BOOM!!! Gold Cup Wide Open, Thoughts???

yep it has been blown wide open and a few who may have been looking at other races at the festival may now fancy having a crack at the blue riband  as bobs worth looks a bit vulnerable now  and the gold cup form may not be as strong as first thought ,wouldnt write bobs off as he goes so well at chelt but his supporters would have wanted better than that run .

it's only now we really should appreciate just how good Kauto and Denman were,To be consistently as good as both were is just incredible when u look back at recent gold cup winners and realize how average they are.

In general the horse that wins the Gold Cup is a horse who really really stays and stays that trip. I would not be certain that any of yesterdays runners do that or will do that better than Bobs Worth. Occasionally if there is a week renewal a non stayer may win if he has enough class.

My view for what its worth is that Bobs Worth ran a stinker ,to finish behind Long Run suggest to me something was up. The question is what?  I think it could be that like some Gold Cup horses the race is such a tough one to win its take so much out of them they are never quite the same horse again or we will find out in a few days time that he "scoped badly"

Bobsworth a monster ew bet at 6s

Cue Card an ever bigger monster bet ew at 8s

Has any horse ever won the Champion Bumper as well as the Gold Cup??

Florida Pearl closest. Briar Hill probably first.

I don't know about bumper winners but 3 different winners of the Haldon Gold Cup, Ryan Air and Betfair Chase have all gone on to win the Gold cup as has a horse second in the Arkle to a very smart 2 miler (Kicking King 2nd to Well chief)

Cue Card has achieved all of those feats on his own

Is it not just a case that alot (not all) of Hendersons are under performing at the minute.... Seems alot of comments from people who are writting his horses off. I just think the whole stable is under a cloud, how many odds on shots have been beaten from his runners in the last few weeks??
BW is still 'one' of the best staying chasers out there and would be a confident pick over CC come cheltenham.

not for me he would n't

nor me...how on earth is he going to keep tabs on Cue Card on normal festival going, just aint gonna happen imo, he got outpaced last year and their weren't any horse of Cue Cards ability up with the pace!!

How many more Henderson odds on chance do we need to see beaten....
Something wrong with his horses!!!
Budd
Didn't BW win on good festival ground the 2 years before? Did you think CC was a superstar when he got beat first time out this year?? Just maybe had race fitness on his side Saturday even though BW was way below his best...

In a match bet I'd probably side with Cue Card.

But looking at it from a neutral perspective.

Bobs and Cue have both achieved a RPR of 180, both have tremendous records at Cheltenham and are young enough to improve further. Cue has 12 Chase starts, Bobs only 7.

Robbo,
Watching both horses over the last couple of seasons I knew Cue Card was a better horse over lesser distance and now I know he stays 3m1f well I have no doubt hes better at the longer distance.
To me it was always about him proving he has the stamina for the Gold Cup,Saturday for me showed he does.
Hes bred to stay further than the Gold Cup distance as well, and he looked to me like he had plenty left at Haydock. Coupled with the pace he goes,if he jumps well(as they all have to)and he has normal festival ground Bob will not get near him.Like I say he got outpaced last year in the GC,and Cue Card will outpace him even more.
Wec all know Cue Card is better than Bob at 2 and a half m, so now he has proved he stays,and stays well(you have to stay well to do it like he did on Saturday)then for me hes gonna be better at 3m or 3m2.Hes just a classier horse.

No I would not think Cue Card was a superstar on his run at Exeter,but he had already proved top class at 2-2 and a half,so that was no problem.
Yes,he would have had race fitness on his side,but Bob has come out 1st time and won good races,and I don't think he would have been far away from being right.Certainly not to have been beaten that far out.
At some point we have to make a judgement,i have done that now as re Bob and Cue Card,time will tell as always if I am right,i am confident as one can be in this game that I am though.

