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The Gold Cup
Key Winter Trials
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
First things first, nearly every year people rate the previous seasons Gold Cup form as the single most important piece of form with regards to who will win the race that season. Despite Best Mate being the only horse in modern times to ever win it back to back we see year after year the Gold Cup winner installed as a short priced antepost favourite for the next seasons race.
It is claimed and the evidence supports it that often a Gold Cup takes so much out of a horse it’s impossible for them to ever reach those heights again. The exception in recent years is Kauto Star but he was a freak who’s unbelievable toughness was probably his most amazing talent. Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run all posted career best runs to win the race, form they never reached again. Could it be the same for Bobs Worth? Whatever the individual cases for each horse you’re never going to win money long term sticking with the Gold Cup winner.
Year after year the best guide to finding the winner is the King George or the Lexus chase, the two big mid season chases where the best of Ireland and England line up against each other. From 2002 until 2012 every Gold cup winner ran in one of those races. The only other race that can feature as a trial is the Hennessy, if an RSA winner goes and wins the Hennessy off a big weight ala Denman & Bobs Worth then you take note. But that didn’t happen this year. The Betfair Chase is also of some use to help bolster opinion, but a horse must run in one of the xmas races subsequently.
So here’s the key point, it’s all about this seasons big race form, last seasons Chase form matters very little as a guide to the Gold Cup winner of the current season. Some form shown at the track and previous festivals can of course help cement confidence, but War of Attrition, Kauto Star & Long Run had never won at the track prior to winning their Gold Cups so previous course form is not as important as some people are at pains to make it out to be.
Since Best Mates 2nd to Florida Pearl in 2001 King George and with the exception of an RSA winner following up in the Hennessy and not running in one of the two races (Bobs Worth), every Gold Cup winner had won either the King George or the Lexus Chase that season. With War of Attrition being the sole horse to have come 2nd in one of the races and followed up by winning the Gold Cup. The one exception you may have noticed which I excluded was the Imperial Commander situation, he blundered early in the King George ruining any chance he had while Kauto Star blundered early in a Gold Cup also ruining any chance he had. Both duelled out a thrilling Betfair Chase finish and were clearly leading lights in that season.
We need to take account of these unique circumstances, for example if a mistake at a key point in a Lexus Chase lets say costs a horse dearly and he finishes close enough 3rd he will still be included in consideration for that seasons Gold Cup. The underlying thing we are trying to assess is a high class staying chaser performing in the highest class race against race fit rivals. So with that in mind what are we looking out for in two weeks time.
King George – Cue Card, Dynsate, Al Ferof & Sil Conti – Whatever opinions you may hold of one or other of them right now if one of them wins the King George they immediately jump up to the top of the Gold Cup list. Despite the inevitable questions about "will he stay a Gold cup trip" or "will he like Cheltenham" that will come regardless who wins from them the facts are there, Kicking King, Kauto Star & Long Run have had one or both of those two questions levelled at them and they went on to win the Gold Cup.
Lexus Chase – Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Lord Windermere, Unioniste – Even if it’s soft ground all it does is show the reserves of stamina the winner has. Who wasn’t burnt by writing off Synchronised’s win in the race in 2011. If Bobs Worth & sir Des run and one or the other doesn’t run well you can begin to write their chases off.
So what you want to have by the end of the month - hoping all have run their races – is all the info you need to make the betting decisions and shortlist for the Gold Cup. Any horses running their race and being beaten 5+ lengths can be likely discarded. War of Attrition was beaten 4l 2nd and won Gold Cup and that’s about the worst a Gold Cup winner has run baring Imperial Commanders bad blunder. You’d hope 3 maybe 4 horses will come out with strong claims of winning the Gold Cup.
For me, I think Al Ferof, Cue Card & Dynaste are the ones likely to put up best claims in the King George* while Sir Des Champs, Bobs Worth & First Lieutenant are likeliest to put up claims in the Lexus.
*I’ve excluded Mount Benbulben as believe he has to go right handed
It will be interesting to see how last years Gold cup horses fair against the rest as if they all get beaten we can move to writing off the form of that race almost entirely.
