Cheltenham Festival
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First things first, I haven't been too impressed by the three main English challengers in Oscar Whisky, Taquin Du Seuil or Wonderful Charm. They're all closely matched on their runs this season, with Wonderful Charm being the pick of them when going down 1/2l giving 8lbs to Oscar Whisky. But there is no standout from them and they're all way too short now to be of much interest.
Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever have very strong claims, but we don't know where the will run yet. One will surely run in the Arkle with the other running in this. So as an antepost proposition neither can be backed. Whichever horse runs in this will need to be onside as I rate both horses very highly.
Vukovar comes with a reputation but he isn't one that interests much based on what he's done so far. While Don Cossack, Morning Assembly, Ballycasey & Rock on Ruby unlikely to run here. Uxizandre has impressed me on his 2 starts this season, but with Kings yard shut down right now I'd like to see his well being on the track again before I'd back him antepost.
Which brings us to my selection. Caid Du Berlais, Nicholls had said "He was very much a shell of a horse last season, but did particularly well physically over the summer" he ran a fine effort behind Jezki at Down Royal this season before his chasing bow at Exeter. He put in the best round of jumping I've seen on a chasing debut since Sprinter Sacre. When he quickened the pace down the back he put in his best leaps. He is one who will relish a fast pace and it's unsurprising Nicholls has said he's excited about this horse. He's also got some festival form in his 2nd to Flaxen Flare in the Fred Winter.
He goes for the Scilly Isles and Pendil prior to Cheltenham where the JLT is the likely target but will also have an Arkle entry. He could likely impress in those two races and go much shorter than his current price.
2pts Caid Du Berlais @ 25/1 - VC nrfb
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
@cvbyrne
Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever have very strong claims, but we don't know where the will run yet. One will surely run in the Arkle with the other running in this. So as an antepost proposition neither can be backed. Whichever horse runs in this will need to be onside as I rate both horses very highly.
Vukovar comes with a reputation but he isn't one that interests much based on what he's done so far. While Don Cossack, Morning Assembly, Ballycasey & Rock on Ruby unlikely to run here. Uxizandre has impressed me on his 2 starts this season, but with Kings yard shut down right now I'd like to see his well being on the track again before I'd back him antepost.
Which brings us to my selection. Caid Du Berlais, Nicholls had said "He was very much a shell of a horse last season, but did particularly well physically over the summer" he ran a fine effort behind Jezki at Down Royal this season before his chasing bow at Exeter. He put in the best round of jumping I've seen on a chasing debut since Sprinter Sacre. When he quickened the pace down the back he put in his best leaps. He is one who will relish a fast pace and it's unsurprising Nicholls has said he's excited about this horse. He's also got some festival form in his 2nd to Flaxen Flare in the Fred Winter.
He goes for the Scilly Isles and Pendil prior to Cheltenham where the JLT is the likely target but will also have an Arkle entry. He could likely impress in those two races and go much shorter than his current price.
2pts Caid Du Berlais @ 25/1 - VC nrfb
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
@cvbyrne
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I put this up for the Arkle at 25/1 a couple if weeks ago on stevo1s thread and think he will run there rather than the JLT but we will see....
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Really rate this horse.
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Well he's having his next two runs over 2m4f and Nicholls has Dodging Bullets & Hinterland for the Arkle so baring an injury I'd expect him to line up here.
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if FY and CF go arkle route is there any chance ballycasey coming here cv??? currently awaiting a price from betv nrfb
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Stable also has Wonderful Charm who is favourite for this
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I like this horse as well but I suspect he would already be several points shorter if he were considered a likely runner.
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Caid entered in the Lightning at Donny on Sat and not Hinterland like Nicholls said
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Looks like a Grand Annual horse to me. paul Nicholls already has joint Fav's in both races mentioned above. He has described Caid as a horse with massive potential but still not the finished article. Saturday looks a very tough assignment for him on his 2nd chase start so it would be a surprise for me to see him get a clear round without troubling the judge and get a nice mark for the Cheltenham Handicap.
