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Mystic Wind
19 Nov 13 13:13
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 412 | Blogger: Mystic Wind's blog
Lovely introduction today. Looked well, jumped well. Probably didn't beat much that wasn't the point.

WPM will doubtless throw several curve balls regarding his Festival target (he's mentioned the Albert Bartlett), but he looks tailor-made for the Neptune Novices Hurdle to me.

For me the bigger question is what does he do with Faugheen?

Neptune Novices Hurdle : 2pts win Briar Hill @ 12/1
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Report sintonian November 19, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
It will either be the Albert or Neptune for him. At least we can rule out the Supreme. Faugheen fans are thinking he will run in the Neptune too, that's what I have read.

I considered just now having a bet on Briar Hill for the Albert, but when I checked the market I remembered Carraig Mor was in there, as favourite, so I left it alone.
Report festivalfanatic November 19, 2013 4:29 PM GMT
Yes, nice introduction in an egg and spoon race. Bit like Champagne Fever on Saturday.....race doesn't tell us much. Looks like Willie's going to have to keep a lot of plates spinning. Wonder if he and hendo have the same journo spin doctor!
Report foolsgold123 November 19, 2013 4:55 PM GMT
I have backed briar hill for the Albert Bartlett and faugheen for the Neptune everything I've read points to that but they'll both end up in different races know my luck. Why did carriag more put you off festival fanatic?
Report festivalfanatic November 19, 2013 5:01 PM GMT
Wasn't me fg, it was sint! He probably watched Carraig Mor's hurdles debut at Uttoxeter where he ran a modest bunch ragged. Beautiful looking chasing type of a horse who is the apple of Alan King's eye.
Report foolsgold123 November 19, 2013 5:05 PM GMT
Aw sorry mate haha! Thought it was something like same owner or something meaning in reality I've done my money, I seen that race he  didn't jump very well at all but still pissed in good horse.
Report festivalfanatic November 19, 2013 5:08 PM GMT
CM in the 5 day decs for the first at Ascot on Saturday.
Report Mystic Wind November 19, 2013 6:51 PM GMT
Sounds as though it's the Navan Novices Hurdle for Briar Hill next (2m4f). However, the fact that Willie Mullins even mentioned the Royal Bond (discounted as being too soon) suggests they don't necessarily see him as 3m type.
Report foolsgold123 November 19, 2013 7:07 PM GMT
To be fair we are kidding ourselves trying to second guess Willie Mullins I think this will still be debated 3/4 weeks before the festival, I just thought briar hill being closely related to boston bob a horse that'll stay all day I thought Albert Barlett. I've backed them both with betvictor so I'll get my coppers back as a free bet if they don't line up in the races I fancy. The sky's the limit for this horse.
Report Arklearkle November 19, 2013 7:08 PM GMT
They ran MHD Boston Bob and Pont Alex in that Navan race so obviously not thinking Supreme.
Report CVByrne November 19, 2013 10:39 PM GMT
Briar Hill will run in Albert Bartlett
Faugheen will run in Neptune

Moyle Park / Union Dues for Supreme
Report foolsgold123 November 19, 2013 10:41 PM GMT
Why so confident CV? I hope ure right!
Report Howdi November 19, 2013 11:32 PM GMT
cant possibly know that for sure
Report Mystic Wind November 20, 2013 12:11 AM GMT
My gut instinct (it may just be wishful thinking) is that Faugheen will miss the Festival altogether. I just get a vibe that perhaps he's not quite as tough as BH, although he's obviously got bundles of talent. Aintree might be a better bet for him. Pure speculation on my part.
Report buddeliea November 20, 2013 7:37 AM GMT
He don't know for sure-none of us do- but CV does get it right more often than not with Mullins horses.
It points that way for me at the moment,and he was very bullish about Faugheen the other day on RUK interview,and that that told me he will be in the Neptune.
Report cufcno1 November 20, 2013 8:11 AM GMT
this debate will go on until the weekend before cheltenham,just watch the market from about the 7th march and that will tell you where they are going,he said cf was going for the albert bartlet but all the money was suggesting the supreme,they just dont want us to know !
Report Masterminded November 20, 2013 11:51 AM GMT
It's a guessing game but I think Faugheen is their Neptune horse but Briar Hill has too much pace to go for the Albert Bartlett imo. I can't think of many Albert Bartlett horses that could put up the type of performance he did in the Champion Bumper. He's no Boston Bob despite the lazy comparisons.
Report Mystic Wind November 20, 2013 1:10 PM GMT
I guess the obvious thing that is being over-looked is that Faugheen is owned by the Riccis and Briar Hill by the Wylies, so there must be a good chance they both run in the Neptune.

