Cheltenham Festival
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Well we’ve had the 2 big key trials for the Gold Cup now and it’s clear the two at the head of the Market deserve their places. Bobs Worth bounced back to form on a track that suits him, left handed galloping tracks are exactly what he needs. He won the Lexus with quite a surprising burst of speed at the end, I had thought he was slower and a strong stayer but he looks to have oodles of class and a top class attitude. All horses can be forgiven a run and it’s easy to just write off that Haydock run completely. He’s rightfully back at the head of the betting for the Gold Cup and will take a world of beating.
Over at Kempton on much softer ground Cue Card gamely tried to front run again, but Sil Conti never let him have any rope and eventually managed to stay on strongly and get by him after the last. It was an impressive performance from the horse. A horse I’ve never managed to warm to and have been critical of, I’ll hold my hands up and say I was impressed and have been wrong about him. Who knows what would have happened had he not fallen in the Gold Cup. But it remains a worry that he’s only ever won on flat tracks and sometimes horses remember falls so although I wouldn’t be overly concerned about him at Cheltenham it’s still worth considering and I’d want a little more in the price to offset that worry.
If I was a Cue Card backer I wouldn’t be as worried as some people are about him being in a Gold Cup. There is a world away from trying to make all end to end around Kempton on soft ground. You never get a chance to fill up like you do coming down the hill at Cheltenham. Also I don’t think he visually emptied. I’d said prior to Kempton that I’m qute sure he is a better horse going left handed and given he’s by Kings theatre he’d prefer better ground. He also has a superb record around Cheltenham and he could be covered up early on before taking it up on the final circuit. I think he’s most certainly a Gold Cup horse and he’ll have to be run and find out on the day if he stays the trip.
Al Ferof was back in 3rd and thoughts of him running in the Ryanair made me a tad confused, he was so damn slow he never got into the race, he jumped left too at times and yet kept plugging on at the end to take 3rd. From my reading of how he ran I’d be running him left handed next and over further than 3 miles. He needs a stamina test and he needs to avoid being outpaced so a switch to a galloping tack like Newbury for the Denman Chase is a good call. If he wins that he’ll surely go for the Gold Cup and if he doesn’t they’ll head for the Ryanair. I think he will be seen at his best in a Gold Cup tbh, whether he’s good enough I don’t know, but Ryanair talk is only there as Nicholls already has his Gold Cup horse. 16/1 nrnb could appear value as should he win the Denman Chase over 3m1f that 16/1 would be long gone and should he lose he’d not run so you could get your money back.
Back to Leopardstown and First Lieutenant again found one better in this race and it was the 3rd time he’s had to look at Bobs Worths behind. First things first with this horse, he is much better going left handed, he’s posted all his worst runs going right handed. Also he’d prefer better ground as he’s by Presenting and it’s no doubt his best has been seen in spring. I’m also totally in the belief he is an out and out stayer, he was outpaced by Bobs worth at the end in this yet he kept on. I think with the injury to Sir Des Champs we’ll finally get to see this horse run at his favourite track over what I believe is his trip, the Gold Cup trip. He’s not as good as Bobs Worth of that I’ve no doubt, but his form is so close to that horse there is every reason to believe he could be next best. This race is falling to pieces a bit and FL has never been unplaced going left handed over 3m+ with his record being 223212 (3 of those defeats to bobs Worth) and his Cheltenham record is 122. Given he’s available non runner no bet at 12/1 he looks to me the e/w banker in this, in all likelihood he’ll be 2nd or 3rd. But if anything were to happen to Bobs Worth before or during the race it could fall into First Lieutenants lap.
Boston Bob is another who could be interesting nrnb at a price of 25/1. It's quite possible that with the injury to Sire Des Champs they might pitch Bob into the Irish Hennessy and see how he aquits himself. Ruby Walsh has no ride in the Gold Cup from what I can see and if Bob runs well he could line up in the Gold cup and there is no chance 25/1 will be available if he does so given the Mullins/Walsh combination.