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Interesting that he's changed from what he said a few weeks ago about running plans. Either Hinterland had a minor setback or more likely he'll be running in the Game Spirit at Newbury as there will be no Sprinter Sacre or Sire De Grugy and Hinterland is very experienced for a novice. Hinterland might even be going for the Champion Chase as he has an entry.
Caid and Mr Mole entered at Donny on Saturday. Caid could still go for the Pendil next as it'll have a better spacing between races. I also can see Wonderful Charm stepping up to 3m for RSA if Just a Par skips the festival. I'm sure Nicholls is keeping his options open. I've gone non runner free bet so I'm not overly worried tbh. He'd be interesting in the Arkle too, but I feel Nicholls has a lot of faith in Dodging Bullets. We shall see in time I suppose. |
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I'm sure PFN said Just A Par would go to Aintree not Cheltenham.
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Can't see Wonderful Charm heading to the RSA myself, no matter what happens with Just A Par.
Nicholls has said he is putting him away until the Festival because he needs good ground, and so far he is the best in England over this distance. He is only 6, so I think the RSA would be a year too early for him (the last 6 year old to win it was Florida Pearl over 15 years ago - Star De Mohaison won it as a five year old, but with the old weight allowance). No doubt that either Champagne Fever or Felix Yonger would be formidable opposition (more so Champagne Fever at this distance), but the English trio are no mugs, and I'd also rate Don Cossack as a big threat if he lined up. This is shaping up to be one of the races of the festival imo. |
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Nicholls mentioned Arkle & Jewsons (Now JLT) when outlining his antipost plans a couple weeks ago, he's not talking about him like a handicapper.
Jockey had nice things to say about the horse http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Moore-merrier-trainer-Tingle-Creek/story-20308676-detail/story.html |
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Thanks for that link GI Mac, just have to hope that Nicholls mentioning the two 2m4f races as his original targets prior to Cheltenham is an indication he intends to run him in the JLT Nov Chase. But there's no gaurantee of that of course.
Mr Mole could be his intedned runner at Donny with Hinterland going for the Game Spirit but we'll see. I'd be keen to back him over 2m too, he's not short of pace. |
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To be honest, I haven't followed Caid Du Berlais' career particularly closely over the last year.
I remember watching his UK debut at Chepstow, when he was fav and would have been stuffed by Swynmoor, and then well held in the Betfair. It looks like he could be a completely different prospect at chasing though, but only one run so far would be a slight concern (especially against inferior opposition), so another run before the Festival is essential imo (which it obviously looks like will happen). I don't think Nicholls would have a problem running two in the Arkle and two in the Jewson. |
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* I was going to say that I first thought he'd be another French import who wouldn't live up to his reputation when he was turned over on debut, but looks like it won't turn out that way.
Can anyone remind of that flat horse who placed in a G1 or G2 who ended up with Nicholls last year (or maybe the year before), but was cr@p over hurdles - it's wrecking my head! |
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It's ok, just remembered it was Dildar.
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Dildar has a big h/c win in him this season. Just needs some decent ground. It was a very good effort fto at Ascot in a race which has thrown up a few winners since. I have him in my horse tracker. But it's quite possible he's met a setback, he's been very weak in previous seasons according to Nicholls.
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Nicholls in todays RP - Dodging Bullets and Hinterland are both in the Arkle and I expect that's where Dodging Bullets will run. It's an option worth having (Champ Chase entry) for Hinterland just in case it cuts up as he's a 2nd season Novice.
