feeling that Cheltenham is off the agenda this year and they're going to try and win as many of the winter G1 races instead. I'd be really surprised if he ran in the CH - bar the ground maybe being too quick, everything went his way last year with the unfortunate demise of Our Connor and interference of TNO, and his legs just weren't up to a CH anymore.
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In my opinion, that was The Fly's last run over 2 miles. He has his 20 grade one victories and will now be upped in trip.
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So pleased to see the fly picking up another grade 1 win
However, conditions suited him today and Jezki often needs a run whilst not have AP or Barry G on him I dont think Mullins will ever bring him back over unless there are huge absences in the CH and it comes up soft |
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I think there's plenty of life left in Hurricane Fly and he'll give a fair account of himself in the two big hurdle races at Leopardstown in December and January. There's very few options in Ireland for a 2m 4f hurdler (the Hatton's Grace the only option) so I'd say the Fly will stay at 2m for now. If he went to Cheltenham unbeaten, I could not see Ruby getting off him purely out of loyalty however there's a world of difference in the Champion Hurde and these winter grade 1's in Ireland. So while I could see him landing two more Grade 1s before the Festival, I don't think he'd win the big one. On the other hand were he not to run between and then, I would give an outside chance as I've felt the last few seasons Mullins has tried to do too much with him in a short space of time. Last season he was trained for 4 races. Were he trained for 1 like Jezki, it may have been different. And I'm one of those people who say the Fly is not a "Cheltenham horse"!!
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Agreed Paterson. Fully expect to see him line up in the World Hurdle come March.
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Me too so you think,I'm all over faugheen this year but hf will win again on that kind of ground !
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I'm not sure about the Stayers. There's plenty of races over two miles in Ireland for him to compete in (the Ryanair Hurdle, the Irish Champion Hurdle and the one at Punchestown). I see no reason to change tack him until he's been consistently found out over the minimum trip. Anyone who thinks he'll run in the Stayers must surely agree that Mullins will side step Grade 1's that Hurricane Fly has been hovering up for the last 4 seasons in favour of a Grade 2/3 over 2m 4f or 3m ??
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I can see him winning another grade one at Leopardstown. Can see them skipping Chelts and going to France then.
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Totally agree with all points made there mate. But then you've got to take Cheltenham into account. Is it likely for The Fly to return for another crack at the Champion Hurdle? In my opinion that won't be happening. There's still plenty of life left in the old dog yet though. I've listened to a few interviews and podcasts with Willie/Patrick/Ruby and they seem to think upping him in trip will not be an issue. After back to back defeats by Jezki earlier in the year, talk of him being upped in trip became even more realistic. Not only had he had 5 runs in the space of 6 months but he wasn't getting any younger. Taking absolutely nothing way from his victory today (I was cheering him on all the way) but everything was in his favour today and it was always the plan for him to get that 20th Grade 1. Now that has been achieved and the likes of Faugheen are being lined up for the Champion Hurdle it seems being upped in trip is the only way for The Fly to go. There hasn't been one mention of retirement and Mullins has made it very clear he plans to keep The Fly going until it's clear on the track his heart isn't in it. In my opinion, The Fly will get one last race with Jezki in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown in December before running in the 2m4f Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse in January. This will allow Faugheen to mop up a few short priced victories this side of Christmas before meeting Jezki in the Irish Champion Hurdle in January. Depending on how The Fly runs in the Hatton's Grace, depends whether he will appear at Cheltenham or perhaps go to France where he will get his ground.
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Think this thread is premature tbh. Faugheen not raced yet this season or over 2miles in open company.
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I did say if sint,you can't say that about faugheen though,it's 11-4 fav,and it will win !
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Paterson92, the Hatton's Grace will be run on the 30th of this month, not in January.
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Cheers Slabster, wasn't aware of that.
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Unless there is heavy in the going description the Fly won't be at Cheltenham
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Faugheen jumping at CH pace is still an unknown remember...engine or not...he can't keep losing ground in that race.
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Jezki and the new one aren't the best either !
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I'm not sure what the popular opinion regarding Faugheen is but I would see him as much more a Stayers contender than a CH contender
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Until punchestown I would have agreed with you,have you seen the race so you think ?
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Ruby doesn't do dilemma's or sentiment, he'll ride whatever he thinks can win the CH. Unless the ground is unusually soft, can't see the Fly turning up at Cheltenham
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The major thing against Faugheen over three miles is how hard he can pull in a race. Would have to be a big negative in a Stayers Hurdle. Another factor to take into account is that his best jumping performance came over two miles at Punchestown, so it could well be that he jumps better travelling at a faster pace. I find it odd that Faugheen's jumping is highlighted as a negative but The New One has had two season's hurdling now and his jumping leaves a lot to be desired.
