Cheltenham Festival
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we have the usual threads for what is good value for the festival who will win etc, but how about highlighting a few bad value horses who for whatever reasons are a bit on the short side ,could be with powerfull stables or just plain overhyped and underpriced 5-6 weeks from the festival . a fair few knocking about I imagine .
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Big Bucks
Sprinter Sacre Ballycasey |
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....and no I won't be laying them (I'm a backer) and can't give you a price at which they would be 'value' since 'value' is subjective and your idea of value might be a 1/10 shot.
I have been opposing all three of these selections in the ante-post markets however. |
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....and no I won't be laying them (I'm a backer) and can't give you a price at which they would be 'value' since 'value' is subjective and your idea of value might be a 1/10 shot.
I have been opposing all three of these selections in the ante-post markets however. |
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Sometimes even twice
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yep rog agree with those fair chance sprinter wont make the gig , of the 3 ballycasey is a bit too big a price to lay for me as it will tie up funds, if he gets there will be a lot shorter nearer the day ,but a fair bit to prove ! sprinter sacre looks the best for lay purposes as his price is short and wont hit the bank too hard if he wins , but also a fair chance he wont turn up !
big bucks also has it to prove travelled well and looked all over the winner last time approaching the last but fact is he was beaten and the world hurdle will be tougher ! |
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I'll probably get slated for this, but I think The New One is very poor value at around 100/30. Three times now he's been beaten in close finishes, including last time out by MTOY, who is almost two points bigger in the betting. He's never ran in a race that will live up to the pace that they'll be going at the Champion Hurdle (it may not be flat out from the start if UDS doesn't run, but it'll be quicker than he's encountered) and I think the extra pace could test his suspect jumping. His Neptune win was run at a farcical pace and he just outpaced slower horses at the end.
Rock on Ruby is too short on what he's achieved so far over fences, especially as it looks as though they won't be getting another run into him before the Festival. As has already been stated, Big Bucks and Sprinter Sacre are both short enough. |
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no slating here ! all about opinions ac, have not really looked at this horse in depth yet but faugheen strikes me as a shortish price for the Neptune and likely to go a good deal shorter given his profile and connections , will have a good look at it in depth a bit later .
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Sire De Grugy wins this argument by a distance.
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yep duffy good one has this horse ever won a decent race going left handed ?
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I'm just totally against him, I am a captain conan fan but even so, I don't buy into one bit to the SDG love in that has come about this year and I can't help but find fault with the horse even in his 3 big wins this year.
He won well enough in the tingle creek but he picked up the pieces after CC blew up who was travelling like the best horse turning in, he would have been entitled to need the race as many from the stable were at the time, he's since had another hold up. Then at Kempton, SS pulling up left nothing to beat. Then at Ascot, the front to cut each others throats in bad ground with HC barely jumping a fence the whole way round, Somersby fell down before the race started and SDG sat out the back and picked up the pieces when the race fell apart. Add to that he has a big question mark against him going left handed and 9/4 is poor. Only an opinion though  |
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Any horse that lacks the requisite experience or might not make the gig if the ground is very slow - Ballycasey (and I've backed the wretched thing!), West Wizard and Rock on Ruby spring to mind.
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rock on ruby for lack of experience over the larger obstacles is deff high on list,big bucks has it all to do imo an isn't getting any younger
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Champagne Fever and Ballycasey looks the worst current ''value'' prices imo.
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Sire de Grugy for me too.
I mean Kid Cassidy, come on! |
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When I said left handed, I meant cheltenham
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Ballycasey
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The new one
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The New One- always a good excuse when he gets beat
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Has TNO been beat. Was he not mad favourite all over the summer. Surely at those prices he must be unbeaten or is he a bookies dream.
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