Cheltenham Festival
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Think it's about time for the annual 'official going' thread.
In 2012 3 weeks meeting I declared this:
unclepuncle
23 Feb 12 22:46
Given all that I would actually suggest (and have backed accordingly) that the 7/2 with PP on good going is the best bet I've seen in years.
Official Going for 1st race was 'Good'.
In 2013 4 weeks before the meeting I declared this:
unclepuncle
10 Feb 13 14:06
Whatever happens I can't believe it will be good like last year (advised on here as the best bet I'd ever seen @ 7/2 3 weeks before the meeting). This year I've lumped on soft @ 7/2
Official going for 1st race was 'Soft (good-to-soft in places)'.
This year it seems incredible that the bookies are still pricing up good-to-soft as the long odds on favourite. Obviously it's too early to have any idea what the forecast is for the fortnight before Cheltenham, who knows we may get a heat wave.
Last year it was fairly dry, though cold, in the week or two leading into the festival after a fairly wet winter and yet it was still given as soft, good-to-soft in places. This winter has been much wetter for much longer (going must be heavy / waterlogged right now) and so as things stand 'Soft' at 9/4 and 2/1 with the bookies has to be the bet (I'd suggest a lay of good-to-soft at 1/2 instead but there isn't any liquidity on here).
Given the forecast for the next couple of weeks remains unsettled I'd expect soft to be trading much lower come the start of March so a chance to lay off even if the forecast nearer the festival is looking very dry.
In 2012 3 weeks meeting I declared this:
unclepuncle
23 Feb 12 22:46
Given all that I would actually suggest (and have backed accordingly) that the 7/2 with PP on good going is the best bet I've seen in years.
Official Going for 1st race was 'Good'.
In 2013 4 weeks before the meeting I declared this:
unclepuncle
10 Feb 13 14:06
Whatever happens I can't believe it will be good like last year (advised on here as the best bet I'd ever seen @ 7/2 3 weeks before the meeting). This year I've lumped on soft @ 7/2
Official going for 1st race was 'Soft (good-to-soft in places)'.
This year it seems incredible that the bookies are still pricing up good-to-soft as the long odds on favourite. Obviously it's too early to have any idea what the forecast is for the fortnight before Cheltenham, who knows we may get a heat wave.
Last year it was fairly dry, though cold, in the week or two leading into the festival after a fairly wet winter and yet it was still given as soft, good-to-soft in places. This winter has been much wetter for much longer (going must be heavy / waterlogged right now) and so as things stand 'Soft' at 9/4 and 2/1 with the bookies has to be the bet (I'd suggest a lay of good-to-soft at 1/2 instead but there isn't any liquidity on here).
Given the forecast for the next couple of weeks remains unsettled I'd expect soft to be trading much lower come the start of March so a chance to lay off even if the forecast nearer the festival is looking very dry.
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It's getting to the stage where you must think it will be Soft ground but 9/4 doesn't really appeal. That said I rearely bet in these markets so wouldn't really know. But Cheltenham does tend to have it's own micro-climate and can take a serious amount of rainfall.
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