Cheltenham Festival
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god knows!!!!!!!!!!!
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he beat cue card by less than he did in the arkle and i very much doubt flemenstar ran to his best rating in soft in ireland, so no need to change his rating based on today, unless it's down
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will let you know Howdi when I've done it
I had him 190 before today |
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Gordon surely you can see he could of beat CC by more than the official distance easily if BG wanted to?
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Yes he probably could have, but the same could have been said in the arkle (in terms of trying to base SS form relative to CC) and although this was more CC distance than the arkle (as evidenced by CC Ryanair win over another very good animal FL), I don't think SS rating can be increased over that from the Champion Chase where the field (on paper) was deeper than today,
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Im no expert when it comes to ratings, but I aint sure either about increasing it after today. Think it needs a top horse to get him extended for his rating to get much higher, and I aint sure theres any horse around to do that!!
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^^^ top horses were there today Buddeliea and he beat them with his head in his chest. Who else is there left for him to take on?
Bring back Kauto from his new career break dancing  |
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Peddlers cross/Al ferof(bad mistake admittedly)/Sanctuaire/Sizing europe/Cue Card and Flemenstar(over their ideal distance/Flemenstar looks to need softer ground admittedly) all who were supposed to give SS a race but everytime he beats them on the bridle,then all of a sudden he's beat nothing.
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exactly Howdi, he cannot get his rating much higher, both Flemenstar and Finians did not run to their best, Cue Card did I think but SS has already beaten him more or less the same as he did today.
Maybe if BG raced him from further out and he won by a distance?? But he wont be doing that. |
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My comments not aimed directly at anyone on this thread btw
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its not that hes beaten nothing, its the fact that hes so much better than those hes faced, and there don't seem to be better horses around to get his rating much higher.
so unless he wins by half the track, how does his rating increase by much?? |
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i've already explained below why i don't think his rating can be increased after today but to answer one of the other questions, there are at least 3 ways he could increase his rating
a) beat simonsig 10+ lengths in the tingle creek b) take on flemenstar in ireland over 2.5m c) win off top weight in the betvictor at ascot giving two stone to decent horses - a la dessie anyone think nicky is up to the challenge because it's perfectly possible the horse is but I suspect we won't see it |
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Not sure anyone knows how good the horse can be, at teh end of the day there hasn't been a horse in training that's been able to get him off the bridle since he went chasing.
Not sure his mark can be upped for todays performance, if the 'capper thought he should be raised he'd probably have to raise Cue Card too who I think ran off 170 today and despite being a very good 2.5 mile horse, I don't think is better than 170 |
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you have to use collateral form guys, nothing is good enough to get him off the bridle so you need to look at the collateral form of the horses he beats and form an opinion
or use speed ratings as I do I had Cue Card EASILY on 179 before today based on speed ratings and that performance today was worth 20 points more than CC today... question I have is 'how fast did Cue Card run today?' I don't know the answer yet but whatever it was Sprinter Sacre will be 20 points (well actually 19.5) higher for todays race |
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Cue Card is an absolute monster of a horse and Sprinter laughed at him
Amazing |
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yup when you think how far Flemenstar and FR were behind CC today and how far FL and Menorah were in the Ryan Air (9 lengths)
yet SS dispatches CC like he is slow! awesome machine |
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Gordon - there isn't a handicap for him...sadly, the VC has been a level weights affair for quite a few years.
We'd sure find out a lot if it was a handicap again...Azertyuiop & Flagship Uberalles lost NOTHING in defeat, and their reputations were in fact enhanced! |
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trouble with handicaps is apart from a couple of horses everything in training would be out of the handicap, not sure we would learn much
which trainer would put their best horses up against him in a hcp? |
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JR - meeting Cue Card, Finian's Rainbow et al (in receipt of a stone or so) should at least get him off the bridle...I can't believe YOU wouldn't want to see that race.
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Cant wait to read Judoprick's speed ratings.
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rumour has it that sprinter went so fast today that judorick's speed rating computer overheated
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 I'll let you know Howdi, will be after the weekend prob |
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He is currently 188 I believe, and the way he wins his races against the best around suggests he should be higher, but the official handicapper has to guess somewhat if he is to increase his rating after yesterday imo.
Finians is struggling now and no way was that Flemenstars true form, so as said before that leaves Cue Card, and he beat him fairly similar to the Arkle imo. Although admittedly over further which would have suited Cue Card more. Guessing, I would say he will go into the low nineties, go for 192. |
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well if SS was committed to run, victor i'm sure could arrange for it to be a handicap again
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how on earth people could say nearly 200 is beyond me looool! I'd have Cue Card 174 about the same as all the best staying chasers about at the moment bar Bobs Worth 180ish. So to say Sprinter Sacre could carry another 25 pounds and finish in the same position is bs.