1pt e/w - First Lieutenant 12/1 nrnb - B365
1pt - Al Ferof 16/1 nrnb - Betfred
1pt e/w Boston Bob 25/1 nrnb - B365
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
Over at Kempton on much softer ground Cue Card gamely tried to front run again, but Sil Conti never let him have any rope and eventually managed to stay on strongly and get by him after the last. It was an impressive performance from the horse. A horse I’ve never managed to warm to and have been critical of, I’ll hold my hands up and say I was impressed and have been wrong about him. Who knows what would have happened had he not fallen in the Gold Cup. But it remains a worry that he’s only ever won on flat tracks and sometimes horses remember falls so although I wouldn’t be overly concerned about him at Cheltenham it’s still worth considering and I’d want a little more in the price to offset that worry.
If I was a Cue Card backer I wouldn’t be as worried as some people are about him being in a Gold Cup. There is a world away from trying to make all end to end around Kempton on soft ground. You never get a chance to fill up like you do coming down the hill at Cheltenham. Also I don’t think he visually emptied. I’d said prior to Kempton that I’m qute sure he is a better horse going left handed and given he’s by Kings theatre he’d prefer better ground. He also has a superb record around Cheltenham and he could be covered up early on before taking it up on the final circuit. I think he’s most certainly a Gold Cup horse and he’ll have to be run and find out on the day if he stays the trip.
Al Ferof was back in 3rd and thoughts of him running in the Ryanair made me a tad confused, he was so damn slow he never got into the race, he jumped left too at times and yet kept plugging on at the end to take 3rd. From my reading of how he ran I’d be running him left handed next and over further than 3 miles. He needs a stamina test and he needs to avoid being outpaced so a switch to a galloping tack like Newbury for the Denman Chase is a good call. If he wins that he’ll surely go for the Gold Cup and if he doesn’t they’ll head for the Ryanair. I think he will be seen at his best in a Gold Cup tbh, whether he’s good enough I don’t know, but Ryanair talk is only there as Nicholls already has his Gold Cup horse. 16/1 nrnb could appear value as should he win the Denman Chase over 3m1f that 16/1 would be long gone and should he lose he’d not run so you could get your money back.
Back to Leopardstown and First Lieutenant again found one better in this race and it was the 3rd time he’s had to look at Bobs Worths behind. First things first with this horse, he is much better going left handed, he’s posted all his worst runs going right handed. Also he’d prefer better ground as he’s by Presenting and it’s no doubt his best has been seen in spring. I’m also totally in the belief he is an out and out stayer, he was outpaced by Bobs worth at the end in this yet he kept on. I think with the injury to Sir Des Champs we’ll finally get to see this horse run at his favourite track over what I believe is his trip, the Gold Cup trip. He’s not as good as Bobs Worth of that I’ve no doubt, but his form is so close to that horse there is every reason to believe he could be next best. This race is falling to pieces a bit and FL has never been unplaced going left handed over 3m+ with his record being 223212 (3 of those defeats to bobs Worth) and his Cheltenham record is 122. Given he’s available non runner no bet at 12/1 he looks to me the e/w banker in this, in all likelihood he’ll be 2nd or 3rd. But if anything were to happen to Bobs Worth before or during the race it could fall into First Lieutenants lap.
Boston Bob is another who could be interesting nrnb at a price of 25/1. It's quite possible that with the injury to Sire Des Champs they might pitch Bob into the Irish Hennessy and see how he aquits himself. Ruby Walsh has no ride in the Gold Cup from what I can see and if Bob runs well he could line up in the Gold cup and there is no chance 25/1 will be available if he does so given the Mullins/Walsh combination.
1pt e/w - First Lieutenant 12/1 nrnb - B365
1pt - Al Ferof 16/1 nrnb - Betfred
1pt e/w Boston Bob 25/1 nrnb - B365
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
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I'd be cautious in assuming Ruby Walsh will ride Willie Mullins trained outsiders; should Paul Nicholls run Silviniaco Conti, Al Ferof and Rocky Creek I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ruby took the ride on Silviniaco, with Daryl Jacob on Al Ferof and Nick Schofield on Rocky Creek, especially as the horse in question, Boston Bob, is owned by the Wiley's who have horses with both yards. Different story perhaps should Rubi Ball take his chance but that's unlikely unless the conditions are extremely testing.
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I couldn't see them jocking off Noel tbh.
