Cheltenham Festival
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24 Feb 14
13:05
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06 Jan 05
Interested to know the thoughts of those on here for those horses that will be taken on in special offers or above industry prices by the bookies in the next 10 days. Normally there are enhancements for a number of horses which exceed their prices on betfair. Will probably be laying a few of the short ones myself in expectation of this.
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Replies: 31
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Sdg now.
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Hurricane Fly
Sire De Grugy Big Bucks Kings Palace |
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Last year billie mountain did 1 enhancement per day the week before the festival.
I think (completely guessing) they will be offering something like: Hurricane Fly 5/1 Sire De Grugy 7/2 Big Bucks 3/1 or even 5/1 special price (depends on Annie Power) Cue Card 10/1 (if he remains in GC) |
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great minds....almost
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Yeah Hurricane Fly, TNO or Big Bucks were ones I would have thought would be natural to take on. Assume the big set pieces will be in the championship races although there are plenty of novices to take on at short prices also. Was thinking myself about the offer from William hill last year. Also assume that Paddypower might also be having there money back on the Champion Hurdle rather than the Supreme this year.
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Sire De Grugy is one for the pink for sure
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Sire De Grugy
Left handed 364821412. Wins at 4-6 in a Nov Chase and 7-2 in a handicap Right handed 22411113111111 |
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That's interesting. It's odd seeing as he seems to have a tendency to jump out to the right.
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Out to the left rather
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Paddy Power usually like to take the Supreme favourite on
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Arvika Legionnaire is a shocking price also at 5-1
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Will anyone take on Quevega on the day?
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Might well be but not right at the head of the CC race so might be less likely to be enhanced. See SDG has been easy to back the last few hours on the high street since the withdrawal of SS. This might be the one that takes the brunt of the promotional offers. Both PP and VC have publicly stated they want to take it on.
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I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Bob's Worth because I'd be taking him on at 2's.
He looked a shadow of his former self at Haydock, and although he won the Lexus, I thought he made fairly hard work of beating FL and Rubi Ball. The proximity of Rubi Ball (only 2 lengths away) would be a worry for me, as he was an exposed chaser in France before moving over here. Last Instalment dispatched FL with much more ease last time; and Cue Card and Conti are serious rivals based on their King George run. Yes, he has A1 course and festival form, but repeat Gold Cup winners are exteremly rare, and I think the opposition of Cue Card, an on song Conti and Last Instalment are better than his rivals last year. |
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id be surprised if LI is allowed to take part tbh
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I thought he was generally thought to have put in a very good performance over xmas, don't think he'll be top of many "out to get" lists myself....he frightens the layers more because on the big day to date he has always delivered....add to that the fact he is a real hard nut...a modern day staying viking flagship.
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Bobs Worth in the Lexus was impressive. Needed every inch of the three miles as if to shout 'give me an extra 2 furlongs!'
Will be a huge danger and wouldn't want to lay him. Personally, I like Conti as think he'll travel better and Bobs Worth will be under pressure a long way out and may find passing Conti one too many. If if if etc But there was nothing wrong with the Lexus run imo |
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Balydoyle..Who do you fancy in the champion chase?
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Realised about two festivals that it became a bit pointless trying to pick anything in the ante-post markets less than two weeks in advance because the value has been crushed by then and virtually anything you do find suddenly becomes an enhanced special and pushed out on here. Happened with virtually all my horses last year, this year wont be making the same mistake. If I haven't backed something now there probably isn't much point unless its in a handicap
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Timber man .....I laid SS at 2.1 and backed
Kid Cassidy ew 33/1 Benefficient 25 Al Ferof ew 20/1 NRNB Baily Green 27 |
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Irving looks an Aintree horse and The Dovecote is a terrible pointer to the Festival with 2012 4yo winner Grumeti’s 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle the only place effort to come from the last 9 runners to have gone on to Cheltenham the following month.
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Champagne Fever will be the Paddy Power offer horse this year surely.
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I doubt it Foolsgold. I reckon it will be Supreme or Ch hurdle. Most publicity from first race of meeting or first big race. Its always about publicity.
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Paddy bound to take on the fly I reckon, got a few decent ones against it. If it wins paddy will still have all the punters who he refunds staying for the week I would imagine.
A few maybe out to get big bucks, especially if AP runs in the race. The fav in the supreme usually gets taken on doesn't it or am I imagining that? Maybe just thinking of dunguib/cue card, but if there are offers on the first race you would imagine they will think they will have punters for the rest of the festival. |
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They have to do it on Tuesday so that they have time to get it back later in the week. To me the Supreme is always a difficult race to weigh up. It can look deceptively easy before the race.
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What price do people think Quevega will go off? Trying to figure out whether to take the 8/11 B365 now or wait
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Personally I'd wait at this stage but it depends how big of a player you are really. If you're not having hundreds on, there's not much material difference in backing her at 8/11 or shorter on the day. Also possible that she'll go off bigger, or that someone will offer a good promotion beforehand.
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She'll be bigger than that on the Tuesday morning I would think. Someone will probably offer evens.
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I have just taken the 8/11 with B365 for Quevega with NRNB as the only horses that can seriously push her are Mullins' Glens Melody and Annie Power. Annie Power certainly aint being aimed at this race and I cannot see him taking her on with anything and the race will cut up more than in previous years.
She may be the same or bigger on the day, she will be 10 and bookies do give value at Cheltenham, but at this stage when looking at those against her I cannot see any dangers. Ruby gave her a terrible passage last year and she still got up. Can see her being ridden differently. Mullins aint gonna keep in her training and run her if she not showing the usual sparkle at home and this years race will be weaker than any of the other races. |
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To be fair to Ruby she clipped another horse's heels and list ground as they were quickening. It was a good ride to give her time to recover and get up at the finish. That said she might get a tad closer to the pace thus year!
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Paddy will take on Irving if its soft, and HFly if it's fastish ground IMHO.
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