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Cheltenham Festival

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buddeliea
18 Oct 13 13:05
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Date Joined: 19 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 15,799 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Backed him at huge odds for the Queen Mother,and quiet nice price (380 for the Gold Cup, which realistically will be his aim I would think.
Really like this horse,any thoughts from anyone??
Reckon their will be loads of thoughts,but no mention of Grand Crus please,they are different horses you know.

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Replies: 39
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Oct 13 13:05
Laugh 38 for the Gold Cup!!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Oct 13 13:25
29s now budd youza moovin markitsLaugh
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Oct 13 17:58
Laugh
By:
judorick
When: 18 Oct 13 18:23
I say pretty much anything is possible with this horse

at least until it is proven otherwise

King George, beaten into 3rd to 6th place, onto Ryan Air would be my guess
By:
wellchief
When: 18 Oct 13 18:53
Ryanair would be my guess as well, although I'll have a little bit of that 380 if you'd like to get rid of some of it Wink

Not sure how strong the Jewson was last year (overall I think it was a poorish year for novice chasers last year), so I wouldn't be taking any of the bookies prices for any race at the moment.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Oct 13 19:05
Could well be underestimated this season,and whilst I can see the Ryanair as a possibility,i think he will prove Gold Cup material.Ended the season nicely with a good performance over 3m1,and with improvement out of novice company he could well be a threat over 3m2 at Cheltenham.
Will agree with Judo though,guessing game at the moment as to how good he will be.
Just have a feeling he will be better than a lot think.
By:
wellchief
When: 18 Oct 13 19:16
If they go the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he'll be racing off the same mark as Al Ferof did last year.

If they've got any ambition of the Gold Cup, Ryanair etc, I think they'll need a performance similar to Al Ferof, which I'm not too convinced he's got in him (although I've been proven wrong many times in the past).
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Oct 13 19:52
a general concensus that the novices of last season were a average or poor bunch time may prove they were right  ,but they could just be underestimated  we wont know untill a few have raced against the established stars,the jewson form and rsa may be undervalued because they were won by "outsiders" but as budd has shown massive prices available for horses with plenty of  room for improvement .
By:
judorick
When: 18 Oct 13 20:37
it's much more interesting innit? discussing the possibilities for all these up and comers I mean

knocks spots off the flat... and I've had a blinding flat season money wise

buzzing Happy
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 18 Oct 13 20:41
Dynaste well beaten in a weak Jewson. Not a prayer against the grown ups in the Ryanair or Gold Cup. Or are my eyes deceiving me ?
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 18 Oct 13 20:45
They need to try 2 miles or less than 2m4f imo
By:
iswearitsoath
When: 18 Oct 13 20:46
agree with HaylingBilly. Horse always tends to look impressive when winning but not entirely taken with the quality of opposition that he faced last campaign and i'll be looking to oppose him.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Oct 13 20:48
yes judo todays cheltenham meeting was sure to bring  the nh fans out of the woodwork, the threads will start to spring up and the arguments and disscussions will start to heat up as all roads lead to the festival Laugh
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Oct 13 20:50
and as if like magic it starts ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Oct 13 20:51
hayling how do we know the jewson was weak hayling
By:
judorick
When: 18 Oct 13 20:59
yes it has started with comments like 'a weak Jewson' which can be easily challenged by asking 'how do you know?'

does not generally pay to be too dogmatic till evidence is available, there have been no end of 'won't stay', 'can't get up the hill'
'not good enough' and other such statements that all proved incorrect going back over many years

I remember many saying Best Mate wouldn't stay for example
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 18 Oct 13 21:37
Lets not get too sensitive lads it is a forum. My opinion about a weak Jewson is based on the fact it was won by horse that nobody fancied @ 20/1 and a 100/1 nag was placed 3rd. And all this in a G2 race that will be a G1 this year. So my view is that if Dynaste cant win a Jewson with such a weak bunch opposing he has zero chance this year in Ryanair or Gold Cup. Seriously. Zero chance. Its an opinion.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 18 Oct 13 21:42
I am checking my thinking out of respect for you guys but nothing here is making me think again.......HappyHappyHappy


              HORSE/SP    AGE    WGT    TRAINER/JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR    