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TNO's jumping does get highlighted though....by his detractor's anyhow,to which I'm one....wouldn't tar jezki with the same brush though, he dispelled any doubts I had about him in this years race....how he is 11/2 and TNO is 7/2 is beyond me.
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It'd be a very tough call if both go into the race unbeaten this season which is very much a possibility.
I'd send Faugheen to take on The New One somewhere and if he can tonk him that would help Ruby's decision. |
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Theres no dilemma, until Faugheen proves to be a major CH contender this season and HF gets soft(or worse)ground in march.And also at his age HF has to maintain his form of last week all the way to next March.
If all those things happen, he will have a decision to make. My gut feeling is he wont have to make a decision. |
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I don't buy into this ruby doesn't do sentiment notion, as far as kauto was concerned he never got off of him for denman and I don't ever see him getting off of HF for anything else....even if he thought faugheen was stronger I reckon he'd want to be with HF come what may....I don't think he's as hard nosed as he or anyone else makes out, certainly not when it comes with a couple of horses that have played a massive part in his own story...so to speak.
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No decision, Hurricane Fly ain't winning another Champion Hurdle, yes Faugheen still has to prove he is up to winning the a Champion Hurdle - if Ruby wants to give himself the best chance of winning the race he will be on Faugheen
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Ruby clearly had a soft spot for Kauto, as he probably does for HF. However Kauto was never in a race where he had the option of picking a clearly better horse (you could argue 3m2f round Cheltenham suited Denman better, but there wasn't a lot in it). It's a little too early to say yet, but, if HF doesn't goes on winning in Ireland, he may be in the position where his favourite has a noticeably inferior chance this year. It'll be interesting to see what he does then.
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Can see mullins taking the fly to aintree for the 2m 4f race there. They won't take him to Cheltenham this year.
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^
agree with that stafford and if HF runs it is then where I suspect ruby will surprise a few by showing a surprising sentimental side and picking HF and if this is the case I suspect that mullins will want to sidestep the CH altogether with him and give him the back-up of one last punchestown run. |
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Aside from injury or sudden decline, the only other reason i can see Ruby NOT riding hurricane fly in the champion hurdle is good ground and even that might not stop them trying. Too many records on the line, too little opposition, too little time left with him. Dont buy that hes anything other than a 2 miler, or that Ruby would consider getting off him to ride a 2nd season, untested, multi-miler, however good faugheen looks.
If its fast ground, then hurricane places or needs some luck against 2 flawed horses. Slow ground hes got a huuuuge chance of winning it. |
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Hurricane Fly will run wherever the Riccis decide and yes I know they don't own him, but the stable revolves around there horses.
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"their horses"
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Have been reading this thread, and it is, as they say, one of the most ridiculous threads i've ever had the misfortune to spend my time however cheap
 it is reading it.How do we know that these horses are going to be fit and well and even turn up in March  Which is a full 4 months away and at least 9 races between each of them! If i may add something into the mix, Ruby will ride Hurricane Fly if he gets to the Churdle. No doubt about it in my mind whatsoever! A past dual winner of the race, what jockey is going to get off to ride some 2nd season hurdler who will still have it to do on that famous Cheltenham 'Old' racecourse |
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Whos to know god forbid that even Ruby Walsh himself makes it to the festival
He has missed 2 festivals in his career through injury hasn't he |
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Well if HF gets to run in the CH, then that would mean I imagine that hes proven over the season to be still up for it,so you could well be right STS.
Although last season he had proved that and he was well beat,and another year on...is he any better? Jezki and the TNO should be. And Faugheen may well be unbeaten. Maybe Ruby will be thinking of all that? |
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Sea the stars for someone who thinks it's a ridiculous thread you have plenty to say on the matter,you dickhead
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Certainly not a ridiculous thread, although i agree with STS that if Hurricane fly runs, then Ruby will be on him.
I dont think faugheen can have much say in that either - even if he laughed off Jezki and TNO before March (which is massively unlikely), walsh and mullins just need a sniff of a 3rd title with HF and that will be instant re-route for faugheen. Same as Annie Power/Quevega/HF last year. Pretty confident with that but where it gets messy is what constitutes a sniff. Last I heard HF beat the current champ. The current odds baffle me for this race, so much confidence that HF cannot beat Jezki in March but 'will probably beat him over the winter'. Maybe true but its based on two races within 2 months! |
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Hurricane is a lot better in Ireland than at Cheltenham thats weird to say about a two time Champion hurdle winner, even the 2nd win was a real grind where he looked well beat. I just dont see him winning the champion regardless of what he does in small irish fields this year
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