Cheltenham Festival
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
........
Show More
Tizzard should supplement Cue Card, because he'd win, and it'd really p*ss off his Gold Cup backers!
im on arvika ew at 16s. hopefully it can just bomb it from the front, s**t or bust. but you could now make a case for half a dozen.
Gutted on two fronts. 1. Was really looking forward to seeing SS again
2. Was very very tempted to take the 10/1 NRNB on benefficient this afternoon. That will be long gone now
2. Was very very tempted to take the 10/1 NRNB on benefficient this afternoon. That will be long gone now
Ive entered latest betting:
Moscow Flyer 4-5
Howdi 7-4
Sire De Grudy 7-2
100-1 Bar
Moscow Flyer 4-5
Howdi 7-4
Sire De Grudy 7-2
100-1 Bar
Don't fancy any of them and they've all got questions to answer.
No winner this year imo.
No winner this year imo.
PP have Sire De Grugy at 5/4 now 
That's very short considering they were taking him on in their daily special today.
Reformed market top prices (not including Betfair):
SDG 7/4
Arvika 5/1
Beneficient 6/1
Al Ferof 7/1
Captain Conan 7/1
Kid Cassidy 12/1
That's very short considering they were taking him on in their daily special today.Reformed market top prices (not including Betfair):
SDG 7/4
Arvika 5/1
Beneficient 6/1
Al Ferof 7/1
Captain Conan 7/1
Kid Cassidy 12/1
I don't agree the Tizzards will be gutted.
They knew at the time they withdrew him the doubts surrounding SS. They are after the big prize and rightly so.
Sire De Grunge is the most likely winner despite people looking at his defeat by Kid Kasdidy, but I'll take a chance on Captain Conan
They knew at the time they withdrew him the doubts surrounding SS. They are after the big prize and rightly so.
Sire De Grunge is the most likely winner despite people looking at his defeat by Kid Kasdidy, but I'll take a chance on Captain Conan
If Hinterland wins the QMum after last years form Simonsig will be rated 243 by April.
When is the supplementary stage, and what is the cost? Its idiotic he was taken out in the first place. Shocking race now.
I'd love to see Sizing win it, but I don't think it'll happen for the old boy. I still think he would have beaten Finians fairly cosily if it wasn't for that last fence fiasco a few years ago, so he deserves another one for that.
The beaten ones he finished ahead of last year are no where near as strong as the one's he'd face this year.
The beaten ones he finished ahead of last year are no where near as strong as the one's he'd face this year.
Sizing has looked a shadow of himself this year though WC. Had Benefficient backed for Ryanair, will surely go for QM now, so bad news on top of bad news really.
I think the supplementary stage is Thursday before the race judging on what happened with Mail de Bievre last year.
I think the cost was £17,500 last year so something similar I imagine.
Backed Sizing Europe NRNB before his last run, you'd have to lay him based on that performance but hopefully you never know.
Also managed to get on Al Ferof NRNB tonight before the announcement @ 16's. Can see him going close and surely this is the most likely option now
I think the cost was £17,500 last year so something similar I imagine.
Backed Sizing Europe NRNB before his last run, you'd have to lay him based on that performance but hopefully you never know.
Also managed to get on Al Ferof NRNB tonight before the announcement @ 16's. Can see him going close and surely this is the most likely option now
Sizing is 12 so can't be at his peak, but won 1st time up this season, then beat into 2nd over 3m like he always is. Last race at Xmas, put a line through it. Don't know why they made the running and had a long lead, was sure to tire. I think he's great value against this lot on a course he loves.
He was beaten too far out though at Down Royal for the trip to be the sole cause though. To my eye, he has had enough, and should be given a well deserved retirement.
It's worth another go with Sizing. I wouldn't be surprised to see him place. There's no chance of Cue Card running here; connections would have considered this eventuality before deciding to scratch him.
I put last year's awful run from Arvika down to a need to go right handed, but he had won left handed before the Arkle, so maybe the poor effort was down to his fall lto. I'm not confident about this opinion, but there's so many question marks about everything in the race that I'm struggling to pick something.
I put last year's awful run from Arvika down to a need to go right handed, but he had won left handed before the Arkle, so maybe the poor effort was down to his fall lto. I'm not confident about this opinion, but there's so many question marks about everything in the race that I'm struggling to pick something.
Captain Chris can't seem to go left handed nowadays. He probably needs further too. If the wanted to run him at the Festival though, he should have been entered in the Ryanair.
Arvika for me, think hes the best horse in the race,and took nice prices on here ages ago.
Better going the other way I know, but he ran ok left handed earlier in season,and hope a more positive ride will make the difference.
Outsider of interest is Baily Green if he runs.
That's my bets.
Better going the other way I know, but he ran ok left handed earlier in season,and hope a more positive ride will make the difference.
Outsider of interest is Baily Green if he runs.
That's my bets.
Can't believe that Sire de G is still 3.1 on here. He is surely rated as far in front of the rest as SS was in front of him so should be around evens plus a bit for the non runner possibility. The 2 outsiders that would appeal for a place are Alderwood and Wishful Thinking if they turn up on the day.
Sire de grugy is a lay here at the prices. Record is best away from this track.
Captain Conan n Arvika are shocking prices as well given that the former has had one run this year -only 3rd- and the latter is a right handed track horse.
