Cheltenham Festival
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An honest look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Current Betting - 3rd January 2014
1. Bobs Worth 9/4
2. Silviniaco Conti 7/2
3. Cue Card 8/1
4. First Lieutenant 14/1
5. Al Ferof 25/1
6. Boston Bob 25/1
7. Dynaste 33/1
8. Lord Windermere 33/1
9. Rubi Ball 33/1
10. Long Run 40/1
Straight away you can see how weak this years Gold Cup will be. I have never seen so few protagonists for the Blue Riband of jump-racing. There is only 1 horse who will take on Bobs Worth who also ran in the 2013 Gold Cup and he was a faller, Silviniaco Conti.
Long Run 40/1
Henderson has intimated that Long Run will be kept fresh for the Grand National. At 40/1 he is a doubtful runner and it seems that this french bred is beginning to regress following a tough campaign as a 4/5/6 year old. With only 1 win in eight and form figures of 5-4-U, it is difficult to see him making an impact.
Rubi Ball 33/1
Ran a great race in the Lexus but Willie Mullins has stressed his need for soft ground. Having never ran on faster than soft, small fields in proper winter ground would appear to be the right conditions for Rubi Ball. No doubt the Irish Hennessy will be the next port of call. Punchestown Gold Cup in April would be the next logical step if the ground is right.
Lord Windermere 33/1
The form of his RSA win has done little to help Lord Winermere and he has shown no form all season. There appears to be no excuse with his run in the Lexus and if he lines up and runs a similar race in the Irish Hennessy he will not be going to Prestbury Park this season. Recent form makes it hard to make a case for him.
Dynaste 33/1
Last run and subsequent comments from David Pipe leave a lot to be desired. Again recent form and injury doubt makes the grey very unattractive.
"Tom Scudamore was never really happy and he was one of the first beaten, eventually coming home in fifth place.
"The next morning he was sore behind. He has had treatment from Mary Bromiley (renowned veterinary physiotherapist) and will continue to do so.
"We will wait for him to come right again before looking further ahead."
Boston Bob 25/1
Will be kept over hurdles this season and is aimed at the World Hurdle.
Al Ferof 25/1
This is a very interesting horse. Looking at his last run in the King George you would even strike a line through him, however if you take a closer look at his profile it makes for interesting reading.
It's his run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup under a near on top weight was impressive and what was most important was how he finished his race. Out of the 19 runners there were only 6 finishers in this soft/heavy ground. Al Ferof was the only horse that powered up that hill and like his breeding looked a proper stayer in the making.
His run in the King George was disappointing, no other way to describe it and Nicholls will try him over 3m in the Denman Chase next month. If he stays well and wins this race, he is a lively outsider. Most Gold Cup horses need a bit of speed up their sleeves and this horse will have it. If he doesn't stay, the Ryanair will be the race and he would have a favourites chance.
First Lieutenant 12/1
A horse that has only been out of the top 3 in 20 of his 24 races he form reading of 1-2-2 at the Cheltenham Festival he comes into the Gold Cup picture after a great comback run in the Lexus Chase on ground softer than ideal.
His form is in the book and arguably his three best runs of his career have all come at Cheltenham and trainer Mouse Morris is well known to have his horses cherry ripe on the day that matters.
With the same connections of the last Irish winner of the Gold Cup, First Lietnenant's admirable attitude, consistent form, conditions set to be ideal and with Bryan Cooper on board, FL must be on any each-way shortlist for this years Festival.
Cue Card - 8/1
Given the real trip of the Betfair Chase (course was run over less than 3miles rather than the advertised 3m1f, times of races confirm this) and his rather scary last furlong in the King George I would find it very difficult to think 7/2 is value. His style of running over this trip will be stamina sapping and as his is known to bang through the odd fence you just can't see him staying in this race.
Silvianco Conti 2/1
Good comeback run in the Betfair and a nice battling performance in the King George over a track that suits him. His crashing fall in last seasons Gold Cup is always a worry as some horse don't forget these experiences. Nicholls has mentioned in the past that flatter tracks might be more suited to him, even still he has a great chance in an open Gold Cup but at 7/2 you don't have the insurance of an each-way bet. Tough to see him finish ahead of Bobs Worth.