Well reasoned comments bud, However did BW beat CC over the 2.5 mile trip?
As we all know its a game of pay your money take your chance, however my take rightly or wrongly is very different, CC was race fit BW wasn't, Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles can both see Henderson's horses are very backward this season for one reason or another (Im sure the superstar will win though)
Im as confident as you we will see a different BW come March, but i have been wrong before

Bud you talk about a normal festival ground as though it won't suit bobs worth???
Correct me if I'm wrong but I have always been under the impression bob is better on good ground and his class won him last years GC in spite of the ground being against him....... 3 mile 2 round Cheltenham or 3 mile 1 round haydock are extremely different tests imo, some horses are just tailor made for Cheltenham and bob is one of those, write him off at your peril!!!

I agree with barnesey's comment there. It was long argued that Bob's Worth wanted a sound surface and that anything he did on soft was despite rather than because of the ground. Having said that and having only watched the race once up to now I'm puzzled by how easily he was beaten off. Had he been a close up staying on fourth then peculiarly would both have strenghtened his case and that of Cue Card in my view.

When I mean normal festival ground I am saying that Cue Card will be too quick for Bob,whether Bob acts on it or not,to me only very soft ground will enable Bob to keep near enough to challenge.That I am basing on watching both horses and how quick each one is,and im confident that CC is a lot quicker on my observations of the 2 horses.The softer the ground the more Bobs stamina will come into play and the more it will blunt CC'S speed.Normal ground CC will be too far ahead by the time Bob gets his stamina going.

Robbo if they had been level weights over 2.5 that day,CC would have won by 7 lengths strictly on the result.

i always thought 3lb = 1 Len in handicapping?? so maybe 2.5len
but facts are facts it wasnt off levels and BW won over a trip which stamina wasnt the reason for the result.

tnink we are getting a tad confused mate, I am talking about the race at newbury which bob won by a sh head receiving 7Lb.

No stamina was not the reason,of course it weren't,he aint as quick as Cue Card which is what I am saying.
Now that Cue Card has proved he stays well,he wont be over 3m distances either imo.

whats going on?? we ARE on the same race,but is it not 1 length = 1Lb ??

Yep, staying chases 1lb to 1 length.

sir des champs and bobs worth will battle out the finish again,just back both of them !

no thanks

Sir Des Champs could barely walk across the line in last years race; I think it's probably one furlong too far for him.

It really is wide open now imo, and from my point of view, I couldn't make a selection with an degree of confidence.  There are positives and negatives about a lot of them, but then I suppose it's a wide open market.

For what its worth, my shortlist is Cue Card, Al Ferof and Dynaste at the moment.

Sir Des Champs was victim of an over aggressive ride on soft ground imo. He'd never been ridden that prominently before but under McCoy he pressed Long Run for the lead a circuit from home and really set the race up for Bobs Worth. On good ground with a less aggressive ride he stays no problem imo.

pretty much with you chief,but I would also add Boston Bob and Lord Windermere who are both open to any improvement and available at nice odds nrfb. Think they will both relish the Gold Cup trip.

I will not be touching any horse that ran in the race this year with a bargepole,unless it comes up very soft,then I would look at Bobsworth as an possible.
Agree about SDC,non stayer for me,and not good enough anyway.

Yeah, we'll know a lot about Lord Windermere after the Hennessy.  Bobs Worth won it off 160 last year, and Lord Windermere is 154, so if he does have Gold Cup hopes, he needs to be winning that, or at least going really close.

As you know, I'm not one to focus too much on stats, but Best Mate was the last back to back Gold Cup winner almost 10 years ago, and then back to the early 70's before him, so that has to be a negative for Bobs Worth.

I have my doubts over SDC's stamina, Long Run looks like he'll bypass the race for the National, First Lieutenent doesn't win enough, I was slighlty disappointed with Conti and Harry Topper's Charlie Hall run is some way short of Gold Cup form; so for me that only leaves Cue Card, Dynaste and Al Ferof.

I've missed all of the excellent prices on Cue Card, and won't be going in at 8's, so I'll make a decision on one of those three after the King George; although I can see at least one of them ending up in the Ryanair (especially if Cue Card wins the King George).

I've backed 2 and I'm still happy with them.  Sir Des Champs I maintain will take the beating on good good/soft and Dynaste who may still improve further but I do have a doubt in the back of my mind that he may stop up the hill.