«    1          Benefficient (IRE) 20/1    7    11-4 h1    A J Martin    147    *    *    »
Bryan Cooper
        

«    2    3¼      Dynaste (FR) 11/8F    7    11-4     David Pipe    161    *    *    »
Tom Scudamore
        

«    3    1      Changing Times (IRE) 100/1    7    11-4 t    Nigel Twiston-Davies    140    *    *    »
Sam Twiston-Davies
        

«    4    nk      Module (FR) 16/1    6    11-4 t    Tom George    145    *    *   
Paddy Brennan
        

«    5    nk      Captain Conan (FR) 5/1    6    11-4     Nicky Henderson    152    *    *    »
Barry Geraghty
        

«    6    10      Third Intention (IRE) 25/1    6    11-4 t    Colin Tizzard    151    *    *    »
Joe Tizzard
        

«    7    nk      Texas Jack (IRE) 11/1    7    11-4     Noel Meade    146    *    *   
P Carberry
        

«    8    15      Molotof (FR) 25/1    6    11-4     Nicky Henderson    152    *    *    »
A P McCoy
        

«    9    3¼      Sire Collonges (FR) 20/1    7    11-4     Paul Nicholls    146    *    *    »
Daryl Jacob
        

«    10    ¾      Argocat (IRE) 22/1    5    11-3     T J Taaffe    146    *    *    »
Davy Russell
        

«    11    3¾      Aupcharlie (IRE) 15/2    7    11-4     W P Mullins    148    *    *    »
A E Lynch
        

«    F          Marito (GER) 12/1    7    11-4     W P Mullins    141    *    *    »
R Walsh
        

«    PU          Desert Cry (IRE) 100/1    7    11-4     Donald McCain    142    *    *    »
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Oct 13 21:57
yes billy all about opinions its what the game is about !
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 18 Oct 13 22:01
Nohing better than a Friday night opinion eh.......Excited
By:
wellchief
When: 18 Oct 13 23:04
I have to agree with you Billy.  The step up in class from the Jewson to the Ryanair is huge, and Beneficient beat him fair and square (who has been beaten a number of times in Ireland).

I understand the theory of a step up to 3m might bring out large improvement (like a King George or Betfair Chase), and he was impressive at Aintree, but I think his card is marked over 2m4.

On the face of it, there's nothing wrong with saying it looked like a weak Jewson.  In my opinion, the quality of the top 3 of Beneficient, Dynaste and Changing Times are about on par with the trio of 2011 of Noble Prince, Wishful Thinking and Loosen My Load; and certainly weaker than the 2012 crop of Sir Des Champs, Champion Court and For Non Stop.
By:
duffy
When: 19 Oct 13 00:43
I think he's an interesting chance for the KG (sorry Budd but I'm going to mention GCGrin), with hindsight it does look now like dynaste was in the wrong race at the festival with the failure at the shorter trip and bouncing back over 3+ at aintree, could it be that the connections themselves had the experience of GC from the previous year in their thoughts when choosing the jewson?

I couldn't have him over 2 miles,in the jewson he was just racing a tad quicker than he wanted to be going and was forced into a few mistakes and because of this , at the end of the race he couldn't pick up but did stay on right to the line. Over the 3 the next time it was a completely different horse, he was able to travel and jump unhurried and came right away at the end because of it, at this moment in time I'd be more interested in him for the GC itself than the Ryanair, the likes of cue card will have him on his head in that.
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Oct 13 07:00
Yep,totally agree and would be quiet surprised if he were to end up in the Ryanair.He looks to have improved for the step up to 3m 1 at Aintree,and I expect him to be campaigned with the goal of the Gold Cup in mind.
Whether hes good enough is another thing,and those that point to a weak Jewson etc could be proved correct,but really we are never sure how weak or strong a novice race is till the following season,not for sure anyway.

I knew this horse would be a good one for debate,part of the reason why I started the thread,hes probably a like him or dislike him sort of horse,much like his stable mate(whats his name again DuffyLaugh)although unlike Dynaste he was probably overestimated - perhaps that's where the underestimation of Dynaste comes from!!.
By:
shockster
When: 20 Oct 13 18:45
I like Dynaste also and have backed him for the Gold Cup. Def think he needs 3m and the King George looks made for him and will be a good horse that beats him.