Aintree form with horses coming off the back of Cheltenham isn't worth rating anyway imo, they've already peaked for the season. |
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was distinctly pedestrian I'm afraid and can't be regarded as a top performance - weird, with the collateral form (FL, Menorah etc) you would think that it would be a good effort
I can't upgrade him on this race. Slower than both the QMCC and the Ryan Air. Maybe Cue Card should have gone faster right from the start. Watered going may have had some effect, I dunno. Not a quick time though for sure |
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Hilarious going report for Friday. Officially 'good' yet the top rated chaser and another very high class runner can't get closer to standard than 18 seconds - which makes the going soft based on time. Maybe the course was longer due to rail movement but when you consider they averaged 15 seconds per furlong they would have had to moved the start back a furlong to get them running 18 secs slower than standard if the going was really good
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lets have your ratings juddy
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Let's have an end of season 2 mile handicap over the national fences with a big pot
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lol barry im with you on 6 months with nothing to do now
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can only rate it around 130 on time, very slow race on overall time
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I'd love to see him take on and win the Paddy Power off top weight. Never happen though.
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can't be easy to come up with an accurate speed rating with just 2 races on the chase course that day.
I read somewhere Dynaste ran from 3 out to the line quicker than SS but that is not surprising as the pace was not as fast in that race. Finian's travelled nicely but probably not back to his best and the pace and trip and ground still softer than ideal looking at times was probably too much for his stamina so hard to say what he's run to and Flemenstar may not have been at his best either. It is tempting to give the race a massive rating when first looking at it but probably safer to say Cue Card ran similar to his cheltenham run and leave SS at his current rating. |
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yes stevie gerrard, no evidence that anything needs to be changed assuming finian and flemenstar both ran way below form
let's say cue card ran to roughly the ryan air (176 for me) and sprinter is a stone better = 190 no change |
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SS is a spectacle to behold for sure.
It's quite easy to work out his rating - how much weight do you think he could give Masterminded, Moscow Flyer and Azertioup in a race before he became a joint favourite. They were OR's of 186, 180, 178 respectively. 185+ seems about right - his current OR by the BHA is 188. THIS IS A MASSIVE NUMBER! His form is held together by 170 rated Cue Card. I am fed up with all this winning on the bridle talk - his legs are going pretty hard in his races so it is not right to assume there is much more left IMHO.... which is hardly surprising at the level he is running at. |
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I think the 188 is the correct mark. I know Sizing Europe is not the horse he was based on the horses he's beaten in Ireland. The mark of 188 is based on his Champ Chase win and is correct.
Timeform mark is a joke at this stage tbh. Sprinter will get to that mark I'm sure but to award it after the Champ Chase is premature. |
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BJG seems in favour of taking him to Punchestown if he is well. I suspect we won't see him again until the Tingle Creek.
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I will go against the grain here and say that I hope he doesn't turn up at Punchestown as he's done enough for the season in my view - a trip to Ireland will prove nothing (he'll beat trees) and it's also possible that being at a peak for so long (and winning so effortlessly) might be concealing a few possible chínks in his armour.
Sorry to the Irish who deserve to see our best (as they always do likewise) but he might be more vulnerable here than many would imagine. Remember how Master Minded was very lucky to scramble home from Big Zeb? The latter handed the race to him on a plate despite not really being in the same class. Another great, Moscow Flyer came unstuck as well, and although he was hitting pensioner status, that defeat (to a far inferior opponent) came after two comfortable victories at Cheltenham & Aintree. I want to see Sprinter Sacre remain unbeaten over fences for as long as he can, tested to the hilt (with a possible crack at the King George) and for him to be at his best every time he races. Normally I'm all for seeing the best horses run frequently, but at this moment, I want to savour the memories of this exceptional fencer (remaining unbeaten) for as long as I can, and I hope he can beat Big Buck's sequence over the next couple of seasons. |
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I did expect a few comments disagreeing with me about Sprinter Sacre overlooking Punchestown, as most would assume there'd be very little chance of him losing, and as he's only had four runs this season, he could then have months of running around in a field over the Summer.
Maybe my comments about those other two giants in Moscow Flyer & Master Minded struggling badly at Punchestown have alerted some people to the fact that this mightn't be the formality that most anticipate. Judorick - it's this kind of trend that I really pay attention to as there's solid reasoning behind it...a bit like the St.Leger trials stat. |