Bobs Worth 9/4
Nothing more I could say other than he's an incredibly likeable horse, unbeaten at Cheltenham and this proper stayer has all the form in the book and deserves to be the short priced favourite.
His win in the Lexus on ground less than ideal and a trip still a bit short was incredible but to put that performance in after such an abject running in the Betfair Chase makes it even more impressive.
He won the Lexus even though the race was not run to suit. Barry Geraghty has said recently that he won using his speed rather than the general public thinking he just stayed on past tired horses after the final fence.
We were stalking the leaders from two out and I knew he had the pace because that’s what won him the race. The two in front quickened and we quickened with them and then my lad could quicken again to seal it, speed and class won it.
Hard to find much chink in his armour and a nice break from now till March will be perfect for him.
Conclusions
Of the ten runners, the first four in the betting will all most likely go straight to the festival.
1. Bobs Worth - straight to festival
2. Silviniaco Conti 7/2 - straight to festival
3. Cue Card 8/1 - not any options and after 3 tough runs a rest is till March most likely.
4. First Lieutenant 14/1 - straight to festival (Hennessy ruled out after Sir Des Champs injury)
With the possibility of all of the other six in the betting being ruled out or switched to another race which will allow bookies to shorten their prices.
5. Al Ferof 25/1 - possibly Ryanair, pending Denman Chase run
6. Boston Bob 25/1 - hurdles this season.
7. Dynaste 33/1 - injured, no update.
8. Lord Windermere 33/1 - poor form, Hennessy the decider.
9. Rubi Ball 33/1 - needs soft ground Mullins confirmed.
10. Long Run 40/1 - possible for Grand National
It’s amazing when you break it down like this, it could be one of the most smallest fields ever assembled for the Gold Cup. A NRNB each way bet at this stage would be the more prudent approach.
Bobs Worth is the best horse in the race but at the prices the one horse that sticks out is First Lieutenant. Everything is set up perfectly for this son of Presenting.
War of Attrition was by Presenting, owned and trained by the same connections and his form is there in the book. Bobs Worth has had his measure and I am not saying that First Lieutenant will finish ahead of him but at the current prices you are getting a bigger price with First Lieutenant on the place market than Bobs Worth on the win only market. (9/4 vs 7/2)
Mouse Morris mentioned that even the trip at Leopardstown was a bit sharp and with a nice rest, on his favoured trip, spring ground and this proper trip will be right up FL sleeve.
Anything can happen in a race and given his record of 20/24 top three finished and a form line of 1-2-2 it is difficult to see him finishing out of the top three come March 14th.
If there are only 7/6 runners in the race and Cue Card a possibly non stayer he will only have to beat a few horses to ensure you get paid. I think it’s an absolute cracking each way bet.
At a bigger price, if Al Ferof wins the Denman going away the 25/1 will look very big. NRNB would be the way to go as if he doesn’t win the Denman he will most likely go to the Ryanair and you’ll get your stake back.
Comments welcome.
Nick
Current Betting - 3rd January 2014
1. Bobs Worth 9/4
2. Silviniaco Conti 7/2
3. Cue Card 8/1
4. First Lieutenant 14/1
5. Al Ferof 25/1
6. Boston Bob 25/1
7. Dynaste 33/1
8. Lord Windermere 33/1
9. Rubi Ball 33/1
10. Long Run 40/1
Straight away you can see how weak this years Gold Cup will be. I have never seen so few protagonists for the Blue Riband of jump-racing. There is only 1 horse who will take on Bobs Worth who also ran in the 2013 Gold Cup and he was a faller, Silviniaco Conti.
Long Run 40/1
Henderson has intimated that Long Run will be kept fresh for the Grand National. At 40/1 he is a doubtful runner and it seems that this french bred is beginning to regress following a tough campaign as a 4/5/6 year old. With only 1 win in eight and form figures of 5-4-U, it is difficult to see him making an impact.