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Mullins in RP side bar I missed - "One or other of Caid Du Berlais and Mr Mole will run, but I might leave Caid Du Berlais for the Scilly Isles at Sandown next month"
Happy to have read that  |
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JLT NOVICES' CHASE
Grade 1, £120,000. Thursday, March 13th. 2m. 4f. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 413F23 AHYAKNOWYERSELF (IRE) 8 G Carstairs & R Marker Dr Richard Newland 551621 ANNACOTTY (IRE) 6 Liz Prowting Martin Keighley 003-111 ARNAUD (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Charles Byrnes IRE 14-1154 ART OF LOGISTICS (IRE) 6 Munnelly Support Services Ltd Dessie Hughes IRE 5-F2211 BABY SHINE (IRE) 8 P A Philipps, T S & Mrs L Redman Lucy Wadham 1/113-1 BALLYCASEY (IRE) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 262153 BALNASLOW (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 2/2321/-0 BATONNIER (FR) 8 Raymond Mould Alan King 3213-15 BRIGHT NEW DAWN (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 11-2611 BYERLEY BABE (IRE) 7 J P McManus Robert Tyner IRE 2202-21 CAID DU BERLAIS (FR) 5 Donlon, Doyle, MacDonald & C Barber Paul Nicholls 515004 CAPTAIN OCANA (IRE) 9 Nicholas Brown Paul Henderson 033022 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 6 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE 3113-13 CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 100-0F3 CLOSE HOUSE 7 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 2425-23 COLOUR SQUADRON (IRE) 8 J P McManus Philip Hobbs 143-1F2 DARK LOVER (GER) 9 Des Nichols & Peter Hart Paul Nicholls 122-121 DEFY LOGIC (IRE) 7 J P McManus Paul Nolan IRE U1124-1 DJAKADAM (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE F23-121 DON COSSACK (GER) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 613211 DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 8 Options O Syndicate Nigel Twiston-Davies 111-321 DRESSEDTOTHENINES (IRE) 7 J P McManus Eddie Harty IRE 3124-21 EDUARD (IRE) 6 Kingdom Taverns Ltd Nicky Richards 25/-1112 FELIX YONGER (IRE) 8 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 220F11 GARDEFORT (FR) 5 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 13-U102 GOD'S OWN (IRE) 6 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George 2P3-112 KING OF THE WOLDS (IRE) 7 Mr & Mrs Graham Calder Malcolm Jefferson 12P-121 MANY CLOUDS (IRE) 7 Trevor Hemmings Oliver Sherwood 3//034-16 MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (IRE) 9 Mrs M C Sweeney Alan King 245-343 MINSK (IRE) 6 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE 213/11-1 MOZOLTOV 8 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 1P3-213 MR MOLE (IRE) 6 J P McManus Paul Nicholls 1-502F1 MULLAGHANOE RIVER (IRE) 6 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE 6-311U1 NEXT SENSATION (IRE) 7 Mark Blandford Michael Scudamore 04-2231 NO BUTS 6 Wontcostalot Partnership David Bridgwater 1114-2P O'FAOLAINS BOY (IRE) 7 Trembath, Hyde, Outhart & Hill Rebecca Curtis 46P-311 OFF THE GROUND (IRE) 8 Axom (XXVI) Emma Lavelle 23P-342 OHIO GOLD (IRE) 8 P M Warren Colin Tizzard 2P4-211 OSCAR WHISKY (IRE) 9 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson 106-13P ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE 3123-21 ROCK ON RUBY (IRE) 9 The Festival Goers Harry Fry 0-1146P SHRAPNEL (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 2125-12 SIZING GOLD (IRE) 7 Alan & Ann Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE 116-F65 SOME TIKKET (IRE) 7 K S Jones/David Monaghan Dessie Hughes IRE 6-11321 TAQUIN DU SEUIL (FR) 7 Martin Broughton & Friends 1 Jonjo O'Neill 126-221 THE ITALIAN YOB (IRE) 6 The Macaroni Beach Society Nick 031-131 THE PAPARRAZI KID (IRE) 7 Byerley Thoroughbred Racing Willie Mullins IRE 12//14-22 TOUCH THE EDEN (FR) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 2/24-122 TRIFOLIUM (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Charles Byrnes IRE F116-44 UP AND GO (FR) 6 Tim Leslie Donald McCain 2315-11 UXIZANDRE (FR) 6 J P McManus Alan King F1-1121 VUKOVAR (FR) 5 GDM Partnership Harry Fry 10-1112 WONDERFUL CHARM (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 53 entries 23 Irish-trained Timeform Top 5 Master Ratings: 160 FELIX YONGER 159p DEFY LOGIC 155 TRIFOLIUM 154p CHAMPAGNE FEVER 152+DON COSSACK |
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What a race tomorrow, i have already backed Valdez for the Arkle.