I see Faugheen is entered in the Royal Bond (2m) just to add further confusion!
Report sintonian November 20, 2013 2:33 PM GMT
WPM has half a dozen entries in all of Ireland's Grade1 races, especially the Novice races. It is hard to try and glean any clues from. He ran 5 in the Morgiana and was responsible for 7 of the 9 at the 5 day stage!
Report sintonian November 20, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
Just as an idea how difficult he is to predict, Briar Hill is a 12/1 chance for the Supreme,Neptune & Albert.

Champagne Fever, whilst clear outright favourite for the Arkle, he is still edging favouritism for the Jewson & RSA too.

A new level of ante-post trickery.
Report Arklearkle November 20, 2013 3:16 PM GMT
WM may have opinions about what he may run what/where but at this stage there is no way he could possibly know for certain. No one in his situation could possibly know at this stage. Injuries/going/improvement could change a lot of things. He has Union Dues, Moyle Park,   Briar Hill and Faugheen plus other possibilities in the hurdles. More than 3 1/2 months remaining.
Report unclepuncle November 20, 2013 4:32 PM GMT
For what it's worth (and obviously coming from me it's worth a heck of a lotLaugh) I reckon he'll end up in the Supreme.
Report CVByrne November 20, 2013 10:22 PM GMT
Below I was stating my opinion on where they'll run based on everything Mullins has said and my usual deduction. As bud and others can tell you I've yet to call one wrong for Mullins novices at the festival.

Few things to note when trying to read Mullins novices.

1) Ignore the trip they run over in their maiden. He'll keep his best ones apart and Irish maidens are run so slowly for half the way it always ends up being dictated by the best horse. Be more concerned with what big races they run in after their maiden.

2) With the exception of horses who end up in the 2m nov races He'll always run them over shorter trip than they will end up running over at the festival.

3) He'll keep his best horses apart, when looking at his team in Feb and still wondering where they'll go just think how he looks at it. Last year was easy Ricci had 3 good novice hurdlers and they had to be kept apart, CF Spureme, PA Neptune, Ballycasey AB.


Now on to Briar Hill & Faugheen. On his website he stated Faugheen will be over 2m4f or further. Briar Hill he said may end up in Albertt Bartlett, if not then the Neptune.

Briar Hill is related to Boston Bob who is a dour dour stayer. He'll be going for the 2m4f Navan Hurdle next. Faugheen looks like he could be headed for the Royal Bond next over 2m as they said they'd go back in trip as he was very keen.

Both will run over the middle distance on soft ground in Ireland most likely, do not concern yourself too much with what trip they run over. If I can map out where they go vfrom here (I think I may get this spot on)

Faugheen will likely go 2m Royal Bond in Dec then go for the 2m4f Slaney Hurdle in early Jan then the Doilette at Leopardtown in Feb before the Neptune

Briar Hill will go for Navan Hurdle over 2m4f then go for the 2m4f G2 at Leopardstown in Jan at Irish CH meeting

Mullins has said Moyle Park will start out over 2m and step up if he has to.

Hope that helps some in their AP betting. All the best
Report CVByrne November 20, 2013 10:25 PM GMT
A surefire way to keep youself safe is back his to win any race at the festival or back them on here for the race I stated and then when it's near the end of Feb trade out completely from the bet and move it to the nrnb with a bookie.
Report Mystic Wind November 20, 2013 11:37 PM GMT
Hi CV, that all sounds pretty sensible.