@cvbyrne
jumpsadvisor.com
Key Winter Trials
http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
First things first, nearly every year people rate the previous seasons Gold Cup form as the single most important piece of form with regards to who will win the race that season. Despite Best Mate being the only horse in modern times to ever win it back to back we see year after year the Gold Cup winner installed as a short priced antepost favourite for the next seasons race.
It is claimed and the evidence supports it that often a Gold Cup takes so much out of a horse it’s impossible for them to ever reach those heights again. The exception in recent years is Kauto Star but he was a freak who’s unbelievable toughness was probably his most amazing talent. Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run all posted career best runs to win the race, form they never reached again. Could it be the same for Bobs Worth? Whatever the individual cases for each horse you’re never going to win money long term sticking with the Gold Cup winner.
Year after year the best guide to finding the winner is the King George or the Lexus chase, the two big mid season chases where the best of Ireland and England line up against each other. From 2002 until 2012 every Gold cup winner ran in one of those races. The only other race that can feature as a trial is the Hennessy, if an RSA winner goes and wins the Hennessy off a big weight ala Denman & Bobs Worth then you take note. But that didn’t happen this year. The Betfair Chase is also of some use to help bolster opinion, but a horse must run in one of the xmas races subsequently.
So here’s the key point, it’s all about this seasons big race form, last seasons Chase form matters very little as a guide to the Gold Cup winner of the current season. Some form shown at the track and previous festivals can of course help cement confidence, but War of Attrition, Kauto Star & Long Run had never won at the track prior to winning their Gold Cups so previous course form is not as important as some people are at pains to make it out to be.
Since Best Mates 2nd to Florida Pearl in 2001 King George and with the exception of an RSA winner following up in the Hennessy and not running in one of the two races (Bobs Worth), every Gold Cup winner had won either the King George or the Lexus Chase that season. With War of Attrition being the sole horse to have come 2nd in one of the races and followed up by winning the Gold Cup. The one exception you may have noticed which I excluded was the Imperial Commander situation, he blundered early in the King George ruining any chance he had while Kauto Star blundered early in a Gold Cup also ruining any chance he had. Both duelled out a thrilling Betfair Chase finish and were clearly leading lights in that season.
We need to take account of these unique circumstances, for example if a mistake at a key point in a Lexus Chase lets say costs a horse dearly and he finishes close enough 3rd he will still be included in consideration for that seasons Gold Cup. The underlying thing we are trying to assess is a high class staying chaser performing in the highest class race against race fit rivals. So with that in mind what are we looking out for in two weeks time.
King George – Cue Card, Dynsate, Al Ferof & Sil Conti – Whatever opinions you may hold of one or other of them right now if one of them wins the King George they immediately jump up to the top of the Gold Cup list. Despite the inevitable questions about "will he stay a Gold cup trip" or "will he like Cheltenham" that will come regardless who wins from them the facts are there, Kicking King, Kauto Star & Long Run have had one or both of those two questions levelled at them and they went on to win the Gold Cup.
Lexus Chase – Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Lord Windermere, Unioniste – Even if it’s soft ground all it does is show the reserves of stamina the winner has. Who wasn’t burnt by writing off Synchronised’s win in the race in 2011. If Bobs Worth & sir Des run and one or the other doesn’t run well you can begin to write their chases off.
So what you want to have by the end of the month - hoping all have run their races – is all the info you need to make the betting decisions and shortlist for the Gold Cup. Any horses running their race and being beaten 5+ lengths can be likely discarded. War of Attrition was beaten 4l 2nd and won Gold Cup and that’s about the worst a Gold Cup winner has run baring Imperial Commanders bad blunder. You’d hope 3 maybe 4 horses will come out with strong claims of winning the Gold Cup.
For me, I think Al Ferof, Cue Card & Dynaste are the ones likely to put up best claims in the King George* while Sir Des Champs, Bobs Worth & First Lieutenant are likeliest to put up claims in the Lexus.
*I’ve excluded Mount Benbulben as believe he has to go right handed
It will be interesting to see how last years Gold cup horses fair against the rest as if they all get beaten we can move to writing off the form of that race almost entirely.
