First Lieutenant - Gold Cup or Ryanair?

has to be the GC - and it should have been last year.....

I hope it's the Ryanair as I have bet it for the GC, nrnb, and it has no chance

depends if Last Instalment runs, still awaiting BHA decision and trainer did say after The Hennessey LI would only run if ground is soft, should be clearer in couple days.

If the ground is riding fast by Gold Cup day, reckon Long Run could go well, 40/1 e/w at mo.

To me it's all about his proximity to Bobsworth. Beaten 1.5L in the Lexus on unsuitable soft ground and beaten 2.5l in the 2012 RSA says he is right in the mix.   Using this line of form says Last Instalment is the horse to beat though as he has bt FL much easier. I just don't see FL having the speed for the Ryanair even though he was 2nd last year. Can't see him getting near Dynaste and Benefficient.

18 chase starts, won 3,  perennial loser imo

Doesn't really answer the question that Judo.  Are you suggesting it should be retired?

he's 4/1 on the place.  His 3 best runs have been at the festival. He's never fallen and has only been out of the top three a few times. At 9 he deserves his one chance for the gold cup. Next year he will be regressing, this is his chance - he deserves it.

shockster got ya pm but didn't get the number to text !

Should be there now Foyles.

Ryanair because he has no chance in the Gold Cup

His trainer, who is no mug, wants the Gold Cup.

Anything this horse achieves before spring and on bad ground is a bonus.  I'd love to see him go for the Cup. 

I'm talking through my pocket a lot here, but I've had a saver on LI just in case Mouse gets overruled again.

Ryanair.

I think he would have a great chance in the race with no Cue Card this year.

He was cruising last year until he uprooted the 3rd last and did amazingly well to
finish as close as he did.

His best peformance last year was over 25f at Aintree on Good ground. He simply does not have the pace for the Ryanair. I guess the opposition this year however is a lot weaker with no Cue Card.

Jackrussel long run not running so gobble up all that 40/1

If Last Instalment is a doubt with the ground then FL is a def starter for the Gold Cup.  Cracking EW bet IMO on good ground.

FL shortening for Gold Cup just been backed at 19.5 and LI drifting out to 14.5

His participation surely now rests on the decision whether Last Instalment runs. Th way the ground is turning, you'd have to give him a good chance in the Gold Cup.

I think has a great EW chance in the Gold Cup if the ground is good.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if he won with his Cheltenham record. Very little to find with Bobs Worth.

If you had the 3rd favourite for the GC on his preferred ground, how could you not run him?

I don't think there is a chance Last Instalment will run on anything other than soft due to his "glass" legs.  They'll save him for Punchestown.

they can water during the week lads.
it aint going to be allowed to be that good.

Conspiracy Theory - I reckon the BHA have said to Fenton/O'Leary that you can run your horses but you have to pull Last Instalment to save embarrassment of having to answer against a Gold Cup winner.  Other horses are in lesser races.

Feasible????

Been reading Dick Francis mate?? nah can't have that Shock, although stranger things have known to have happened I guess!!

No. Fenton only had 4 runners to begin with and TTT has already been pulled out. So that leaves him with LI, Dunguib and the bumper horse.

The theory I had was the BHA told them to pull the horse rather than suffer the shame of being banned from the race. I think the BHA are nervy enough about the negative publicity a win could generate. Maybe even trainer/owner are doubting if they want to be part of a potentially tainted win.

Got you thinking Budd.  Seriously though I think Giggs should run both LI and FL in the Gold Cup, but if its good ground I don't think they'll risk LI.

Michael O'Leary does not strike me as the type of guy to bend to such a request. He would rather take his chance in court etc.

We'll never know, that is for certain.

Think this will be dead simple.

If the ground is considered too risky,LI wont run. If it aint he will run.
Think FL will now run in the Gold Cup whatever.

Very weak on here now for the Ryanair.  Think you're right Budd and think it's the correct decision.

i would like this to go Gold Cup and think he is the forgotten horse. Good ground he could surprise trust me

Having been 38-40 on here on Monday, FL is now 15.0 for the GC.

Good.

Yep and no money really to back him for the Ryanair. 

Keep an eye on Rathlin for the Ryanair. His form on good ground last summer was very good beating Hidden Cyclone 6 lengths "easily" off level weights.  He's had a couple of runs to get him right and if as expected FL goes Gold Cup, Rathlin will be Giggs representative here.  He's double the odds of Hidden Cyclone.  Fair EW bet IMO with doubts about many runners.  Probably only 8 or 9 will turn up.

