Cheltenham Festival

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21 Jan 14 18:22
Date Joined: 01 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 2,654 | Blogger: onehundredandeighty's blog
Pause Switch to Standard View Who's organising this years "Plunge"?
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Report festivalfanatic January 6, 2015 1:48 PM GMT
roger picked it last year harry, so he's probably the best person to give you the rationale. If we do the same, it will be a handicap and probably something which can be backed EW. Whilst we all hope the horse will win, I think the purpose is a bit of mischief making as much as anything else.
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2015 2:19 PM GMT
the aim with the multi is to make participants big money ! and a bit of fun along the way !
Report harry callaghan January 6, 2015 2:31 PM GMT
I think the purpose fanatic should be to shove it up the bookmakers, with maximum affect

an edge is a winner with everyone on surely...the mischief will be when we've all had it right off, that's my policy anywayHappy
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2015 2:51 PM GMT
yeah obviously the main aim is to make money ,and if a multi was to kop and a  many  forumites were  on then it would send a shudder through the bookmaking ranks and that aint a bad thing
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2015 4:14 PM GMT
was thinking of a big price each way acca nearer the 1st day of the meeting on nrnb had a near miss on 3 good priced  winners one year , and  4 places that paid out around £2,000 for a £20 each way acca a few years back !
Report rogerthebutler January 6, 2015 4:38 PM GMT
My post from the Sunday before the festival last year, outlining the idea behind the win single 'plunge'

     09 Mar 14 12:59   

Hi everyone.

Right, having got the acca off and away, now it's the handicap selection.

To save you scrolling bac a few pages the deal is this.

The bet will probably be in the 3m Handicap Chase on Tuesday, since later in the week we'll all be into our own thing in the maelstrom if Chltenham. Plus, we MAY get a bit of publicity ahead of the big 4 days if we do end up moving the market a few points.

The b1tch is that many of the runners in the selected race are also entered in the Kim Muir, so I want to ensure we at least get a run for our money by backing a horse that's declared for the race in question. At present I have two horses in mind and the selection will be one of these, the longest price one if both are declared.

If neither are declared then I have a back up in the Novices Handicap Chase that ends Tuesday's card. If that is not declared then there will be no selection. Without getting too pompous about it, I feel a weight of responsibility to you guys who are going to put however much of your hard-earned on my say-so and I'd be letting you all down if I came up with something on the fly that I'd not researched thoroughly.

So - whatever I come up with, rest assured no little effort and study has gone into it. It may win. It may fall at the first. It may run like a drain but it will have had much lean brain tissue burnt on it, that's for def!

I'm going to be up in that there London on business on Monday but will aim to be in an Internet cafe around 11.00 hrs when the declarations come out. I use the Sporting Life website. If anyone knows a site where the final decs come ot quicker, then I'm all ears. As soon as I know our horse is declared I'll post it on here, but I hope this will be no later than 11.30hrs on Monday morning.

It will be posted . The price I will leave to you to get the best you can, but I anticipate the selection being double figure odds, so some juice for e/w bettors if you're that way inclined. 
Report harry callaghan January 6, 2015 4:45 PM GMT
that is fair enough roger...who decides who picks either bet multi or single?

surely the multi is a team effort no?
Report tomdeane January 6, 2015 5:08 PM GMT
Love the Festival plunge, which is now becoming a real tradition!

I'm definitely in again. I hear what Roger is saying about having the responsibility of a horse that the whole forum is backing, and am sure it's not easy to reconcile with if it runs poorly. I am happy to be involved in some capacity though - one idea to share the weight a bit is to have two or three people who confer a bit about the single selection. Between them, those three could determine the final selection so that no one person bears the burden (of work and expectation). It might also help to have a voice or two of reason to consider the negatives about certain would-be selections.