If Hinterland was to finish in top 3 I'd have to go back to betting school
Captain Conan n Arvika are shocking prices as well given that the former has had one run this year -only 3rd- and the latter is a right handed track horse.
If Hinterland was to finish in top 3 I'd have to go back to betting school
I've taken Al Ferof ew 20/1 NRNB Kid Cassidy ew 32 Benefficient 25 after laying Sacre at 2.1 and just added Baily Green 27
Arvika Legionnaire decent horse but concern is the left handed track.
March 2010 Cheltenham 3m 4th of 19 beat 27 lengths
December 2012 Leopardstown 2m 1f 1st of 5 won by 2 lengths
March 2013 Cheltenham 2m PU of 7
December 2013 Leopardstown 2m 1f 3rd of 7 beat 1 length
So that's 41P3 over left handed with the P being pulled up in the Arkle when never travelling.
Zero appeal at current odds.
March 2010 Cheltenham 3m 4th of 19 beat 27 lengths
December 2012 Leopardstown 2m 1f 1st of 5 won by 2 lengths
March 2013 Cheltenham 2m PU of 7
December 2013 Leopardstown 2m 1f 3rd of 7 beat 1 length
So that's 41P3 over left handed with the P being pulled up in the Arkle when never travelling.
Zero appeal at current odds.
got 50 on here for Arvika, so expect to have a concern or 2.
current price would be ok if it were right handed, not gonna be a high class race so may bet away with it left handed, especially with the fav seeming not to be a Cheltenham horse.
current price would be ok if it were right handed, not gonna be a high class race so may bet away with it left handed, especially with the fav seeming not to be a Cheltenham horse.
Think it's now a layers race.
I've no idea really, think SDG is too short given his course form even though it's only two runs but most of the others have question marks about them.
If you take the view that Sizing Europe is regressing and that Sprinter was extra terrestrial last year, then Wishfull Thinking might not be the worst idea, not sure he's a certain runner though.
If you take the view that Sizing Europe is regressing and that Sprinter was extra terrestrial last year, then Wishfull Thinking might not be the worst idea, not sure he's a certain runner though.
Yeah definitely a good price at 50s in a sub standard year. Plenty of room to manouevre with that price.
The QM winner can be seen on ATRs in the next 10 minutes in racecourse warm up at Plumpton
That the one that Kid Cassidy cruised by laughing at in November?
had 46 arvika and 44 hinterland for small money a while back almost forgot about it happy with it now !
Not been anything cruising past SDG lately. Genuine favourite for The QM and I expect the current price will be the best AV'
Sizing Europe will now be aimed here according to trainer. Sadly, I don't think he has the speed for 2m any longer and would have been better placed to pick up some prize money in the Ryanair.
Don't agree Quvega. I can easily ignore Sizing Europes last run and he was clearly 2nd only to Sprinter last year. This race is average at best and his course form is brilliant. Well worth an EW bet IMO. Admittedly it doesn't say too much for the rest of the field if he beats them at 12, but far from impossible.
Would be great to see him win QM again and agree, last year if SS had been out, he would have been clear fave. I just feel this year he has not travelled with his usual ease through a race. Age catches up with all of us and some of the younger legs will, I feel, be too speedy for him. Sure he will run with credit but I find it hard to see him winning.
12 years old...too old surely. Great horse though. Underrated throughout career also I think
Sire de Grugy is a must for the pink. Good horse flat and right handed but watch the Kid Cassidy race in November and tell me if you would take 2-1?
Sire De Grugy
Left handed 364821412. Wins at 4-6 in a Nov Chase and 7-2 in a handicap
Right handed 22411113111111
Left handed 364821412. Wins at 4-6 in a Nov Chase and 7-2 in a handicap
Right handed 22411113111111
Agree Bally. Can't have SDG at Chelt. If it were soft at Sandown or Ascot I'd make him 10/11 shot.
I do not understand all the negativity surrounding SDG tbh! How can any one tell it is the track, he has only raced on it twice, and twice race lost due to a jumping error! How are we to know also the horse wasn't too well at least one of those outings?
Them form figs you put up there bally are a little concerning however, but at the same time, he has improved stones this year, maybe for going right handed, might not be, but how do we actually know? A clear round in the QMCC i can see people on here having egg on their face i really can! And this is not me being biased as have a 16s voucher, but just weighing up all the pros and cons against this opposition, opposition he has beaten fair and square in the past!
Them form figs you put up there bally are a little concerning however, but at the same time, he has improved stones this year, maybe for going right handed, might not be, but how do we actually know? A clear round in the QMCC i can see people on here having egg on their face i really can! And this is not me being biased as have a 16s voucher, but just weighing up all the pros and cons against this opposition, opposition he has beaten fair and square in the past!
Different horse on a right handed track for me. If you watch the Kid Cassidy race at Cheltenham and compare that to the right handed track efforts they are chalk n cheese.
16s is still a good bet and worth the gamble but at 2-1/9-4 its well worth a lay
16s is still a good bet and worth the gamble but at 2-1/9-4 its well worth a lay
His only defeat this year coming on the back of a bad blunder/stumble at the 4th, then a mistake at the 6th, cant afford that against a horse like Kid Cassidy imo! Also imo, his form has never been better this term. Hope this helps put my view across.
Well I would say if he cant afford that against Kid Cassidy then he wouldn't be able to afford it against 80% of this field. If it was right handed round Ascot/Sandown/Kempton the rest need not turn up. Kid Cassidy just eased past up the run in for me. McCoy always had SDG covered. However, he did receive 10 pounds that day so maybe that was a hard task.
