Cheltenham Festival

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02 Feb 14 19:04
Date Joined: 10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 723 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
The more I look at the Henderson, Jonjo, Hobbs, Nicholls, T-D etc horses, and owners, and compare them to what the Irish are assembling - I cant see anything but a completely one-sided rout this year.
if you counted Jonjo and his JPM horses in the Irish equation too, I think they could win nearly 20 races this season.

I think the domination is particularly pronounced over hurdles, where the Brits seem completely outnumbered, and maybe outclassed.

There racing is less interrupted, and they seem more keen to run on soft ground than the British trainers, which means the Irish horses have the run-up-to-the- festival races they need, at the time they need, and the home team don't.

Looking through the odds now on the hurdles races to mop up my chosen Irish candidates in singles and accas.
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Report Cash Is King February 2, 2014 8:42 PM GMT
Couldn't agree more. Rich Ricci could end up with 4-6 winners and he's only 1 owner - admittedly a significant one - with horses trained by Willie Mullins!
Report jasey February 2, 2014 9:08 PM GMT
Your overhyping the overhyped
Report bluebirdfan February 2, 2014 9:11 PM GMT
There's only really the Gold Cup where I strongly expect to see an English winner
Report jasey February 2, 2014 9:20 PM GMT
Fingers will be burned backing Mullins shorties.
Boston Bob was the best thing since sliced bread.
Last year it was Ponte Alexandre.
Sick to death hearing about Mullins.
Quevega is more a less a penalty kick and Annie Power looks good and thats it.
Report alleged22 February 2, 2014 9:28 PM GMT
on atr chapman was grilling ricci, and when he popped the question about his festival banker ricci replied "susannha will be champion owner"
Report gutfeeling February 2, 2014 9:45 PM GMT
See it completely the other way myself.
Best of luck for March.
Report gutfeeling February 2, 2014 9:46 PM GMT
Nice to miss out the Pipe yard from your English yards summary also.
Report Cash Is King February 2, 2014 11:52 PM GMT
Gutfeeling - David Pipe trains the occasional winner of a Festival handicap. Not a significsnt omission!
Report Cork Langer February 3, 2014 12:04 AM GMT
Be a pleasant surprise if you are correct, don't see it happening myself though.
Report ReaseHeath February 3, 2014 10:47 AM GMT
I expect Pipe to have a good Festival - provided the stable form is OK going in, not convinced they've been in great form all season generally.

He has new owners (Professor Tisdall) and I read somewhere that Mullins was the underbidder for one of his novices (Red Sherlock possibly?)

Not my sort of bet but an ew treble on The Liquidator, Red Sherlock and King's Palace in the three novice hurdles could be extremely lucrative.

He also has some potentially well handicapped horses who have n't been overraced (Dell Arca, Swing Bowler).

The re-emergence of the Pipe stable could be a major festival story, imo.

Mullins will inevitably have a great week, of course, but a lot will be overbet and it's worth remembering that a fair few of them will have to run in the race.
Report ReaseHeath February 3, 2014 10:48 AM GMT
^ run in the same race
Report rogerthebutler February 3, 2014 11:15 AM GMT
I get the impression that the number of Irish winners matters more to the Irish

Couldn't give a to$$ if they're Irish, British or from Vanuatu myself, as long as I've backed them.
Report call it a day February 3, 2014 5:13 PM GMT
The Mullins horses have really been terrorising the British over here this year, haven't they? If his current form over here is repeated at the Festival there isn't too much to worry about....
Report Arklearkle February 3, 2014 5:38 PM GMT
I wish you luck Call It if you believe WM has sent his better ones to UK this season - apart from Our Annie
Report gutfeeling February 3, 2014 5:41 PM GMT
5 wins from 21 starts in the UK this season,3 of those wins were Annie Power.
So we remove her and it's 2 wins from 18 starts spread across 17 runners(Glens Melody/Gitane Du Burlais his only other winners).
Report dj876 February 3, 2014 5:52 PM GMT
LaughQuevega can't get near Glens Melody sure!
Rathvinden is laughing at Faugheen and Gitane de Berlais is lapping Ivan GroznyCrazy

60% with the Germans is backing against a virus!
Report deepingfox February 3, 2014 9:09 PM GMT
Havent missed Pipe out of my reckoning, got 16/1 on Kings Palace for the Albert Bartlett.

I tend to look at his Handicap Hurdlers in the Cheltenham Winter Meetings, as well, and then try and pick out those that have had their ratings saved for the Festival, but thats come unstuck with two or three market gambles failing in recent years.

He may have more ammo this time, especially like DEL ARCA, maybe the Betfair Hurdle winner this week.

Still would rather have the 6/4 the Irish trainers having 11 or more winners than taking the opposite view, regardless of the handful of UK runners so far from Ireland this season.
Report wellchief February 3, 2014 9:25 PM GMT
I would say Mullins has the same strength in depth this year, as he does every other year; I'd just say that this year the English don't look as strong as they normally do.