TBH, I'm going with my gut, which was screaming "NEPTUNE" after watching Briar Hill storm up the hill in the Bumper.

Briar Hill has showed more class at this stage of his career than Boston Bob had at the equivalent stage. The AB is a refuge for plodders, which I don't see applying to BH.

All opinions of course.

Your point 1) is interesting, especially if Faugheen turns-up in the Royal Bond.
Report CVByrne November 21, 2013 12:07 AM GMT
The AB is the land of the future Staying Chasers, you may call them 'plodders' but Bobs Worth is a Gold Cup winner. Plodder or not.

Briar Hill is a staying chaser every inch, big strong horse like Boston Bob. He looks of all the Mullins string (being Irish bred) a stayer. He was staying on well over 3m in his point to point win.

Faugheen is a stayer too but he seems to possess  that burst of speed, even his p2p win he quickened clear. As you'll see from Briar hills form he stays on or runs on well, no injection of pace. He is a proper stong stayer like Boston Bob.

Finally, I believe (and I'm not alone) that Faugheen would've beaten Briar Hill doing handstands in the Bumper if he hadn't had setbacks and missed a lot of last season. He is imo certainly a superior horse to Briar Hill over hurdles. We shall see what fences bring.
Report buddeliea November 21, 2013 7:42 AM GMT
Hello CV,nice to see you back on here mate.
Always good to get your views on Mullins stable,and pretty much agree with your points and likely destinations for Faugheen and Briar Hill.

One thing though,dont know about you but I weren't that impressed with the jumping of Faugheen,whereas Briar Hill I thought was quiet impressive in that dept. Could it be that whilst Faugheen may have been the better bumper horse,over jumps it may be different??
Report CVByrne November 21, 2013 7:31 PM GMT
Hey mate, won't be on here as much as last season, pretty much post on our forum now exclusively.

As for Faugheen, he needs to go quicker I think, he was keen and once he gets a faster pace he'll jump better. If he goes for the Royal Bond next I think you'll see better jumping.

Briar Hill is in less of a rush, he seems to give each hurdle respect. He is a very good jumper.
Report cufcno1 November 21, 2013 7:41 PM GMT
the speed briar hill showed in the cheltenham bumper i find it hard to believe faugheen was the better bumper horse,he put the race to bed in 5 strides and came away from horses that are holding the form up,briar hill would win any of the 3 races and is a better horse than faugheen,future gold cup winner !
Report CVByrne November 22, 2013 9:44 PM GMT
We shall see, Faugheen didn't make the festival Bumper but when he made the track he won his bumper by 22l, the 3rd has won since and the 2nd runs tomorrow at Ascot.

Faugheen is a machine.

I've loaded up on him for Neptune & Ballycasey for RSA. Plus e/w doubnle @ 510/1 and went in again today 390/1

Have Ballycasey @ 33/1 and some on betfair at 50s down to 30s

Mullins described him schholing at Punchestown as Aswesome
Report TITCH 1 November 22, 2013 11:02 PM GMT
Sincerely hope your right CV as like you have both the above forming 2 of my 3 ap bets so far, with 8-1 AFC for the WH my third.

We all know though if you want a guarantee "buy a dishwasher" !!
Report buddeliea November 23, 2013 6:46 AM GMT
Like the comments about Balleycasey,have taken the 25 nrfb available.
Cheers CV.
Report unclepuncle December 3, 2013 1:34 PM GMT
Has Mullins made any mention of Clondaw Court this season?
Report BJG December 3, 2013 1:38 PM GMT
CC Starts off in a maiden hurdle over 2 1/2m around xmas ^
Report BJG December 3, 2013 1:38 PM GMT
11. Clondaw Court
6yo g Court Cave - Secret Can’t Say. He has won a point to point and a bumper and he is a horse that we think
a fair bit of. He has yet to run over hurdles and he could start off in a maiden hurdle over two and a half miles
around Christmas time.
Report unclepuncle December 3, 2013 4:10 PM GMT
Thanks BJG
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