I really like SDG, but more than needing a right handed track I think he needs genuine soft ground. When he gets that Sprinter apart he is clearly the best horse. Too short for me for QM at Cheltenham and going could easily dry up.
If it was right handed anywhere Arvika Ligeonniere would eat SDG imo 
2nd favourite and pulled up in the Arkle last year. **** me shows how bad this race is
Any chance Willie will supplement one of the Ricci novices?
Before SS pulled out there was a lot of good value especially ew. Now most to me are poor value. On a right-handed track would believe AL should/would be favourite.
Arvika and SDG appear to be different horses this year, so I wouldn't worry too much about going left handed.
Something must have been amiss with Arvika in the Arkle because he ran too bad to be true and he smashed a good quality field next time out, so I think he was beaten before the first fence in the Arkle. He is obviously not a 3 miler, so you have to discount his fourth in the Albert Bartlett as well. He doesn't jump right like Captain Chris does. If he runs a stinker in the QMCC then I'll hold my hands up, but for me he is the class hose in the race and I expect him to reverse the form with Beneficient.
Something must have been amiss with Arvika in the Arkle because he ran too bad to be true and he smashed a good quality field next time out, so I think he was beaten before the first fence in the Arkle. He is obviously not a 3 miler, so you have to discount his fourth in the Albert Bartlett as well. He doesn't jump right like Captain Chris does. If he runs a stinker in the QMCC then I'll hold my hands up, but for me he is the class hose in the race and I expect him to reverse the form with Beneficient.
SDG does deserve to be favourite though imo, as his formlines put him clear of everything else.
He's got Captain Conan held on Tingle Creek form, and he is a bit ahead of Arvika and Beneficient through Hidden Cyclone, who he brushed aside, where Arvika and Beneficient are very closely matched to Hidden Cyclone.
Sizing Europe's best days are behind him, and to be honest he only beat a bunch of second raters in last years QMCC (although I do love the old fella).
I could never have Kid Cassidy or Alderwood as Grade 1 chasers. Kid Cassidy only has 60 lengths to make up on Beneficient on their last run.
The unknown is probably Bailey Green, who has been pretty poor this season, but will improve loads for better ground, and his last run over hurdles will put him spot on.
He's got Captain Conan held on Tingle Creek form, and he is a bit ahead of Arvika and Beneficient through Hidden Cyclone, who he brushed aside, where Arvika and Beneficient are very closely matched to Hidden Cyclone.
Sizing Europe's best days are behind him, and to be honest he only beat a bunch of second raters in last years QMCC (although I do love the old fella).
I could never have Kid Cassidy or Alderwood as Grade 1 chasers. Kid Cassidy only has 60 lengths to make up on Beneficient on their last run.
The unknown is probably Bailey Green, who has been pretty poor this season, but will improve loads for better ground, and his last run over hurdles will put him spot on.
Kid Cassidy must be fresh. Easy to say he's got 60 lengths to find on Benefficient but he'll be fresh in 2 weeks and how much has he to find with the 2/1 favourite? In a normal year he'd have no chance but the top of the market are dodgy as
Took 25/1 on Baily Green on Friday, NRNB. Happy with the price in what will now be an open race.
Wouldn't touch SDG at all at around 7/4... 5/1 wouldn't even tempt me!
Wouldn't touch SDG at all at around 7/4... 5/1 wouldn't even tempt me!
That Kid Cassidy / Sire De Grugy race has to be a one off freak result though, like then Muirhead finished ahead of the Fly.
Kid Cassidy has shown nothing previously or since to show he is a G1 horse, let alone a QMCC winner. He's never ran in a G1 hurdle, and finished last in his only G1 chase.
The best he's done is win a 3 runner G2 novice hurdle, and place in a G3 chase. The step up from that to winning a QMCC is huge.
Kid Cassidy has shown nothing previously or since to show he is a G1 horse, let alone a QMCC winner. He's never ran in a G1 hurdle, and finished last in his only G1 chase.
The best he's done is win a 3 runner G2 novice hurdle, and place in a G3 chase. The step up from that to winning a QMCC is huge.
He's had a breathing op at start of this season. McCoy just picked SDG up at his leisure. The race in Ireland came too soon. I'm not sayin Kid C will win it but it puts into context the 2/1 about SDG
I know you're on at a big price mate, so good luck with it, but not one for me. I can kind of understand when you backed him at 33's and SDG was about 3's, but now Sire De Grugy is 2's and Kid Cassidy is about 12's, so one has only come in a point, and the other has more than halved?
Yes, SDG is short, but of all the runners, he has the form to back up his price this season.
Yes, SDG is short, but of all the runners, he has the form to back up his price this season.
Basically got free go's on this cos laid Sacre and the rest of em could get laid off also. Just think this fav is there for the taking. He's really not that good for a 2/1 shot
well chief on a line through special tiara SDG has loads to find with arvika, I suppose it depends which form you want to read.....
As I said, I think he is a different horse this year, and is running to a much higher level after a summer off.
SDG will win this, no doubt about it at all. Strongly feel that he has to much class for the opposition here. should be a 4/5 shot.
There are some very good reasons (mentioned above) on why he won't win etc, but looking at the potential opposition he's facing.....none of them scare me. It's more easier to pick holes in them instead as the betting suggests.
