Queen Mother Pricewise

I would be picking Sizing Europe. I understand he was a let down on his last run and isn't getting any younger but he has good course form and if SS doesn't turn up then the 25's NRNB with VC seems a good bet to me. I have had a little piece of that

Captain Conan at 12's would be a fair shout, the plan this year was to step up to target the Ryanair, but that's probably shelved now, I think they'll want to run a back up in the QM in case SS goes wrong or doesn't turn up....he and SDG (who dislikes the track) are far closer together than the market suggests....it's an unpopular theory I know but for all his admirable runs this year SDG has had a few things that have definitely fallen his way that IMO has skewed his overall picture.

Kid Cassidy on the basis he's beaten the great pretender SdG at the course already this season

I agree with Roger. Kid Cassidy as the NRNB selection. If SS is back to full health then I suspect Kid Cassidy will go for Grand Annual.

Don't get this captain Conan hype, way overrated.

Really hard to pick an outsider for this, as most are well held through one form line or another.

The Benefficient / Hidden Cyclone / Arvika form line isn't looking too good now after Sire De Grugy's performance at the weekend.  I can't have the Nicholls' novices, and surely Kid Cassidy is going down the handicap route again following his "run" in that same Benefficient race.

The only one I can give a remote chance too (outside of the top two) is Twinlight.  If you can forgive his last run against Captain Chris (over 2 and a half) he put in a good performance against Oscars Well giving weight, and looked to be on an upward curve (he beat Bailey Green as a novice, who gave Simonsig a run for his money).  If Arvika doesn't turn up (odds suggesting he won't), it's likely he'd be the Mullins and Walsh combination, which would automatically clip him in a few points.

Tentitive pick, but 20/1 NRFB or 25/1 antepost are available.

u can get 25/1 NRNB on Twinlight with Lardblokes chief

He's on a hiding to nothing having to pick one in this race, I'd guess at Kid Cassidy

Segal has said time and again that his rationale in these selections is to find something now that will be shorter on the day - not necessarily the winner.

How the hell can he work that angle then, not knowing what the deal is with SS? And by that I mean not just will SS turn up but will he get halfway round and then his heart issue kick in again?

Agree 100% GI MAC.
Just had a quick look through the entries and if you take out  SS & SDG, which he will, the rest look a bunch of horses that would not get placed in a BAD year. No idea what his selection will be. Maybe he will take a chance on the novice, Dodging Bullets as it has a good ish track record.

GL Tom

Kid Cassidy & Special Tiara have lots of Blue

Cheers GI MAC. Didn't relaise laddies were NRNB

Not sure whether I'll have any, but he's the one for me at this stage.

Have to admit that I didn't see Kid Cassidy's win over SDG, but it looks like he was getting a lot of weight, and it looks like SDG is a different horse now.  I can see both Kid Cassidy and Alderwood reopposing in the Grand Annual again.

NRNB isn't good enough. I'd want SSNRNB.

Alderwood pricewised 33/1

has he put this up to win or EW ?

Festival form points to Alderwood at 33-1

THERE is a feeling the BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase is a dead market. How can you possibly have a bet if you don't know whether Sprinter Sacre is going to run? I look at it the other way. Don't the doubts surrounding Sprinter Sacre make this a race with loads of scope for the current market to be turned totally on its head? And even if he does run, who's to know what sort of form he is going to be in when he gets there, writes Tom Segal.

The Stan James Champion Hurdle boasts six or seven horses with basically flawless records, and the Betfred-sponsored Gold Cup is dominated by last year's winner Bobs Worth and King George winner Silviniaco Conti. Both races have stable markets, with little scope for movement. The Champion Chase is the opposite, because the odds-on favourite is a horse who was pulled up with a heart problem the last time we saw him.

Obviously, if a peak-form Sprinter Sacre turns up there is little chance of him being beaten, but there is risk involved in all ante-post betting and for me the Champion Chase is one of the more ante-post friendly festival races at this stage.

The clear second-best two-mile chaser around is Saturday's runaway Ascot winner Sire De Grugy. He has looked superb four times this season and on all those runs he has every right to be considered the horse most likely to step up if the reigning champ doesn't make it to Cheltenham.

However, the one time he didn't win was when beaten at the track in the Shloer Chase in November. On the figures he ran up to scratch in trying to give Kid Cassidy 10lb, but there was something about the run I didn't like as he was throwing himself at the fences.

What's more, both times he has run at Cheltenham he's never really bounded up the hill, although on each occasion he was far from disgraced. With those concerns in mind I don't want to back him seven weeks before the race at 11-4.

Last year's Jewson winner Benefficient is seriously underrated and bounced back to form when beating the best of the Irish two-milers at Leopardstown over Christmas.

My worry about him is his jumping. He got away with it on soft ground last time, when Sizing Europe went off too fast and set the race up for the stayers, but on better ground at Cheltenham I have a feeling he might get caught out.

Captain Conan has always been a talking horse. He looks good on occasions and bad on others and he tied up quickly when well behind Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek. He might be better at Cheltenham but could easily end up in the Ryanair Chase, like Benefficient.

The value has to be with last year's Grand Annual hero and former County Hurdle winner Alderwood. He is two from two at the festival and the form of his Grand Annual win is rock solid.

First of all he beat Kid Cassidy, Sire De Grugy's conqueror earlier in the season, on the bridle, but it was also ten lengths back to Oiseau De Nuit, who also has plenty of top form.

And don't forget he was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at the Punchestown festival, so the inherent class is there. It is only his patchy record overall that sees him trading at 33-1.

Alderwood suffered an injury at the start of the season but connections are confident they can get him to Cheltenham in peak form, where his only target is the Champion Chase. If Sprinter Sacre doesn't make the gig and Sire De Grugy isn't at home on the undulations, 33-1 about Alderwood looks great value each-way.

Today's bet

Alderwood
BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
1pt each-way at 33-1 generally

As bad a tip as when he picked Newmill for the race in 2006.

Fancy Captain Conan was @ cheltenham when CC put SDG in his place last november and cant get that out my mind don't think he was 100% in the Tingle creek and only ran as a afterthought when SS went wrong was all over the winner turning for home then emptied ... was also @ cheltenham this year when Kid cassidy beat SDG and easily went past him on the run in ...done excellent this season SDG but underporforms @ cheltenham and i am not a fan of him for the CC

Well another interesting selection from the great man, now tipping a horse thats been out for the season so far....
This is a horse i like alot but just don't see it as a Champion chaser, still at least we might get a run with this one....

Well another interesting selection from the great man, now tipping a horse thats been out for the season so far....
This is a horse i like alot but just don't see it as a Champion chaser, still at least we might get a run with this one....

I backed alderwood this morning had to travel a few miles to a betfred as my local billys were going 20s at around 8.40 this morning ,very lightly raced and as sir tom says 2 from 2 at the festival and progressive ,this horse has been handled with kid gloves in a lot  its races until the "application of money" was administered at  target races and he has mostly delivered ,could have a lot of improvement and has not fully shown his hand and with his connections targeting the qm I took the hint !

Lads have pushed Alderwood out to 33/1 nrnb. They seem to be making a point of laying his antepost tips. They did it with Al Ferof too.