Cheltenham Festival
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14 Dec 13
13:56
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03 Jun 07
Such a slick hurdler. istabraq-esk
Hasnt beat much but their is much to like, 3mile hurdle at the festival ?
Hasnt beat much but their is much to like, 3mile hurdle at the festival ?
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I can't even see him in the betting for the Neptune, so must be the Albert Bartlett for the festival. Very impressive jumping for a novice. 7/1 available with Boyles.
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Very pleasing performance. Punted like a good thing and he duly obliged.
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massively impressed today by this horse. very slick hurdling and just kept going and going. Going in antepost.
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Particularly impressive given the awful form of the Pipe team at the moment.
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Deeply impressive in my opinion
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saw his debut at plumpton and felt then he was a star of the future,yesterday he left the opposition legless yet still came back a fresh horse.
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a relentless galloper cant wait to see him jump a fence could be the next denman the way he goes and attacks the obstacles great to watch and deff a bet for me for festival
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a relentless galloper cant wait to see him jump a fence could be the next denman the way he goes and attacks the obstacles great to watch and deff a bet for me for festival
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Certainly very impressive visually - pops a hurdle as good as anything I've seen for a while. I think we'd better reserve judgement about these lofty comparisons at this stage there. It seems that he hasn't beaten a great deal thus far and this time last year, there were similar plaudits for Coneygree having won the same race. Kaki De La Pree winning at Carlisle today would be a nice little boost to his form though.
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kaki
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Consider it boosted!
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Creepy & Monbeg Dude not enough of a form boost then
 Beat those 2 standing on his head. |
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the horse who creepy beat at chelt latest timeisrememberd also won yest
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where ?
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Think chief dan might be having a hard time remembering
 Understandable name mix up though. |
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Kings Palace
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Lovely prospect for sure but hopefully the hype machine goes into overdrive and he'll be another really short novice hurdle fav to lay at the Festival.
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Looking back at the historic Albert Bartlett pre-Festival ratings in prior years, and also the ratings at the Festival itself, then KINGS ROAD is already good enough to win an average or better version, jumps fluently and is a dual course and distance winner.
Last years winner was 156 RPR before the Festival and 156 RPR to beat African Gold and Inish Island in March, KINGS ROAD is 154 already. Nothings for certain with Ante-Post, and 5/1 now for March looks skinny enough, but he will line up already good enough to win, and any improvement on the day would be very hard to match or beat. |
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I would not get carried away too much with RPR or OR figures as they are far from the be all and end all of everything - if they were then the people producing them would certainly not be working for newspapers or the BHA. Of course Kings Palace was impressive and is a worthy favourite but if he wins it wont be because the RP gave him a particular rating.
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^^^^^what does this mean^^^
fox was merely making a point the point he was making, was about class and it's relevance to, the said race WAC |
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A long way to go...5/1 is short. The next month or two will see who he has actually beat.
The only ratings I take notice of are handicap ratings and what goes up or down. Timeform ratings RPR etc...to me are meaningless to be honest. Just have to look at how crap the Timeform jury is to see that. You would think after all the manure talked beforehand about Tent in the Supreme and RPR ratings etc that these boys would finally have learned their lesson but they never will. Sure Mullins has something up his sleeve for this |
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The only ratings I take notice of are handicap ratings and what goes up or down.
so just explain how you read form ballydoyle???? it doesn't matter what you think of rpr or timeform ratings just tell us your clever way your spat tells us plenty about you but still interested how you read form ie what happens with you, if the handicapper hasn't yet rated a horse? how does your up and down work??? |
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I am not wedded to ratings of any sort RPR, Timeform, OR etc, they can be useful in narrowing down options (apart from those unexposed so far to quality races), and I wouldn't take them as pound for pound accurate, but KINGS ROAD is there or thereabouts good enough already to win the Albert Bartlett, the visuals twice C&D tells you that, as well as the size and scope of the horse.