The 8/1 nrfb could be value chief, especially if Cue Card does win the KG.
AL Ferof is the most likely of the 3 to end up in the Ryanair I guess, given that hes yet to show us he stays 3m,but I fully expect him to prove that at Kempton,even if he loses. I think they will all be in the Gold Cup myself.
Well unless one of them wins the KG by a street!!

I can't argue with Cue Card or Al Ferof but feel I've missed the boat with Cue Card and personally don't fancy Al Ferof as much as Dynaste and SDC at present.  They all act around cheltenham and are major players.

I think better ground will definitely help Sir Des Champs, whether he is good enough I'm not sure. Can't bring myself to back previously beaten Gold Cup horses tho.

Yeah 8/1 could look big in March, but as Shockster said I think I've missed the boat, and can't bring myself to back him at 8's when 25's was freely available only 4 days ago! 

I'd like to see him over 3m one more time, for piece of mind before I'd back him (I thought he was a doubtful stayer before the Betfair); not claiming in any way that he can't repeat it again, but I'd just like to see it first.

I'll hold my hands up over Dynaste, and I admit that I judged him wrongly; mainly because of the poor quality Jewson and dismissed the Aintree form because it is end of season Aintree form, but he is right in the mix now and offers a decent bit of value at 16's (his price has only been clipped in slightly since the Betfair, despite a very promising run).  I think there could be a decent bit of improvement in him yet.

From a selfish point of view, I've got Al Ferof at a nice price for the Ryanair, so I wouldn't mind him going for that, but Hales is making Gold Cup noises, and who could blame him.

Not sure I could ever back Dynaste at the festival, for me he's always looked at his very best on a flat track.

Agree SDC will be better on decent ground,but I just keep thinking about last years race and the way he finished the race,he was absolutely dead on his feet,and if Cue Card is in the race I see him in a worse state at the end!! Also as ive said before on here somewhere,as much as I love Tidal Bay surely SDC should have beaten him in the Lexus were he a Gold Cup winner??
I just don't think he is,and watching Cue Card I just think hes better than this years runners,i really believe its as simple as that,and im gonna live or die by that. Therefore its the unexposed ones that I am interested in.

Dynaste has good form on flat tracks yes, but he is still improving by the looks of it, and a little bit more hes a major threat in the Gold Cup imo.

Dynaste unlikely to improve through the season. In the wrong stable for that. Suspect he was match fit last week and, having gone well to two out, ran out of petrol. Pipes don't do Gold Cup contenders (successfully), their methods get horses to peak early in their careers and I don't see Dynaste as a contender.

interesting piece in the weekender form tom segal heres the gist ......im begining to think llast seasons gold cup was a real brute . it rained hard on the day and quite a few horses in the race might have seen the dark side and never be the same again.already we have seen long run and cape tribulation run badly afterwards and on saturday bobs worth ran a shocker too . he looked really sluggish throughout and while the track wouldnt have suited,not that long ago he beat cue card over 2.4 miles at newbury. bobs worth showed very little at haydock and anyone who has backed him for a gold cup repeat performance should be afraid ,very afraid .

Anyone know if The Giant Bolster is going the GC route or Ryanair?

Noticed he's got an entry in the December gold cup next month...tia

Buddeliea just wondering what your thoughts are now that Cue Card didnt appear to stay 3m quite so well in the King George and Bobs Worth bounced back to his usual self at Leopardstown? Are you still so sure Cue Card is to fast and Bobs Worth wont get near him in Gold Cup? Or are you a tad worried whether CC will even run in the Gold Cup? I would be worried myself. You were far to dismissive of Bobs Worth imo he's been there and done it in a Gold Cup. Being dismissive of reigning champions will often make you appear a mug. There's a reason hes a champion. And in reference to the Newbury form where Bobs Worth beat Cue Card. This race defeats ur speed arguement. Bobs Worth did keep tabs on Cue Card and did beat him over an inadequate trip.