Anyone like that plan?
Report FOYLESWAR January 6, 2015 6:08 PM GMT
think a group or select committee of forum posters who have decent records of tipping ,there are some on the ante post forum "big race threads " g mac and others who come up with decent  priced tips with a good strike rate week in week out who may be persuaded to form the committee also plenty of decent opinions from other posters plus input from the trends boys ,plenty of time ,but good to see interest in the plunges
Report onehundredandeighty January 6, 2015 6:10 PM GMT
Plunge posse 2015

love it
Report cufcno1 January 6, 2015 7:57 PM GMT
Thanks Doylestown I will start studying
Report wellchief January 6, 2015 8:18 PM GMT
Count me in!

I know what you feel about the weight of expectation - it was my Olofi suggestion in 2012 County Hurdle.  Half the forum went in at 16's and his price halved.  He ran a stinker, only to hose up in the Greatwood in his next race Cry

I felt gutted though because it was people backing him on the back of my suggestion.

The excitement didn't half build though, especially when he was then pricewised (he must read these pages!) and went joint fav at one point.

Orsoncart • March 11, 2012 2:59 PM GMT
On at 16's with WHills aswell.

wellchief • March 11, 2012 7:08 PM GMT
I see a lot have gone with Spoils and they're 12/1 now, and Laddies and 365 have gone 14/1 from 16/1.

Looks like 12 takers so far; anyone else in?????

solvingthepuzzle • March 11, 2012 7:16 PM GMT
Already on @ 20 it's chances were highlighted on here a while back (thnks to all) will have some more at the current 13 on here although doubt i'll move the market somehow!

Report postiepete • March 11, 2012 9:06 PM GMT
I am in too if I didnt say earlier.Dont fancy it but enjoy the chargeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Report rothko • March 11, 2012 9:22 PM GMT
i like a good forum chargeeeeee - count me in

Report onehundredandeighty • March 11, 2012 9:29 PM GMT
Im on like donkey kong

Report undertaker • March 12, 2012 2:44 AM GMT

unclepuncle • March 15, 2012 3:00 PM GMT
Best price 16/1 with Corals - CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGE

roobuck • March 15, 2012 4:32 PM GMT
See the 16s now gone - see what they all do when they get ready for overnight prices.
If the ground was soft enough for Cape Tribulation, then should be OK for Olofi - in again I go

Larry Sellers • March 15, 2012 8:19 PM GMT
Now best priced 12/1
The money on Olofi is RELENTLESS and ALL KNOWING

marychain1 • March 16, 2012 2:38 AM GMT
Pricewise is a confirmed chaaaaaaarrrrrrggggggggger

marychain1 • March 16, 2012 2:39 AM GMT
Hills into 8/1

Glossy • March 16, 2012 2:41 AM GMT
Pricewise read the forum.

festivalfanatic • March 16, 2012 9:10 AM GMT
Well done mc.....this is actually quite amusing!

solvingthepuzzle • March 16, 2012 9:21 AM GMT
'the puzzled look on Tanya's face'  Could the dream become a reality?

Mr Eboue • March 16, 2012 1:45 PM GMT

go-all-in • March 16, 2012 2:02 PM GMT
joint favourite on here now!
Report cufcno1 January 6, 2015 8:25 PM GMT
Foyleswar lol
Report rogerthebutler January 7, 2015 11:09 AM GMT
The excitement didn't half build though, especially when he was then pricewised (he must read these pages!) and went joint fav at one point.

I think that's what we should aim for personally.

Hope for the win by all means (and I love Mr Eboue's suggestion of how to spend it if it does come up trums - posted on the other thread I think!!) but to see the market shift or to even get mentioned in despatches on C4 or the press would be a real hoot.
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2015 4:53 PM GMT
i suggest a festival  plunge 4 horse  each way acca at big odds this year plus the handicap plunge ,on the basis that if it comes up you must make it count ,and it could be a life changer !
Report Orsoncart January 7, 2015 5:14 PM GMT
I'm happy to follow whoever picks! And appreciate what roger says about the weight of expectation. It's been great fun following these threads for the past 3 years, personally I agree an Acca or a treble is the way forward, and maybe a win single on the Tuesday, I would prefer the picks to be either the Sunday or the Monday morning before heading off to the festival for the week.