There are some very good reasons (mentioned above) on why he won't win etc, but looking at the potential opposition he's facing.....none of them scare me. It's more easier to pick holes in them instead as the betting suggests.
I'm actually quite surprised by the negativety towards SDG. Maybe it's his unfashionable connections?
I personally haven't backed him in a single, but took the PP special yesterday of Vautour and SDG at 16/1. I would lay my stake off if Vautour won, but I tend to do that with most doubles.
If you look at the odds when Sprinter was in, compared to what they are now:
SDG was 3's, now 2's
Arvika was 10's, now 5's
Beneficient was 10's, now 6's
Captain Conan was 12's, now 7's
Al Ferof was 16's, now 7's
Everything has virtually halved in price, except the horse at the top. I hope he drifts further, because if he goes back to his price that he was before Sprinter came out, then I'd say he was value; especially has this has been his target all season, unlike nearly everything else in the race.
I personally haven't backed him in a single, but took the PP special yesterday of Vautour and SDG at 16/1. I would lay my stake off if Vautour won, but I tend to do that with most doubles.
If you look at the odds when Sprinter was in, compared to what they are now:
SDG was 3's, now 2's
Arvika was 10's, now 5's
Beneficient was 10's, now 6's
Captain Conan was 12's, now 7's
Al Ferof was 16's, now 7's
Everything has virtually halved in price, except the horse at the top. I hope he drifts further, because if he goes back to his price that he was before Sprinter came out, then I'd say he was value; especially has this has been his target all season, unlike nearly everything else in the race.
as much as i tend to agree with the opinion on kid cassidy, in regards, of him having plenty to find and not contended the races you would hope for in his career, it has to be remembered how he has been campaigned...
anyone who has followed the horse like i have, will know he has spent the best part of his career with the handbrake on, to preserve a mark in which to win the grand annual...i backed the horse heavily last year and he was given a very suspect ride ridden in rear and keen as is his want, he then made a sweeping move 8 wide the whole way and how he still managed to challenge was testament only to the animals clear ability...the horse is very quirky but now his breathing has been sorted out, he can go well here, off the back of an absence at a track he has ran well on in the past
i remember synchronised winning a gold cup for the same connections and he was just a handicapper, until the handbrake was released...he may well be quirky but can certainly see him running through beaten horses and might even surprise a few with the run of the race, don't expect to see him till late
well chief you have clearly taken his last run literally but the horse does need to come off of an absence, on the other side of the coin he is a quirky character so it won't be easy and the champ will have to be at his very best to see him home
sire de grugy is a solid favorite but he has had a very hard campaign this year already and have the feeling soft ground is important to him...not so sure about the right handed as he has ran well left handed (probably prefers right handed though) just feel his ideal conditions are soft
captain conan is an interesting runner but isn't a horse to fall in love with and collapsed quicker than a cheap tent in the jewson last year...he reminds me a tad of punchestowns a few years ago just a big horse but not that athletic...i respect him but wouldn't want to take skinny odds available
alderwood i'm not sure will run here we will see
i backed arvica last year and he ran like a drain (travel? left handed i don't know?) but not sure i want to be with him
if he runs the horse i respect the most is beneficient but have a feeling they should go for the ryannair, as feel the trip will be more to his liking but he just keeps finding and is still quite unexposed at the minimum trip, that said i have a feeling it may just happen a tad quick for him if the ground wasn't soft enough but respect him and he shouldn't be underestimated
somersby is a rat and as much as he has all the ability to get involved, he always find a way of fecking it up...he has always annoyed me, although he has had some great days mostly at ascot
special tiara is quite a hard horse to fathom but good ground and a flat track appear his optimum...i can't get an angle with him
hinterland not sure what happens with him
a sporting bet on kid cassidy for me...with captain conan and beneficient very much respected as is sire de grugy if he gets soft ground but he is still a long way clear on ratings, so won't be laying him, just coupling some others
should be a good race this and an open one, even more so if sire de grugy puts a sloppy round in
anyone who has followed the horse like i have, will know he has spent the best part of his career with the handbrake on, to preserve a mark in which to win the grand annual...i backed the horse heavily last year and he was given a very suspect ride ridden in rear and keen as is his want, he then made a sweeping move 8 wide the whole way and how he still managed to challenge was testament only to the animals clear ability...the horse is very quirky but now his breathing has been sorted out, he can go well here, off the back of an absence at a track he has ran well on in the past
i remember synchronised winning a gold cup for the same connections and he was just a handicapper, until the handbrake was released...he may well be quirky but can certainly see him running through beaten horses and might even surprise a few with the run of the race, don't expect to see him till late
well chief you have clearly taken his last run literally but the horse does need to come off of an absence, on the other side of the coin he is a quirky character so it won't be easy and the champ will have to be at his very best to see him home
sire de grugy is a solid favorite but he has had a very hard campaign this year already and have the feeling soft ground is important to him...not so sure about the right handed as he has ran well left handed (probably prefers right handed though) just feel his ideal conditions are soft
captain conan is an interesting runner but isn't a horse to fall in love with and collapsed quicker than a cheap tent in the jewson last year...he reminds me a tad of punchestowns a few years ago just a big horse but not that athletic...i respect him but wouldn't want to take skinny odds available
alderwood i'm not sure will run here we will see
i backed arvica last year and he ran like a drain (travel? left handed i don't know?) but not sure i want to be with him
if he runs the horse i respect the most is beneficient but have a feeling they should go for the ryannair, as feel the trip will be more to his liking but he just keeps finding and is still quite unexposed at the minimum trip, that said i have a feeling it may just happen a tad quick for him if the ground wasn't soft enough but respect him and he shouldn't be underestimated
somersby is a rat and as much as he has all the ability to get involved, he always find a way of fecking it up...he has always annoyed me, although he has had some great days mostly at ascot
special tiara is quite a hard horse to fathom but good ground and a flat track appear his optimum...i can't get an angle with him
hinterland not sure what happens with him
a sporting bet on kid cassidy for me...with captain conan and beneficient very much respected as is sire de grugy if he gets soft ground but he is still a long way clear on ratings, so won't be laying him, just coupling some others
should be a good race this and an open one, even more so if sire de grugy puts a sloppy round in
You could be right Harry, re Kid Cassidy, but my gut feeling is, if they thought he was a proper G1 horse, they would of campaigned him accordingly. As much as JP likes a plot, he hasn't had a proper Champion Chase horse in years, so if they thought he was good enough, they would have sent him down this route long ago, rather than trying to protect his handicap mark.
