Bobs Worth 3-1 GC winner.

could easily be bigger on the day and can't realistically go off much shorter, plenty could change yet

so why take the risk unless you get nrnb or nrfb

5/2 nrfb available.
but as judo says,will he be shorter on the day??

Add in the fact that apart from Best Mate, no horse has won back to back Gold cups for over 40 years.  Wait for the day is sound advice.

I have backed him and take the view that he will be a short price come the big day.I don't think LR SC or SDC can beat Bobs at Cheltenham.Al ferof and Cue Card could be threats tho

I'm all for getting Ante Post bets on and remember backing Best Mate at 7-2 straight after hed won his first GC. I think 3-1 at this stage on Bob's Worth is poor .

the thing is he could easily miss the race, many do, and it could easily be a much deeper race than last year with

Al Ferof, Cue Card, Silviniaco, Harry Topper and others possible contenders meaning he will still be 3/1 on the day

Kauto Star went off 7/4 when he had a weaker field than BW will face

If you want to have the big bet, just save the money in a savings pot and have it on on the day without the risk of losing the stake before the race

To be fair the field could easily thin as much as it could get competitive. Silviniaco i thought was very unlucky, Al ferof we will wait and see but without these two its no stronger a GC than in previous years.

I have backed him and think he will b much shorter on the day

Only 2 that can beat him in my book (SC and SDC)- will never know where SC would av come last year but SDC was well held and i think personally SC would av been too

Cue Card the only outsider i could consider but i just dont think he'll run in the GC - can reassess if he wins the KG or summit

all about opinions innit

such are the physical demands of the gold cup repeat winners are quite rare ,i am no stats man but if i remember rightly even placed horses have not got a great record  of winning it the following year,ill let the stats boys correct me if i am wrong , bobs worth seems to do things the hard way i.e grinding it out ,he has had a few battles and could be vulnerable to an improver or he may have more to offer and buck the trend . is 3/1 value?  to be honest i dont think he will be much shorter on the day and a narrow  defeat on his debut or one of the trials and he may well drift out a touch ,he doesent win his races impressivley on the bridle, more workmanlike than flashily  so cant see him shortening too much.

I gives the visual impression of a grinder but he really isn't, he ultimately finishes his races off looking fresh and looking as if he could go even further quite happily.

I agree that things could go wrong with him physically, but I wouldn't be not backing him now on the strength of the opposition.

Surprised some on here think hes value to be honest.Yes,i agree at this stage hes the most likely winner,but we are in October and not one of the contenders has been seen yet.
Hes not a fashionable horse that will get backed and backed,and at 3/1 that's even less likely.
Putting the money in a savings account and going in on the day is sensible if you really fancy him,he wont be much different price on the day,and if things go wrong with him for whatever reason then no harm done financially.
No brainer imo.

Can't see any one coming out of the clouds it may be that 3-1 is very fair but the records books suggest it is horribly short.

Putting the money in a savings account and going in on the day is sensible if you really fancy him,he wont be much different price on the day,and if things go wrong with him for whatever reason then no harm done financially.

You can't know that he won't be much shorter on the day....he could easily hose up somewhere, rivals thin and end up money on.

Well of course I don't know for sure Howdi.Next time I will put imo........picky git

He aint the sort that hoses up mate,not IMO!!!! And I will be amazed if the rivals on the day do not keep him around his current price at least.

and then scope badly 3 days before and be scratched

it's all about risk vs reward, for me having money tied up from October with the risk of losing it if the horse is a non runner is
no value at all at 3/1 when there are complete unknowns in the mix

what happens to the price if he gets beat in the Betfair? Or if Al Ferof pisses up in the KG or any number of other things like Harry Topper winning the Charlie Hall by 10 lengths that could possibly happen

anyway, not recommended imo, lump on on the day if you think it's unbeatable, won't go off less than 5/2 in all probability

I agree him getting injured is my main worry.
He has only had six chase starts,so if you want an improver look no further than BW

know kauto did it but anyone got stats for previously  placed horses going for a win in the gold cup! tanks in advance!

buddeliea • October 24, 2013 5:44 PM BST
Well of course I don't know for sure Howdi.Next time I will put imo........picky gitLaugh

He aint the sort that hoses up mate,not IMO!!!! And I will be amazed if the rivals on the day do not keep him around his current price at least.

Not often I disagree with the great man but this is utter guess work and he had a pot shot at my quiz in the summer so I'm getting my own back.

hope you are well mate - looking forward to the real stuff now. Went to Cheltenham last Friday but the card was awful on the Friday and I'm no fan of their Showcase meeting.

ps/ Anyone know if Simonsig is going for the Paddy Power.

Yeh, fine mate, going to Cheltenham for the Bula in December,and first meeting of the season for me will be Ascot on the 22nd and 23rd.

No idea about Simonsig my friend, I have an opinion though,don't think he will run.

Cheers Budd.