Rubi Ball 33/1
Ran a great race in the Lexus but Willie Mullins has stressed his need for soft ground. Having never ran on faster than soft, small fields in proper winter ground would appear to be the right conditions for Rubi Ball. No doubt the Irish Hennessy will be the next port of call. Punchestown Gold Cup in April would be the next logical step if the ground is right.
Lord Windermere 33/1
The form of his RSA win has done little to help Lord Winermere and he has shown no form all season. There appears to be no excuse with his run in the Lexus and if he lines up and runs a similar race in the Irish Hennessy he will not be going to Prestbury Park this season. Recent form makes it hard to make a case for him.
Dynaste 33/1
Last run and subsequent comments from David Pipe leave a lot to be desired. Again recent form and injury doubt makes the grey very unattractive.
"Tom Scudamore was never really happy and he was one of the first beaten, eventually coming home in fifth place.
"The next morning he was sore behind. He has had treatment from Mary Bromiley (renowned veterinary physiotherapist) and will continue to do so.
"We will wait for him to come right again before looking further ahead."
Boston Bob 25/1
Will be kept over hurdles this season and is aimed at the World Hurdle.
Al Ferof 25/1
This is a very interesting horse. Looking at his last run in the King George you would even strike a line through him, however if you take a closer look at his profile it makes for interesting reading.
It's his run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup under a near on top weight was impressive and what was most important was how he finished his race. Out of the 19 runners there were only 6 finishers in this soft/heavy ground. Al Ferof was the only horse that powered up that hill and like his breeding looked a proper stayer in the making.
His run in the King George was disappointing, no other way to describe it and Nicholls will try him over 3m in the Denman Chase next month. If he stays well and wins this race, he is a lively outsider. Most Gold Cup horses need a bit of speed up their sleeves and this horse will have it. If he doesn't stay, the Ryanair will be the race and he would have a favourites chance.
First Lieutenant 12/1
A horse that has only been out of the top 3 in 20 of his 24 races he form reading of 1-2-2 at the Cheltenham Festival he comes into the Gold Cup picture after a great comback run in the Lexus Chase on ground softer than ideal.
His form is in the book and arguably his three best runs of his career have all come at Cheltenham and trainer Mouse Morris is well known to have his horses cherry ripe on the day that matters.
With the same connections of the last Irish winner of the Gold Cup, First Lietnenant's admirable attitude, consistent form, conditions set to be ideal and with Bryan Cooper on board, FL must be on any each-way shortlist for this years Festival.
Cue Card - 8/1
Given the real trip of the Betfair Chase (course was run over less than 3miles rather than the advertised 3m1f, times of races confirm this) and his rather scary last furlong in the King George I would find it very difficult to think 7/2 is value. His style of running over this trip will be stamina sapping and as his is known to bang through the odd fence you just can't see him staying in this race.
Silvianco Conti 2/1
Good comeback run in the Betfair and a nice battling performance in the King George over a track that suits him. His crashing fall in last seasons Gold Cup is always a worry as some horse don't forget these experiences. Nicholls has mentioned in the past that flatter tracks might be more suited to him, even still he has a great chance in an open Gold Cup but at 7/2 you don't have the insurance of an each-way bet. Tough to see him finish ahead of Bobs Worth.
Bobs Worth 9/4
Nothing more I could say other than he's an incredibly likeable horse, unbeaten at Cheltenham and this proper stayer has all the form in the book and deserves to be the short priced favourite.
His win in the Lexus on ground less than ideal and a trip still a bit short was incredible but to put that performance in after such an abject running in the Betfair Chase makes it even more impressive.
He won the Lexus even though the race was not run to suit. Barry Geraghty has said recently that he won using his speed rather than the general public thinking he just stayed on past tired horses after the final fence.
We were stalking the leaders from two out and I knew he had the pace because that’s what won him the race. The two in front quickened and we quickened with them and then my lad could quicken again to seal it, speed and class won it.
Hard to find much chink in his armour and a nice break from now till March will be perfect for him.
Conclusions
Of the ten runners, the first four in the betting will all most likely go straight to the festival.