He has dozens of others to choose from for the Grand Annual.
I think once he beat Sire De Grugy and went up to 156, their hand was forced, as he would have been 13lbs higher for the Grand Annual than last year; so I don't think the run behind Beneficient was anything to do with protecting him. If they wanted him fit, they could have just thrown him in a jumpers bumper like MTOY, rather than sending him all the way to Ireland to let him finish in his own time.
A lot of negatives about the entire field, and not many have G1 or even G2 course form. Sizing Europe and Al Ferof do, but at this stage in their career, can you really see them winning a QMCC. Got to go with the second season novices like SDG, AL, Ben, CC.
He has dozens of others to choose from for the Grand Annual.
I think once he beat Sire De Grugy and went up to 156, their hand was forced, as he would have been 13lbs higher for the Grand Annual than last year; so I don't think the run behind Beneficient was anything to do with protecting him. If they wanted him fit, they could have just thrown him in a jumpers bumper like MTOY, rather than sending him all the way to Ireland to let him finish in his own time.
A lot of negatives about the entire field, and not many have G1 or even G2 course form. Sizing Europe and Al Ferof do, but at this stage in their career, can you really see them winning a QMCC. Got to go with the second season novices like SDG, AL, Ben, CC.
* Sorry, forgot Beneficient's course form last year, but that was half a mile further. Strange the way their initial thought with him was to send him to the Charlie Hall, and now he's one of the leading fancies for the QMCC?
You could be right Harry, re Kid Cassidy, but my gut feeling is, if they thought he was a proper G1 horse, they would of campaigned him accordingly. As much as JP likes a plot, he hasn't had a proper Champion Chase horse in years, so if they thought he was good enough, they would have sent him down this route long ago, rather than trying to protect his handicap mark.
not at all well chief the horse is reaching his peak at the age of 8 and was rightly campaigned as a handicapper earlier in his career and also clearly struggles with his breathing and his keeness, but they knew they had to exploit his mark...the owner himself is a plotter with most of his horses that aren't quite up to grade, that is a fact hence them protecting him, plus what was the point in running nice races in better company and blowing his mark...i ask you look at the ground he had to travel in last years grand annual, it is a despicable ride
If they wanted him fit, they could have just thrown him in a jumpers bumper like MTOY, rather than sending him all the way to Ireland to let him finish in his own time.
this is what i meant about knowing the horse, he only has one run in him on the back of a break, hence him bouncing in ireland, he probably could of won a bumper like MTOY and won but that would of ruined his one run as he needs to be fresh
this horse has always been keen but appears to be settling better and if the breathing is ok he will surprise a few imo...agree though he has plenty to find but not a huge amount if you take SDG out
not at all well chief the horse is reaching his peak at the age of 8 and was rightly campaigned as a handicapper earlier in his career and also clearly struggles with his breathing and his keeness, but they knew they had to exploit his mark...the owner himself is a plotter with most of his horses that aren't quite up to grade, that is a fact hence them protecting him, plus what was the point in running nice races in better company and blowing his mark...i ask you look at the ground he had to travel in last years grand annual, it is a despicable ride
If they wanted him fit, they could have just thrown him in a jumpers bumper like MTOY, rather than sending him all the way to Ireland to let him finish in his own time.
this is what i meant about knowing the horse, he only has one run in him on the back of a break, hence him bouncing in ireland, he probably could of won a bumper like MTOY and won but that would of ruined his one run as he needs to be fresh
this horse has always been keen but appears to be settling better and if the breathing is ok he will surprise a few imo...agree though he has plenty to find but not a huge amount if you take SDG out
He's had a breathing op at start of this season. McCoy just picked SDG up at his leisure. The race in Ireland came too soon. I'm not sayin Kid C will win it but it puts into context the 2/1 about SDG
that's the point for me, even allowing for the fact that SDG was giving him 10lbs, it looked very,very comfortable - but gives hope to plenty of others, not just KC. Do agree though that most of them look too short! Struggling to fancy any of 'em. Will Alderwood even turn up? Not been sighted for ages. Thought Alf was headed for Ryanair and seems to be priced up as if reproducing his old form is a given when his recent form suggests that it is n't. Hinterland?, slaughtered by Simonsig - I know he's improved but a second season novice who was well below top class last season. Baily Green? Yes, more appealing but beaten by a sick Simonsig in a poor Arkle, imo. Almost all the form lines contradict each other and you can use the collateral to make a case for plenty of them.It's hard to deny that SDG is progressive and perhaps he's even improved some since beaten over CD in November.
