Cheltenham Festival
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Looks decent wager to me. Only one of the first dozen sure to enter. Loves the place. Race will cut up for me and he'll be no bigger than 7/2 on the day.
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Totally agree, how can a horse thats never been out the first 3 keep going off at better than evens a place?
Seems like alot of very kind folk out there giving money away...  |
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how can a horse thats never been out the first 3 keep going off at better than evens a place?
Because the race is 2 months away and he has to get there first?! |
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And there's no place market available yet
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My mate pointed this out to me today. Feel he is vastly underrated horse and a very good chance of running a big race again at Kempton. He is still only 8 years and might be one of those horess who is suited by the track!
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6/1 at laddies that pays 6/4 a place!!!
There is more than one place to bet when looking for value Sawyer.... |
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£10 e.w at 6-1 would give you £25 return for the place. £20 staked to pick up £25 is some way short of 6/4
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You can create the place bet by laying the win element on here, its virtually bang on the money. you can synthetically have the 6/4 a place (or close to including the commission element on the win lay bet).
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If the last few years are anything to go by it might be worth letting him have his below par first run and then the price could potentially get bigger. Even without that it's a massive price especially if the race is full of horses who don't get ghe trip like last year.
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If LR is value,what does that make Captain Chris at 25?
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It was a poor renewal last year imo.
Half the field didn't stay in the heavy ground. I'd expect a few of the younger ones, or maybe one from Ireland to improve past Long Run this year. |
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I think looking at the market it'll be Al Ferof for me at 14's but definately can't see Long Run being out the places
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People on here continue to knock LR, WHY? his form is bombproof never been out the frame in this country. Im sure some people made the same comments last year that horses would improve past him, it didn't happen and no reason to say it will this year he is only 8 not 11 so the best 'might' just be still to come.
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No one on this thread is having a go at Long Run.
The fact is that he is no longer the top staying chaser in the UK and Ireland. Fair enough, Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs may not run in this, but they improved past him to place in front of him in a Gold Cup, and SDC beat him in Ireland. Whilst there is no evidence to say any one of the young guns will beat him, they certainly have the ability to. Last years race was littered with non stayers on gluey ground. Champ Court, Cue Card, Riverside Theatre, Master Minded, Grands Crus. Will be a completely different race this year imo if the ground is different. Even Captain Chris isn't an out and out stayer |
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Well
So dont you think the same list of non stayers will turn up against him this year? You say yourself the 2 horses that beat him in this years GC are unlikely to turn up. He is still a young horse himself and better groung might just help as he clearly didnt stay the GC trip in gluey ground last year, but he got it better than nearly everything else.... |
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I certainly aint having a go at LR either,my point was that the respective prices of LR and Captain Chris are way out looking at the race last year.
I think LR has a fair chance of winning but at the prices CC is easily the value cos imo hes a fair chance of winning as well. One is about 6's the other 25!! |
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Robbo, I accept that of last years Gold Cup horses in the King George, he placed above the rest.
My point is, 2 horses improved past him last year, and there's nothing to say a different 2 can this year. Yes he's young, but he's a very high miler for his age. It only takes a split second for Mullins to send SDC or Nichols to send Conti. Al Ferof and Dynaste have better chances of staying compared to Master Minded and Champion Court imo. If the ground is good, it also gives Cue Card a better chance, and FL won the Bowl at Aintree if I remember correctly. So when you look at it, there is a lot of credible opposition this year, and that doesn't make LR a shoe in. |
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I think if the ground was gluey I'd be more tempted to back Long Run because looking at the market there's a few in there that certainly won't be getting 3 miles in a bog but on good jumping ground it could bring a few more into the equation. Certainly not knocking Long Run but even though he is a relatively young horse I think we've already seen the best of him, he looked like he would remain unbeaten for a long time his Gold Cup year but hasn't got that aura of invincibility about him now.
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Its a bit of a leap of faith with our wetter winters to assume the ground will be any different than it was last year. I for one don't think its going to be good. It easily be soft or heavy again and then the field would thin. CC ran a blinder to get as close as he did last time but there is no guarantee he would run to that form again. He has subsequently been well held by LR at different tracks. If LR is poor value at 7.0 then Cue Card is a true shocker on last year's performance and the evidence on here that he is a non-stayer.
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what evidence that he is a non stayer? If you think that he is going to run the same race in the KG again you really need to think again, two wins in Grade 1 and a decent second to the best chaser in training have happened since then
your 'evidence' is pretty flimsy if it's just the one run which happened to be only his second start out of Novices and first at 3 miles when he got lit up from the moment the tape went up and never settled from then til the petrol gauge went empty - never had a chance to settle you might be right about the price but the jury is firmly out(both the the trainer and jockey are sure he will stay fine) on whether he stays because no horse would stay after running with the choke out like that |
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Perhaps the biggest worry is him not even turning up for the KG, tizzard snr has said previous that he doesn't fancy it on testing ground as he thinks it's gruelling there in those conditions.
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that is true, certainly could not be entertained until the going is known
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I'd be surprised if Nicholls sent Conti. He said it wasn't his track last year. What's changed?
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which of the Oirish are likely to come?
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I'd say it's likely Mount Benbulben will be the only one, although I'd like to see Sir Des Champs or First Lieutenant make the trip.
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Do you think one or two may have improved past him?
First race of the season or not... |
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It looks like that his mistakes, where they didn't used to kill him off in races because of his abundant quality, are now going to prove more costly to him as he's just not as good as he used to be to compensate for them.
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Surely there must have been something wrong with the horse that clearly was more than the horse needing the run, if he trailed in 5 lengths behind in 4th after being out battled it would be a different matter but he was beaten turning for home. Far too premature to right him off after he clearly wasn't right.
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bound to be a shake up in the KG market now
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might be something wrong in the Henderson camp all his have under performed today.
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Might not see him again,Just rumours but RP posted something on their iphone app about a possible retirement then it got removed quick smart.
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They say it was a bad scope. I never saw the above comment until after i took 11/1 for the KG. I'd be dissapointed if they were spinning.
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Why don't they scope before the race?
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Nicholls on ATR stable tour has said Conti will definitely have a King George entry and it will be his big target after the Betfair, on the road to the Gold Cup
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Any link to that WC ?^^^^
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It was on the tv this afternoon mate called "Paul Nicholls Feature".
He said it was the obvious path, with a prep run between the KG and the GC. He said he's a year older and stronger than last year, and the fall should sharpen his jumping up. He also said Al Ferof is doing really well, and is looking the strongest he's ever had him. Will have a prep run at Ascot over 2m5f, which will put him spot on for the KG. Big Bucks won't be seen until January at the earliest, but wont be a problem to go straight to the World Hurdle. |
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cheers! very interesting indeed those two if they make it to the GC will certainly add interest. We say it every year bu it looks like being a fantastic race!
I would be sending SC to Cheltenham for some experience jumping the fences myself as it goes, you have the Argento for one |
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Perhaps Nicholls will at some stage clarify why Kempton will be Conti's course this year as opposed to last? He certainly jumped poorly when he was beaten by Grand Crus there.
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i think it could be the hard races and long career he has had may be taking their toll , has run in top class races all his career,and in these grade 1s there are very few " easys". the gold cup takes a hell of a lot out of a horse (just see how few repeat winners there are )and he has run in 3 gold cups plus 3 king georges ,he has had a lot battles most in soft or heavy ground .
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^^^^by the way i am not writing long run off,just highlighting that it is difficult to keep running to that high a standard !^^^
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