Cheltenham Festival
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jezki,currently between 11 and 12-1 for the champion hurdle is a massive price,watch the supreme again and his jockey switched to the inside after losing ground on the turn,flattened the last and would beat the front 2 if the race was run again,champagene fever wont even be in it !
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You've explained why Jezki is the price he is.
Backed him in the Supreme myself, and may yet back him e/w at the price. Its the jockey that's holding the price up. I don't think Power is that confident at Cheltenham...I backed Oscars Well in the Neptune the other year too. Get the feeling that if Power were a bit more sure of the horse under him he'd have a nice festival hurdle win to his name. Seems to be able to do it in slower races, but the fast paced hurdles races have caught him out. JP would do well to get him lined up with more rides over the winter at Cheltenham to add to his experience |
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its a pity geraghty probably wont be able to ride,i can see jezki winning 2 or 3 in ireland and being about 3-1 come the day !
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I see the thinking here and also liked his run last year; he ran a good deal better than I thought and didn't get the run of the race either. That said, I'm far from sure that he would have won under different circumstances. I think he was probably third best, but it was a very good race and represented a step forward on his previous form so it's not crazy by any means to think he can continue improving and end up the best horse in the race. However, I thought he might be a bit bigger than 12-1 to be honest, and agree with The_LUFCwaffe that it seems about right. In terms of pure value, Rock On Ruby at 25-1 or more is bordering on insulting.
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If they all turn up this year I think it will be a changing of the guard race for me. I think potentially Jezki and My tent are very special. Rarely if ever do the first three kick the others off the track the way they did in the supreme race this year. I like em both. I like em a lot. I can't separate them and can see valid reasons for either to progress slightly further than the other. Then there are folk saying Our Conor is the reincarnation of Pegasus.
Should be some race. |
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And you've missed the winner from last year's novice brigade! Should be a sensational race.
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Indeed Tom.
The New One is my main play in the Champion Hurdle, but will probably stick Jezki into the e/w accas when I finally start to place those sort of bets. |
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Supreme has the worst record of producing Champion Hurdle winners of any race at the Festival so I will surprised if any of those that ran in it end up winning
that's not to say they are not very nice horses (backed Jezki at Punchestown, tweeted it too) just they are not the types to win it. I can hear the famous words "ah but these are different..." we shall see |
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That's the beauty of the game gentlemen. TNO disappointed me that he couldn't get past Zarkandar at Aintree grand sort that that one is and potentially very interesting if now stepped up in trip.
You are right Judorick that this time is different is a very dangerous thing to say but I do like the first three from last year. Do you have an opinion on the radically quicker time of the supreme compared to champion. Did you think they went too quickly in the champion, just paced it better in the supreme or was it perhaps more controversially a better race than the champion itself in your view? |
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@LUFCwaffe, TNO is my main play in the champion this year loved that cheltenham performance this year and think he will improve again. The novice performance against Zarkander was top class and I have always thought you need the ability to stay further than 2m in a truely well run affair. I am loathed to abandon Hurricane after he came up trumps and I love the horse to bits after this year's renewal. Just can see another year being very tough for him to handle. I say that with genuine affection for what he achieved this year, he will be remembered as one of the greats.
Have to agree on Jezki also, he looks a bit of value against MTOY as stepping up from Novice company they both have scope to improve and the prices are wildly different, Our conner looks short enough considering we have no idea how good any of those horses were in that race |
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ROR butchered himself and those immediately behind him in the CH, HF picked up the pieces.
Perhaps it was therefore disappointing that TNO couldn't beat Zark after Zark himself had endured a very very tough race in the CH. |
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maybe the neptune wasnt as good as people think,the ground had gone against the likes of pont alexandre and taquin de seuil !
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Binocular was 2nd in the Supeme and then took two goes to win a Champion (failing when hot favourite the 1st time) - think MTOY could be similar.
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I do feel the front 4 in the supreme will prove to be top class animals and wouldn't be put off by backing a horse for the champion from the previous years supreme and at first glance Jezki does look a bit of value but I have this nagging doubt whether Cheltenham will be his track...... I hope they run him there again before march possibly in the race zarkandar won last year beating grandouet and ROR, I know it's a different track but the more experience of the place the better imo
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huge lay imo. top class form everyone only 2 blips both at Cheltenham.
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Was third in that supreme novices a blip??