No bet for me just now, disappointed we won't get to see Sprinter but pleased it will likely be a competitive race with a decent sized field.
On a slightly separate tack all the Championship races and Grade 1 novice events look very open this year so would expect to see a couple of mindboggling placepot dividends!
that's the point for me, even allowing for the fact that SDG was giving him 10lbs, it looked very,very comfortable - but gives hope to plenty of others, not just KC. Do agree though that most of them look too short! Struggling to fancy any of 'em. Will Alderwood even turn up? Not been sighted for ages. Thought Alf was headed for Ryanair and seems to be priced up as if reproducing his old form is a given when his recent form suggests that it is n't. Hinterland?, slaughtered by Simonsig - I know he's improved but a second season novice who was well below top class last season. Baily Green? Yes, more appealing but beaten by a sick Simonsig in a poor Arkle, imo. Almost all the form lines contradict each other and you can use the collateral to make a case for plenty of them.It's hard to deny that SDG is progressive and perhaps he's even improved some since beaten over CD in November.
No bet for me just now, disappointed we won't get to see Sprinter but pleased it will likely be a competitive race with a decent sized field.
On a slightly separate tack all the Championship races and Grade 1 novice events look very open this year so would expect to see a couple of mindboggling placepot dividends!
I'm afraid SDG hasn't beaten much at all - and is at his best away from Chelt. Look at how Bennefficient mopped up much of this field (and put Kid Cassidy in his place) at the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown - a course renowned as being a good Cheltenham simulator. Won at the festival last year and I really think it will again, if connections decide to go for this over the Ryanair. Lump on NRNB - nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Ladb's with all their experts reading the form of all this years races make SDG a 5-4 shot with second fav 11-2. Quite a number of posters give the horse little or no chance.(wish they were bookies) I think Laddies will need some new experts or a fair amount of humble pie will be getting consumed after the Q M. by our experts.
looks like benefficient will go ryannair judging by the betting...can only see 10 runners myself
I'd love to see Kid Cassidy win because I just think it would be an amazing story after he survived that terrible electrocution. To come back from that to be the champion chaser would be pretty great imo.
I think Special Tiara will run a good race at a price will come on for better ground. Has run well in defeat at the course. Doubts about a few. 25/1 lively outsider imo
MCCOY on the kid cassidy - he is quite realistic on his chances tbh
By AP McCoy
I have also decided to ride Kid Cassidy in the Champion Chase. With Sprinter Sacre coming out everyone now thinks they have a chance and I suspect there will be one of the biggest fields in the past 10 years. Sire De Grugy has the best form and is unquestionably the one to beat.
Kid Cassidy is the only horse to have beaten him this season and that was at Cheltenham, but we were getting 10lbs and I consider that a lot of weight. If it was only 2lbs or 3lbs you might have fancied your chances of beating him again, but I reckon we’ll have a job on our hands now.
I rode Kid Cassidy at Kempton where Nicky Henderson took 14 horses to work yesterday. I was very pleased with him. He pulled my arms out, but that’s him, he’s a very hyper horse. He is not actually that quick and if you let him go he would not go much faster. He does everything on his nerves
By AP McCoy
I have also decided to ride Kid Cassidy in the Champion Chase. With Sprinter Sacre coming out everyone now thinks they have a chance and I suspect there will be one of the biggest fields in the past 10 years. Sire De Grugy has the best form and is unquestionably the one to beat.
Kid Cassidy is the only horse to have beaten him this season and that was at Cheltenham, but we were getting 10lbs and I consider that a lot of weight. If it was only 2lbs or 3lbs you might have fancied your chances of beating him again, but I reckon we’ll have a job on our hands now.
I rode Kid Cassidy at Kempton where Nicky Henderson took 14 horses to work yesterday. I was very pleased with him. He pulled my arms out, but that’s him, he’s a very hyper horse. He is not actually that quick and if you let him go he would not go much faster. He does everything on his nerves
Why is Captain Conan a shocking price?
The likely runners according to the betfair market are (with my subjective opinion): -
Sire De Grugy - Deserves to be favourite as he has best form and has progressed throughout this season. It could be argued he hit the front too soon against Kid Cassidy, gave him 10 lbs and his jumping was very sketchy that day and yet he still almost won. He has improved a lot since then and chances are his jumping won't be as bad as it was that day but he has a long hard season to overcome and will Garry Moore be able to produce him to peak on the big day - those would be bigger concerns for me than the track itself.
Arvika Leggeonaire - All his best form is right handed and over the other side of the Irish Sea. Two unplaced efforts at Prestbury Park, I think it will be the same result regardless of any tweaks that have been put into place.
Kid Cassidy - Looks a glorified handicapper, I don't think he will fair any better than Fota Island who was a better horse. Grand Annual winners/placed horses generally don't win the Champion Chase.
