Cheltenham Festival
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Baily Green, ran a superb race to be 2nd to Simonsig in the Arkle last year. Lost a shoe early on his next start at Aintree so forgiven that subsequent run. He would have hated the deep ground at Punchestown on his final start last term and it was the end of a very long season for him.
He’s by Kings Theatre so is a horse who really appreciates good ground and not lacking stamina. He ran a very good race first time out this season behind Sizing Europe before meeting a setback and reported to be badly needing the run when he tackled 2 miles on soft ground in the Dial A Bet at Christmas. Mouse had warned prior to the Kinloch Brae chase that he still wasn’t fully fit and would prefer better ground so it was very encouraging to see him narrowly beaten by Texas Jack, especially as he met the last wrong.
We know how good Mouse is at getting his string ready for Cheltenham, he likes to send them there fresh off a break and rarely has them run in February. We know how well Baily Green ran in the Arkle off a break and I’d expect the same again. We know he likes the track and he’ll certainly enjoy the trip of the Ryanair.
All in all he looks a solid bet in the race given Cue Card is 85% certain to run in the Gold Cup. Al Ferof looked for all the world as if he needed further after the King George and I’d expect him to be Gold cup bound. Last Instalment could be Gold Cup bound if he runs well in Hennessy as Giggenstown have the massively underrated and over looked Toner Doudaires who has form on the New Course from the 2012 festival. Benefficient is clearly a big player but there isn’t much juice in 7/1 now.
Dynaste has had muscle problems and could run in Gold Cup, but would still appeal non runner no bet at 10/1, Arvika needs it soft and right handed. Marito is unconfirmed runner and fell at the course last year. Sizing Europe is a 12yo. Captain Conan & Module can lay down their claims if they can between now at March but with lackluster runs on their most recent starts they can't be backed at this stage.
So it’s very possible this race could see a massive shake up in the betting market when we get to the 5 day declaration stage. So in that case it’s best to side with a consistent horse with festival form that has juice in the price and non runner no bet concession. It's Baily Green.
1.5pts e/w Baily Green 25/1 – nrnb B365
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
He’s by Kings Theatre so is a horse who really appreciates good ground and not lacking stamina. He ran a very good race first time out this season behind Sizing Europe before meeting a setback and reported to be badly needing the run when he tackled 2 miles on soft ground in the Dial A Bet at Christmas. Mouse had warned prior to the Kinloch Brae chase that he still wasn’t fully fit and would prefer better ground so it was very encouraging to see him narrowly beaten by Texas Jack, especially as he met the last wrong.
We know how good Mouse is at getting his string ready for Cheltenham, he likes to send them there fresh off a break and rarely has them run in February. We know how well Baily Green ran in the Arkle off a break and I’d expect the same again. We know he likes the track and he’ll certainly enjoy the trip of the Ryanair.
All in all he looks a solid bet in the race given Cue Card is 85% certain to run in the Gold Cup. Al Ferof looked for all the world as if he needed further after the King George and I’d expect him to be Gold cup bound. Last Instalment could be Gold Cup bound if he runs well in Hennessy as Giggenstown have the massively underrated and over looked Toner Doudaires who has form on the New Course from the 2012 festival. Benefficient is clearly a big player but there isn’t much juice in 7/1 now.
Dynaste has had muscle problems and could run in Gold Cup, but would still appeal non runner no bet at 10/1, Arvika needs it soft and right handed. Marito is unconfirmed runner and fell at the course last year. Sizing Europe is a 12yo. Captain Conan & Module can lay down their claims if they can between now at March but with lackluster runs on their most recent starts they can't be backed at this stage.
So it’s very possible this race could see a massive shake up in the betting market when we get to the 5 day declaration stage. So in that case it’s best to side with a consistent horse with festival form that has juice in the price and non runner no bet concession. It's Baily Green.
1.5pts e/w Baily Green 25/1 – nrnb B365
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
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Yep,totally agree.
25 nrnb, darn good bet..im in. Good post mate |
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Yep, placed this bet too earlier tonight. Was toying with placing it earlier in the week but decided to hang fire after Mouse's comments on fitness etc. When he travelled well into the lead I thought I might be taking slightly shorter for the Ryanair so happy to still get 25's.
The race surely has to cut up a fair bit and agree with all the points made above. Hidden cyclone caught my eye too but connections seem to be favouring the champion chase. |
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Seems a cracking price with NRNB. I can see his SP being around 8/1, given the amount of the principals that might not be running. I see he's entered in the QMCC. Have connections suggested which he might run in?
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^^ Agreed. Like this - best post so far this yr CV! Keep them coming!
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Any posts from mouse regards cheltenham target?
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Yeah worth a bet I suppose he's slightly hit and miss but if you catch him on a good he's in with a shout. Al Ferof 6/1 NRNB is worth topping up aswell I reckon.
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Good post as usual CV, but have you also had a look at another M.Morris entry. RATHLIN. He's in the 5 day decs for Saturdays Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas. Presumably, as a pipe opener for future races. However, he has really came into his own winning his last 3 runs over fences and in some style too. The last of which he murdered Hidden Cyclone at Galway and HC really has franked the form since. Rathlin has had 1 run at Cheltenham which was a creditable effort behind Al Ferof in the Supreme, and the Ryanair is his distance. 20/1 NRFB seems good value to me also with the doubt about so many runners taking part. I have already backed Benefficient for this at 8/1 NRFB.
IMO this horse has been forgotten. |
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I'm leaning towards the Ryanair if Sprinter Sacre takes his chance, but the ground will be a factor - it's important to Baily Green. He stayed on so well the last time it encourages me towards the Ryanair - It was a good run. He needed the outing at Leopardstown before that
Mouse Morris in RP |
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You've convinced me!
On at 25's |
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I've also had a small e/w double with Caid Du Berlais in JLT earlier the same day and also an e/w treble with Clondaw Court in the AB the next day. Place side of the acca pays a lot.
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CV - Clutching at straws. Was there any word on Rathlin from Mouse?
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No word on Rathlin, was just comments from trainers who had horses entered in Champ Chase as it was Pricewise today. Baily was 2nd in Arkle so got a quote outta Mouse.
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Baily Green entered in a two mile handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. An unorthodox prep but in Mouse I trust...
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Yeh,top trainer. No worries there slabster.
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Backed him e/w tomorrow at 5/1, thought it was a fair price. Hopefully he runs well and comes out of it sound anyway with Cheltenham in mind.
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Is he going for this or the CC?
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CC I believe
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Ran a shocker lto albeit over hurdles. His rating there has gone to 129 now!
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I dont understand the last run at all
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