Cheltenham Festival
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16 Mar 13
01:10
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27 Dec 08
how do you explain the huge difference?
What going allowance do you come up with for these 2 races?
The average of the 2, gives CF a very big number, and HF a poor one, or 2 different going allowances?
What going allowance do you come up with for these 2 races?
The average of the 2, gives CF a very big number, and HF a poor one, or 2 different going allowances?
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what were the times
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CF 3.55.60
HF 3.59.35 3.5 secs quicker. I've never known in recent years such a difference. |
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3.75 secs to be precise!
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the only explanation I had was that the ground was unraced on when CF won the Supreme but had been opened up by the time of the Champion
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the only explanation I had was that the ground was unraced on when CF won the Supreme but had been opened up by the time of the Champion
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that's what I'm thinking, 2 seperate going allowances for each race.
Simon Rowlands of Timeform said the mid-race pace of the CH caused the final time to be so slow. I have the Supreme slow 25 lengths/mile and the Champion Hurdle slow 34 lengths/mile..too big a difference. |
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Or you could post the sectional times and you'd get your answer.
The Champion was run at a very fast early and middle section pace. So they were getting tired in the last section. |
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It's down to the fact how hard they went in the middle part of the Champion Hurdle, Noel went very hard in the middle part where as Ruby set a more even gallop on Champagne Fever in the Supreme
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Could be that the form of the form of the Supreme is very strong. That's the most likely explanation.
Don't think Hurricane Fly quickened like he has in the past. Plus he had a few worrying strides in the middle of the race and now Mullins is talking about running him in France over 3m 1f. The ground has tipped it in Hurricane Fly's favour this year, run the Champion Hurdle today and I think Rock On Ruby might edge it. All opinions but that's mine. In a year, a lot of the build-up could centre on Hurricane Fly's ageing years and whether or not he possesses his old speed. In 2 years, he might even be running in the Stayers. That's where Hardy Eustace ended up. Fair play to him, great horse and he deserved a second Champion Hurdle. Might have been his third/fourth but for injuries. |
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going opened up by 12 horses = 3+secs diff
 ...smell the coffee lads |
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what SF you give CF & HF duncan?
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It wasn't a slow race, well, apart from the end bit, between the 2nd and 3rd hurdles up hill, fehily put the hammer down and went a full 3 secs quicker than the supreme, that killed them late on and walsh that kept an even pace through-out towed them to a faster time.
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That's why zark was knackered at the end because jacob was so determined to keep his horse in touch (without realizing that fehily was absolutely killing them with his early fractions) that he used absolutely everything up....yeh, zark wanted a strong pace to stay on from, but what fehily did particularly between 2 and 3 killed them, christ, even the fly couldn't go early doors, but walsh had the sense not to batter his horse to try and do it.
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Roger, i dont do SFs but i do study sectionals, which tell the story of this race....a dozen or so hoofprints aint going to make any discernible difference to race times
totally agree with that reading, duffy...thought the rides on H Fly and Bobs Worth very similar, Geraghty in particular rode a cracker imo....Zarkandar and poss also Sir Des Champs paid for more aggressive rides (closer to strong/solid pace), the old Francome saying about getting a stayer beat by asking it to do too much too soon |
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Turftrax have supplied sectional times this year, so its worthwhile looking at those to get the answer.
Watching the Champion Hurdle I also got the feeling that jockeys on RoR, Countrywide Flame and Zarkandar were under instruction to try and burn the finish out of HF. It didn't work in the end, but it was noticeable mid race that HF was being made to work hard. Had Grandouet stood up I'd say he'd have won as he was travelling very well during the stage of the race when the pressure was being applied to HF. |
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HF's winning time in 2011 was also significantly slower than that year's Supreme. Coincidence?
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think one of this years novices will win next years champion. Preference to tent.
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all the other races point to it being around the 33L/mile slow on my numbers, so I'll go with that, and give CF a very big number.
CF 125 HF 116 Not my bread and butter, just like to dip in for the 4 days every year. Interesting sport nonetheless. I can remember Back In Front getting a 126 or something at a non-Cheltenham festival meeting a few years back. |