Wellchief seems to talk more sense on here than most , and Foyles is always good at the organising.

Perhaps this year will be the year.

Anyways as mentioned I will be up for it whoever picks.
Report wellchief January 7, 2015 5:45 PM GMT
You're too kind mate Happy I'll give you that fiver later!
Report Orsoncart January 7, 2015 5:53 PM GMT
Well that's in the absence of Geoff m and the headmaster whatever happened to them!
Report cufcno1 January 7, 2015 10:50 PM GMT
Why would you give yourself a fiver wellchiefGrin
Report marychain1 January 8, 2015 10:46 AM GMT
I picked the plunge horse two years ago, or was it three? Anyway I've blocked it from my mind. All I can remember is that it ran a shocker. Once bitten, twice shy.

All I'd suggest is that if a committee picks the horse, they should communicate by pm rather than public forum.

This works best when everyone knows that the plunge horse will be announced at a certain time (say 5pm Monday night?). You get the best market moves for your plunge when everyone piles in at the same time. If the committee do all their chatting in public then people will back it in dribs and drabs just from the conversation and it won't have any effect on the market.

Why don't we have a committee of 3, and they can announce when they will put TPH up on here, before getting on with choosing one.
Report tomdeane January 8, 2015 11:41 AM GMT
^ Agree 100% with this - the whole buzz for me is the panic that could be instilled on our bookie friends if, out of nowhere, one horse gets punted from lots and lots of different accounts at the same time.

In theory, if we nominate a precise time to release the info, people can all get on with the same bookie (who would be top price of course), which would really make this fun. Imagine being a trader and suddenly realising that you've taken a shedload of bets on the same horse at exactly the same time - that's what genuine gambles look like!
Report FOYLESWAR January 8, 2015 12:32 PM GMT
agreed with above, the reason I am pushing the idea of an each way  multi is because once it has been placed and prices secured and if things went well and say 3 winners or even 3 places  were accumulating onto a 4th selection and with potentialy  huge liabilitys  that the bookmakers would be able to do little about except hope that luck is on their side .
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 8, 2015 5:15 PM GMT
FOYLESWAR 08 Jan 15 12:32 Joined: 09 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 8,212 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
agreed with above, the reason I am pushing the idea of an each way  multi is because once it has been placed and prices secured and if things went well and say 3 winners or even 3 places  were accumulating onto a 4th selection and with potentialy  huge liabilitys  that the bookmakers would be able to do little about except hope that luck is on their side .

Or do what they always do and hedge their liabilities into the strongest horse racing betting markets on earth, is what you call on course, 'Office money' thus forcing the price down to somewhere they are comfortable with. As with the single selection, i am not sure what impact a forum of punters is going to make on a horse race market at the Cheltenham festival, small fry in a huge pond, as was the case last year and what would have been the year before had pw not also picked it, but as i said last year i will join in myself and will back both.
Report FOYLESWAR January 8, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
what I am saying sts is they can shorten the price as much as they like it wont affect those plungers who have taken s prices on a acca  before hand !
Report GI MAC January 8, 2015 5:52 PM GMT
I remember last year feeling a tad sorry for Roger having to come up with the selection on his own, the idea of 3 people working on it seems much better.
Report happyhibee January 8, 2015 6:05 PM GMT
Count me in again
Report wellchief January 8, 2015 6:14 PM GMT
I'm happy to go along with the concensous.  I reckon I'd be half decent at an antepost non handicap ew treble, but when it comes to handicaps I'm absolutely useless, so I only put about 10% of my time into them, and 90% into the level weights G1's and Listed races.
Report onehundredandeighty January 8, 2015 6:16 PM GMT
More then happy to get involved but up to all you guys
Report FOYLESWAR January 8, 2015 6:21 PM GMT
if we are talking about a multi acca plunge as well, then may be 4 posters selected to pick 1 horse each in selected non handicaps ,I e gold cup ,rsa ,world hurdle ,and champion chase all look open and good each way races ...........just a suggestion !
Report The RealDeal January 8, 2015 11:21 PM GMT
That could be a good shout Foyles, certainly avoids a lot of faffing and gets straight to the selections in one go!
Report wellchief January 9, 2015 7:28 PM GMT
Good idea foyles.  Depends on whether people would prefer just the one, or maybe 2 seperate plunges.