I agree with you CV regarding Cue Card. Think he ran another cracker in the George. People say he is a non stayer yet he won the Grade 1 Betfair and ran 2nd in the George running in the low 170's. You don't run to that sort of mark if you do not stay. Cheltenham will suit and the likely small field and undulations should benefit him. |
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Had he of completed and been beaten in last years race I would agree, but given the race make up is likely to mirror that of last years this year I think they'll be keen to replicate in every way possible.
On Cue Card I agree he stays, but he's at his most effective when allowed to bowl along in front, and how many Gold Cup winners have led every yard to the post? He's got his work cut out... |
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There's no way they'll replace Fehily after he won the King George. I can't see Ruby teaming up with Nicholls again unless maybe for Big Bucks.
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Boston Bob is almost surely not going to run, but given it's nrnb it is risk free. If they decided to run him in Irish Hennessy and he won he'd run. But it's a very unlikely scenario.
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Great post CV.
Agree with most of it. In fact I had an e-w on FL at 12s nrnb after I read it. Still not convinced Conti will stay the GC trip and Bob is the horse to beat but no mileage at 9-4, 8 weeks before the event. As for Cue Card, I watched the KG again and he was not "empty" imho. He was just outstayed by a more powerful stayer in SC. He could be in the shake up at the top of the hill. Will he get home though? |
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Yeh, darn good post CV.....again!!
Would not be at all concerned about Conti staying,hes an out and out stayer accorcing to connections and certainly looked one at Kempton.Can lay up with a good pace as well after watching the KG,and cos of that combination hes the most likely winner imo. Cue Card will stay ok imo,and Cheltenham will allow his jockey to get breathers into him, unlike Kempton where they go pretty much flat out all the way. Loves the track and has great form there. I would be worried about taking current prices for Bobsworth with Cue Card bowling along at a fair pace,possible he may get outpaced and he don't want to be getting too far behind Conti for sure.If he CAN keep tabs and is close enough then hes a great chance of winning again, just don't think he will. First Lieutenant is definitely a fair e/w price as he always runs well at the festival,and imo the Gold Cup trip is what he needs now. Al Ferof is a much better horse left handed where all his best runs have been, most of them being at Cheltenham,like Cue Card he loves the place,and it will bring out the best in him imo. Think hes tailor made for a Gold Cup and hes a value bet at the odds imo. Just not sure hes good enough, but he could be. All in all its Conti for me, and I have a feeling we will have the same 1st and 2nd we had in the KG. |
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The thing that kept ringing in my head with regards the King George and Cue Card is that if Ruby was onboard him he would have won. The way he judged the race with Kauto and knew exactly when his horse had enough to get home he kicked for home. It's what you have to do at Kempton as it's a relentless 3 miles. I think the downhill parts of Cheltenham should really suit Cue Card. I also think he should try hold onto him until the final circuit at least.
I'm not a backer, but just think Cue Card is certainly a player in this still. Gut feeling is he'll be outsayed up the hill, but it won't be him emptying or anything, just other horses like Bobs Worth seem to find extra up that hill. |
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I think people are underestimating Bobs Worth when they say he'll be outpaced. He didn't look slow in the Lexus and he beat Rock on Ruby over hurdles. He did appear to be outpaced, but I believe that was more to do with the ground. He's not the biggest so would have to take more strides over a distance than bigger horses. I'm not sure he'll get left behind if we get good to soft this year. I'm not saying he's as quick, but I don't think he's as slow as is made out.
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Budd, i know you feel Bobs will be outpaced, but i don't.
In last years Gold Cup he was certainly struggling for pace at certain times, i admit, but it was his first run since the Hennessy. I think his run with Cue Card as a novice proves he does possess pace. His win over Christmas in the Lexus chase was won by his combination of pace and stamina. They went a crawl for the first 2 miles and really kicked on the last 6f and he had to use his pace to get into a winning position. Comments from jockey after leopardstown; “I think the ground in the Gold Cup was on the softer side for him. He was very much workmanlike in the Gold Cup, whereas in Leopardstown he showed his pace. He's a better horse on better ground and he was able to show his pace here," Geraghty said. "I knew halfway up the run-in he was going to get up." Phil Smith, head of handicapping; In my view he won the Lexus because of his superior speed to his opponents NOT because he outstayed them. He is back on track and ready to defend his unbeaten record at Cheltenham |
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In my view it was clearly an injection of pace which took him past First Lieutenant in the Lexus as that horse was staying on strongly and not relenting. He was just outpaced by Bobs Worth.
