Cheltenham Festival
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Ah the Supreme, the race which kicks off the culmination of all the hopes and dreams of the racing season. I learnt a valuable lesson in 2010 when I was sucked into the Dunguib hype. I’d been on from early antepost but I ended up with too much on, when Go Native got injured early in the Champion Hurdle a couple of hours later it was the start of the worst Cheltenham I’ve ever had. The lesson I learnt that day - avoid betting too much on the Supreme. Thankfully this year it’s a very open renewal and I’m going to go with the hype again but this time for a 20/1 shot. West Wizard, who got beat on his debut this season, but as has been the case for many, he needed the run.
"He's a horse who finds life very easy at home. You can put him with the best in the yard and it's hard to get him out of third gear, never mind fourth, as he finds it so easy.He's a horse who doesn't have a hard time at home and he probably just left himself a bit short, so I'd imagine you'd see a massive improvement the next day. From what he does at home to what he showed at Kempton, I don't think yesterday is going to change our opinion of him." - Geraghty
"They've been needing it much more than normal," Henderson said. "And when they are as good as [West Wizard], and they're laid-back, they're just not doing an awful lot. Barry [Geraghty] said that if he's ever going to get beat, today was the today, because his life's in front of him. The big, enthusiastic horses that run all over the gallops will get themselves quite fit, but he's laid-back and has a lot of ability.”
Three days ago Dai Waters said they are waiting for the ground to dry out to run him as he’s ready to go. Plenty of horses have run in the Supreme with just 2 runs under their belt, Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre being two who ran in a red hot supreme. This year’s race is very open and lacks anything like the standard of last year or 2011. It’s important to point out Barry Geraghty is THE best judge of a horses ability out there and the most honest too. He told everyone Sprinter Sacre was a flying machine, he always sang the praises of Bobs Worth. He thinks this West Wizard is right out of the top drawer, Henderson too, he’d as early as last March put up West Wizard as the horse to follow this season. We’ve seen his ability in his facile bumper win last season where he had The Skyfarmer beaten by 8l, that horse has won his 4 subsequent starts, so we know there is ability there.
It’s not like we’re asked to take single figures based on this hype. He’s a 20/1 shot and we can take a punt on that ability in a race like the Supreme. So we shall
2pts West Wizard @ 20/1 - Racebets
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
"He's a horse who finds life very easy at home. You can put him with the best in the yard and it's hard to get him out of third gear, never mind fourth, as he finds it so easy.He's a horse who doesn't have a hard time at home and he probably just left himself a bit short, so I'd imagine you'd see a massive improvement the next day. From what he does at home to what he showed at Kempton, I don't think yesterday is going to change our opinion of him." - Geraghty
"They've been needing it much more than normal," Henderson said. "And when they are as good as [West Wizard], and they're laid-back, they're just not doing an awful lot. Barry [Geraghty] said that if he's ever going to get beat, today was the today, because his life's in front of him. The big, enthusiastic horses that run all over the gallops will get themselves quite fit, but he's laid-back and has a lot of ability.”
Three days ago Dai Waters said they are waiting for the ground to dry out to run him as he’s ready to go. Plenty of horses have run in the Supreme with just 2 runs under their belt, Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre being two who ran in a red hot supreme. This year’s race is very open and lacks anything like the standard of last year or 2011. It’s important to point out Barry Geraghty is THE best judge of a horses ability out there and the most honest too. He told everyone Sprinter Sacre was a flying machine, he always sang the praises of Bobs Worth. He thinks this West Wizard is right out of the top drawer, Henderson too, he’d as early as last March put up West Wizard as the horse to follow this season. We’ve seen his ability in his facile bumper win last season where he had The Skyfarmer beaten by 8l, that horse has won his 4 subsequent starts, so we know there is ability there.
It’s not like we’re asked to take single figures based on this hype. He’s a 20/1 shot and we can take a punt on that ability in a race like the Supreme. So we shall
2pts West Wizard @ 20/1 - Racebets
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
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I have to say CVB. It's very hard to disagree with nearly all of what you say. You seem much more easy going these days too
 BJG and NJH aren't easily impressed and the hyperbole we have had with this horse is enough for me. I've been chipping away at the 20's. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Backed him nrfb 10/1 before he had jumped a hurdle!! been available at much bigger since his race
 that will teach me hot to get caught up in hype!!although in my defence I don't normally do that. Your post does make a lot of sense though cv, and gives me hope that I still have a live one, even if I could have had a better price  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Best price 16/1 now.
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yes I was advised to bet him early autumn, he is very good and the defeat was disappointing but he blew up and obviuously needed the run the concern for me is when is he going to run next and hendersons form still a bit hit and miss
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I think he might be out next weekend if the ground isn't horrible.
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cheers that's good news
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I have a nice 20/1 voucher - my Lambourn Mole tells me this is the best young horse they've had in the yard since Simonsig arrived based on homework.Now hw may well prove to be a morning glory but with that yard info he's definitely worth a poke at 20's.
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I'm on early too, due to the hype, but would like to see an entry or two pretty soon to let us know all is well
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Each-way, I trust? I'm not sure Henderson has ever won the Supreme Novices, despite having run the likes of Binocular, Sprinter Sacre and My Tent Or Yours. Here is his record for the past decade.
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2 winners, a long time ago.
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he,s due one then....
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I backed him at 20/1 after he won his bumper. Personally, I wouldn't touch him at 50/1 now, however bad you think the line up will be. In all likelihood if he makes it - and that is a big if - there will still be plenty of rivals with massively better form. All that is keeping this horse relatively static in the market is the hype from connections. So far he has dismissed a useful, but far from brilliant horse in a bumper and then been comprehensively trounced on his hurdling debut when he looked ordinary at his obstacles and woefully one-paced. Two races round a track that couldn't be much more different to Cheltenham. All this talk about the ground drying up, when is that going happen? If he is that ground dependent perhaps even the opening day good to soft might not be to his liking? The horse has a mountain to climb.
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Flown in 92 was trained by NJH when it won the Supreme my first festival. I think it was only it's second start but could be wrong.
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Can't say I'd give a 2nd thought to the fact he's trained the 2nd three times in recent years. Sure people used silly stats to say Simonsig couldn't win Neptune as Hendo never had the winner before. Seems rather strange way to look at a race tbh.
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Any danger if he doesn't get a run soon that they might just maintain the novice status for next year and hope for a clearer run?
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I was thinking that, but if they think he's as good as they say then surely they'll want to crack on and go over for Champion Next year before embarking on a chase career. He's by Kings Theatre and they all end up over fences. There is novice big races after Cheltenham.
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Can't knock the suggestion at the price, as there are far shorter-priced horses with a lot to prove. You can't help be swayed by the glowing reports from usually level-headed connections either. That said, I'm having difficulty picturing this one winning. Just watched his bumper win the other day and I didn't think it was as electric as I was expecting based on other comments.
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