1. Bobs Worth - straight to festival
2. Silviniaco Conti 7/2 - straight to festival
3. Cue Card 8/1 - not any options and after 3 tough runs a rest is till March most likely.
4. First Lieutenant 14/1 - straight to festival (Hennessy ruled out after Sir Des Champs injury)
With the possibility of all of the other six in the betting being ruled out or switched to another race which will allow bookies to shorten their prices.
5. Al Ferof 25/1 - possibly Ryanair, pending Denman Chase run
6. Boston Bob 25/1 - hurdles this season.
7. Dynaste 33/1 - injured, no update.
8. Lord Windermere 33/1 - poor form, Hennessy the decider.
9. Rubi Ball 33/1 - needs soft ground Mullins confirmed.
10. Long Run 40/1 - possible for Grand National
It’s amazing when you break it down like this, it could be one of the most smallest fields ever assembled for the Gold Cup. A NRNB each way bet at this stage would be the more prudent approach.
Bobs Worth is the best horse in the race but at the prices the one horse that sticks out is First Lieutenant. Everything is set up perfectly for this son of Presenting.
War of Attrition was by Presenting, owned and trained by the same connections and his form is there in the book. Bobs Worth has had his measure and I am not saying that First Lieutenant will finish ahead of him but at the current prices you are getting a bigger price with First Lieutenant on the place market than Bobs Worth on the win only market. (9/4 vs 7/2)
Mouse Morris mentioned that even the trip at Leopardstown was a bit sharp and with a nice rest, on his favoured trip, spring ground and this proper trip will be right up FL sleeve.
Anything can happen in a race and given his record of 20/24 top three finished and a form line of 1-2-2 it is difficult to see him finishing out of the top three come March 14th.
If there are only 7/6 runners in the race and Cue Card a possibly non stayer he will only have to beat a few horses to ensure you get paid. I think it’s an absolute cracking each way bet.
At a bigger price, if Al Ferof wins the Denman going away the 25/1 will look very big. NRNB would be the way to go as if he doesn’t win the Denman he will most likely go to the Ryanair and you’ll get your stake back.
Comments welcome.
Nick
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Three horse race between BW CC SC for me.
FL. will run well without winning |
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Good write up.
Cue Card has more chance in the Epsom Derby than staying the Gold Cup trip. |
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Indeed a good write up.
Personally think with Cue Card up front Bob may well struggle to keep in a position to be able to use his stamina at the business end.Last year Long Run made the pace and hes nowhere near the speed of Cue Card -different gravy as they say. Think Cue Card will stay ok, he has done so far in his races,yes he has another 2 furlongs,but its purely guesswork about him not staying. Think Sconti was going the best when he fell last year,and must have gone close at the least. This year he will go in to the race with the best form imo,and has proved he can go a good pace and stay very well. Likeliest winner imo. If Al Ferof runs well at Newbury I expect him to run,and if he produces his best in March(IF!!)then hes a very lively outsider. |
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Really good write up and assessment. Thanks. Highlights the lack of depth in the race. The front two in the market look good for two of the first three places assuming they don't fall. That leaves the search for a value bet for third place. At the moment I would go with Al Ferof. If he trots up in Denman Chase I assume he will to the Gold Cup or why are they bothering with the Denman Chase. PFN uses this race as a Gold Cup trial for his horses most years.
Will First Lieutenant run in Gold Cup ? Would O'Leary prefer to win the race he sponsors the Ryanair or have a runner in the Gold Cup. I think FL has a great chance to win the Ryanair and a slim to none chance of winning the Gold Cup. |
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Added bit of data. Just spotted Paul Nicholls has won 8 of last 13 Denman Chases……Al Ferof at 25/1 EW looks a decent option for a Gold Cup bet.
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yes hayling and his best runs have been at Cheltenham and when going left handed ,one of the few who could improve massively in the conditions the gold cup demands 25s nrfb is tempted .
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He's not 25/1 nrfb...he is 16-1. where is 25/1?
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In fact according to oddschecker has never been 25-1 nrfb.
He is 25-1 only with 888888 who will aceept 2 pounds 79 pence at that price. No NRNB or NRFB 16-1 if you want the NRNB/NRFB |
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If anyone thinks Cue Card can stay 2.5f further on a more demanding track after seeing that King George final 2f run then good luck to them I say.