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unless Silviniaco Conti jumps badly, difficult to see how Cue Card can beat him over 2 1/2f further than Kempton. Cue Card looks in the One Man / Florida Pearl bracket - 3m is fine, but tank empty after that.
Do Rubi Light / First Lieutenant have genuine claims to being rated within 1-3 lengths of a Gold Cup winner? They managed that in the Lexus, just 8-9 lengths in front of Foildubh. Bob's Worth was nowhere near his best to win in Ireland and have a feeling he's already peaked last season, as game and admirable a horse as he is. Most Gold Cup winners are on the downgrade as soon as they've won it. The field looks pretty thin and if can't have Cue Card / Bob's Worth then can only see Al Ferof of the remainder putting it up to Silviniaco. Al Ferof put in a shocking round of jumping in the King George and his race was over when he jumped badly left at the first, just as Cue Card did the previous year. If he can jump like he did when winning the Paddy Power and stays the trip, has a massive chance and double figure odds are an insult to a very classy horse.... especially if bolts up at Newbury |
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Would be shocked if Cue Card stayed on up that hill to win a Gold Cup personally and remains very poor value at 8-1.
Would need to pass Bobs Worth Silviniaco Conti First Lieutenant Al Ferof to name but 4. These will all stay and the top 2 are better horses than Cue Card at the moment over 3m +. Was beaten convincingly when push came to shove in the King George and over 2.5f more Sivi wouldve won by double at least. |
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Well he was not going away at the end,distance was much the same all the way up the run in.
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Lat years race had Long Run heading the field and Bob got outpaced a tad ,this year it will be Cue Card I imagine. World of difference in speed between them 2, that I know.
Still if its just a case of the ground then maybe Bob will be ok, we shall see. I don't like to be unfair on a champion, and if I am wrong and he wins then fair do's. That's my personal point of view re Bob in this years race,thats all. If the ground is as the Jockey prefers then Im in a good position to have Bob on my side if I am wrong, with conti at 40, Cue Card at 25, and Al Ferof at nice prices on here plus a slice of nrfb. Fascinating race anyway. |
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Bally,
Cue Card wont be passing any horse up the run in,he will be in front. Its a case of who gets past him. |
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good luck with ya bets ,don't think they are going to be giving cue card an easy lead a la haydock up front in the gold cup ,the cat is out of the bag as in the k. George ,I think he will pressed up front if he leads ,if they try to hold him up it could still affect his chance as he is keen and and as we saw in his first king George run trying to reign him in gets him out of a rhythm and he made mistakes and he could well be pulling tizzs arms out in behind early in the race , and if he is still in contention after 3 miles there is the small matter of the hill to climb,. they are the worries for me regarding cue card , could he go ryanaire ?
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Buddelia......Silviniaco Conti will just breeze past Cue Card round the turn at Cheltenham laughing at him. Cruised past in a matter of strides in the King George and that was that. Would've won further over another couple of furlongs and if you don't think that then erm right ok fair enough but many do. Bobs Worth would saunter past as well up the run in.
Don't base all your analysis on the Betfair Chase where everyone thought Cue Card would come back to them. He'd had a run, the main players hadn't and they got caught out. Cue Card ain't no Denman who was a bulldozer. No way he makes all in a Gold Cup. Be stupid even to try. |
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Maybe Bally....maybe not.