One we can all get on board on in the next week or so, so we can all cheer the same ones in their prep races in the build up to the festival, and another one which is a more "on the day", where it was similar to last year ones entries etc have been made, which can include handicaps.

I like your Giggi theme last year (Don Cossack, Trifolium and sorry can't remember the last one).  This year, something like Road to Riches (Gold Cup), Don Cossack (Ryanair), Don Poli (RSA) and Valseur Lido (JLT) are all second favs for their targets and 3696/1 with VC but their prices don't really lend well to each way.

A tenner ew acca would be £37.5k return, but the place would only be £500.

However, I know those prices will be too short for a lot of posters - so may want to do longer odds like Carlingford Lough (33/1), Smad Place (33's), Conygree or Champagne West (10's or 16's respectively), Lieutenant Colonel (12's), Apache Stronghold (16's), which will be much better for the ew element.

A possible democratic way of doing it would be for a shortlist of about 10 - 12 horses is drawn up, and then posters can all pick four that they would like and then at the end, the four with the most votes are picked, but that's getting quite complicated!!

Decisions, decisions.....
Report harry callaghan January 9, 2015 10:17 PM GMT
quite like the idea of some different picks in the foyles says

i think if one person finds an angle in one race and has put the effort in, that is the way to go but personally it is hard enough near the day to back the winner so ante post is out for me personally as need all the jigsaw pieces, which is made harder when you have multiple predictions ante post in your head and leads to a scatter gun approach this doesn't work for me anymore

would love to see everyone win a few quid so a winner is just imperative imo but am happy to pick the bones out of certain predictions if people want and aren't going to be offended by my mercenary approach to looking at things
Report FOYLESWAR January 9, 2015 10:36 PM GMT
suggest  the best thing to do is wait for non runner no bet  ,until its clear where horses are definatly targeted  and study  trends  etc ! jocci club puts up  excellent trends, stats, plenty of time to anaylise and collect data !
Report cufcno1 January 9, 2015 10:42 PM GMT
Surely lieutenant colonel Ew bet to nothing in world hurdle with so many doubts about the others
Report CVByrne January 9, 2015 11:10 PM GMT
Was thinking, Vautour, Uxizandre, Zarkandar on Thursday. Cool
Report CheltenhamRoar January 10, 2015 9:25 PM GMT
Report cufcno1 January 14, 2015 7:09 PM GMT
Found a horse for the plunge if anyone interested in it,been running over 2 mile against horses it shouldn't beat,2nd at the festival last year,will be stepped up to its proper trip,running on the Tuesday in the novice handicap chase,Thomas crapper looks as though it's been laid out for the race ! 16-1 in places
Report FOYLESWAR January 14, 2015 7:22 PM GMT
interesting ! lets hope it don't go down the pan and pisSes up and  we will all be flush !
Report PeteTheBloke January 14, 2015 7:27 PM GMT
Report cufcno1 January 14, 2015 7:44 PM GMT
GrinI knew someone would come up with one lol,most of my ante posts seem to be going that way !
Report FOYLESWAR January 14, 2015 7:47 PM GMT
good to see the plungers are getting the form books out early !
Report cufcno1 January 14, 2015 7:53 PM GMT
Is that a compliment?Confused
Report cufcno1 January 14, 2015 7:54 PM GMT
Think it's rated around 138 now,last year's winner was about the same I think !
Report buddeliea January 18, 2015 6:56 AM GMT
Couple of interesting horses that could well be plotted for the Plumpton/Cheltenham winning the same season bonus:

Grumeti trained by Alan King

Caracci Apache trained by Nicky Henderson

Worth keeping an eye on possible entries at the festival for these two.