@cvbyrne
jumpsadvisor.com
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Good post CV,very interesting reading.
Agree about which horses will put up claims, and I think after the 2 races we will be left with the KG horses as the ones with the main claims.
Using Bobsworth as a guide im dismissing last years horses, presuming normal festival ground.
If First Lieutenant were to win the Lexus well I would include him, but he does seem fairly close to SDC on known form last season.
The Betfair told me that Bobsworth just aint quick enough to cope with Cue Card, and I don't see any different next March.Yes Bob will probably be fitter, but Cue Card is a serious horse at distances up to 3m,and now hes proved he stays well,i just cannot see Bob living with him.
Agree about which horses will put up claims, and I think after the 2 races we will be left with the KG horses as the ones with the main claims.
Using Bobsworth as a guide im dismissing last years horses, presuming normal festival ground.
If First Lieutenant were to win the Lexus well I would include him, but he does seem fairly close to SDC on known form last season.
The Betfair told me that Bobsworth just aint quick enough to cope with Cue Card, and I don't see any different next March.Yes Bob will probably be fitter, but Cue Card is a serious horse at distances up to 3m,and now hes proved he stays well,i just cannot see Bob living with him.
Thanks bud,
Sir Des Champs was my first play in this after last seasons Gold Cup. I thought he and Long Run slit eachothers throats in the Gold Cup and the jockey change and ground didn't help. Was pretty keen on him all the way until the Betfair Chase. Then I started to question the validity of that form and now require him to go out and prove himself in the Lexus.
Like the Champion Hurdle I've not formed a strong opinion on the race yet. But I'm thinking Al Ferof and Cue Card will emerge in the 1-2 at Kempton and I've had a bet on both to do a KG/GC double.
Antepost bets in this are now Sir Des, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant, smaller plays at bigger odds on Lyreen Legend & Flemenstar plus a likely lost Boston Bob bet. Tempted to add Unioniste as I think he's improving fast and he along with First Lieutenant will be my bets in the Lexus
Sir Des Champs was my first play in this after last seasons Gold Cup. I thought he and Long Run slit eachothers throats in the Gold Cup and the jockey change and ground didn't help. Was pretty keen on him all the way until the Betfair Chase. Then I started to question the validity of that form and now require him to go out and prove himself in the Lexus.
Like the Champion Hurdle I've not formed a strong opinion on the race yet. But I'm thinking Al Ferof and Cue Card will emerge in the 1-2 at Kempton and I've had a bet on both to do a KG/GC double.
Antepost bets in this are now Sir Des, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant, smaller plays at bigger odds on Lyreen Legend & Flemenstar plus a likely lost Boston Bob bet. Tempted to add Unioniste as I think he's improving fast and he along with First Lieutenant will be my bets in the Lexus
Im on Al ferof at 20nrfb and Cue card 25nrfb plus a bit on here for AF at around 32,so that looks ok at the moment.
Have nice prices on Dynaste on here, but realistically I think the KG is more his race.
Also did Boston Bob nrfb, really thought this race would suit the horse,but not to be this season by the looks of it so a free bet will have to be found on the day.
Only Irish horse im looking at is First Lieutenant, and will keep an eye on prices before the Lexus takes place,i still cant make my mind up about FL and 3m2 round Cheltenham to be honest....what you think about him mate in that regard??
If I am wrong about my thoughts re Bobsworth and last years field, I will just have to live with it,they are all too short to back now for me with the doubts I feel that are there after what I saw in the Betfair.
Have nice prices on Dynaste on here, but realistically I think the KG is more his race.
Also did Boston Bob nrfb, really thought this race would suit the horse,but not to be this season by the looks of it so a free bet will have to be found on the day.
Only Irish horse im looking at is First Lieutenant, and will keep an eye on prices before the Lexus takes place,i still cant make my mind up about FL and 3m2 round Cheltenham to be honest....what you think about him mate in that regard??
If I am wrong about my thoughts re Bobsworth and last years field, I will just have to live with it,they are all too short to back now for me with the doubts I feel that are there after what I saw in the Betfair.