Fair post that...let's have a look...cos i like Hidden Cyclone in this and I esp like the trainer

Dunno...the rest of his form is crap really

But good trainer. Rather him at 33s than Boston Bob at 16s anyway...

Mind you...33s is big mind you!

It's the good ground that's the key.  Rubbish on soft.  Watch the race against Hidden Cyclone.

Fook it I'll have some ew

Can see the angle here chaps but i'm not sure HC was right at that point in time. He seems better now. 33/1 prob worth a few quid ew NRNB.

it's 24/29 for GC and 10/12 for Ryan Air this morning

decision made?

Doubts about FL running at all? That's a big price for a Ryanair without Cue Card.

FL clear third in the betting on here for The Gold Cup. My Ante Post hopes it goes this way and I think he's got a good chance.

I think he has an excellent chance in Gold Cup. He'll love the quick ground it'll be on the friday and he'll love the trip. I think Bobs Worth while he'll love the better ground too could lose touch if they go too quick and he won't be able to get to them. I think Conti likes soft ground which would be common for most Dom Alcos.

Captain Chris will jump as badly right as he did last year, it's actually funny to watch him veer off out of shot and never seen again at the 3rd last in the replay on channel 4 today. That leaves the handicappers there to try make the frame but Gold Cup winners come from the top 3 in the betting in the past decade.

Would add spice to the Gold Cup and I think it would be the right race to run him in. Could see him running a blinder.

I have been with Silviniaco Conti for the Gold Cup all season but would definitely be worried about his chances on this drying ground.

Captain Chris will jump as badly right as he did last year, it's actually funny to watch him veer off out of shot and never seen again at the 3rd last in the replay on channel 4 today

I hope dickie is reading this and rides him as he should be rode on the inside rail

When Captain Chris goes right handed Dickie always has him against the rail and he jumps straight, but when he goes left handed and has horses close to his right, he just seems to jump into them. It's a shame as he's a top class horse. Even if you ignore his tendency to jump right, this is the wrong race for him. He should be running in the Ryanair.

some of us know why FL is out to 23.0 in Ryanair and into 12.5 for gold cup!!!

FL has rarely had proper good ground over 3m. If it does dry out by Friday and the taps stay off I'd say he has a rattling good chance.

Wow.  M O'Leary has just said Last Instalment might run on good ground but might not.  However, very unlikely LI and FL will both run.  Also very unlikely that he will have 2 runners in the Ryanair. Either FL or Rathlin???? 

That's put my thoughts up in the air and no decision until Thursday.

now there is no money for FL for the GC and he is still 15 for Ryan Air

starting to think he won't run at all

does anyone know????

owner said on atr earlier that they might wait for Aintree

FL will run in one or other race. It's nrnb so hardly worth trying to speculate unless you have an antepost interest. There is no chance they will wait for Aintree with FL. He will get his perfect ground at Cheltenham.

It all depends on if the ground is watered or not. There will be no rain to help them

I appreciate that cv, all I  have quoted is what oleary said...

Far too much emphasis on ridiculous team tactics imo. Gold Cup is the only race they should be thinking about with FL. The horse was used as filler for last years Festival when they had a 'better' big race option (ok in that instance I doubt he would have actually fared any better than SDC but this year is a different story). I truly believe Friday would see the real Lieutenant step up. Does MM have an opinion (is he allowed one?)

Well the operation needs to make money to fund itself so keeping it's string apart is always the soundest tactic.

Right enough CV but it is the Gold Cup - you'd think it was a no brainer really.

That's fair enough CV, after all I'm not paying the bills so cant really chip too much on the matter. It would be a real pity though for a horse that spends all its time chasing the others round when conditions are against him, to finally get his own day come around only to be cut down before he gets a chance. As with football teams, the people who make the big decisions are not always the best qualifies to do so....

I don't see why it would be different for an operation to try maximise the profit and winners at the festival. Running both horses where one needs it softer and one needs it quick. Especially when the stable are famous for entering two and running the one who prefers the ground on the day.

They know what they're doing they're a big operation.

Rathlin Goes for Ryanair for Gigginstown.

Hope First Lieutenant now goes for Gold Cup.

Fantastic news.  Win, lose or draw I'm delighted they've given Mouse the chance to run the horse at the race he's wanted to for the last 2 years.

Mouse Morris is a great trainer and a class act.

And I think he has another Gold Cup winner on his hands....

Me too, but which one??
He could well be watering after yesterdays tragic event.

Very good point budd, I shall be keen to here what Claisse says on the morning line.

Morris only has one Budd - First Lieutenant

Sorry,was thinking Gigginstown.

Indeed I was