I have taken 20's and 16s for the race after his CD win in October, so no need for 5/1 punt on this. My point is that this Albert Bartlett is a race won by good quality horses, but the field generally isn't deep on quality, and therefore maybe only 2 or 3 will be capable on the day of doing what KINGS ROAD has done already. Those 2 or 3 may not include KINGS ROAD, he may blow-out, but if he runs to form, scope, etc, then it will take a very good performance, probably by an Irish/Mullins runner to perform past 154 RPR, and win. |
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Hi Harry,in no particular order :
1 - Volume of money tells me who's fancied and who's not ie the blues and pinks of oddschecker for example as well as comparing the odds with the oddschecker bookies with what is offered on betfair. Would use this for novice races also as obv no ratings 2 - Trainer trends. For example, Anthony Honeyball's novice hurdlers I wouldn't dream of backing but let me at his bumper, handicap hurdlers and chase runners. I have a database of trainers who operate well at certain tracks, certain levels etc and they do me nicely. Certain trainers and certain jockeys are awesome at certain tracks - G Baker at Wolves springs to mind. Very good jockey on the all weather but especially round there. Certain trainers dynamite at landing a touch and some simply are not. 3 - Look for horses coming down the handicap ready to strike ie it might have won at Ludlow over 3 miles and achieved a rating of 124 then got beat next 4 times off higher marks over different distances, different grounds etc then 8 months on or whatever it's back down to a winning mark and check if there is cash for it. Diocoles today at Catterick was a standout at 4/1 against the opposition. Chase mark very favourable. Chance Du Roy was the best bet of the month in the Becher. Go look at his record then look at what he was racing off that day. 20/1 he was in the morning. 4 - Get on early ie the night before like 5pm to 7pm when the markets come up and see where the cash is going. 5 - Trends at Cheltenham hold up year after year. The RSA, Neptune, Albert Bartlett, Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup are very very favourable trends races especially the first two. 6 - use the signposts in the racing post. see who's got a tongue tie/blinkers/visor on for first time. is their trainer any good with them? Poor? Is there a short priced favourite wearing first time blinkers that is ready to be nabbed by one of the field? 7 - bet win only up to 9/1 and each way 10/1 + 8 - Sire trends esp at Southwell. Shamardals and Dubawis deadly here. 9 - Is the trainer in form? Ok seeing 1-24 on say the racing post but has he had 10 placed in that 24? etc If Timeform and RPR ratings were the be all and end all we would all be having our accounts limited and best odds guarantees go south. I used to be a Timeform worshipper esp perspective which is good for highlighting future winners but found the ratings weren't that effective. I've never ever paid attantion to RPR ratings. A quick look at how poor pricewise extra as well as the likes of Birch, Haigh, Freemantle do whilst quoting RPRs tells you all you need to know. A horse could achieve its best rating over 2m on a sharp track on firm ground then be top rated for a 2m 4f heavy ground on a galloping track. Ratings are useless here in my opinion. I much prefer horses with 3s 4s and 5s in last run or three compared to 1s as the 1s go up in the handicap whilst the 3s 4s and 5s usually come down. First start of the day is to oppose last time out winners. For instance, King Massini at Ludlow is vulnerable for me tomorrow. It's all about opinions as to how we do things but I spend no more than 3/4 hours a day picking them out. I dont understand people that say you need to spend 12 hours a day watching videos etc. Good luck to you anyway |
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Nothing wrong with 20-1 16-1 Kings PALACE
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Nothing wrong with 20-1 16-1 Kings PALACE
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I spend no more than 3/4 hours a day picking them out
about 10 mins me   |
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that is fair enough ballydoyle but although i am not a follower of either as prefer my own, you should still respect those that do...
each to there own imo |
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reading through again ballydoyle it is very basic stuff tbf but clearly works for you...
points 2/9 'your database' in regards trainers in form goes against your last point in regards kings massini today...the trainer at ludlow this season has been mustard and been in very good form... i suppose when you want to take on last time out winners who are progressive, like this one, you are leaving yourself open in regards, a negative mind set to the said horse very ambiguous post but like you say in regards chance du roy and the other winner at catterick, it clearly works for you |
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The Albert Bartlett is a two horse race, reminds me of Boston Bob v Brindisi Breeze
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Hi Harry, I took King Massini on today because it was only 5 days on from what I thought a hard race at Cheltenham. I've had this horse in the bag when he was gambled on the 25th November but since then his progression has been better than I expected. Yes, Evan Williams runners always to be respected at Ludlow especially when the money is down. Zarzal rings a bell too at a gambled on 4-1.
Anyway, this is an Albert Bartlett thread and someone has just reminded me of Boston Bob who got done by Brindisi Breeze  . Fancy Briar Hill is the equaivalent of Boston Bob, in fact think they are related? |
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Same dam.
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Fancy Briar Hill is the equaivalent of Boston Bob, in fact think they are related?
May be related some way down the dam lines but Boston Bob is out of a Le Bavard mare and Briar Hill a Bob Back mare. The fact that Boston Bob is by Bob Back is of little relevance in this regard. |
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Backaway and Bavaway are different broodmares!!
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Mullins himself indicated that the Neptune or Albert Bartlett were more likely targets this season for Briar Hill than the Supreme Novices'.
He said: "It was a tactical race and we weren't sure if Azorian would jump off in front or drop in. Our fella proved in Wexford that he was able to jump in front. "He's a lovely relaxed individual and he stays. He could go out to three miles if we want. I'd imagine we'll be looking at two and a half miles or longer. He seems to have loads of stamina. "Christmas might come a bit too soon and we could possibly look at the Slaney Hurdle at Naas in January. "He's closely related to Boston Bob. Last year he showed nothing at home but this year he's showing at home what he's doing on the track." |
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Same grand dam? They are certainly not out of the same mare, unless the Racing Post records are incorrect.
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Apologies I had it wrong there but Bavaway the dam of Boston Bob is also the dam of Backaway who in turn is the dam of Briar Hill. Hope I have it right this time!
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Bob Monkhouse.
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