I think First Lieutenant will relish the 3m2f trip of the Gold Cup, I think he's an out and out stayer and I know Mouse does too. I just hope I get to see him take his chance in the race. I have a small feeling last year was the time he should have run as he'll be a 9yo next year.
As for opposing Gold Cup form wholesale, only Kauto Star has managed to place in a Gold Cup and win it the following year in recent times and Best Mate is the only one to win it back to back. So it is often the best case to only allow horses 1 shot at the race and then focus on the new ones
As for opposing Gold Cup form wholesale, only Kauto Star has managed to place in a Gold Cup and win it the following year in recent times and Best Mate is the only one to win it back to back. So it is often the best case to only allow horses 1 shot at the race and then focus on the new ones
don't be tempted by unioniste this GC CV as he,s still learning the game but 2015 will be his time
At this stage I always just go with betting on horses who will shorten in odds as it gives a position to trade off in feb on ones you don't fancy. I think Unioniste could win the Lexus if it's soft and he'd then shorten considerably.
January is the time to start forming strong opinions on Cheltenham as so many big trials in December
January is the time to start forming strong opinions on Cheltenham as so many big trials in December
if your laying off then fair play. he will run well in the lexus but he wont win, as I say he,s still learning the game and I wont put you off next year for sure
Long Run looked far less than a Gold Cup winner at this stage of his career having lost in the Paddy Power and he went on to win the King George and Gold Cup. You'd be surprised by Unioniste. He like Long Run also lost in an RSA.
But I think he'd have to win the Lexus or go very close to line up in the Gold Cup, I think they might send him back over for Irish Hennessy and then Punchestown Gold Cup like Neptune Collonges used to do.
After all they have Al Ferof for the Gold Cup.
But I think he'd have to win the Lexus or go very close to line up in the Gold Cup, I think they might send him back over for Irish Hennessy and then Punchestown Gold Cup like Neptune Collonges used to do.
After all they have Al Ferof for the Gold Cup.
Hes a horse that's likely to surprise at times imo.looks one of those fast improving youngsters that may well regress fairly quickly.Could be one to get on in his younger days.
Bit like Long Run maybe.
Bit like Long Run maybe.
a bit early to start talking about regression budd he,s only 5 and had 7 chases winning 4, but if he regresses like old neptunes and wins a national he,ll have payed his way...
well hes obviously still improving and pretty rapidly ,but the speed he seems to be doing it suggests he may regress sooner than others do.
That's all im saying.
That's all im saying.
Looks like Bobs Worth is running in the Lexus. That means the entire Gold Cup market will run in one or other of the races next week.
I can't see see any serious excuses for any of the runners right now bar possible heavy ground.
Sir Des I'd give a small shade to as he essentially had no prep falling so early lto. The rest have had a prep run or two.
I've Al Ferof and Cue Card backed to win King George and Gold Cup double.
I might be tempted by a similar bet on Bobs Worth in the Lexus. I fancy Unioniste or Lord Windemere in that race though
I can't see see any serious excuses for any of the runners right now bar possible heavy ground.
Sir Des I'd give a small shade to as he essentially had no prep falling so early lto. The rest have had a prep run or two.
I've Al Ferof and Cue Card backed to win King George and Gold Cup double.
I might be tempted by a similar bet on Bobs Worth in the Lexus. I fancy Unioniste or Lord Windemere in that race though
Interesting reading. I've played in the Gold Cup backing First Lieutenant 20/1 Lord Windermere ew 33/1 and Harry Topper ew 33/1. I'm resigned to the fact that Harry Topper won't get round if he actually turns up. I saw him as a Synchronised who I was mad on at 14/1 when he won as it was a matter of keeping him jumping. But Harry can't jump. First Lieutenant hasn't sparkled this year but is a Cheltenham horse so jury is out on him for me. Can see him placed in Lexus then put away to be readied for March. Lord Windermere I had in the RSA at all sorts of prices so he owes me nothing but I thought he would win the Hennessey and backed appropriately and was disappointed. However, he too has shown he is a Cheltenham horse and may be better come March.