Captain Conan - Course and distance winner, his 3 races over 2 miles over fences in this country read 113 (the third in the Tingle Creek when undercooked). He beat Sire De Grugy in their novice days over C & D (granted a lot of water has gone under the bridge since and SDG has improved but I always respect the market and Captain Conan was 11/10 fav that day SDG was 7/2). When they reopposed in the Tingle Creek they were 7/4 joint favourites so again the market respected Captain Conan. SDG comprehensively reversed the form but I felt Captain Conan jumped well and ran well for a long way and it was interesting to read that Henderson felt he was way below his best. He went for a gallop this week and reportedly put in a very nice piece of work. The Tingle Creek is generally the race that the winner of the Champion Chase ran in earlier in the season. It is the trial. Even Voy Por Ustedes finished a remote second in this race when he won a below par renewal back in 2007. Both Captain Conan and Sire De Grugy ran in the race earlier in the season and as mentioned above were 7/4 joint favourites. I think the form can be reversed in the Champion Chase, not because Sire De Grugy doesn't like the undulating track at Cheltenham (I don't buy that argument) but because the fences put his jumping under the upmost pressure and there is a chance Captain Conan will put in an excellent round of jumping which would put even more pressure on Sire De Grugy to put in a clear round. You have to factor in that Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record at the Cheltenham Festival, Captain Conan has had a very light campaign this season so comes into it nice and fresh and I would trust him to have the horse ready to peak otherwise he wouldn't be running. Barry Gereighty is arguably the finest jockey of a 2 mile chaser (others will claim it's Ruby Walsh) and he has an excellent record in small fields so suddenly Captain Conan has a lot going for him, especially at the current prices.
Baily Green - Thoroughly exposed 2 miler, you have to respect Mouse Morris given he is one of the best trainers at preparing and conditioning a horse to peak for the festival but his second to Simonsig overrated his ability in my opinion as Simonsig was a sick horse way below his best and still beat him.
Special Tiara - Very in and out but he is a Grade 1 Winner and looks like the type to either run a blinder or get pulled up. He is the interesting horse at a price but every man and his dog can see that.
Sizing Europe - 12 years old. Come on, if Moscow Flyer couldn't do it then as good as Sizing Europe has been, he isn't either given how much he has regressed.
Hinterland (could be re routed here)- Well held by Captain Conan but should run well.
I think Sire De Grugy will have an SP of 9/4 and I think Captain Conan will have an SP between 11/4-7/2 and my own feeling is that they will finish first and second with the current value very much in the favour of Captain Conan so I therefore strongly disagree that Captain Conan is a shocking price at 6/1-7/1 given the likely field of runners.
The likely runners according to the betfair market are (with my subjective opinion): -
Sire De Grugy - Deserves to be favourite as he has best form and has progressed throughout this season. It could be argued he hit the front too soon against Kid Cassidy, gave him 10 lbs and his jumping was very sketchy that day and yet he still almost won. He has improved a lot since then and chances are his jumping won't be as bad as it was that day but he has a long hard season to overcome and will Garry Moore be able to produce him to peak on the big day - those would be bigger concerns for me than the track itself.
Arvika Leggeonaire - All his best form is right handed and over the other side of the Irish Sea. Two unplaced efforts at Prestbury Park, I think it will be the same result regardless of any tweaks that have been put into place.
Kid Cassidy - Looks a glorified handicapper, I don't think he will fair any better than Fota Island who was a better horse. Grand Annual winners/placed horses generally don't win the Champion Chase.
Captain Conan - Course and distance winner, his 3 races over 2 miles over fences in this country read 113 (the third in the Tingle Creek when undercooked). He beat Sire De Grugy in their novice days over C & D (granted a lot of water has gone under the bridge since and SDG has improved but I always respect the market and Captain Conan was 11/10 fav that day SDG was 7/2). When they reopposed in the Tingle Creek they were 7/4 joint favourites so again the market respected Captain Conan. SDG comprehensively reversed the form but I felt Captain Conan jumped well and ran well for a long way and it was interesting to read that Henderson felt he was way below his best. He went for a gallop this week and reportedly put in a very nice piece of work. The Tingle Creek is generally the race that the winner of the Champion Chase ran in earlier in the season. It is the trial. Even Voy Por Ustedes finished a remote second in this race when he won a below par renewal back in 2007. Both Captain Conan and Sire De Grugy ran in the race earlier in the season and as mentioned above were 7/4 joint favourites. I think the form can be reversed in the Champion Chase, not because Sire De Grugy doesn't like the undulating track at Cheltenham (I don't buy that argument) but because the fences put his jumping under the upmost pressure and there is a chance Captain Conan will put in an excellent round of jumping which would put even more pressure on Sire De Grugy to put in a clear round. You have to factor in that Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record at the Cheltenham Festival, Captain Conan has had a very light campaign this season so comes into it nice and fresh and I would trust him to have the horse ready to peak otherwise he wouldn't be running. Barry Gereighty is arguably the finest jockey of a 2 mile chaser (others will claim it's Ruby Walsh) and he has an excellent record in small fields so suddenly Captain Conan has a lot going for him, especially at the current prices.
Baily Green - Thoroughly exposed 2 miler, you have to respect Mouse Morris given he is one of the best trainers at preparing and conditioning a horse to peak for the festival but his second to Simonsig overrated his ability in my opinion as Simonsig was a sick horse way below his best and still beat him.
Special Tiara - Very in and out but he is a Grade 1 Winner and looks like the type to either run a blinder or get pulled up. He is the interesting horse at a price but every man and his dog can see that.
Sizing Europe - 12 years old. Come on, if Moscow Flyer couldn't do it then as good as Sizing Europe has been, he isn't either given how much he has regressed.
