Cheltenham Festival
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18 Mar 13
10:41
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Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Champion Hurdle
2 X My Tent Or Yours 10/1
2 X The New One 8/1
My Tent Or Yours was produced to beat Champagne Fever but came up short. That isn't good enough to be winning a Champion Hurdle. Will almost certainly mop up some flat track trials, reduce in price and then come up short again. The New One won a ridiculously slowly run Neptune easily out sprinting a bunch of stayers. He is a more viable candidate but is there any great value in taking a couple of points more than Our Conor? Sometimes there is little point trying to avoid the obvious and that is Our Conor.
Gold Cup
Boston Bob 25/1
Cue Card 25/1
Sir Des Champs 8/1
Boston Bob might have won the RSA but this year's novices have a mountain to climb. Cue Card is classy but has serious jumping and stamina issues. He looks a very unlikely runner - par for the course for Segal. Sir Des Champs ran well in the Gold Cup but there is nothing to suggest he is likely to turn the tables with Bobs Worth. Bobs Worth is short but he is far the most likely winner.
We shall see but I think we have seven pundits trying ever so hard to be clever and coming up with nothing but a waste of two pages.
2 X My Tent Or Yours 10/1
2 X The New One 8/1
My Tent Or Yours was produced to beat Champagne Fever but came up short. That isn't good enough to be winning a Champion Hurdle. Will almost certainly mop up some flat track trials, reduce in price and then come up short again. The New One won a ridiculously slowly run Neptune easily out sprinting a bunch of stayers. He is a more viable candidate but is there any great value in taking a couple of points more than Our Conor? Sometimes there is little point trying to avoid the obvious and that is Our Conor.
Gold Cup
Boston Bob 25/1
Cue Card 25/1
Sir Des Champs 8/1
Boston Bob might have won the RSA but this year's novices have a mountain to climb. Cue Card is classy but has serious jumping and stamina issues. He looks a very unlikely runner - par for the course for Segal. Sir Des Champs ran well in the Gold Cup but there is nothing to suggest he is likely to turn the tables with Bobs Worth. Bobs Worth is short but he is far the most likely winner.
We shall see but I think we have seven pundits trying ever so hard to be clever and coming up with nothing but a waste of two pages.
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the supreme and neptune fields looked far stronger than the triumph imho
I fancy My Tent or Yours. I think the Supreme form will hold up very well, especially given the time it was run in. He was a bit keen in the supreme which probably hurt his chances of getting up the hill but the winner and 3rd will both turn out to be excellent imo. I seem to remember a certain Binocular getting produced to win a supreme but not winning. I wouldn't be writing him off on that fact alone.
Binocular took two goes to win it after his Supreme near miss - he again got narrowly outstayed/outbattled up the hill in his first Champion Hurdle (won by Punjabi). Could even see him doing a Harchibald and being on the bridle half way up the run and still getting beat.
Yes but MTOY got beat by shorter and pulled harder than Binocular did. He also won't have the 5 year old stat to overcome.
I will be backing The New One through the year as I see him as the most likely winner at this stage. The Neptune often produces the more viable Champion Hurdle candidate. If ROR is going chasing and Zark and Countrywide going over further then we have a 10year old as the option from the Chdl.
The bookies love it. People backing unproven animals 360 days before the race and the media doing their best to encourage them.
^ completely agree - I went through the markets yesterday and there was nothing that appealed to me.
I do like Cue Card and his profile is not dissimilar to Imperial Commander before he won the Gold Cup but he can wait for now.
Boston Bob is a particularly humorous Gold Cup selection - he's been beaten at the Festival twice, has run in three chases and will be 9 next spring.
Some will say he's been unlucky twice but the best horses tend to get the job done (see Worth, Bob's 3/3).
I do like Cue Card and his profile is not dissimilar to Imperial Commander before he won the Gold Cup but he can wait for now.
Boston Bob is a particularly humorous Gold Cup selection - he's been beaten at the Festival twice, has run in three chases and will be 9 next spring.
Some will say he's been unlucky twice but the best horses tend to get the job done (see Worth, Bob's 3/3).
What jumping issues are there with Cue Card, hmmm. He loves Cheltenham and has some of the best form around. He has always performed well there. Made one novicey error at Newbury when he unseated JT but since then has been fine.
Stamina is as yet unproven but he has not been tested at 3 miles under preferred conditions (good ground, front running ride) and until then cannot be discounted for sure. The King George was a write off from the moment the tapes went up unfortunately but they have learnt the lesson (has to front run). He is quick enough to lead any field at 20f + and should be ridden from the front - the question will be can he maintain the gallop against top notchers at longer trips. Will be interesting to find out when they eventually try. As I said on another thread, they have the perfect opportunity at Aintree if they wanted to find out if he stays - run in the Bowl under Grade 1 penalty against inferior opposition whilst he is at peak fitness, rather than stepping up when he is short of fitness at the start of the season.
They might think 2015 is the year to aim him at the Gold Cup but he could be over the top by then and possibly could face stronger younger rivals. Go for it I say. 25s with VC free bet if NR = worth a pop.
Sir Des Champs missed his chance this year and Boston Bob is a no hoper.
MTOY should go chasing where he could be smart and The New One will be a serious force in Grade 1 hurdles next year especially on good ground. Superb turn of foot and the 2 mile division will be weak next year if several of the placed horses from this year go chasing (Zark, CF, ROR, CorA)
Stamina is as yet unproven but he has not been tested at 3 miles under preferred conditions (good ground, front running ride) and until then cannot be discounted for sure. The King George was a write off from the moment the tapes went up unfortunately but they have learnt the lesson (has to front run). He is quick enough to lead any field at 20f + and should be ridden from the front - the question will be can he maintain the gallop against top notchers at longer trips. Will be interesting to find out when they eventually try. As I said on another thread, they have the perfect opportunity at Aintree if they wanted to find out if he stays - run in the Bowl under Grade 1 penalty against inferior opposition whilst he is at peak fitness, rather than stepping up when he is short of fitness at the start of the season.
They might think 2015 is the year to aim him at the Gold Cup but he could be over the top by then and possibly could face stronger younger rivals. Go for it I say. 25s with VC free bet if NR = worth a pop.
Sir Des Champs missed his chance this year and Boston Bob is a no hoper.
MTOY should go chasing where he could be smart and The New One will be a serious force in Grade 1 hurdles next year especially on good ground. Superb turn of foot and the 2 mile division will be weak next year if several of the placed horses from this year go chasing (Zark, CF, ROR, CorA)
To be fair to the RP journo's they have limited choices to select from. I'd like to see all the graded races priced up now and I'm sure most people could find a better bet
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