Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
06 May 14
17:56
Joined:
Date Joined:
24 Apr 09
Love ante post had some cracking winners but more losers however its getting impossible now .... so many of Mullins could go anywhere and he's still got injured ones coming back Pont Alex to name but 1....
Annie Power - Champion - Stayers - Arkle - JLT - RSA- MARES - Gold Cup.................
Faugheen/Vautour - Stay hurdling - go chasing ' least 3 or 4 entries for each id guess
Un De Seaux - Hurdling/Chasing
and properly at least 20 novices that will all be entered in the Supreme- Neptune - Albert Bartlett
Thats just a few puzzles that Willie has to sort never mind the punter
Bookmakers must be pulling there hair out as turnover on Ante Post for Cheltenham is on a very downward slide and for me that's sad
Annie Power - Champion - Stayers - Arkle - JLT - RSA- MARES - Gold Cup.................
Faugheen/Vautour - Stay hurdling - go chasing ' least 3 or 4 entries for each id guess
Un De Seaux - Hurdling/Chasing
and properly at least 20 novices that will all be entered in the Supreme- Neptune - Albert Bartlett
Thats just a few puzzles that Willie has to sort never mind the punter
Bookmakers must be pulling there hair out as turnover on Ante Post for Cheltenham is on a very downward slide and for me that's sad
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 52
|
By:
It's the bookmakers fault! Everything is focused too much around Cheltenham with them now, as soon as something wins a novice hurdle/chase well you see bookmakers falling over themselves too offer a short price for Cheltenham. Have a look at the markets now, take Champagne Fever for example, should be at least 25/1 for the Gold Cup.......ridiculous prices about now
|
|
By:
Mullins Walsh and Ricci are nobs. Lets be honest. Nobody is asking for the plans for the season but with a fortnight to go dont tell us you dont know its pathetic
|
|
By:
Mullins Walsh and Ricci are nobs
 |
|
By:
They are. Completely pointless interviewing them. Dont bother asking about any future plans cos they dont say anything. Just say well done and walk off. Pain in the harris
|
|
By:
im not disagreeing mate, the irish national hunt mafia never give anything away
|
|
By:
As prices shrivel they kill off true racing enthusiasts interest and their kids in the future, all the time viewing figures fall. Fobt's rule ok.
To regenerate books ban fobt's to force bookmakers to become more competitive in price on races and antepost. |
|
By:
agree with all that but would you seriously want to be a bookie just waiting to be picked off by mullins punters in the know , last year they knew around November what races all the top horses were aiming for , they all got double figure plus prices on horses that started around 2/1 , I blame the owners and trainers who tell the public nothing , if there were no punters , no racing and they get treated like scum
|
|
By:
cv byrne called every horse right in which races they ran in !
|
|
By:
patches...what goes around comes around.
The owners and trainers will struggle to get their bets on before not too long at the rate public viewing figures are dropping. Sponsors will lose interest more and more as public interest in the sport declines. It could take as little as 10-20 years for the old time racing punters to either die out or lose interest then what? |
|
By:
You would have to be an idiot or a liar, not to know two weeks before Cheltenham, what race you have been aiming at all season.
|
|
By:
as i have said before they dont want us to know...just follow the money they are putting on !
|
|
By:
to be fair to some trainers ground will play a part and they may wish to wait to some extent to know what they are facing.
|
|
By:
Don't see the problem with them keeping their options open or their cards close to their chests. If they announced early what races each horse was 100% definitely going for their would still be no ante post value anyway. The day of race markets are so strong these days you might as well just wait.
|
|
By:
Yes but we like the buzz 'uncle' and if you are right (which I think you are) the volume of races these horses can enter, plus mullins keeping tight lipped, has as the original poster says finished ante post.
|
|
By:
It's a great loss to the game but the big firms have the ante post markets by the balls. If you're in the know then you've half a chance but a punter using form, race reading and instinct needs luck and even then it may do them no good. I backed one for Cheltenham last season before Christmas. It was unbeaten and remained unbeaten until Cheltenham. I had to sweat on it all the way to Cheltenham because it didn't run after Christmas and in the run up to the race the trainer insisted he was unsure if it would be given the green light to run.
After all that I could have got bigger on the day than I had taken ante post. I doubt I'll back anything ante post this year which is shame because one of the great joys of the game was having half a bolllock near the fire and hoping it kept warm rather than got burnt. Now you pretty much know you're going to betting casualty unless you get lucky. |
|
By:
RIP....is right....
|
|
By:
was your horse vaseur lido (incorrect spelling)
|
|
By:
May have been Wonderful Charm .... Nicholls has a habit resting horses for cheltenham after December and the record is very very poor..... time to reconsider Mr Nicholls
|
|
By:
Glad so many agree about Ante Post being a farce now ............
|
|
By:
Sorry Howdi was that for me?