Last year I backed SDC in a big way win only and he got beat. I felt McCoy pushed on too soon and got swallowed up. Long Run wasn't the one to beat. Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti were. However, the record of those trying again to win it when beat the previous year is poor and that puts me off. As does his recent fall.
The King George will tell us loads. I'm not sure Al Ferof will stay 3m although Nicholls is adamant and I will be shocked if he stayed the Gold Cup trip. The King George is often won by a stayer and he reminds me of Azertiyuiop (or whatever he was called) who didnt get home. Dynaste is intriguing as I could see him winning a King George (I think he will be in front of Al Ferof at least) but just not staying in March up the hill similar to One Man. Similarly Cue Card. I don't like the way he folded in last year's KG and his trainer is worried about a virus in the stable.
I have had a go at Silviniaco Conti doing the KG-GC double at 40/1 as he will definitely stay in each race. I liked the way he moved in the Betfair before he obviously blew up. His trainer says he will come on leaps and bounds for that and he was going really well when fell in the Gold Cup also. Again though, the record that he got beat last time and trying again nags me but can lay off if he wins the King George.
Bobs Worth is still the one to beat in the Gold Cup. He obviously wasn't right in the Betfair. His Cheltenham record is awesome and if he wins the Lexus then he deserves to be around 5-2 in March.
Last year I backed SDC in a big way win only and he got beat. I felt McCoy pushed on too soon and got swallowed up. Long Run wasn't the one to beat. Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti were. However, the record of those trying again to win it when beat the previous year is poor and that puts me off. As does his recent fall.
The King George will tell us loads. I'm not sure Al Ferof will stay 3m although Nicholls is adamant and I will be shocked if he stayed the Gold Cup trip. The King George is often won by a stayer and he reminds me of Azertiyuiop (or whatever he was called) who didnt get home. Dynaste is intriguing as I could see him winning a King George (I think he will be in front of Al Ferof at least) but just not staying in March up the hill similar to One Man. Similarly Cue Card. I don't like the way he folded in last year's KG and his trainer is worried about a virus in the stable.
I have had a go at Silviniaco Conti doing the KG-GC double at 40/1 as he will definitely stay in each race. I liked the way he moved in the Betfair before he obviously blew up. His trainer says he will come on leaps and bounds for that and he was going really well when fell in the Gold Cup also. Again though, the record that he got beat last time and trying again nags me but can lay off if he wins the King George.
Bobs Worth is still the one to beat in the Gold Cup. He obviously wasn't right in the Betfair. His Cheltenham record is awesome and if he wins the Lexus then he deserves to be around 5-2 in March.
Unioniste is a Ryanair horse for me. Can't see him winning the Gold Cup in 2014.
Al Ferof nothing like Azertyuiop,he certainly would not have been able to live with Moscow Flyer over 2m in Queen Mothers and Tingle Creeks. Hes much more of a stayer than Azerty.
That don't mean he will stay of course, but he certainly looks a stayer to me.
Unioniste has just won a 3m1f race by outstaying his rival and looks every inch a stayer to me.
Cant see him winning a Ryannair against the likely opposition next March,not quick enough imo.
That don't mean he will stay of course, but he certainly looks a stayer to me.
Unioniste has just won a 3m1f race by outstaying his rival and looks every inch a stayer to me.
Cant see him winning a Ryannair against the likely opposition next March,not quick enough imo.
although I have not backed al ferof I would have no worries about him staying in the king George bred to get 3m + has always looked a stayer to me .
Ballydoyle,
You may be right in your thinking Cue Card will not stay, but you can not possible draw that conclusion from last years King George. His race was over after 2furlongs. Joe Hazard decided to try and drop him in and his race was over.
Also Silviano didn't get beat in last years Gold Cip, he fell. So does not fit the stat if beaten horses can not win. .... See More Business!!!!
You may be right in your thinking Cue Card will not stay, but you can not possible draw that conclusion from last years King George. His race was over after 2furlongs. Joe Hazard decided to try and drop him in and his race was over.
Also Silviano didn't get beat in last years Gold Cip, he fell. So does not fit the stat if beaten horses can not win. .... See More Business!!!!