Alan King has done this before and does seem to go for it each season.
Report .Fidway. January 18, 2015 1:19 PM GMT
Eastlake for the Grand Annual.
Report CheltenhamRoar January 21, 2015 10:56 PM GMT
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 31, 2015 12:59 PM GMT
Old Guard, Fred Winter
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods January 31, 2015 11:49 PM GMT
Dara Tango
Report buddeliea February 1, 2015 8:44 AM GMT
Alan Kings got another horse that won at Plumpton and going for the Cheltenham bonus,won yesterday.
Pain au Chocolat.
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2015 9:23 PM GMT
lads n,lassies only roughly 4 weeks to go till the tapes go up for the supreme ,is everyone happy with the format of an each way acca and a handicap plunge? ,need to form a select committee of 4 or 5 judges/overseers and select the target races ..............whos up for it ?
Report ACStafford February 3, 2015 11:37 AM GMT
You're getting ahead of yourself Foyles. Still 5 weeks left.
Report onehundredandeighty February 3, 2015 1:47 PM GMT
Im up for it if voted in Foyles
Report FOYLESWAR February 3, 2015 3:46 PM GMT
yeah i don't mind putting one up in the acca ! first we need to sort out suitable races and as the gold cup has an open and each way friendly look about it could be a starting point !
Report rogerthebutler February 5, 2015 9:26 PM GMT
Having said I wasn't going to put up anything after last year, it's not an original shout but Tony Martin is DEFINITELY up to no good with EDEYMI on the Pertemps Hurdle.

That little schooling in public exercise at Musslebrough last Sunday got him qualified and he'll be at concert pitch for the Final.
Report cufcno1 February 5, 2015 9:49 PM GMT
Roger when that horse was 2nd in the Fred winter I would have won 8 grand,instead won just over 1,gives me nightmares that horse,definitely one to keep an eye on !
Report McMurCoff February 5, 2015 10:00 PM GMT
Roger, Edeymi may not be high enough in the weights for pertemps , 135 bottom weight last year ? (As tweeted by cvb).
Report rogerthebutler February 5, 2015 10:25 PM GMT
Fair enough.

But if it does......that's all I'm saying!
Report GI MAC February 6, 2015 7:23 PM GMT
Edeymi raced off a mark of 135 at Musselburgh, which is his UK mark, so he has a good chance of making the cut in the Pertempts.
Report FOYLESWAR February 6, 2015 7:52 PM GMT
gi mac are you up for picking one for the e.w acca  multi plunge  nearer the time ? I will put one up ,
Report GI MAC February 6, 2015 8:10 PM GMT
I don't mind chipping in Foyles, I'd be more interested working on the hcp selection though. What happened to having a wee pose? Having a few people working on the plunge horse was a good idea I thought.
Report FOYLESWAR February 6, 2015 8:16 PM GMT
Report CheltenhamRoar February 11, 2015 7:25 PM GMT
Report marychain1 February 11, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
Get a few people on it, a little committee, working via pm and a time it will be announced live on this fred.

How about Foyles, GI MAC & roger? 3 is a decent number, not too many, not too few. Maybe make it 4 if there's someone else desperate to have an imput?
Report onehundredandeighty February 12, 2015 6:55 AM GMT
Report rogerthebutler February 12, 2015 7:53 AM GMT
Sorry but I'm out this year.

Happy to follow whatever anyone else puts up though
Report gazovic February 13, 2015 7:02 AM GMT
perhaps this should be an honorary appointment. one year only

