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deepingfox
11 Dec 13 22:06
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Date Joined: 10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 723 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
One of the landmark races of the Festival, the cheer going up for Race 1, Day 1, the field brimming with new talent having their first year over obstacles - its always a fantastic spectacle, and a target for the big UK trainers, Ireland, new Flat Racing recruits etc.

Its amazing that at the moment we cant identify a stronger favourite, most probably due to Willie Mullins having a spread of top novice hurdlers across all of the novice events.

I plan to give this a lot of thought over the weekend, with Cheltenham and Ireland hosting races that could lead to more clues, and before I start putting the video replays on, I was wondering what the other Forum Members thoughts are on:-

A) THE VALUE in the Market currently - and why?
B) Who you believe will emerge from Mullins, Hendo, Nicholls etc - to take higher order in the market, on the run up to March?

Look forward to a lively debate.
Pause Switch to Standard View SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE 14/1 the Field...
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Report Simonw1981 December 11, 2013 10:30 PM GMT
Irving from Nicholls yard 30 on here good value.
Report deepingfox December 11, 2013 11:09 PM GMT
Good Call, on IRVING, like the German breeding, and the understated impressive debut win, and simplicity of next step up.

At 119 Racing Post Rating, has a lot of improvement to show, to register at the top of the market, but has so much scope, that a win in a graded Race NTO could catapult him up the bookies lists.
Report Tory December 11, 2013 11:22 PM GMT
Don't know if its value but the one I'm looking forward to seeing at the  moment is Golantilla. Bumper has produced the last 3 winners of the supreme  and Martin has said he was only about 80-90% right at chelt this year. 24 could be quite big in a months time
Report deepingfox December 11, 2013 11:36 PM GMT
Yes, Tony Martin raved about him after his Festival Bumper Prep last January, he couldn't have been clearer of the regard he has for him.

Any news on his debut over hurdles yet?

"That was exactly what I knew he´d do. This horse is an absolute machine. We have some decent handicappers at home and they can´t get anywhere near him. We might go to Naas or Fairyhouse with him now or else straight to Cheltenham. The Champion Bumper is the aim with this fella and always has been"
- Tony Martin.
Report onehundredandeighty December 12, 2013 6:29 AM GMT
Me too,should be a good debate on the Supreme Novice 2014 thread Shocked
Report rogerthebutler December 12, 2013 11:10 AM GMT
Have backed Irving at 30's on potential, breeding and manner of successes to date.

Next race should tell us if I've thrown my money away.....
Report Simonw1981 December 21, 2013 12:40 AM GMT
Told you all Irving was good value
Report buddeliea December 21, 2013 6:44 AM GMT
yep,you did.
Unfortunately I waited a bit,but I still have 16nrfb,so quiet happy with that.
Report buddeliea December 21, 2013 6:51 AM GMT
oops!! what am I talking about??
Its Garde la Victoire I have 16nrfb. Too early in morning!!!!
Irving I have at 32,but problem with that is its on here,so no insurance.
Still,as you say its good value alright.
Report Simonw1981 December 21, 2013 7:56 AM GMT
I managed to get 60, after I got him added to the market. My Dad is in the syndicate so you could say I had a bit of a head start knowing what Nicholls team thought of him.
Just hope he makes it through to march, you never know how good they are until they face the big guns and volnay de thaix wasn't that bad a yard stick, although he hasn't beat anything.
I wouldn't say he has beaten much yet though.
Report rogerthebutler December 21, 2013 11:03 AM GMT
Yeah but who has?

It's all about education, stepping up on previous performances and above all, avoiding meaningful competition until March.

Irving fits the template nicely so far, and you must be really pleased wuith the way things are panning out for him.
Report deepingfox December 21, 2013 1:17 PM GMT
Starting this thread 9 days ago sprung IRVING up straight away, and boy did he look good, with speed and application at the end of the Ascot race yesterday.

Still 14/1 the field, but I think we now have a British based horse in IRVING who is going to run in the Supreme, and is likely to look like value for anyone taking the 14's now or the previously higher prices.

The Irish hand hasn't taken shape in the novice hurdles yet, but I think IRVING should be our staring point for having a betting interest now, before any shortening-up takes shape.
Report bluebirdfan December 25, 2013 8:57 AM GMT
Moyle Park will be favourite if he wins well tomorrow
Report joondalup December 25, 2013 3:14 PM GMT
if moyle park wins tomorrow i will moon me arse at the kempton winning post
Report festivalfanatic December 25, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
What about if he wins on Friday j?Mischief
Report joondalup December 25, 2013 6:05 PM GMT
of course not it will win on the bridle on friWink
Report deepingfox December 27, 2013 9:43 PM GMT
Still 14/1 the field, on 27th December, nothing coming in to smash open the door to favouritism yet.
Report Fallen Angel December 28, 2013 12:41 AM GMT
Bit suprised that the Tullow Tank is still 16/1 after today. Thought that was a fair performance over in Ireland today and was fancied to run a fairly big race according to the betting. Still looks wide open, very few perfect records in the front contenders.
Report deepingfox December 30, 2013 8:23 PM GMT
IRVING entered in the Tolworth on Sat 4th Jan, a quality 5-day entry, and it looks the definitive English 2M Novice race post Festival, and a big AP betting correction after the race.
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