Nice post Bally, it's always a question if a horse will stay a trip he's never attempted. But I'd question merits of going on breeding entirely of Al Ferof couldn't stay a flat three miles on soft ground. I mean Dom Alco has sired all kinds of national winners.
I'd be more inclined to believe Al Ferof simply not as good as those who beat him rather than him not getting 3 miles in the King George if he's beaten.
I've tried to get a full opinion behind one or two horses, to get money on them now and avoid a price crash post win. But I've nobody to mouth about so no horse to put the money behind.
Very interesting Cheltenham this season. Few very open races. I hope the next 10 days can tell us a lot.
I'd be more inclined to believe Al Ferof simply not as good as those who beat him rather than him not getting 3 miles in the King George if he's beaten.
I've tried to get a full opinion behind one or two horses, to get money on them now and avoid a price crash post win. But I've nobody to mouth about so no horse to put the money behind.
Very interesting Cheltenham this season. Few very open races. I hope the next 10 days can tell us a lot.
Very true CV and like your posts. I just have a nagging feeling Al Ferof is too exuberant for the King George. Dynaste, Cue Card and Silviniaco will all stay and dare I say, are better (potentially better in case of Dynaste) than Al Ferof?
The way Dynaste won at the meeting last year - he would be hard to beat round here but my mind is on Silviniaco Conti ew at 7-1.
Look at last years race - thorough stayer won it. Could you have seen Al Ferof winning that? I couldn't personally.
The way Dynaste won at the meeting last year - he would be hard to beat round here but my mind is on Silviniaco Conti ew at 7-1.
Look at last years race - thorough stayer won it. Could you have seen Al Ferof winning that? I couldn't personally.
If he stays then yes I could see him winning the race last year and I can see him winning it this year,but the horse has not had the chance yet to show us he stays.He has shown us he can carry a big weight and win on very soft ground over 2 and half m, so it is just a matter of if he stays for me.
We wont know that till the day.
As for whether AF is better than these or not,we have to wait and see. The horse has been off the track whilst the others have been proving themselves, or not maybe in some cases, so really its only fair to give the horse the chance to prove himself as well. He certainly looked very good in his only competitive race outside novice company when stepped up in trip.
Lets see what he can do at a trip that's nearer what most think he will be his optimum,and then judge imo.
We wont know that till the day.
As for whether AF is better than these or not,we have to wait and see. The horse has been off the track whilst the others have been proving themselves, or not maybe in some cases, so really its only fair to give the horse the chance to prove himself as well. He certainly looked very good in his only competitive race outside novice company when stepped up in trip.
Lets see what he can do at a trip that's nearer what most think he will be his optimum,and then judge imo.
Boston Bob runs on the 31st in a 2.5 hurdle. Have no Idea what his handler is expecting to achieve by running him in a hurdle over an inadequate distant
Win,lose or draw,he still has to run him in a 3m chase at some point and time is running out . I would have liked him to have had at least 2 chases behind
him by Gold Cup time to boost his confidence. Liked both the performances from Silviniaco and Bobs and finding it difficult to see how any of the beaten horses
can turn that form around at HQ. Don't think a 2.5 hurdle will tell us anything about Boston Bobs chances of winning a Gold Cup and disappointed that Mullins
has chosen to start him off in such a race
Win,lose or draw,he still has to run him in a 3m chase at some point and time is running out . I would have liked him to have had at least 2 chases behind
him by Gold Cup time to boost his confidence. Liked both the performances from Silviniaco and Bobs and finding it difficult to see how any of the beaten horses
can turn that form around at HQ. Don't think a 2.5 hurdle will tell us anything about Boston Bobs chances of winning a Gold Cup and disappointed that Mullins
has chosen to start him off in such a race
Pretty sure its been reported that he will be going down the stayers hurdle route, can't recall where I saw it though, sorry.
You really can't fault Bobs Worth's record around Cheltenham. Missed out on him last year. He wasn't my top rated trends horse but he did satisfy all the 100% trends, and I regard him as the 'one that got away' last year. Previous good course form counts for so much I think, and as s result, will be looking closely at the likes of Champagne Fever too.
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