like golf club captain

Or something
Report Orsoncart February 22, 2015 1:00 AM GMT
This seems to be the forgotten thread now but I'm sure there will be plenty of interest once it's sorted, personally I think Foyles should organise otherwise it will just fall flat, my vote for the panel are Wellchief (as advised earlier) Marychain whose form on the football is nothing short of extraordinary and cv Byrne for the Irish form, I've got one for the Neptune at double figures but have saddled enough losers after 30 festivals to last a lifetime, let's drive this forward my only preference is to post on the Sunday night or early Monday otherwise I will be on my way and miss out on the best prices Cool as mentioned earlier perhaps an each way treble/ Yankee and a coup in one of the championship races.
Report Orsoncart February 22, 2015 1:00 AM GMT
This seems to be the forgotten thread now but I'm sure there will be plenty of interest once it's sorted, personally I think Foyles should organise otherwise it will just fall flat, my vote for the panel are Wellchief (as advised earlier) Marychain whose form on the football is nothing short of extraordinary and cv Byrne for the Irish form, I've got one for the Neptune at double figures but have saddled enough losers after 30 festivals to last a lifetime, let's drive this forward my only preference is to post on the Sunday night or early Monday otherwise I will be on my way and miss out on the best prices Cool as mentioned earlier perhaps an each way treble/ Yankee and a coup in one of the championship races.
Report Orsoncart February 22, 2015 1:01 AM GMT
Report wellchief February 22, 2015 10:15 AM GMT
I don't mind coming up with something for the G1 races, but I'm only here until 5th March as we're heading down to Cheltenham on Friday 6th to make a full week of it.  Either a single selection, or an ew double or treble?

I'll let someone else delve into the handicaps as I have about a 2% strike rate!
Report PeteTheBloke February 22, 2015 10:34 AM GMT
Go for 66/1 chances then Wink
Report kavvie February 22, 2015 10:43 AM GMT
anyone know the plan for buywise?  seems easy enough for the handicap the first day..?
Report wellchief February 22, 2015 1:03 PM GMT
Right guys my initial thinking on an each way treble are below.  Please feel free to chip in if you disagree or if I’ve got any completely wrong.  I’ll be putting this treble on anyway, so I thought it can be used as a plunge on if needed.

By the way, where I have put negatives against my selection’s rivals, that is in no way writing them off or saying they can’t win.  It’s more my thoughts on why I won’t back them.

As I said above, I won’t be on here from Thursday 6th onwards to post anything.

1. Blaklion 14/1 (10/1 nrnb).  I think he is a huge price for the Albert Bartlett.  Windsor Park would be a big danger if he turns up, but his participation is only 50/50 at the moment.

Black Hercules is the current favourite who is drifting a bit in price.  He hasn’t been seen since the start of December, which has to be a worry.  Plus, you have to think about what he has beat?  He’s won a maiden hurdle over 2m, so will have no relevance in the Albert Bartlett, and a G3 3 mile hurdle on Heavy, and that race, from only a few runs, has yet to produce a winner since.  I backed him myself a while ago at 10’s but have since layed that off.

No More Heroes looked very good against Shaneshill, but you have to worry about the predicted better ground.  You have to ask the question as to whether all was well with Shaneshill in that race, as he hasn’t been seen since.  No More Heroes disappointed last time out when sent off a solid favourite, although to be fair that looks a very strong race on paper.

Value at Risk ran well for a long way on trials day last time out.  He is another one where the ground could be an issue, as they have talked all year about being a chaser next year who likes soft ground.  Also, going into the unknown trip wise too and Vago Collonges was beaten yesterday.

That leaves Blaklion, who has ran well at Cheltenham twice this year who appreciated the step up in trip to 3 miles.  He has solid form with Parlour Games, who is favourite for the Neptune, and Blaklion probably ran against him over a trip short of his best.

His loss last time, was part down to jockey error imo.  I thought they went for home far too early and began racing miles from home.  He was mugged on the line by Caracci Apache, but I’d be confident in him reversing that form.

2. Road to Riches (9/1).  I am a massive Conti fan, and I think he’ll take the world of beating in the Gold Cup, but as I realise this is a forum choice and a lot want to look elsewhere and I can accept that.

Outside of Conti, for me, Road to Riches is a decent bit clear of the rest.  He has improved a lot this season, and even running Sizing Europe to a head of a trip much too short was a good season opener, and Rocky Creek proved yesterday that he is a very good yardstick, and was beaten out of site by RTR at Down Royal.

