Don't understand Rathvinden gamble?

Yeah same here he beat him fair and square and was still going away while Rathvinden cracked. Just thought they would be smashing into Faugheen from the same stable as Rathvinden.

yes i'd certainly like to explain that from my opinion.

If you watched the race at warwick, rathvinden looked like it was going to hack up (imo) only for taking a very nasty fall. I think the horse still had that fall in the memory when going around cheltenham even though he didn't fall LTO. I just think geraghty had not over worked him and allowed the horse to take his time when jumping each hurdle. This would of done rathvinden the world of confidence and that's why i would expect a better run at the festival.....if he doesn't fall obviously!

As stated above rathviden was giving red sherlock 3lbs and got beat by 2 1/2 lenghts. Geraghty apparently said that he expects it to reverse the form especially if there is good ground at the festival.

Faugheen is still the one to beat and think rathvinden will follow him home.

Think you are underestimating Red Sherlock fella, this is one hell of an horse and wont be out of the 1st 3. Even his bumper form stacks up favourably even though he was still very immature and green.

This is just the final section from my notes on the race:

Eliminations & Comments 17/02/14

most have done all their prep runs and will not run again, those that do need to run again should run in a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle over 2 mile 4 furlongs and achieve a top 2 placing with RPR 145+  -  there are few, if any, of those left in the calendar before the Festival. I will re-check all the final entries to make sure none have qualified however the final short list ended up like this:

133-11    Apache Stronghold
26-12    Beat That
11-111    Briar Hill
1-2211    Deputy Dan
2F-111    Kings Palace
1-1111    Red Sherlock
133132 Un Temps Pour Tout

You will notice that I have dismissed the favourite Faugheen and that is for good reason. He has not run in a Grade 1 or 2 and he won a Grade 3 at 3 miles which does not fit with a typical winner. At 3/1 and shorter I am happy to let him go unbacked. He might even go in the 3 mile Albert Bartlett. You never know with Mullins. Briar Hill would be a very strong contender if turning up here having won two key trials in the Slaney and Navan Novice Hurdles and if he does run in here I will back him.

Kings Palace is all set for the Albert Bartlett and will be strongly fancied there.

Red Sherlock is unbeaten and won the Grade 2 Classic Novices Hurdle over the C&D distance. This was the race where At Fisher's Cross beat The New One last year. He is British bred, a negative for me, was reported to flash his tail last time and comes from a yard with no record of success. I will be against him.

Beat That is probably smart but has only raced twice over hurdles and not since December 6th. He will need to run again and impress to remain under consideration. Probably won't even be declared.

Deputy Dan won a key trial, also won by The New One, and we backed him. He would be a danger to all on slow ground as he is a real galloper.

Apache Stronghold looked potentially smart when winning a key trial in November but the fact he has not run since is a major concern. He was intended to run in the Navan Novice Hurdle against Briar Hill but was found to have a foot abscess. He is a chaser in the making and it would not surprise if they left him alone til next season.

Un Temps Pour Tout just won at Ascot and was previously 2nd in a Grade 2 on his first British start. He has won at 2 miles 4 furlongs and never been worse than 3rd in his 11 starts which is a lot more than a typical winner.

21st February Further Comment

Following further research I observe:

Apache Stronghold has not been confirmed.

Pipe yard has a miserable record and all of his are dismissed

Beat That has not been declared

This leaves us with Briar Hill and Deputy Dan of my initial short list.

However, having repeated the elimination process from the beginning I noted Rathvinden who I had dismissed for not winning at 2 miles 4 furlongs but who hit virtually every other trend. He was 2nd in a key Grade 2 trial at Cheltenham over the C&D recording an RPR of 147. He was giving weight to the winner and was heavily backed. He is trained by Willie Mullins, who has the best record, and started his career in Irish Point to Points. I note he won a 2 mile 2 furlong bumper on good ground easily – will he improve for better going? Had he won either of those last two starts he would have automatically been on the short list so what if we forgive him? Would 20/1 be a good price? I think so and I doubt he will be going for any other races.

Deputy Dan has a strong preference for deep winter going and may run in the Albert Bartlett according to his trainer. Briar Hill may also go for that race.

The Market

Faugheen: 3/1, not run Grade 1 or 2, not run same calendar year. Not for me
Red Sherlock: 11/2, Pipe trained, dismissed
Royal Boy: 14/1, 7 year old, NJH, second season hurdler, dismissed
Un Temps Pour Tout: 16/1 Pipe, second season, 11 hurdles, 3rd in one, dismissed
Deputy Dan: 16/1, on short list, need heavy, still considered, maybe Albert Bartlett
Briar Hill: 16/1, excellent profile if running, 4/1 2nd fav Albert Bartlett
Vautour: 16/1, current fav for Supreme, unlikely runner in Neptune
Sure Reef: 20/1 flat bred, dismissed
Ballyalton: 20/1, 7yo, 4th lto, never ran in graded
Kings Palace: 25/1, Pipe, fav for Albert Bartlett, unlikely runner
Diamond King: 25/1,  err... no chance! Pfft
Captain Cutter: 25/1, Challow winner = dismissed
Fennell Bay: 33/1 flat bred type, dismissed
Vieux Lion Rouge : 33/1, winning at Sedgefield! Dismissed
Champagene West: 33/1, no graded races, RPR too low, probably go hcp route, dismissed
Valseur Lido: 33/1, nice prospect but not for this race, no graded form, no run since December
Rennetti: 33/1 flat bred, dismissed
The rest: no hopers

So, you can see that I am against most of the field for some good reasons. The only reason to be against Rathvinden is his failure to win at 2 miles 4 furlongs. Given his 147 RPR in a Grade 2, I don't think it would have been too hard for Willie to find an easy 2 mile 4 race for him. Anyway, the key part is the price at 20/1 which I think will collapse nearer the day and taking NRFB won't hurt. We can always get stuck in for more once the full NRNB kicks in.

Betting Advice

Back RATHVINDEN non runner free bet or no bet

Lieutenant Colonel is definitely not a no-hoper in this

No bother.I've got Faugheen at 10s n the colonel at 20s. Only a coupla lengths behind Vautour and Wicklow Brave with Rathvinden an F2 is it? If they both get pumped the cue card has **** all chance of staying in the gold cup lay will cover it