I am sure D.Pipe earlier this week on RUK said he and Grands Cru will start at Wetherby.  One in the 3m Hurdle and the other in the Charlie Hall, but no decision on which just yet.
By:
Smart Predator
When: 21 Oct 13 19:45
If Pipe got a run into him between the kg and the Jewson I reckon he would of won the weak Jewson but as it happens the Jewson put him spot on for aintree.. I hope dp doesn't make the same mistake this year as he done the same with grand crus when he won the feltham. It's a massive stat that horses need a prep before the festival.. Apart from quevega and bobs worth which are in a different league anyway.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Oct 13 07:51
Well Dynaste will be in the Charlie Hall then,if that's the case Shockster,and that could set him up nicely for the KG.
Don't see any mileage in running him over hurdles and GC over fences....for both horses!!
By:
shockster
When: 22 Oct 13 09:46
I'd agree with you Budd, but was an article out yesterday saying Grands Crus was being aimed at the Charlie Hall?
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Oct 13 12:06
Really??
Well I guess Dynaste could have a prep over hurdles,but I would think Grand Crus has had enough over fences!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Oct 13 08:51
DYNASTE, ante-post favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on November 16, will miss Wetherby this Saturday but could start his season off in the Grade 3 trainer David Pipe has revealed.

change of mind it seems - Paddy Power for his 1st race this season by the looks of it.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Dec 13 12:17
Well I think hes proved with his run in the Betfair that hes a lively one for the Gold Cup,see how he gets on in the KG next week.
By:
buddeliea
When: 09 Jan 14 07:54
Was a tad despondent watching the KG,but that was not his running,and has since been found to be injured.
Will give him another chance if he can recover ok. Still think hes an interesting one and can be backed nrnb at decent odds.
By:
dwm767
When: 09 Jan 14 09:52
Over fences he's beaten Fingal Bay, Court In Motion, Hadrian's Approach and Third Intention. His 2nd to Cue Card at Haydock was a fine effort, but his record suggest he's at his best first time out, and it's possible that's as good as he is. Excuses at Kempton, you're right to ignore that run, but for the life of me I can't find what he's done to suggest he's worth backing to win the Gold Cup.
By:
buddeliea
When: 09 Jan 14 12:26
Just think the Jury is still out on this one. He could well still have a bit of improvement to come and if he has then his Haydock run puts him in with an outside chance.
He has to improve though I realise that, but at the odds and nrnb I think it worth the risk.
By:
shockster
When: 09 Jan 14 12:50
I agree bud and backed him at 16/1, but I don't fancy him at all for the Ryanair.  Wasn't fast enough against the novices LY so can't have him against the best 2.5 milers TY.  Maybe 3m2f will suit but he might be an in between distance horse.  Def can't write him off though after 1 run when he wasn't right.
By:
ACStafford
When: 09 Jan 14 13:11
16/1?? He's available at 33/1 nrnb. Or do you mean you backed him prior to the King George?
By:
shockster
When: 09 Jan 14 13:21
Prior to KG AC.  I'm daft but not that daft.Silly
By:
ACStafford
When: 09 Jan 14 13:23
Lol. Fair enough. 3/1 seems a generous price now when you factor in nrnb. Will surely go off shorter if he runs.
By:
ACStafford
When: 09 Jan 14 13:23
Erm... 33/1 rather.
By:
shockster
When: 14 Jan 14 11:17
Dynaste is on target to run at the Cheltenham Festival despite still receiving treatment after returning from his run in the King George sore behind.

David Pipe's grey ran a storming race on his seasonal reappearance when second to Cue Card in the Betfair Chase.

However, he never looked that happy at Kempton on Boxing Day and while his condition is improving, he is still not quite ready to return.

Pipe has given his inmate entries in both the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase, and an outing in March remains the plan.

"I am able to give you an update on Dynaste following his run in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day," wrote Pipe in his blog on www.davidpipe.com.

"He is improving steadily (but is not yet 100%) and is still receiving regular treatment from Mary Bromiley.

"He has been given an entry in the Ryanair Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup at the Festival and he is still very much on target to run in one of those contests."
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