Last time out in the Lexus, he had half of the current Gold Cup field behind him, on ground that he wouldn’t like – he is one who will definitely appreciate the better ground.

Yet to run at Cheltenham, but I cannot hold that as a negative, because you have to give benefit of the doubt as we don’t have anything to go on as to whether he’ll like it or not.  There are very few doubts about his stamina too.

Many Clouds is one I respect, as his Hennessey win and Argento wins were no fluke – he was one I underestimated and has excellent form.  However, the better ground will be against him in my opinion, but he is one that commands a lot of respect though.

Others in the line up like Carlingford Lough need to improve imo, as a 1 length win over Foxrock is not Gold Cup winning form imo, and after 17 chases, I’m not sure how much more improvement there is to come.  Holywell hasn’t really had a season, and I would want to see more from him to warrant his current price; even a good place run in G1 non novice company.

There’s the one-two from last year’s race coming back again, but I just cannot have either of them sorry.  Lord Windermere put up an improved performance last time, but was still beaten a good distance by Carlingford Lough, and On His Own is now an 11 year old.

There are second season novices like Smad Place, who disappointed me in the Hennessey, and couldn’t win the Argento receiving the weight.  I think this will come a year too soon Djakadam, who needs to step up again based on his latest handicap win.

3. Beltor (10/1) (8/1 nrnb).  Was visually very very impressive yesterday.  I think they will run in the Triumph as he is on a massive upward curve.  The way he pulled through the race, and then to take off after the final flight shows a huge engine.

Peace and Co is obviously the one to beat, but when you look at Bivouac, Beltor and Peace and Co beat him almost exactly the same distance, but Beltor did it a lot easier, and is around 4 times the price.

If this was a Henderson or a Nicholls horse, he’d be a lot shorter than he is right now.  We know the record of recent Adonis winners in the Triumph is excellent, and a fast pace on good ground will help him settle in behind; I don’t think he has to front run like Peace and Co.

You never know, it could have just been a one off freak performance, but on the evidence of yesterday, he has to be a good thing at 10/1, even in a race with as much depth as this.

However, as I type this now, Kalkir is absolutely friendless in the Triumph market, and is out to 25/1, and there is nothing at all waiting to back Petite Parissience, so are there doubts about those two??

So there you go, plunge or no plunge, this is my each way treble for the festival.  Antepost odds are 1650/1 for the win, and 50/1 for the place  Non Runner no Bet odds are 891/1, so almost half, so I'll be taking these prices now.

Report tomdeane February 22, 2015 6:14 PM GMT
This is so tough to organise and I appreciate that you can never keep everyone happy but surely it works best if someone puts up something at a price in one of the handicaps at a nominated time. It has more of an edge to it if 100-odd Betfairians suddenly plunge on a 33-1 shot at the same time with one bookie?

There's not much point posting selections now IMO.
Report tomdeane February 22, 2015 6:19 PM GMT
You also run the risk of non-runners. I know that it's now possible to bet NRNB but it's not much fun if we end up with two out of three running. We don't even know what the ground will be like or what the make-up of some of these races will be at the moment...
Report onehundredandeighty February 23, 2015 6:49 AM GMT
Correct Tomdeane and that is the whole concept of the plunge.We plot....via private message until we agree what where when and how then on a given day and time we let rip and "Plunge Away"
Report wellchief February 23, 2015 7:28 AM GMT
A plunge should be all of us backing one horse or a double etc that we can all cheer on and the forum can collectively win some money.

I thought an antepost treble round Christmas that we could all follow the process of was a good idea.

The idea of secretly picking one so it doesnt leak out and then somehow trying to affect the market is laughable.

