Cheltenham Festival
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I've had Shutthefrontdoor in mind for this for some time. He beat the RSA-bound and now 147-rated Sam Winner by two and a half lengths in November, giving him 5 lbs. However, he disappointed in his only run since finishing last of four in a Cheltenham novice chase (which Sam Winner won). He has been given a mar of 146 which I think gives him a big chance. He was sent off 6/1 for the Pertemps Final last year and ran well in fourth, failing by three lengths to give stable mate Holywell 4 lbs. Holywell himself would have a chance in this depending on the mark given to him, and if he's rated in the low 140's he'll surely be popular.
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Has been nibbled in from 16/1 to 12/1 over the last week or so but surely there are better avenues to explore than guessing what McManus is up to. The only sure thing is that he will be entered in everything.
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He is available @14/1 to win any race at the Festival with Billy Mountain - obviously you don't have the NRNB concession but
would appear to be a reasonable price. I personally think it'll be the National Hunt Chase. |
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Yeah that's a fair price tbf. It'd be value wherever he ran bar RSA. But he's one I think is best waiting on.
Knowing connections they might be thinking Irish National and aiming low key for his next run and avoid Cheltenham. Would need nrnb concession before backing at this stage tbh. |
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Jonjo has taken the 4 miler 5 times, Recent wind op and being waited with, As stated his form stacks up nicely and with Mendip Express a doubtful starter he rates a fair bet imo.
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really like this horse, i hope he goes for the 4 miler
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Bit of money around for the four miler today.
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Bit of money for the Festival Chase previously, bit of money for the National Hunt Chase now. Is it any wonder the likes of Mike Dillon cosy up to likes of McManus. Personally, I don't think it stays beyond three miles but he and the inner circle (who basically couldn't a monkeys about your average punter) will already be well aware whether it is going to run over 3 or 4 miles.
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In all fairness what Maccy does is his own business as he's bound to be mob handed throughout but what i cant stomach is the general cloak and dagger approach by some of his trainers.I appreciate they look after him and rightly so but to twenty quid punters who just want a poke for their money these money riddled monopoly merchants put them away more often then not.(not JPM by the way)
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How can you blame the trainers when it is obviously McManus who is actually calling the tune? He has bought himself a foot in the door of any number of stables. The likes of Jonjo have been carefully selected as they tell joe punter absolutely nothing. It is somewhat ironic that so many punters used to idolise Jonjo as a jockey and now he treats the same with complete disdain.
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For punting purposes I quite like JP because the slow old boats he enters in every race ensure there is value elsewhere, since his are often underpriced on the off-chance. If you look at some of the prices when he does win, it is clear there is more luck than plotting involved. Either they are complete rags or well-fancied types whose form is in the book (and not always in handicaps).
Back on topic, Shutthefrontdoor: there are three ways to look at his form and explain why he has lost every time he has run at Cheltenham. 1) He does not act on the course. 2) He was not up to the class of those races. 3) It is a plot. Since he will be entered for everything barring the Mares' Hurdle, my cunning plan is not to think about it till at least the five-days decs. |