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topshot
02 Mar 14 20:16
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Date Joined: 01 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 1,360 | Blogger: topshot's blog
A curious Festival smoke-signal relates to horses wearing some form of headgear (blinker, visor or hood) for the first time in mid-March. Last year on Day 3 of the Festival, Benefficient, Holywell and Same Difference all wore some form of first-time headgear and combined to win 50 per cent of the races on the card at cumulative odds of nearly 8,300/1. What is more remarkable is that they were the only three horses on the day to try new accessories for the first time. Flaxen Flare was another to fall into the same category during the Festival and bolted up in the Fred Winter at 25/1. There were just 14 qualifiers in this category all week in 2013 and, in addition to those four winners, Ackertac was only beaten a neck at 66/1; Rock On Ruby finished second in the Champion Hurdle; and His Excellency third in the Arkle at 80/1.

Something I found while having a mooch round other sites
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Report Ballydoyle March 2, 2014 8:19 PM GMT
Good post
Report Ramruma March 2, 2014 8:20 PM GMT
Page 4 of Paul Jones's Cheltenham preview guide.
Report Andymca March 2, 2014 8:29 PM GMT
Still a good post cheers
Report topshot March 2, 2014 8:33 PM GMT
Didn't know who wrote it Ram, like I said just picked it up somewhere and thought it was to good not to share with all my festival buddies on hereExcitedWink
Report Howdi March 2, 2014 8:45 PM GMT
No RSA winner has won without a prep run in the same calendar year!
Report Howdi March 2, 2014 8:46 PM GMT
^^^ for 50 years .....original poster I read that amzing stat.
Report Shrews March 3, 2014 9:42 PM GMT
How does the original post trend stack up over a period of time.  It might have been rubbish for the other 9 years out of 10 !
Report wondersobright March 3, 2014 9:44 PM GMT
it was diabolical
Report ReaseHeath March 3, 2014 10:24 PM GMT
no previous qualifiers (winners) since Our Vic's Ryanair win in 2008.

Though Zaynar and What A Charm won Triumph and Fred Winter respectively in first time cheekpieces (he makes a distinction between cheekpieces as opposed to visor,hood or blinkers, not least because the race card won't tell you that cheekpieces are being worn for the first time). I suppose you'd also raise less of an eyebrow at the application of cheekpieces to a lightly raced 4yo

Author cites placed horses at 66/1, 50/1, 33/1,25/1,20/1 in each of last 5 years in Novices Handicap Chase on the Tuesday and - more tenuously in my view - last three horses to wear first time headgear in Gold Cup finished in first four, Turpin Green, What A Friend and Long Run (I think only Turpin Green of those three outran his odds and fourth would not get you the place money in the case of What A Friend).

Excellent research by Paul Jones but you could easily argue it is a blip rather than a trend until further evidence supports it.

His last point, about trainers like NTD, Jonjo and Gordon Elliott being particularly skilled in application of first time headgear, is the most pertinent for me.
Report topshot March 11, 2014 5:42 PM GMT
Just your 2 winners today ....jezki and western warhorse......hope you were all on
Report chewy11 March 11, 2014 6:09 PM GMT
Creepy in the 1st tomorrow. 100 on here, goes on the ground, likes the course & most importantly wears a hood for the 1st time.
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