There will be no more than 20 people on here backing it against a backdrop of millions and millions of pounds bet. Wouldn't even scratch the surface.
Report wellchief February 23, 2015 7:29 AM GMT
* progress of, not process of
Report rogerthebutler February 23, 2015 8:52 AM GMT
Few more than 20 last year as I recall?
Report tomdeane February 23, 2015 9:24 AM GMT
It probably is fanciful to think that we are going to manipulate markets, but it's far from impossible chief. If a biggish-priced horse is chosen that is top price with one bookie and suddenly, over the course of a few minutes, said bookie takes 40 - 50 bets ranging from fivers to fifties, I'm pretty sure alarm bells will ring for a little bit.
Report wellchief February 23, 2015 9:43 AM GMT
Fair do's mate. I won't be in this years because I won't be here, but I like the idea of doing, not so much a plunge, but a couple of long shots a few months before hand that we can all cheer on.

Eg quite a lot had Faugheen at double figure prices last year, or if we'd all had a speculative punt on UDS this year when he was 7's before Christmas.

I think there is more chance of upsetting the antepost market than the day of the race, because of the much smaller numbers involved.

Anyways, we all have different views, but good luck with whatever you pick.
Report tomdeane February 23, 2015 9:57 AM GMT
All makes perfect sense chief, and I see where you're coming from. Just think one covert plunge lends itself to poking some fun at the old enemy. Good luck with your three!
Report onehundredandeighty February 26, 2015 9:58 PM GMT
Lets go for next Sunday around teatime.We've got all week to do any private messaging of which races and selections etc once the final "Board" have been selected.

Who's wimme.............Silly
Report marychain1 February 26, 2015 10:46 PM GMT
180, I'm going to pm you my email address for a bit of private chat. Let's mull it over, and anyone else that wants in can and we'll have a chat and announce a release time and date.
Report go-all-in February 26, 2015 10:47 PM GMT
I'm readying my wheelbarrow in preparation. Grin
Report TheCollector February 26, 2015 11:28 PM GMT
all in on Faugheen
Report buddeliea February 27, 2015 7:06 AM GMT
Report FOYLESWAR February 27, 2015 9:28 AM GMT
time to get this up and running who is taking care of the handicap plunge ? as for the multi plunge I would be happy to put one up for the rsa chase nearer the time , possibly when non runner no bet kicks in ,just need 3 volenteers for possibly the gold cup ,champ chase and either 4 miler or the champ hurdle , those who have any better ideas of selected races and are happy to step up to the plate make yourselves known ! remember its an each way multi so no shorties !.........tia .........get studying
Report marychain1 February 27, 2015 12:16 PM GMT
pm me FOYLES
Report FOYLESWAR February 27, 2015 3:15 PM GMT
pm scent mc!
Report marychain1 March 1, 2015 12:04 PM GMT
OK, so far it is looking like we are going to have one plunge horse and a plunge multi. Not sure what form the multi will take yet, possibly a trixie or L15.

We've got one definite pick courtesy of wellchief. Myself, onehundredandeighty and FOYLESWAR (I think) are scouring the form books (or tea leaves in my case) looking for the others.

If anyone else wants to put one up then contact me by pm and we'll make the multi a four horse job instead of 3.

Looking like the horses will be announced on here on the Sunday afternoon before the festival but bear with us it will be confirmed shortly.
Report wellchief March 1, 2015 12:46 PM GMT
I can't take this kind of pressure!
Report CheltenhamRoar March 2, 2015 11:08 PM GMT
Report wellchief March 4, 2015 6:03 PM GMT
Don't know if the soon to be plunge horse has been tipped up today because blue all over oddschecker for it's handicap target.

I reckon the bookies have been spying on the conversations between me and Marychain.
Report Mr Eboue March 4, 2015 6:24 PM GMT
GSHQ monitoring this forum like it was a ISIS get together!
Report marychain1 March 4, 2015 6:25 PM GMT
Must have been tipped up somewhere. Mind you, the bookies are shortening up horses right, left and centre
Report Mr Eboue March 4, 2015 6:26 PM GMT
Standard bookmaker practice isnt it?

Shorten absolutely everything a soon as the 5 day decs appear.

Report buddeliea March 10, 2015 5:26 AM GMT
Report marychain1 March 10, 2015 7:28 AM GMT
See other fred
Report buddeliea March 10, 2015 7:39 AM GMT
Thanks mary
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