Hinterland (could be re routed here)- Well held by Captain Conan but should run well.
I think Sire De Grugy will have an SP of 9/4 and I think Captain Conan will have an SP between 11/4-7/2 and my own feeling is that they will finish first and second with the current value very much in the favour of Captain Conan so I therefore strongly disagree that Captain Conan is a shocking price at 6/1-7/1 given the likely field of runners.
I missed out Somersby who is likely to run but he doesn't look to be progressing and again his form at Cheltenham is poor. Always seemed more of an Ascot type. I don't see where this supposed massive field is going to materialise from unlike AP...
Racing is all about opinions but I can only see three winners myself and will hold my hands up if I'm wrong;
Sire De Grugy - Form/progressive horse and deservedly favourite.
Captain Conan - Connections wouldn't run him unless they felt he was ready to peak, always been respected in the market in previous races and I think is the horse with the potential to improve the most.
Special Tiara - The dark horse (although fairly obvious) and could do a Newmill if on a going day to blaze a trail.
Sire De Grugy - Form/progressive horse and deservedly favourite.
Captain Conan - Connections wouldn't run him unless they felt he was ready to peak, always been respected in the market in previous races and I think is the horse with the potential to improve the most.
Special Tiara - The dark horse (although fairly obvious) and could do a Newmill if on a going day to blaze a trail.
is it me or is captain conan one of the worse value bets of the meeting at around 5.9 on here?? deplorable
just cannot get my head round it at all...have been evaluating him and just don't believe he has actually achieved much and most of his best form is with dig in the ground
when you actually weigh his form up it really doesn't amount to much at all...yes he beat an inexperienced sire de grugy(loves going right handed) on debut with the decent handicapper third intention behind...then beat hinterland whom himself was clearly after preserving his novice status at sandown till this season, then his form tied in again with third intention when scraping home in a poor grade 1 again at sandown
then we went to cheltenham where really he actually ran to his rating imo when folding quicker than a quick millets tent, yes you could argue he didn't stay but you could also argue he wasn't good enough and really that is as good as he is, this is where i am at
on we went to aintree where he achieved a rating that really wasn't deserved 158, a line was taken through changing times whom had run well at chelt previously but has never actually achieved a rating deserving of that questionable run at chelt and really for me was only ever a 145 horse...imo tap night is the key and really he is just a middling handicapper 145 at best which also weighs the form down
his return certainly showed he has trained on but also showed really, he isn't as good as his price reflects here and personally think the race was overrated by most handicappers with somersby who hit at least 2 fences hard, the horse i think most went through thus imo bringing his rating down to where i have him, which is about 157/8+
anyway don't mean to knock anyones bets but had to get this off my chest but it stinks at the odds on offer, on ground not ideal, if he wins i will be gutted to be so wrong and it will apologies all round for making such a howler and really will be pulling stumps time on trying to race read jumpers...i won't be wrong though, as he surely isn't good enough to win this on all known form
just cannot get my head round it at all...have been evaluating him and just don't believe he has actually achieved much and most of his best form is with dig in the ground
when you actually weigh his form up it really doesn't amount to much at all...yes he beat an inexperienced sire de grugy(loves going right handed) on debut with the decent handicapper third intention behind...then beat hinterland whom himself was clearly after preserving his novice status at sandown till this season, then his form tied in again with third intention when scraping home in a poor grade 1 again at sandown
then we went to cheltenham where really he actually ran to his rating imo when folding quicker than a quick millets tent, yes you could argue he didn't stay but you could also argue he wasn't good enough and really that is as good as he is, this is where i am at
on we went to aintree where he achieved a rating that really wasn't deserved 158, a line was taken through changing times whom had run well at chelt previously but has never actually achieved a rating deserving of that questionable run at chelt and really for me was only ever a 145 horse...imo tap night is the key and really he is just a middling handicapper 145 at best which also weighs the form down
his return certainly showed he has trained on but also showed really, he isn't as good as his price reflects here and personally think the race was overrated by most handicappers with somersby who hit at least 2 fences hard, the horse i think most went through thus imo bringing his rating down to where i have him, which is about 157/8+
anyway don't mean to knock anyones bets but had to get this off my chest but it stinks at the odds on offer, on ground not ideal, if he wins i will be gutted to be so wrong and it will apologies all round for making such a howler and really will be pulling stumps time on trying to race read jumpers...i won't be wrong though, as he surely isn't good enough to win this on all known form
think he's still living on his hyped up novice season when he was getting compared to Sprinter Sacre back at home. At best I can see him running to a mid 160's mark but thats being generous, at the prices it has to be Sizing Europe each way. even at his old age I can see him putting up a high 160s performance and making a place. He can do a Well Chief and place imo.
I've taken the view that 16/1 EW coming 2nd or 3rd is like a 2/1 winner, personally think this is a much healthier bet than backing the fav to win at 9/4 not to mention if Sizing Europe was to do the unthinkable and win.
I've taken the view that 16/1 EW coming 2nd or 3rd is like a 2/1 winner, personally think this is a much healthier bet than backing the fav to win at 9/4 not to mention if Sizing Europe was to do the unthinkable and win.
I have backed CC but i can see where you are coming from Harry.
He has won weak grade 1s and this race is a weak grade 1.
He has won weak grade 1s and this race is a weak grade 1.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539