Love the sporting life predicted odds: Rock On Ruby (1/2), Valdez (11/2), Fox Appeal (8/1), Caid Du Berlais (10/1), Arnaud (12/1), God's Own (25/1) |
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aye, it's a cracker, and the ground is pretty decent as we speak. If CDB opened at 10's I'd jump at it, given the form of the stable, interesting he's running in a 2m nov race.
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You'd be laying ROR at 1/2 all day long
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ROR 11/8 With Victors, 7/2 Valdez, 9/2 Fox Appeal, 8/1 bar
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Took 8/1 and 7/1 about Caid for tomorrow. Great race.
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8/1
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8/1 was gone pretty quick, I put him up on my site and realised a couple of hours later the 8/1 was gone so the advice of 8/1 was hardly any help as he was no longer that price. 7/1 was next best with Lads. Also went in again at that price. He'll gallop them into the ground imo.
Took a little more @ 33/1 for JLT too today. Rumour that Wonderful Charm may go for Ryanair if Al Ferof goes Gold Cup. Still think win or lose tomorrow Caid Du Berlais is going for this race. |
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I'm not as confident as that RE his festival target, he's only raced once further than 2m and that was only 2m3f. I reckon Nicholls is trying him over 2miles to see what he's like, I'm on both races.
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Possible Mac, but he does have 2 pretty good ones for the Arkle already.
Having said that though, a lot could depend on Sprinter Sacre, cos if he aint there then one of Nicholls could end up in the Queen Mother. |
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Pretty good ones yes, but I think CDB will prove better, Nicholls has always rated him highly, so has Bromley. I believe Hinterland will run in the QM regardless if SS runs or not, (he should be in the race anyways)which leaves the way for CDB to run alongside Dodging Bullets in Arkle. Just a hunch mind you.
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CV I could get a max of 14.39 at 7/1 with ladcrooks...how much did you get on?
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As for his likely target why would you run him over 2m at this stage on his 2nd run when JLT was the target?
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Had a score each with VC & Lads
As for 2m trip tomorrow, softish ground and gives him more time between races instead of 2 runs over 2m4f in February as was original plan according to Nicholls. I'm still pretty sure he'll run in one or the other over 2m4f next month. Think he's possibly mulling a different race for all 4 of his, DB Arkle, Hinterland CC, CDB Jewson, Wonderful Charm Ryanair. All speculation at this stage of course. |
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Yeah certainly interesting. Got him at Arkle for 25/1 along with Mozoltov at same price and Felix Yonger at 10/1 but by Sunday night all 3 could be out with the washing.always felt you need a 2.5m horse for Arkle and a 3m for the JLT
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Rumour that Wonderful Charm may go for Ryanair if Al Ferof goes Gold Cup
Please don't say that CV. Got WC at a good price in this and Al Ferof at a massive price in the Ryanair. Added to this potential Supreme Briar Hill nonsense, not my best half an hour this morning! I might have a little bit on CDB as a saver. |
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Nicholls States today he thinks CDB will be suited to this drop back in trip.
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He just said in the morning line that 2 and a half on good ground is what he wants!
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LOL...i dont watch that...was just reading betfair column
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Ir ROR withdrawal was down to the ground then it is a crazy decision, Doncaster rarely has testing ground.
ROR needs experience and isnt going to find good ground this spring. |