No short price Henderson one for the Supreme / Neptune; Nicholls is the King of Chasers, and he doesn't really have anything jumping off the page, apart from Conti....

There are some races, like the Jewson, Gold Cup, QMCC, World Hurdle that I think the English have a much stronger hand though.
Report Patented February 3, 2014 9:32 PM GMT
Mullins will have 6 or 7 winners wait and see, bar Annie power he's sent the average ones to England. He will own Cheltenham this year
Report Tory February 3, 2014 9:45 PM GMT
You got to think the ones he's been sending over for the novices are purely sighters for the better ones at home
Report gutfeeling February 3, 2014 11:33 PM GMT
dj my post was merely pointing out he has hardly been terrorising the UK scene as suggested and nothing to do with those horses respective chances of success in March/April.
Report Patented February 4, 2014 9:39 AM GMT
Bang on Tory
Report gutfeeling February 5, 2014 1:09 AM GMT
Report tomdeane February 5, 2014 10:19 AM GMT
Still though, as has been mentioned already on this thread, there are always a couple of his that go off at ludicrously short prices on the form they have actually shown AND then get beaten.

It's dangerous to assume that because the British trainers don't seem to have unearthed superstar novices this season that they aren't lurking in their yards avoiding the weather. It's not really been all that conducive to speedy horses with such shocking weather this season. It wouldn't be a surprise to me to see some unheralded 20-1 pokes dot up on better ground in March (assuming we get that).

Also, the OP mentioned that he thought the Brits would only supply the Gold Cup winner. By my reckoning they have two very real candidates for the Champion Hurdle, the favourite for the World Hurdle (who goes for his fifth success in the race) and two in the Champion Chase that are currently best-priced 4-5 and 11-4 chances.
Report call it a day February 5, 2014 3:11 PM GMT
Are you suggesting that Mullins will be responsible for all the Irish winners? Can't see too many past half a dozen in total....
Report jasey February 5, 2014 4:51 PM GMT
Nor me apart from Quevega his three best hopes may be in the same race
Report gutfeeling February 5, 2014 9:56 PM GMT
I love that Willie runs horses in the UK just to see how his better horses will get on, I can Imagine the phonecall now.

Willie-Hi Generic Owner 1
GO1- Hi Willie, How we doing ?
Willie- Grand, Grand..Listen i've entered your horse up over in England next week.
GO1-Ah that sounds good, So we been working well ?
Willie-Ah for sure ya horse has been doing some good pieces of work.
GO1-So we have a chance of landing a fair prize then ?
Willie No nothing like that, We are just going to see how your horse runs so i know how my big owners horses stand for March.
GO1- Ah..So you're taking my horse to the UK for a run where if it loses it's just a sighter for your main patron ?
Willie-That's correct, You ok with that ?
GO1-Err yeah Willie whatever you say i mean i pay the bills but you know what's right for Ricci.
Willie-Glad your on board with the plan, Oh you'll have to pay the entrance fee, Transportation Costs..Plus you'll have to pay the jockey and of course the lads for the overnight plus the 2 days they'll be away.
GO1-Yeah sounds fair Willie, Just the one question.
Willie-Go on..
GO1- So you think by running my horse against horses on different ground at different courses against different opposition will give you a insight into what your other horses will face when they line up in the toughest race of their career with a whole host of cherry ripe horses running faster than they ever will have done before in their lives..And i'm paying for this ? Even though you could find my horse a nice race in Ireland when the prize money is better and i'd not have to pay a fraction of the costs on top of my usual monthly fees ?
Willie- Correct.
GO1= Sounds like a grand plan Im in.
Report Patented February 5, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
I believe Willie will have at least 5 winners in march
Report Patented February 5, 2014 11:07 PM GMT
Gutfeeling. 95% of the time Willie calls the shots on where and when the horses in his care run. Its as simple as that. HE calls the shots. Owners respect his choices and are happy to have the great man training his horses and running the show
Report jasey February 5, 2014 11:12 PM GMT
Ha it was 6 or 7 on an earlier post.
Can you name them please just so i don't lay any.
Any chance of Paddy or Fred paying out before they run
Report Patented February 5, 2014 11:50 PM GMT
Cud easily have 6 or 7. But I'm mad about 5 of his runners that are hugely expected to win. I have backed them for a long time now and all is going to plan. If all u have to offer is 'you said 6 or 7 earlier' go play on Facebook or something jasey, this thread isn't for u.
Report L'Escargot February 6, 2014 12:02 AM GMT
gutfeeling 100% correct and verdict delivered with good humour
patented - have you ever owned a racehorse?
Report Patented February 6, 2014 12:07 AM GMT
I cud tell u I've 5 in training, I cud tell you I've had Cheltenham winners, I cud tell u anything I want, wats your point l'escargot??
Report Patented February 6, 2014 12:08 AM GMT
I cud tell u I've 5 in training, I cud tell you I've had Cheltenham winners, I cud tell u anything I want, wats your point l'escargot??
Report gutfeeling February 6, 2014 1:00 AM GMT
I'd be very surprised if anyone was dumb enough to push €40/50,000 a year in Willies direction just so he could use their stock as a pawn in his game of chance (Not including the cost of the horse itself) Just so they could say "Willie trains my horse"
Difference between believing the Irish will have a good Festival and believing people are willing to let their hard earned get pissed away so he has a better inkling of how good the opposition are. Pretty sure he's a fair judge of not only the form book but also of what he see's on track to gauge a horses ability.
Still each to their own beliefs.Good luck with your bets for March.
Report Patented February 6, 2014 1:21 AM GMT
The way ur describing it is way off the mark (tongue in cheek as it was), the horses that travel have live chances in the majority of races they contest. Very easy for willie to make a case to travel, his hand is forced with the lack of suitable races in Ireland and the amount of horses he has. Very easy for Willie to tell an owner they have a better chance in England. The fact remains his top rated Cheltenham contenders bar Annie power (I don't see her winning in Cheltenham), have not travelled. He has extraordinary control over the decisions that are made about the horses in his care. He delivers the winners and owners in the main are happy with that set up... Good luck in march also.
Report gutfeeling February 6, 2014 1:25 AM GMT
No worries Patented, Was just playing devils advocate and having some fun while doing so.
Here's hoping they all get there safe,sound and ready to run for their lives.
Report jasey February 6, 2014 8:29 AM GMT
Patented you must be a  blind punter.
Name these certs please.
You can't see Annie power winning at Cheltenham that says it all for me
Report Patented February 6, 2014 9:26 AM GMT
Try say something constructive jasey rather than always trying to find childish digs to throw.
I'll give u my thoughts on Annie power but thats all your getting...
She won't run in the mares, that will be left to quevega who is absolutely flying
There is nothing in willie mullins yard that has a chance of beating hurricane fly if he gets to Cheltenham fit and well for the champion. Believe me, that's fact.
I have no clue if AP will stay 3 miles in Cheltenham in a world hurdle. There was elements of surprise wen she won over 2m4f and doubts still remain if she'll get the trip. I don't believe she'll win it and at 5\2 I won't be backing her to find out....
Report buddeliea February 6, 2014 12:20 PM GMT
There is nothing in willie mullins yard that has a chance of beating hurricane fly if he gets to Cheltenham fit and well for the champion. Believe me, that's fact