Well Im pretty sure the KG was a better race than the Lexus,and fully expect SC to beat Bob in the Gold Cup.
As for Cue Card imo he stayed the trip and just got beat by a better horse on the day in the soft ground conditions which favoured SC over CC.
The Lexus was not run at anywhere near the pace of the KG and Bob was able to keep close enough for his stamina to  tell at the end,but beating FL and RB by not much would not have me taking current prices for the Gold Cup.
In the Gold Cup on normal festival ground I don't expect Bob to be able to keep near enough to be able to pick off CC and SC,especially as we saw in the KG, SC can lay up with a good pace and stay well.
As for the race at Newbury,CC was giving Bob 7lb,and is imo a much improved horse now. If you think Bob is anywhere near as quick as CC,thats up to you mate,i certainly don't.

Its only my opinion,and I may be wrong in not fancying Bob this year,but that's what ive decided and will stick to that.
Oh, and yes im a tad worried CC may be rerouted cos of recent events re S Sacre,but only a tad, and I do expect him to be continually trained for a Gold Cup campaign, and expect him to run, especially after reading his jockeys comments.

BW isn't no slow ground plodder that with  any hint of pace in the race is out with the washing, they went quick enough last year and he got to them, plenty of his races he's travelled perfectly well in and just powered away at the death, on the KG running, I'd have thought that tizzard would be more likely to try and hold on to CC rather than the opposite and he will be pestered all the way ....we don't yet know just how conti will get home and we certainly don't know if he can get home as well as BW.....AF is an outsider with a chance for me as I think he may appreciate the trip....anything else is out of it for me.

Conti is a stayer mate,thats all they keep saying about him,and now hes proved he can run well up with a good pace.
Bob was outpaced during the race last year,i expect him to be outpaced more this year,with what I consider to be a better horse in front Cue Card than any that ran in the race last year.Yes,Tizzard will be looking at getting a breather in to him and Cheltenhams undulations should allow him to do that, but basically the horse has to bowl along-that's where hes happiest,and when he produces his best.
Look,Bob is the reigning champ,so has to be respected,course he does.Im just trying to work the race out and how I see it being run,and imo the race will not be run like last year,think it will be pacier and not allow him to be near enough to get past them up the hill.
As for AF,i agree hes an interesting outsider,and if hes on a going day could well be a major threat. Mate of mines been saying for some time that AF is a horse that needs to be caught right on the day...he may well be right,and hes a type of horse where the formlines don't always stack up.

Yep fair comments, I'm certainly not ruling conti out, of course not, just saying he still has the full GC trip to answer, admittedly it looks promising on that front, but I'd still prefer BW, contrary to the thread title, I don't think it's wide open...the front two which I'd back BW with a back up on AF just in case.

That's where we do agree my friend,i don't think its wide open either.
I will have Cue Card instead of Bob.
And hope im right with my thoughts!!

Clarky9
24 Nov 13 23:18
Joined:
06 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 1,308 | Blogger: Clarky9's blog
Bobsworth a monster ew bet at 6s

:)

Amazing how it has become a head scratcher to probably the most predictable race of the festival bar the mares!

Bye bye Dynaste, Sir Des Champs, Cue Card who would need a lift off the ambulance

Bally thinks he knows Cue Card wont stay!!
I would never have guessed,only read it about 68 times!!

Just giving you a helping hand son

By the way I think Cue Card won't stay

That's 69!!
Talking of 69...that reminds me

Honestly, I don't think he will stay. I really don't...

Aye 69...where is she??? Oi sweetheart where art thou

"Sometimes I think you love that bloody horse racing more than you love me"

"Sweetheart...sometimes I think I love Cue Card more than you"

Bud your in for an expensive GC. If they go off at a real fast pace they'll be bottomed out before they even meet the hill and bobs will pick them off one by one... It is hard to see anything beating bobs if he is fit and well

Don't worry about me,i will have Bob covered in case im wrong.
Don't think I will be though.
If he can get close enough to the lead 2 out, i may start to get concerned.
Sil Conti can lay up fairly close to the pace and stays really well,if Bob can get to him I will be a tad surprised,but not totally shocked,he is the champ.

Don't think it will be a real fast pace,but I do think it may be a pace that gets Bob further back then his backers would like.
We'll see.