Cheltenham Festival
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06 Feb 14
00:00
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Date Joined:
09 Jul 05
How does this happen?
If it runs and wins over the 2m 5f in soft going - as will be expected, how does it not go for the Sun Alliance?
If it runs and disappoints - Surely misses Cheltenham (with it being just round the corner) if it disappoints and they blame the ground, then why run it in the muck?
All roads lead to this not running in the Arkle, I'm 99% of the time a backer but on this occasion may be a layer pre race for the Arkle...
Thoughts?
If it runs and wins over the 2m 5f in soft going - as will be expected, how does it not go for the Sun Alliance?
If it runs and disappoints - Surely misses Cheltenham (with it being just round the corner) if it disappoints and they blame the ground, then why run it in the muck?
All roads lead to this not running in the Arkle, I'm 99% of the time a backer but on this occasion may be a layer pre race for the Arkle...
Thoughts?
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Replies: 33
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really fancy Don Cossack for the PJM
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welcome back judo
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It would be the weirdest Arkle prep ever. Though if he were to get beat and say he finishes 2nd then I don't see why the Arkle would be ruled out.
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Not weird at all, more like the norm. Arkle history is littered with winners who had run over 2m4f or 2m5f in the build up to the race.
Captain Chris Sizing Europe Forpadydeplasterer (Moriarty) Tidal Bay My Way De Solzen That's five of the last seven winners, with only Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig not having chased over 2m4f/2m5f in their novice chase season first (and Simonsig went over 2m3f on heavy at Ascot first). It is rare for an all-speed 2-miler to win the Arkle. Something that can stay further and has the engine to see it out up the hill normally wins. Simonsig had won a 3m ptp and the 2m5f Neptune too. Sprinter Sacre a very rare case. |
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If a chaser is good enough the distance is immaterial - he will of course be best at one particular distance. In 1966 Flyingbolt in the space of less than 3 months
won the Thyestes chase by a distance over 3m 1f carrying top weight and giving the runner-up 25 lbs then won the champion chase (Cheltenham) by 15 lengths in a canter 24 hours later he turned out for the champion hurdle and finished 3rd and but for a mistake four out probably would have won - the winner of that race was Salmon Spray and if I dont mention him his namesake will be upset! next he won the Irish grand national carrying 12st 7lbs giving the runner up and the third 40lbs and 42lbs respectively. There were never any excuses about ground or anything like that. In those days the horses were real horses. |
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Looks like the bookmakers agree with you roger. CF has been backed this morning and now a 3/1 chance with Ladcrooks.
Fair point Arkle though fair to point out that in Flyingbolt's days, NH horses were more stoutly bred with far less emphasis on flat speed influence. They often had to race not only on bottomless ground but also road like surfaces and needed the make and shape to deal with it. |
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It is weird for them to run in the PJ Moriarty Roger. I'm not talking about the trip just the history of that race.
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Even if Forpady did it.
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Hope he gets him settled and he finishes off the race ok.
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Arkle
I'm not sure I agree with your comment about horses being horses in those days. Horses were generally poorly trained, by people who would be laughed at today and ridden by jockeys who would be lambasted on here. There is a great strength in depth today partly because of improvements in all spheres. Unless you happen to think that the "two greatest ever jumps horses" who are clear by an absolute mile just happen to have been in training at the same time in the same stable? |
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Eeternal,
Couldn't agree more. Does make me wonder why you keep harping on about Timeform's Annie Power rating given they continually try to support the idea that these two wonder horses, if transported in a time machine, would carry all modern horses before them in the gold cup and finish 20 lengths clear? |
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judorick 06 Feb 14 01:50 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 21,303 | Blogger: judorick's blog really fancy Don Cossack for the PJM Good to hear from you again Judo. Bigup |
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Ballycaset versus Carlingford lough and the Don,no Champagne fever
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Ballycasey
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Has any reason been given for CFs no show or is just a case of not running them against each other?
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no official reason but I suspect there gonna find a 2 mile nov chase for cf within the next couple of weeks maybe navan or naas in prep for the arkle. that makes more sense than runnin over 2 mile 5 furlungs on bottomless ground.
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Thanks tony
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PROB BE THE FLYING BOLT FOR C/F AT NAVAN 15th FEB
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"I decided to run Ballycasey instead. Champagne Fever is just not right this weekend, but he's fine." Mullins.
Can only be one or the other surely |
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B0llocks. Some Tikket going for the Flyingbolt and was hoping we would miss most of the big guns
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Chance he might go straight to Cheltenham acording to Mullins. I'll not be hugely surprised if this proves to be the case, as the horse doesn't appear to stand a lot of racing.
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I saw that mullie interview and I kinda got the vibe that the arkle is still not for definite, nothing concrete like, but just his choice of words like he could go to the arkle instead of he is going, just my opinion, but as usual the punters will be last to know....
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as usual the punters will be last to know.
Of course they will, but that is true of any runner in any race. The problem here is not that we are the last to know but that we will not know until the five day stage the week before. That's what happens when Ireland's most indecisive trainer controls 90 per cent of the country's top horses. In the novice chases, Mullins has six Arkle entries, eight in the JLT and seven in the RSA. In the novice hurdles, it is even worse: 22 in the Supreme; 19 in the Neptune; and 16 for the Albert Bartlett. So of course Mullins is forever shuffling the pack as he tries to fit the horses and satisfy the big owners, some of whom also have runners trained elsewhere that must be factored into the equation. |
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navan
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he looks arkle material is not the same as saying he is arkle material, just by the smirks he gave and the body language, im not entirely convinced
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who ****n cares
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that is the closest you will get mullins to commit to a target for a novice
up to you if you wanna play mind games with yourself and bet accordingly |
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lol im playing no mind games with myself I am just, expressing an observation I made, maybe you think im playing mind games with you as you have a CF arkle bet, but im not.....
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I don't think that at all
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no worries then mate
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Shortened quite a bit for the JLT today?? Any thoughts he could be destined for that race??
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This is Willie. Anything is possible. Unless the ground dries out though it will be the Arkle, as FY probably won't travel. There is no real sign of improvement in the weather before the end of the month....just rain and showers instead of pissing down. It's rained on and off all day today in Cheltenham.
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