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Cheltenham Festival

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foolsgold123
06 Mar 14 20:25
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Date Joined: 16 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 559 | Blogger: foolsgold123's blog
Smashed Up NRNB BOG Ive backed it for the Gold Cup then the World Hurdle now getting well backed in Ryanair. I still have faith in this horse do you? Probably not haha.

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Replies: 57
By:
shockster
When: 06 Mar 14 20:29
Would be a surprise, but definitely not impossible.
By:
quantize
When: 06 Mar 14 20:29
Good spot - worth an EW at 20s BOG NRNB. Had a cheeky £5 ew
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 06 Mar 14 20:38
This horse has always been one I've backed so had a little tickle at this.
By:
gazovic
When: 06 Mar 14 20:43
Id expect 20s to compensate for 2 x pressure falls and a lto course smashing

quite fancy a wee go in a tight book though Crazy
By:
bonnie
When: 06 Mar 14 20:45
would it have the pace for ryanair ??

i very much doubt it !!!!!!!!!!
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Mar 14 21:18
Has there ever been a horse to fcuk so many people's minds as this one? Backed him for the WH but he is not winning that. If he wins Ryanair great news for TTF points.
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Mar 14 21:54
I just tweeted this about an hour ago. Totally agree, 20/1 is 6/1 if he lines up with Ruby on and Mullins with 2/3 winners on the board.
By:
jasey
When: 06 Mar 14 23:01
Replaced Grans Crus as the "just let it go" horse
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 06 Mar 14 23:02
6/1? After getting beat 50 lengths LTO and hit the deck in last two chase runs?Laugh
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 06 Mar 14 23:03
CV would you back it if it wasn't trained by Mullins and ridden by Walsh? Have you backed their whole stable this year?
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Mar 14 23:30
I predominantly back Irish Horses (being Irish) as they are often overlooked for awhile by English punters. You can still get good antepost value in January on plenty of them. Clearly in recent years Mullins has come to dominate in Ireland so it's a knock on effect that he trains lots of horses I back at Cheltenham. I do think he's a superb trainer, and Ruby Walsh is the best Jock around.

I back horses on their individual merits. I do enjoy Mullins more so as I've had success placing his good horses and not put off by this idea he's out to trick punters etc..
By:
judorick
When: 06 Mar 14 23:33
do any of you know or even care about the record of Irish trained horses in the Ryan Air and previously the Cathcart?
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Mar 14 23:33
Joined: 22 Jul 08 | Topic/replies: 909 | Blogger: jasey's blog
Replaced Grans Crus as the "just let it go" horse


Oh this horse has most certainly cost me more money than he's won for me. I've backed him 4 times and he's lost 3 of those times. But the Ryanair is going to be a pretty terrible field.
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Mar 14 23:37
judorick 06 Mar 14 23:33 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 21,632 | Blogger: judorick's blog
do any of you know or even care about the record of Irish trained horses in the Ryan Air and previously the Cathcart?


Absolutely not. If you believe the bad record means something explain what the underlying factor is.

Also explain why Nicky Henderson had never won the Neptune until 2012

Also explain the bad record of Triumph winners prior to Katchit winning.

No horse has ever regained the Gold Cup, that was another good one.


etc...
By:
judorick
When: 06 Mar 14 23:39
just asking
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 06 Mar 14 23:45
it's 0 from 24 in the Ryanair with 2 Gigginstown horses as runner up.


Fair challenge though CV - my random thought would be that possibly the Irish have been slow to embrace the race in its' latest incarnation because they prefer the tradition and prestige of the true Championship races - Gigginstown might be an exception because they need to support the race for obvious reasons but,yes, an Irish winner is surely only a matter of time.

With regard to Bob, Mullins terminology earlier in the week seemed a bit negative to me - words to the effect that ' he's not been ruled out of anything yet'.
By:
kingkauto
When: 06 Mar 14 23:46
Boston Bob broke my heart last year in the RSA. in fact he's been my arch nemesis over the last 2 seasons. Like an earlier poster advised ive given up on him, too much unrequited love going on.!
If he turns up, i think the Ryanair is the only race he can win. Ive concluded he doesnt stay the Gold Cup trip. The Ryanair is going to cut up dramatically so nrnb might not be a bad play as he will be shorter on the day.
Bit of a stretch to see him winning tho in terms of value i think there are a lot worse outsiders. And in response to an earlier post surely Ruby will ride Felix Yonger??
By:
judorick
When: 06 Mar 14 23:47
and if you look at the Cathcart which preceded the race, it's one winner since 1973
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Mar 14 23:51
There will always be an odd stat around. In racing and every other sport. Sure in football they'll throw up odd stats all the time. People seem to have a kind of fascination with them.