For thoise thinking about Bobs Worth at 3-1. Simonsig was 3-1 for the Arkle las year same time and ended up with little competition and basically just having to hold his form.

but that ain't gonna happen in the Gold Cup, there will be plenty of opposition unlike the Arkle where there were few viable candidates at this stage

the difference in the GC is there are plenty of dark ones that might emerge and last season's staying Novices are yet to be tested


to make the risk of ante post rules worth taking the 3/1 then I would have to be sure that he would not be available at bigger than 7/4 when it goes NRNB

plus there will be all kinds of offers like money back if you are second to X, or free bet if you are on a faller and all that malarkey

3/1 no value at all under A/P rules imo

it might happen in the gold cup jud he may only have to hold his form to win gain comfortably pal.

where are these dark ones last years novices look **** to me

the winning comfortably is not the issue now is it? it's the variation in price vs risk of not getting a run + unknown level of opposition

yes, they may look rubbish, does not mean there isn't one that improves 30lb this year

and BW may well not have won if SC stood up, the line through Long Run makes it very tight between them

agreed but not many of them apart from SC can claim a legit excuse

weres dem statz?....................anyone ............pleeze!

what statz?

the ones about how previous  placed gold cup runners perform in future gold cups ! i know about kauto but have  any placed runners won the next season ? or season after

off the top of my head I believe only two horses that placed in the previous season's Gold Cup went on to win the next year in about 30+ years

Kauto Star and The Fellow

iirc that is, it's very difficult to do

but See More Business was unplaced then won it the next year so I would be more hopeful for SC than SDC and LR

the fellow didn't win the gold cup did he?

sorry he did 94 lost it for a minute

Looks clearly the most likely winner to me at this stage but it's a long time until March and I certainly don't think 3-1 is anything to get worked up about.

I agree he is the most likely winner at this stage but as not one of the trials has been run that is not saying much when you are talking 3/1

Bregawn won it the year after being runner up.

depends how you asses value! some might see 3/1 about the addmitedley likeliest winner at this time,but the risk outweighs the reward imo !

and imo!

someone else could be the most likely winner in as little as 4 weeks with another 3+ months to go

I think judorick is talking the sense here. The juice has got to be worth the squeeze. Why take 3-1 on about a 3-1 shot at this stage when you may be able to find 10-1 about what should be a 6-1 shot?

fair enough ^^^ but where the feck is this 10-1 about a 6-1 shot? and how do u know Bob isn't an evens about a 3-1 shot very strange post imo

@judorick, I can understand that don't think 3/1 is a great price and I am in two minds about it, but highly unlikely that someone will run in the next four weeks and dislodge bobs worth as favourite. There's only the betfair chase during that time to consider, not like SDC will be able to enhance his GC chances that much running against small fields in Ireland.

I think he will be fav for some time,probably till the race itself,but the price I just don't see shortening enough for 3 to be value in October.
He had one run before march last season beating Tidal Bay receiving weight and a repeat of that campaign  wont be enough to shorten that much.Maybe they will campaign him differently this season and give him a couple of runs(another unknown for the mix),but as ive said before he aint a horse that wows with his performances,gets the job done yes,but not imo in a way that gets people rushing to take that sort of price.
He has credible opposition in SConti and SDC from last years race,and has enough up and comers to make any wager at 3 a tad worrying - Al Ferof,Cue Card have to prove they stay of course and AF is coming back from injury as well,but they are 2 to be wary of,and we have novices improving from last season that could be anything!!
Then we have injury setbacks that may occur,bad weather that could interfere with preperations etc etc.
All in all I still cannot believe some think 3 is value right now!!!

an example  ,if i remember rightly big bucks  in the world hurdle a few years back ,was a very similar price to what he was ante post 3 months before the race ,bobs worthy  may shorten but i dont think it will be by as much to justify the risk . but one mans water is another mans wine as they say !good luck  .

I actually think the price is perfectly fine given his record but once you get to this low price level antepost it surely makes sense to wait until the day or at least wait until nrnb.

It would take an extreme set of results and/or injuries to rivals during the season for him to go off any shorter than 6/4.

amazes me how many times I see people talk only about the reward side of the equation in punting and very little about the risk

that is what it comes down to most of the time

I rarely bet below 5/1 in any race on the day let alone 4+ months in advance so 3/1 is just of no interest at all

I'm not sure about that uncle

I think it's a fair price.. SDS will take time to get going so his price will drift then there will be value in him after his first two runs, SC will drift after his first run because Paul Nichols can't get his string winning first time out, LR will place in the King George so he'll probably stay where he is, First Lieutenant will win a race or two so he'll probably shorten up but will be running in the wrong race again, Dynaste won't even turn up and who ever thinks Harry Topper is good enough to win needs to wake up. With all this going on BW will win a trial shorten up to 2s and then be 6/4 on the day as soon as Nicky Henderson opens up and says how wonderful he is and just behind him in his shadow Mick Fitz will echo all this like he always does

Pull your tongue out of my a... hole Gary. Dogs do that. You're not a dog, are ya Gary?

If you were a layer, I can't see you wanting to be any bigger. So in that sense it's a fair price. But from a backers point if view, as a few have said, it's just it an attractive option this far out. Will probably win and is definitely my main fancy, but no interest at the price this far out.

Was an easy winner in the end last year but can't help feeling he was less inconvenienced by the cut in the ground than SDS, and even though I backed BW last year, I think on better ground SDS will be a hell of a lot closer. Of course, no reason why the ground won't be the same again this year.

Can't see anyone coming from left field, although obviously if you could see them they wouldn't be left-field. Don' think any of the RSA lot are upto much. Maybe Benefficient could be one to break up last year's lot?