My analysis is based on the Fact that Cue Card is more happy bowling along at a pace he likes and is comfortable with. Also the fact that Cheltenham is a total different course to Kempton and does allow for a horse to get a breather thus helping to conserve energy. No way he wont be leading,whether you think it stupid or not,they have found that it brings the best out of him and they wont change that whatever the distance..imo. Its why I fancy Conti,he has proved he can lay up just off Cue Card,i don't think Bob will be able to. Therefore as Conti stays well,i think he will be in front of Bob and stay there.And I think he will repeat his form with Cue Card as I think hes simply a better horse for the Gold Cup. Cue Card may stay in front,its possible,hes certainly gonna get a lot in a spot of bother, and it would not be a total surprise if he won easily, not to me anyway.....if he proves he can stay the distance well. |
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Does it worry Slvi supporters that he fell in this race last year? I think Cue Card will have them going at a quick pace
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My 3 against the field are First Lieutenant, completely agree with CV that he isn't as good as Bobsworth, but I refuse to back horses for back to back Gold Cup wins and FL isn't that far behind compared to the prices and is a great EW bet. Dynaste has had 1 bad run and looks good value if you ignore the KG. Still needs to improve but I don't think it's impossible. My left field horse is Vino Griego. I Doubt that if I'm being honest I think he'll win it, but I can see him running a big race for a long way and maybe grabbing a place. He's been steadily improving over the last couple of seasons and murdered Rolling Aces and Harry Topper last time and course form is ok when he stands up but that could be the problem. I think he's down to race at Chelt on trials day and I'll know if I have a sniff. On at daft odds on here win and place and will be fun if he turns up in March.
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Good to see Pricewise went for Al Ferof too.
Also Mullins said in RP that they hadn't yet decided if Boston Bob stays over hurdles or goes for Gold Cup. So could be milage in two of those non runner no bet selections. |
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Why is it good that Pricewise went for it CV? Do you rate him? Think there are guys on here worth listening to more than him personally.
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tbh his antepost record at Cheltenham is pretty poor.
But I do remember he tipped up Synchronised so can't see the harm in him agreeing with me on Al Ferof. Also his overall tipping record in general is good. Look at it this way, it ain't a negative |
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I tipped up Synchronised too to all my mates lol.14/1 boom. Seriously though I'm unfussed whether I'm in agreement with him. Like your posts btw...checked out your website.do you bet for a living?
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Pricewise is likely still in antepost profit from the time he tipped Star De Mohaison at 40/1. He's had a few since then also. His record across all platforms is phenomenal. Ridiculous how he doesnt get the credit he deserves from some
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Tom Segal is great, but he's Pricewise, he looks for value in the race ahead of who he might fancy to win. Al Ferof was an obvious choice because should he bolt up in the Denman Chase at Newbury he'll half in price. On the flip side, if he's pick up on the run in he won't turn up. Am I right in thinking he put up Kauto Star Ante Post in 2012 and then Syncronised on the day? Syncronised wasn't an Ante Post pick.
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Who cares about flat racing.
Show me he is in profit for jumps racing selections and i will change my mind. 40/1 SDM,some people would have had an eye on that and then BANG he **** it all up |
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Pricewise is excellent on the day of meetings. Can't see many of us arguing that. However, AP bets are far from good and will lead a lot down the garden path.
Prefer to work it out myself and live and die by the results. Each to their own though. |
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He put up Captain Chris Ante Post for the Gold Cup which looking back is strange because he tipped Synchronised to win The Lexus
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Ballydoyle
Date Joined: 23 Feb 02 I tipped up Synchronised too to all my mates lol.14/1 boom. Seriously though I'm unfussed whether I'm in agreement with him. Like your posts btw...checked out your website.do you bet for a living? Yeah I'd agree, I back my own opinion and wouldn't be too fussed if others are in agreement as it's served me well. Thanks for the comments on my site. I don't bet for a living - I work as a consultant in Quantitative Finance in London - but in recent years betting has been a consistent added income. Jumps racing is just a passion and so I started the site. |
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Cool.good luck to you.
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CVByrne - I've just read the Champion Hurdle preview from the link you've supplied in your opening post where it states...
"His rivals are all National Hunt Bred and always lack that proper gear change that flat bred horses have, it’s not a coincidence 6/7 Champion Hurdle winners have been flat bred since the drainage improvements to the track." My Tent Or Yours is very much flat bred. By Desert Prince. |
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He started life in bumpers ie NH hunt bred
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MTOY may have started life in bumpers but he is Flat-bred (and very stoutly-bred). Of course, that he was not considered good enough to run on the Flat might not be a plus-point.
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Jasey, it doesn't work like that...
It's like saying you're born in London, but you went to school up North so you're a northerner! He's flat bred. |
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Desert Prince was a miler; won the Irish 2000 Guineas and the QEII in '98.
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Jesus was born in na stable did that make him a horse?
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dwm - Yes that was my mistake, MTOY is flat bred. I'll reply over in the Hurricane Fly thread so as to keep this one on topic.
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