In my opinion the time spent discussing them should be better spent focusing on individual horses merits.
By:
judorick
When: 06 Mar 14 23:56
there are many ways to skin a cat
By:
Tory
When: 07 Mar 14 00:22
Judo, you not posting your stats this year? Always an enjoyable read
By:
bigblockhead
When: 07 Mar 14 00:28
I backed him in the albert Bartlett the RSA and the trials day and I should really hate the nag but I know he has the ability to win a nice prize,
in the AB Campbell Gillies (rip) gave brindisi a great ride and ruby gave him too much rope , the RSA was unlucky imo as townend asked for a big un at the last and bob put down (the move around the field before the second last got the pulse racing and I'm 99% sure he would have outstayed LW and won as he beat the same rival with a fantastic burst at leap the race before) and I have to scratch trials day from memory as that wasn't the true bob for one reason or another. If we factor in albertas run won the rsa and then went on to win the Ryanair twice dropping in distance then BB would have a winning profile if not falling at the last last year which is factored into his price being 22 on betfair at the moment. if he turns up he must be a serious player should ruby decide to ride 4/5 when in the saddle.
By:
jasey
When: 07 Mar 14 00:59
All the reasons not to touch him.
The excuses for this horse are doing my head in
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Mar 14 08:21
I honestly can't believe anybody would back this horse now. Negative vibes left,right and centre.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 07 Mar 14 10:47
His form is actually shyte as well. If he wasn't trained by Mullins and was trained in England certain people on here would be saying no chance
By:
shockster
When: 07 Mar 14 11:10
Sintonian mentioned on another thread that if they want to go for The Grand National with Boston Bob, then they need to qualify by finishing in the 1st 4 over 3 miles.  Seems logical if the GN is on the agenda that he will try for the Gold Cup in order to qualify for the race.
By:
jasey
When: 07 Mar 14 13:12
Seems unlogical to me,be good ground by then as well.
If he lines  up in the GN it will be dark by the time he completes that race
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 07 Mar 14 13:27
Wouldnt get round.
By:
shockster
When: 07 Mar 14 13:28
It's entered!!!!
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 07 Mar 14 13:37
Pointless.com. Horse is a ****g dog
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Mar 14 21:54
goes for this race now apparently.
By:
CVByrne
When: 08 Mar 14 11:22
Horse has talent but has had niggling problems. He would have won the RSA last year given how well he stays. Also he has speed as he showed in that race. He won the Dr PJ Moriarty last season also which is over 2m5f beating some good horses in there.

He's been unlucky at Cheltenham, in the Albert Bartlett he got a shocker of a ride from Ruby. Ruby has said it was one of the worst rides he's ever ridden at Cheltenham. Then he fell in RSA, who knows if Ruby had not been forced to ride Unioniste he may won.

He still looks a bit of value at 14/1 as there will be a few n/r from that field. You can likely lay your stake back at sp as the Ruby/Mullins factor could be in full swing by Thursday.

Also the possibility of good ground will really help his cause, though the trip might be too short for him. Look I've always had a love for this horse so would really enjoy it if he won here.
By:
hoggy3131
When: 08 Mar 14 11:50
He would have won the RSA last year given how well he stays........???????   If its one thing this horse does, it's not stay a distance. How many more times does he have to prove it.
By:
marychain1
When: 08 Mar 14 11:59
If it was my horse I'd definitely be sending First Lieutenant to the Ryanair, whatever Last Instalment does. There's no Cue Card or anything anywhere near as good as Cue Card in the race this year. For me it would be a toss up between Benefficient and First Lieutenant. Can't understand why you'd not want it to run.
By:
CVByrne
When: 08 Mar 14 12:52
judorick 06 Mar 14 23:56 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 21,664 | Blogger: judorick's blog
there are many ways to skin a cat


I think the merit of this post can't go understated. There are many ways to approach profitable betting and there are methods I don't like but it doesn't mean they are not successful methods.

Using Trends & stats is a good way to narrow down a field and focus the analysis on fewer horses. The logic there is pretty sound. My approach is to consider the merits of every horse and look for an angle and approach others don't take. So for me I'd not like to use trends and I don't pay attention to the stats in racing as in my opinion they are misleading. I do get a tad irked when a stat is thrown up to say why a selection won't or can't win rather than the person discussing the actual horse in question and not a stat.

I do like how some trends point me to the underlying factor. But if I don't find a factor for the trend or stat I disregard it. This is just my approach, everyone needs to use their own methods or the methods that work.
By:
Giddy
When: 13 Mar 14 15:56
After that run from Boston Bob I would have though that there is no doubt he wants every inch of a 3 mile chase
Lets hope that his trained accordingly
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 13 Mar 14 16:14
Most overrated horse in training.
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 14 Mar 14 09:28
10/1 fook me...horse hates it now
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Mar 14 18:37
Is he confirmed for the Bowl this week? He's been backed in a few places, tops is now 12/1. I guess the RSA form looks markedly different now with Lord Windermere being a GC winner. Maybe Mullins should have had him in the GC like originally he did.
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