Two mistakes over the last 2 and a 3lb penalty on his back. Easier ways to make 7.5% over 6 months (especially on goodish ground) I always find it strange when posters say huge lay without any reference to price. |
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I love this horse and I rate the supreme so very highly and at 5 there should be plenty to come. Put a real jockey on his back and who knows but he is 0 from 2 at the track. MTOY I just feel is going to be difficult to beat on anything approaching decent ground.
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i think you can ignore the bumper run at cheltenham,and considering he hit the last 2 hurdles and should have came down the outside in the supreme,he is good value,especially when jezki wins a couple of races in ireland before it,does cheltenham really suit mtoy,was it really a blip to get beat a length howdi !
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judorick
30 Sep 13 23:57 Joined: 27 Nov 11 Supreme has the worst record of producing Champion Hurdle winners of any race at the Festival ^^^ I reckon the 4m chase has a worse record of producing Champion Hurdle winners  |
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dj876 • October 2, 2013 10:00 PM BST
Was third in that supreme novices a blip?? Two mistakes over the last 2 and a 3lb penalty on his back. Easier ways to make 7.5% over 6 months (especially on goodish ground) I always find it strange when posters say huge lay without any reference to price. take it as read I had price in mind i'm not a half wit  |
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ps he was beaten more than a length!
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marychain1 • October 3, 2013 10:23 AM BST
judorick 30 Sep 13 23:57 Joined: 27 Nov 11 Supreme has the worst record of producing Champion Hurdle winners of any race at the Festival ^^^ I reckon the 4m chase has a worse record of producing Champion Hurdle winners Wink  |
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2 length then howdi,we will see in march lol !
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howdi's 3
Our Connor The New One H. Fly |
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in that order
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Like the horse a lot,but wont be backing him with R.Power on board as he isnt any good!
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I too backed Jezki in the Supreme. To me he ran as if he might just have needed the run. Plus I agree with other people who say Geraghty rather than Power on board is a major plus to the chances of the horse continuing to take higher rank.
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agree with the op on jeski ,seriously impressive at punchestown and would have been closer in the supreme but for switching and landing flatfooted at the last,barry gerhaty impressed by punchestown win and seems very keen on him and putting himself up for the ride if ap rides mytent took some 11.5 on here this morning looks fair value to me !
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OUR CONNOR WILL EAT HIM!
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I like Jezki but don't really see him as value. Beaten fair and square by MTOY in the Supreme, and then has to prove he can step up a level to mix it with the big boys. I'm also unsure cheltenham will ever see him produce his best. Not saying he doesn't handle the track, but don't think it will bring out the best in him. Which it would need to for him to win a champion. Could see him running a gallant race to finish about 4th.
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jezki down to run over the weekend !
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Exciting that the major contenders are now either on the go or about to start! A very exciting prospect
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Think he has the potential to be the best 2m hurdler in Ireland this season. The running style of these races on soft ground will suit him brilliantly imo.
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Think that being the best in ireland could apply to Un De Sceaux and Annie Power as well mate,and maybe Our Conor although not so sure about him to be honest.
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a massive plus for me would be if bjg secured the ride on jeski and quite possible given mcoy likely for mtoy .
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As last year, they will all have to improve to usurp the excellent Hurricane Fly.
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Think this season is the start of a new era.
Thought HF was starting to look a tad vulnerable last season,and im pretty sure this years lot are a lot better than last years. |
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Didn't look vulnerable to me. Cruised home at Punchestown and won the Champion decisively despite Ruby getting his timing all wrong.
Not off the bridle in any race other than the Champion. |
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He was niggling him in the CHurdle,werent like that the previous year he won,
Look,i aint totally writing him off,i have just seen signs that to me tell me hes STARTING to wane,and he don't need that with this years lot to contend with. He is what he is,and I really think this season he will be caught and passed by the new brigade,or some of them,just wish I knew who. If i'm being unfair to the horse and he stuffs them all-fair enough. |
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That does seem to be the consensus, buddleia, as TNO and Our Conor are shorter than him, with MTOY close behind. Just wonder if 6/1 the Fly might not seem like a wonderful bet once a bubble or two have been pricked. I suppose the other way of looking at it is that if the Fly gets turned over in Ireland during the winter, then 6/1 at a course he's never shone at the way he does at home will be tight. A great prospect ahead of us this winter, with the potential to be one of the most fascinating Champions for a long time.
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