If so no it was More Of That. |
|
By:
Cheers pal MOT that did go 28s on here 2 weeks before the race fro mmemory , I know because I loaded up and changed my mind
 |
|
By:
I was sweating buckets at that stage. I'm no longer sure ante post holds much juice. There's quite a few trainers you wouldn't trust, extra races which complicate potential engagements and bookies squeezing the life out of the market. I'm sure opportunities will continue to present themselves but it's not like the old days where you could instantly take a position based on your judgement and be rewarded with a price which truly was value. So many examples spring to mind. I remember turning to my mate after Rooster Booster won first time out in the season he won the champion and I said that could be the champion hurdle winner and he said the day a county hurdler wins a champion he'd give up. Silly bugger listened to him and if memory serves me right he was still available at something like 50-1 at the time.
|
|
By:
Having said that I'll contradict myself because after Cheltenham this year I thought Faugheen was value for next years champion. For me he showed enough tactical speed at the relevant points to be value for his price which I think was as big as 16-1. I don't know what their intentions are with the horse but he's plenty short enough now.
|
|
By:
Rooster Booster was 16s (pre season) from memory the season he won the champion hurdle, or even less not sure where 50s came from!!!
|
|
By:
good point eeternal....mullins put me off by saying vautour was best of the two.
|
|
By:
I could be wrong but I can't believe I was that wrong. He looked totally exposed before winning the county at 8 years old off about 140 and even after the performance which impressed me (Kempton if memory serves me right) where he absolutely laughed at the second who was rated about 150 he was still a big price to win the Greatwood off just over 150. I think only then did people cotton on to the possibility he could be a viable championship horse.
|
|
By:
I try not to pay attention to trainers. I take the Paxman line of wondering why the lying baastards are lying to me. To be fair though Vautour may show more at home but I remember Faugheen lobbing along in front in the champion bumper at Punchestown until the jockey gave him a tap and the horse started doing handstands up the home straight as he raced away. I thought they may have needed to let a parachute loose at the end to get him to stop.
|
|
By:
I think Faugheen's last performance of last season,. was the best performance of the entire National Hunt Season. Love to see him take on Jezki early season so we can see how he stands.
|
|
By:
That's the fly in the ointment for me. Following it I was all over that years supreme like a rash (Jezki, MTOY and Mullins' chaser). I thought that was an outstanding race the way those three put that field to bed. I couldn't decide between the other two for this years champion (wish I had a silver ball or a forecast) and never lost faith that Jezki was a seriously good horse granted the right conditions. Despite him being the champ and pulverising The Fly at Punchestown I still get the feeling people arent quite believing how good that horse is. I expect more of the same this year with Cheltenham being the aim. They'll all come out and people will be shouting about this horse or that but I wouldn't want to be laying Jezki or Faugheen. I wouldn't mind being a layer of The New One because I think his price will be shorter than what I think his chance is because whatever else happens I don't think he's got the tactical speed to go with them down the hill and will be playing catch up.
|
|
By:
Agree with jezki still been under rated. The New One seems to like finding a bit of trouble for me.
Aintree last year - should have hosed up didn't. Against zarkandar this year - stopped for him, then pulverised him. Against MTOY - Bashed the last. Champion hurdle - Not his fault but in trouble. Aintree hurdle - mae hard work of it when idling. all a bit too much for me, for it to be bad luck |
|
By:
I think The New One would be a good back to lay though, because I could see him easily winning the International again, and probably going close in the Christmas Hurdle, so I can see him being half the price he is now around Christmas.
Jezki on the other hand, I think he'll find it tough against Vautour/ Faugheen and UDS in Ireland. That doesn't mean Jezki can't beat the Mullins ones at Cheltenham, but I can't see his price being that much shorter throughout the winter. Agree with the original post; until hurdle/chase plans are determined (espcially by Mullins) it makes any betting now very hard. There are also others to come back from injury like Pont Alexandre, Simonsig, Sprinter, Sir Des Champs etc. Aside from Mullins, the plans for others over hurdles vs chase apply to a few others, like More of That, Briar Hill, The Tullow Tank, Whisper, Very Wood etc will have an impact on the markets. |
|
By:
more of that eagerly awaited, will be fav for world hurdle or the rsa (and possibly jeson).
|
|
By:
Add to the comeback from injury list, can't believe I forgot Cue Card. One who I would love to see tear it up around Cheltenham would be Flemenstar, but I doubt we'll ever get to see that, and he's probably past his peak now. They needed to take him to the Arkle against Sprinter to strike when the iron was hot.
Defy Logic is one I've got in my mind for the Champion Chase as well, currently at 33's. With doubts over Sprinter, I can't see too many challenging SDG. |
|
By:
^^^ what about simonsig. (agree with you at prices defy logic is big).
|
|
By:
Jeeez. I'm bursting now and we aren't out of July. Get this rubbish off and lets get back to the proper stuff.
|
|
By:
I'll be surprised if any of this years Champion Hurdle field win it next year. Jezki, MTOY, TNO all very good horses but pretty much of a muchness. Jezki at Chelt I would just prefer but like I say not much between them. MTOY was beat giving a lot of weight to Cockney Sparrow at Ayr and also MTOY beat CS in the Fighting Fifth but not nearly as impressive as when Annie Power beat her at Doncaster(CS fell when beat) and Punchestown. MTOY just beat TNO. Jezki just beat MTOY. All much of a muchness and probably not as good as Annie Power on a line through Cockney Sparrow. However, she is unlikely to go for the Champion and an opportunity was missed last season. Un De Sceaux could be anything but looks like he is with the wrong owners and Mullins won't want to upset the Ricci's this year after giving The Fly every opportunity last year by not running UDS. Therefore we have Vautour brilliant winner of the Supreme and the year older Faugheen equally brilliant winner of the Neptune and more impressive of the 2 at Punchestown. I believe either of these are more than capable of winning the 2015 Champion and a current rating of 158 for both is understated. I think if they see these as potential chasers in the future then they will possibly go chasing now with Faugheen with him being a year older. Just my summer thoughts with no inside info so I may be way off the mark with their plans. Roll on October for proper racing.
|
|
By:
^^^ FAUGHEEN rated 161 ^^^
|
|
By:
they aint going chasing with faugheen staying hurdling.
|
|
By:
ps/ if anyone wants an excel sheet of bhb ratings I can let you have an excel copy.
|