why should we believe you??....inside info???
Report jasey February 6, 2014 3:01 PM GMT
Chilildish digs get real m8.
You are talking rubbish on this thread and the HF is the biggest cert since Istabraq thread.
Report The RealDeal February 6, 2014 8:39 PM GMT
I was thinking of backing UDS for the Champion Hurdle.

My thinking was that he is totally unexposed, may offer a bit of value as he's so clearly on the upgrade and that HF may have at least reached a plateau, may possibly be on the downgrade and as favourite may just be worth opposing.

I've thrown those thoughts in the bin though now that I know that doesn't correspond to FACT!  Laugh
Report Patented February 6, 2014 9:53 PM GMT
Yes, that is direct from the yard Bud, laugh all u want therealdeal, UDS, if he runs in the champion will be hard at it as the fly is only getting going.
Jasey I can assure u I am not talking rubbish but I guess ul have to wait till march 11th to watch it unfold as all u want to hear is wat u think will happen
Report jasey February 6, 2014 10:11 PM GMT
No thats you m8.
My mind is wide open
Report buddeliea February 7, 2014 8:01 AM GMT
Trouble is patented,i don't know you from Adam mate.
You could be genuine or you could be talking b0ll0cks.
No offence meant.
Report Harvester February 7, 2014 11:52 AM GMT
This is just rumourt patented.. I have heard indirectly from the yard that by far and away the best horse in Mullins' stable is Annie Power.. But i'm not going to bank on that when doing my betting..
Report Arklearkle February 7, 2014 2:41 PM GMT
If Annie Power was by far and away the best in the yard it would be running in the CH and Ruby would be riding it
Report Patented February 8, 2014 1:25 AM GMT
Well said arklearkle,
Totally understand bud. After march u can pass judgement!!
Report jasey February 8, 2014 7:59 AM GMT
Why didn't Ruby ride Denman in the gold cup  when he smashed Kauto.
Report buddeliea February 8, 2014 8:02 AM GMT
He got it wrong...or just did not want to get off Kauto the Champ.
Report Ramruma February 8, 2014 8:23 AM GMT
Why didn't Ruby ride Denman in the gold cup  when he smashed Kauto.

Wikipedia's definition of "gobsmacked" has a photograph of Paul Nicholls in the unsaddling enclosure afterwards.
Report jasey February 8, 2014 10:03 AM GMT
Exactly Bud thats why Ruby won't get off HF
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