Cheltenham Festival
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I remember when AP betting used to be a bit more enjoyable than it is today. With 37 days to go, and the following bookmaker prices have been similar for weeks, anyone taking an AP bet today would have to be crackers. There is a lure them in policy to be sure and the prices have to be better on the day. In fairness to those who are going NRNB the uncertainty surrounding participation makes it difficult but the percentages are shocking (says someone who can't work it out but it is obvious). Those offering similar prices who have not offered NRNB should be ashamed.
However - think it would be a bit of fun to "have a guess" on the eventual SPs of the leading horses to see how close we are on the day. It has been noticeable how on course bookies have closed up prices in leading races so might be better to decide it on pricewise column of the morning (common price available)
So the format of the prices below is: first and second prices the current available odds of two "leading" (this sticks in the gullet) high street bookmakers the first being NRNB; the third price the current betfair price available and the fourth is my prediction on the SP and, yes I predict Annie will not go to post so be good to see how others mix that up
Hurricane 3 3 4.2 3
TNO 3 3 4.3 11/2
MTOY 7/2 4 6 9/2
Our Con 5 5 6.4 7/2
Annie 6 6 14.5
UDS 10 12 16.5 16
Jezki 12 12 15 15/2
However - think it would be a bit of fun to "have a guess" on the eventual SPs of the leading horses to see how close we are on the day. It has been noticeable how on course bookies have closed up prices in leading races so might be better to decide it on pricewise column of the morning (common price available)
So the format of the prices below is: first and second prices the current available odds of two "leading" (this sticks in the gullet) high street bookmakers the first being NRNB; the third price the current betfair price available and the fourth is my prediction on the SP and, yes I predict Annie will not go to post so be good to see how others mix that up
Hurricane 3 3 4.2 3
TNO 3 3 4.3 11/2
MTOY 7/2 4 6 9/2
Our Con 5 5 6.4 7/2
Annie 6 6 14.5
UDS 10 12 16.5 16
Jezki 12 12 15 15/2
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Replies: 5
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Money always comes for the defending champ HF even more so.
i am liking 11/2 for TNO |
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I doubt that you will get 3/1 about the mighty fly on the day as we Irish will steam into him especially if vautor or the tullow tank win the supreme and/or champagne fever wins the arkle
I would take UDS out of the equation too just can't see him even turning up |
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There are always some very competitive offers from the books on this race (money back if fly wins, money back if second etc). Think you'll get 3/1 fly on the morning (sp probably 2/1). Can't see 11/2 TNO being available. Would be each way bet of the century wouldn't it?
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Not with that many good horses it aint.
6 or 7 horses that could well be placed?,so bet of the century? no imo. If UDS turns up he wont be 16. |
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I'm going to predict two sets of prices: best price on offer on the morning of the race and the SP and I'm assuming Annie Power will run but UDS won't.
Hurricane Fly: morn 100/30 SP 9/4 My Tent or Yours: 9/2, 7/2 The New One: 9/2, 4/1 Annie Power: 5/1, 11/2 Our Conor: 7/1, 13/2 Jezki: 12/1, 12/1 |