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Course he can till proved different.The KG proved nothing as far as him staying,as he stayed that day.
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Bollocks.
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Honestly. That is bollocks.
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Charming!!
 So prove he didn't,and prove he just didn't get beat by a better horse on the day. |
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Silviniaco Conti just swooped past...and if it was over the Gold Cup trip Cue Card wouldve been beat 15 lengths. Your beloved Al Ferof wouldve caught him. Bobs Worth would do the same....the horse races too freely to get 3m 2.5f up that hill. Simples.
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« 1 Silviniaco Conti (FR) 7/2 7 11-10 Paul Nicholls 173 * *
Noel Fehily Mostly tracked leader, ridden 3 out, stayed on powerfully from 2 out to lead before last where good jump, driven clear (op 4/1 tchd 9/2 and 5/1 in a place) « 2 3½ Cue Card 100/30J 7 11-10 Colin Tizzard 174 * * Joe Tizzard Led at good pace, going strongly from 4 out, at least 2 lengths clear 2 out, faltered and headed before last, one pace (op 7/2) |
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Watch it again,he aint stopping at the end.
Hes got beaten by a horse that imo will win the Gold Cup and could well have won it last year as well. At Cheltenham he will dictate the pace and be able to get breathers into him if necessary. Stayed 3m1f at Haydock going away. To put it simply, as you like to do,he just got beat by a better horse. |
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Won at Haydock beating unfit horses. He's went from beating SC 5 lengths there to getting beat 5 lengths in the King George. SC just whizzed by him at Kempton in a matter of strides as will Bobs Worth at Cheltenham. No chance he beats these two man. None.
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King George finish coming up on Racing UK....lets have another gander...
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He proved he stays though.
Its of course possible he don't stay as well as others, certainly Bob is more of a staying type,i think SC is as well. As for the race,i maintain that Bob wont be able to keep close enough to CC,SC will. That's why I think SC will win the race,and Bob may or may not catch CC,Just depends how outpaced he is.He got a tad outpaced last year with Long Run up front!!! |
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Got to remember Al Ferof is a handicapper
 and Mount Benbulben is rubbish. Long Run's jockey fell off and so Cue Card didnt have much to beat to tread water for 2nd. |
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Where is 25/1 Al Ferof NRNB by the way?
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Same distance between winner and 2nd from the last to the post.
So no treading water involved. Undulations of Cheltenham will allow him to get breathers. Nevison needs to learn a bit more about the difference between running at Kempton more or less full pelt without a breather,and running at Cheltenham. Hes probably not the only one though!! |
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No idea,did I say he was 25nrfb???
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The original poster...
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Alas, we can debate all day but would be surprised if the winner didn't come from SC BW or FL.
Have a good day. Racing crap today so it's time for a few pints. |
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Yeh,no worries.
Enjoy your beer. On the wagon for a month,and I aint looking forward to it!!! |
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Oh ffs!! I've got a broken ankle at mo and in cast since 29th November until next Monday...so I'll have a few...fall over then probably break the other
 He who dares Rodders... |
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I got a score on e/w with 888 at 25,s for AF
im happy with that not bothered with the nrnb offers as think he will line up and those odds are just too too big |
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just a point about bobs worth hendo keeps saying I just want to get him and sprinter sacre to the festival ,we all know bobs has had problems just a few runs per season shows he is not easy to keep sound ,on the back
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Where have you heard Al Ferof goes to Newbury?
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Where have you heard Al Ferof goes to Newbury?
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First off, our King George winner Silviniaco Conti will almost certainly go straight to the Gold Cup. Kempton third Al Ferof will take in the Denman Chase at Newbury next month before we decide whether to go down the Ryanair or Gold Cup route with him.
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Cheers Alleged.
Hasn't the speed for either Festival race imo |
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no probs BOTR
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Rubi Ball OFTS leaving Ruby riderless. Wonder if this will change PFNs decision not to run Tidal Bay, particularly if he runs well this w/end.
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