Cheltenham Festival
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I think the Cheltenham argument against Sire De Grugy is overstated. He's run there twice and finished second twice.
First run was his second start start over fences and he finished 2L behind his main danger for next week's race Captain Conan.
Second run was this season where he failed late on to give 10lbs to a mercurial rival in Kid Cassidy.
I think because he comes from an unfashionable stable and is a short price, people are using the Cheltenham rationale to look for an alternative.
In my opinion this race is obvious. Sure De Grugy is the best horse in the race and will win based on form this season. Nothing should even get close. Captain Conan his only rival who you could genuinely fear.
Arvika Legionnaire has won some shocking races in Ireland to-date and Baily Green is being fancied on the basis of finishing runner-up in last year's very weak Arkle. Sizing Europe winning at the age of 12 would be the story of the season but although I believe in fairy tales, I can't see this one being realized. Hinterland a second season novice - really can't have him. Kid Cassidy is hit and miss and form from Cheltenham last year leaves him with 5 or 6 lengths to make up on Sire De Grugy.
Surely the 9/4 on offer is value? Plus I expect the Mullins / Henderson / JP horses to see support which will probably lead to a further lengthening in Sire De Grugy's price. Really don't think when punters come to looking at this race, they should complicate for looking for reasons why Sire De Grugy won't win. Because this is one race my mind is made up on.
First run was his second start start over fences and he finished 2L behind his main danger for next week's race Captain Conan.
Second run was this season where he failed late on to give 10lbs to a mercurial rival in Kid Cassidy.
I think because he comes from an unfashionable stable and is a short price, people are using the Cheltenham rationale to look for an alternative.
In my opinion this race is obvious. Sure De Grugy is the best horse in the race and will win based on form this season. Nothing should even get close. Captain Conan his only rival who you could genuinely fear.
Arvika Legionnaire has won some shocking races in Ireland to-date and Baily Green is being fancied on the basis of finishing runner-up in last year's very weak Arkle. Sizing Europe winning at the age of 12 would be the story of the season but although I believe in fairy tales, I can't see this one being realized. Hinterland a second season novice - really can't have him. Kid Cassidy is hit and miss and form from Cheltenham last year leaves him with 5 or 6 lengths to make up on Sire De Grugy.
Surely the 9/4 on offer is value? Plus I expect the Mullins / Henderson / JP horses to see support which will probably lead to a further lengthening in Sire De Grugy's price. Really don't think when punters come to looking at this race, they should complicate for looking for reasons why Sire De Grugy won't win. Because this is one race my mind is made up on.
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Sssshhhhh! The more people knock him, the bigger his price will be. I wouldn't be surprised at this rate if Captain Conan went off favourite.
I think SDG will be the widest margin winner of the four championship races....and no, I'm not on yet, but will be when his price drifts even further! |
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Price is skinny.
He had a better chance of winning with Sprinter Sacre in the race imo. |
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It's one of those
You back him and he gets beat and you think about hiscourse form not being great and that hes had a hard season. You leave him alone and he wins and you think how did I let the most improved and consistent horse of the season go off at that price |
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Was originally buying into the Cheltenham argument but when you look at his form lines, they're really solid.
The one thing that puts me off is that I thought Kid Cassidy picked him off pretty easily at the Open Meeting notwithstanding the 10lbs he was getting. I'm struggling to come up with one to oppose him with - actually quite tempted by Wishfull Thinking - admittedly SdG beat him comfortably at Sandown last spring but would have been the fresher horse on a track which would n't have played to WT's strengths. WT won same handicap at Open Meeting which he won 3 years ago off 8lb higher mark so even at 11 little evidence he's regressing - in fact he's been very consistent all season apart from his opener at Aintree. Trouble is he looked like he got tapped for toe down the back straight in the Paddy Power which does n't augur well for a Queen Mother attempt. So it's possible this is indeed Wishful Thinking and comes back to OPs point - you've got to try to be clever and engineer a case for any of the others when the case for the favourite is straightforward and undeniable. I'll leave it until the day now. |
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Totally agree with the OP. He should be more like 6/4. There seems to be very little in the way of dangers. I actually rate Arvika, but I can't have him going left handed. Even though he's now 12, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sizing Europe fill one of the places.
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This is what his trainer said after he won the Tingle Creek - read into it what you will
"He won't necessarily go to Cheltenham as I think he needs a more conventional track. For some people it's the be all and end all, but not for me. I'd like to take him to France at some stage." He is going to keep drifting imo, the bookies all seem to want to get him. He did look like he didn't come up the hill last time at Cheltenham, but actually it wasn't such a bad run as he was giving weight away. Personally, I'd be more worried about the ground than the track, I think he's much better on soft and it looks like it could be near enough good by Wednesday. I've backed him every time he's run this season, probably won't next week but haven't decided yet. |