Paul Nicholls 'Minding' Saphir Du Rheu

He quite clearly has no love for the sport

The owner has 3 others in the race. What's the point in running them all?

With this horse I am struggling to see the downside of running. He is the improver. Why even bother with the entry in the first place if the horse had no chance of earning his place in the line up? If he were a confirmed runner there is a fair chance he would go off second favourite of the owner's horses. You could ask if Big Bucks is that good why run anything else?

I'd say this is quite different from the champion hurdle quandary with Mullins. Has he ever run over 3 miles? That would be a factor. Even more of a factor is the fact that the horse is a five year old and the world hurdle is a brutal race to throw a horse of that age into. Can anybody remember the last five year old to win it or how many have tried and failed? I suspect the stats aren't good even for very experienced five year olds let alone one with so few miles on the clock.

5yo has never won the World Hurdle

Fully accept it is different to Un De Sceaux. That wasn't exactly the point I was making. I was querying how Nicholls was 'minding' the horse which is the excuse for not running. Yet he is prepared to run the horse four times in a relatively short space of time and according to the quotes he is prepared for the horse to run in the World Hurdle if something goes wrong with the others. As for being a 5yo he was always going to be that age when the entry was made. He has far more experience and arguably better form than a horse like More Of That and he also shapes like a horse who will improve over the longer trip. He was strongest at the end of both the races at Sandown and Kempton. I suspect he would appreciate being produced off a strong pace so he is almost certainly better than the bare form of his last run. How many 5yo's have actually run in the World Hurdle?

I don't know but I know a man who says none have ever won it. I'd take issue with your comment about More Of That's form as would the official handicapper. I do agree with your point though. If it's too soon it's too soon irrespective of what else you personally as a trainer have in the race.

I've just had a look and counted eight from the 90's onwards which suggests to me that trainers are wary of running them in the race for the reason I gave. The best finishing position I could see was third but there have been a few of those well fancied.

Too hard a slog and has had a fair few runs...Nicholls is grooming him for chasing

PFN ran Wonderful Charm in it last year who was a 5yo and he was well beaten. I think he is doing the right thing tbh, the horse has already won a couple of nice handicaps this season so there is no need to thrust him into the deep end until next season.

Wonderful Charm had a different profile. He hadn't run since October. Running in the race doesn't seem to have wrecked his chasing career does it? He has also been dropped in trip. 

I would agree there would be no point running if the horse was clearly not good enough. In this case the horse is improving at a rate of knots. He could find another 7-10lbs just for the step up in distance. I expect connections have no accurate idea where he is relative to the others. You would think Celestial Halo needs to find about 20lbs on Haydock just to figure.

If on the day he isn't good enough you can 'mind' the horse by pulling him up.

Saphir du rheu is also not good enough for the world hurdle. This will be one of the main reasons he isn't running.

Very hard to pin down an improving horse. I would say a rating of 165 (with further improvement quite possible) puts him right in the mix. It is the likes of Celestial Halo who suddenly need to find 20lbs improvement.

A lot less than that dd. Big Bucks is now rated 170 and CH is 161. Lets not forget CH was 2nd last year, too. There is no standout horse in the race this year. Maybe PFN is not running SDR not just because of his age but because he believes/knows he has the winner, Big Bucks, CH, or Zarkandar, who looks particularly interesting.

I would n't be taking too much notice of Celestial Halo's run last Saturday personally.

Desperate ground, horse missed three weeks work with foot infection, not given a hard time when clear he was n't going to feature in the finish.

Might as well have taken him for a racecourse gallop as run him there. Just my opinion.

^^^^^^^ I agree^^^^^^

how much does zark need to improve? and do folk think that the step up will bring about any improvement? still only 7 yrs old

His OR is 168? So not much, if at all. And lets remember Zarkandar is a triumphy hurdle winner, just like Celestial Halo is who placed 2nd last year. Every reason to think 3m could bring about improvement.

that was my reasoning when I took the 16-1 a while back, he has kind of gone under the radar with so much talk of AP and of course the legend BB

Beat at 2/5 that tells you should be nowhere near the world hurdle this year

Wasn't at his best today but wonder if he's much more than a decent handicapper. Could be better over fences I guess.

How did PFN end up with 4 or 5 world hurdle candidates anyway?

I'm just looking back at a preview article from PFN back in September on The Guardian website, he said both Salubrious and Saphir would be going chasing this season, but were so well handicapped over hurdles he'd give them one more run over hurdles.

Minding? Big mistake in running the horse today. Clearly it was too soon too soon to run the horse after a hard race last time. Only a complete fool would think he gave his running today.

certainly didnt  run to form.